𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jul 28, 2022 23:11:38 GMT -5
"Renaissance" by Beyoncé is the major album release that should impact this chart week.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jul 28, 2022 23:20:47 GMT -5
I want Break my Soul to sneak a week inside top three, please.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 28, 2022 23:22:27 GMT -5
I definitely BMS in the top three this week. The real question is, could it possibly go to #1?
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kalmanta
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Post by kalmanta on Jul 28, 2022 23:25:20 GMT -5
I definitely BMS in the top three this week. The real question is, could it possibly go to #1? Parkwood confirmed that the visuals for Renaissance will come at a later date, so no music video. Top 5 is almost certain, everything higher than top 3 is not realistic atm |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jul 28, 2022 23:26:36 GMT -5
I definitely BMS in the top three this week. The real question is, could it possibly go to #1? Let's see if the streaming bump is big... if she was Drake or Taylor it would be a no brainer. But she's been gone for a while and it's been a while since she had a full on lead single so no idea what will happen. |
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rideordie
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Post by rideordie on Jul 28, 2022 23:28:26 GMT -5
I think a top 3 is doable. No.1 is dependent how well her streaming numbers are.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Diamond Member
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𝓪 𝓽𝓸𝓻𝓽𝓾𝓻𝓮𝓭 𝓹𝓸𝓮𝓽
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jul 28, 2022 23:30:18 GMT -5
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Jul 29, 2022 0:35:59 GMT -5
I've said before that if Break My Soul is going to number one, the music video and Renaissance are both going to have to be released at the same time, so it can get enough of a combined boost from both to go to number one. And if the music video isn't getting released this week, I don't see a possibility (outside of a bigger album boost) where Break My Soul is getting higher than #3 this week.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Jul 29, 2022 0:39:50 GMT -5
Also, say your goodbyes/good riddances to That's What I Want, Super Gremlin, Woman, Bad Habits (if it survives last week), and Enemy.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Jul 29, 2022 1:38:51 GMT -5
Also, say your goodbyes/good riddances to That's What I Want, Super Gremlin, Woman, Bad Habits (if it survives last week), and Enemy. Is there even a small chance Emeny could survive? |
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Jul 29, 2022 1:58:05 GMT -5
Also, say your goodbyes/good riddances to That's What I Want, Super Gremlin, Woman, Bad Habits (if it survives last week), and Enemy. Is there even a small chance Enemy could survive? I give it a 5% chance, and it's probably the one with the highest chance of surviving out of the 5 i mentioned, though given its airplay losses, that's probably more a testament of how the other 4 are 100% going recurrent this week. |
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rideordie
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Post by rideordie on Jul 29, 2022 2:00:59 GMT -5
I don’t know why y’all think a music video would boost a song to no.1 when YouTube has lost its charting appeal for years now.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 29, 2022 2:11:32 GMT -5
I don’t know why y’all think a music video would boost a song to no.1 when YouTube has lost its charting appeal for years now. it's not like the song is at No. 58 on the Hot 100 lol. a video could give a direct streaming boost of a handsome couple million + it could get the people talking. and that's really all that could make or break a song challenging for Top 3's chances at a #1. remember a few summers ago when it came down to a bunch of cassette sales, of all things, between... I wanna say "Bad Guy" and "OTR"? or "Señorita"? one of those. |
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gs
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Post by gs on Jul 29, 2022 3:03:48 GMT -5
For BMS to challenge for #1 (240-250 points), the number it needs is 1.4-1.6 million on Spotify on Friday, assuming no video released midweek
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Jul 29, 2022 3:11:53 GMT -5
US Apple Music ET 03:30
Album #2 Renaissance
Song
#10 Break My Soul
#19 I'm That Girl
#49 Cozy
#57 Alien Superstar
#88 Cuff It
#109 Church Girl
#113 Energy
#185 Plastic Off The Sofa
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kierz7
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Post by kierz7 on Jul 29, 2022 4:51:56 GMT -5
Beyoncé has finally done what I’ve wanted her to do, musically, for a long time.
I needed a Michael Jackson “Off The Wall”, Donna Summer “Bad Girls”, Diana Ross “DIANA”, Chic “C’est Chic”-inspired album from her that combines ‘90’s dance influences and modern R&B/Hip-Hop elements and she’s delivered just that.
Everything from the imagery and the overall style is fantastic and I love almost every song on the album thus far.
In my opinion, Beyoncé has always shone when her voice is at full force and her music is big, loud & brassy which is why ‘B’Day/4’ are her best albums and ‘Crazy In Love/Deja Vu/Greenlight/Freakum Dress/End Of Time’ are some of her greatest songs.
👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿
Hopefully this album has longevity and she scores another hit from it.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 29, 2022 5:20:36 GMT -5
An early look at the predictions (gosh the charts are so dead):
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Post by king_billboard_100 on Jul 29, 2022 5:37:00 GMT -5
Summer Renaissance & Im that girl are really good so i can see them debut in the top 10. Cozy could go top 20
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Post by thegreatdivine on Jul 29, 2022 7:01:08 GMT -5
RENAISSANCE
US Apple Music (after 8 hours):
6. I'M THAT GIRL (+13)
7. BREAK MY SOUL (+3)
12. COZY (+37)
13. ALIEN SUPERSTAR (+44)
20. CUFF IT (+68)
22. CHURCH GIRL (+87)
24. ENERGY (+89)
29. PLASTIC OFF THE SOFA (+156)
38. VIRGO'S GROOVE (NEW)
40. THIQUE (NEW)
46. MOVE (NEW)
47. HEATED (NEW)
49. PURE/HONEY (NEW)
62. AMERICA HAS A PROBLEM (NEW)
66. ALL UP IN YOUR MIND (NEW)
67. SUMMER RENAISSANCE (NEW)
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 29, 2022 7:09:26 GMT -5
US Apple Music - 5am PT / 8am ET
ALBUM - #1 (+1) {SONGS}
#6 (+13) I'M THAT GIRL
#7 (+3) BREAK MY SOUL
#12 (+37) COZY
#13 (+43) ALIEN SUPERSTAR
#20 (+68) CUFF IT
#22 (+87) CHURCH GIRL
#24 (+89) ENERGY
#29 (+156) PLASTIC OFF THE SOFA
#38 (NEW) VIRGO'S GROOVE
#40 (NEW) THIQUE
#46 (NEW) MOVE
#47 (NEW) HEATED
#49 (NEW) PURE/HONEY
#62 (NEW) AMERICA HAS A PROBLEM
#66 (NEW) ALL UP IN YOUR MIND
#67 (NEW) SUMMER RENNAISSANCE EDIT: well thegreatdivine beat me to it while I was typing it up 🫠
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rideordie
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Post by rideordie on Jul 29, 2022 7:38:30 GMT -5
An early look at the predictions (gosh the charts are so dead): How can you already have an early prediction and Friday numbers aren’t even out yet…. |
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Post by dragonslair on Jul 29, 2022 8:56:25 GMT -5
That's why it is called a prediction. You base it off of radio, sales and streaming trends, both for songs and the industry overall over the last few weeks/months. I mean like we know how AIW, FC, RUTH, ABD etc are all going to do. We know Beyoncé will increase in sales, streams and her airplay should increase a bit more than it has increases as stations play it more for album release. How much we don't know, but we do know current streaming service And is a trends, so unless it is outlier, we should know about how It should fare.
I don't get the anger over these types of predictions, do people scream and stomp their feet over predictions made before a sports season is started? Before movies launch? Elections before a vote is cast?
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enwhy
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Post by enwhy on Jul 29, 2022 9:08:35 GMT -5
An early look at the predictions (gosh the charts are so dead): I swear, if As It Was spends another month at #1 after ADT falls below it...It's a fine song but does not deserve 15 weeks at #1. |
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Post by dragonslair on Jul 29, 2022 9:19:42 GMT -5
I think if ADT can stay ahead of AIW this week, it should be able to stay ahead of it. The airplay lead will remain and continue to grow slowly, both will lose streams, but AIW has extra downward pressure from Harry's followup.
If it isn't ahead this week, that means ADT streams fell a lot, and then all bets are off going forward,
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 29, 2022 9:33:13 GMT -5
The thing is, aside from Wait For U on its debut week upsetting As It Was, there hasn’t been an exciting #1 race for the Hot 100. Most weeks, we already know who is going to be #1 even before the tracking week begins, and if not, it’s pretty apparent by mid-week.
Last year, we had LTDO vs Levitating, Jail debuting at #10 (when it was supposed to compete for one of the top spots), and Industry Baby pulling the upset over Stay in October to name a few.
If the race is close, Beyoncé should put out a limited edition digital download with alternative cover of Break My Soul to pull out the #1. I’d like to see history be made with Beyoncé getting a #1 in 4 different age decades: as a teenager, 20s, 30s, and 40s. [Beyonce already has the 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s decades covered when Savage (Remix) went to #1 in 2020.] She would match Elton John (who had #1s in his 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s).
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Post by dragonslair on Jul 29, 2022 9:45:44 GMT -5
So how many streams is 50 points in today's formula? That should help put things into a good perspective,
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Post by nathanalbright on Jul 29, 2022 9:46:29 GMT -5
Let's see those numbers for spotify for Renaissance to see how big of an album bomb we are going to be looking at and whether that album bomb, if there is one, is more towards the top than the bottom of the charts.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 29, 2022 9:47:09 GMT -5
climbing on up on Apple Music.
#4 (+2) I'M THAT GIRL
#7 (=) BREAK MY SOUL
#9 (+3) COZY
#10 (+3) ALIEN SUPERSTAR
#12 (+8) CUFF IT
#15 (+7) CHURCH GIRL
#16 (+8) ENERGY
#23 (+6) PLASTIC OFF THE SOFA
#26 (+12) VIRGO'S GROOVE
#31 (+9) THIQUE
#34 (+12) MOVE
#35 (+12) HEATED
#42 (+7) PURE/HONEY
#44 (+18) AMERICA HAS A PROBLEM
#49 (+17) ALL UP IN YOUR MIND
#50 (+17) SUMMER RENNAISSANCE
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jul 29, 2022 10:00:08 GMT -5
So how many streams is 50 points in today's formula? That should help put things into a good perspective, About 7-7.1M streams. |
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kalmanta
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Post by kalmanta on Jul 29, 2022 10:02:45 GMT -5
Let's see those numbers for spotify for Renaissance to see how big of an album bomb we are going to be looking at and whether that album bomb, if there is one, is more towards the top than the bottom of the charts. Beyoncé is Apple Music centric iirc, and those streams count more than the ones from Spotify/YouTube. Her Spotify debut won’t be as indicative of her overall performance compared to artists like Dua, Lizzo etc. |
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