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Post by nathanalbright on Aug 6, 2022 19:53:26 GMT -5
I'm curious to see if this thread is going to have a meltdown on Monday.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Aug 6, 2022 20:02:50 GMT -5
I'm curious to see if this thread is going to have a meltdown on Monday. It’s Pulse, of course there will be. And as someone who at worst considers the three number one contenders to be decent, and will be fine with any of them being number one, i’ll just sit back and see what unfolds. |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Aug 6, 2022 20:15:21 GMT -5
I think most of our Beyhive users are quite knowledgeable and understand that whatever happens BMS is already a huge win for her. First solo smash in years. First radio smash in over a decade...
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Aug 6, 2022 20:19:02 GMT -5
Hits Daily Double has "BREAK MY SOUL" at #3 for overall audio streaming this week, with 15,538,648. (111% increase) on the YouTube Music weekly chart, "BREAK MY SOUL" clocks in 2.28 million streams with the lyric video. (96% increase) that adds up to around 17.8 million. since "BREAK MY SOUL" officially did 8.8 million last week per Billboard despite 7.3 million audio per HDD and 1.16 million per YouTube, there's a nice 5% difference there, which would bring this week's Billboard streaming total up to an estimated 18.7 million. Problem: that's the number from the song chart, not the video chart, which tends to reflect the numbers YouTube gives Luminate. On there, the song isn't in the top 100 this week, meaning no individual video has over 600,000 plays. Admittedly, since there were multiple videos this week, I took the average divisor from the artist page numbers to the video numbers for the 5 album tracks (1.92) and applied it to Break My Soul in the period to get a best-case number of ~1.4m, which would be a gain, but not nearly as significant of one. I think it's going to come down to margins or something unexpected on the D2C front. |
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lazer
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Post by lazer on Aug 6, 2022 20:21:08 GMT -5
Formation would've been a true smash hit if she hadn't release it exclusively on Tidal. Honestly, that song felt like a #1 hit to me, especially the week it has been released, the Super Bowl performance, and the Lemonade album release. It would've had a great momentum on the charts. The song is definitely the Don't Speak of the 2010s in terms of potential chart success.
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atg
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Post by atg on Aug 6, 2022 20:23:00 GMT -5
I think most of our Beyhive users are quite knowledgeable and understand that whatever happens BMS is already a huge win for her. First solo smash in years. First radio smash in over a decade... Wondering how Formation would’ve done if it got the same treatment when it released initially. The fact that the song still hit the top 10 and was the highest Lemonade song when it was officially released months later definitely showed the potential it could’ve had. |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 6, 2022 20:25:21 GMT -5
Hits Daily Double has "BREAK MY SOUL" at #3 for overall audio streaming this week, with 15,538,648. (111% increase) on the YouTube Music weekly chart, "BREAK MY SOUL" clocks in 2.28 million streams with the lyric video. (96% increase) that adds up to around 17.8 million. since "BREAK MY SOUL" officially did 8.8 million last week per Billboard despite 7.3 million audio per HDD and 1.16 million per YouTube, there's a nice 5% difference there, which would bring this week's Billboard streaming total up to an estimated 18.7 million. Problem: that's the number from the song chart, not the video chart, which tends to reflect the numbers YouTube gives Luminate. On there, the song isn't in the top 100 this week, meaning no individual video has over 600,000 plays. Admittedly, since there were multiple videos this week, I took the average divisor from the artist page numbers to the video numbers for the 5 album tracks (1.92) and applied it to Break My Soul in the period to get a best-case number of ~1.4m, which would be a gain, but not nearly as significant of one. I think it's going to come down to margins or something unexpected on the D2C front. sure, that would still put "BREAK MY SOUL" around the 18 million range though. I'm just not understanding why some people think it's not possible that she could have this many streams while performing subpar on Spotify... Apple Music is the platform with the greater market share in the US, favors Black music more than Spotify (not just rap—R&B artists like SZA and Summer Walker, too), and all Apple Music streams are from paid users since it doesn't offer a freemium option at any capacity. anyone that follows the charts closely would be aware of these things. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 6, 2022 20:29:18 GMT -5
So did sales officially change to /7? Does that mean if BMS doesn't get #1; It's all Billboard's fault?
:)
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Aug 6, 2022 20:30:58 GMT -5
I think most of our Beyhive users are quite knowledgeable and understand that whatever happens BMS is already a huge win for her. First solo smash in years. First radio smash in over a decade... Wondering how Formation would’ve done if it got the same treatment when it released initially. The fact that the song still hit the top 10 and was the highest Lemonade song when it was officially released months later definitely showed the potential it could’ve had. Definitely higher than #10 but would have been shortlived without radio. I do think time will be kind to Formation's reputation, specially over some of her actual radio hits like IIWAB. |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 6, 2022 20:35:38 GMT -5
I think most of our Beyhive users are quite knowledgeable and understand that whatever happens BMS is already a huge win for her. First solo smash in years. First radio smash in over a decade... Wondering how Formation would’ve done if it got the same treatment when it released initially. The fact that the song still hit the top 10 and was the highest Lemonade song when it was officially released months later definitely showed the potential it could’ve had. was thinking about this just earlier because I happened to be watching a video ranking Super Bowl halftime shows. the fact that she dropped it unannounced, performed it on Super Bowl the next day, had an entire skit dedicated to it on SNL (which doesn't happen to any song—some examples I can recall are "drivers license," "Hello," and "Hotline Bling"— all massive hits)... I have no doubt really that "Formation" would have been a Top 5 hit, and possibly a #1 debut. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 6, 2022 20:42:59 GMT -5
Problem: that's the number from the song chart, not the video chart, which tends to reflect the numbers YouTube gives Luminate. On there, the song isn't in the top 100 this week, meaning no individual video has over 600,000 plays. Admittedly, since there were multiple videos this week, I took the average divisor from the artist page numbers to the video numbers for the 5 album tracks (1.92) and applied it to Break My Soul in the period to get a best-case number of ~1.4m, which would be a gain, but not nearly as significant of one. I think it's going to come down to margins or something unexpected on the D2C front. sure, that would still put "BREAK MY SOUL" around the 18 million range though. I'm just not understanding why some people think it's not possible that she could have this many streams while performing subpar on Spotify... Apple Music is the platform with the greater market share in the US, favors Black music more than Spotify (not just rap—R&B artists like SZA and Summer Walker, too), and all Apple Music streams are from paid users since it doesn't offer a freemium option at any capacity. anyone that follows the charts closely would be aware of these things. And none of that automatically ensures a three times multiplied for every such artist. 18m means a 2.6 multiplier. |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 6, 2022 20:47:30 GMT -5
sure, that would still put "BREAK MY SOUL" around the 18 million range though. I'm just not understanding why some people think it's not possible that she could have this many streams while performing subpar on Spotify... Apple Music is the platform with the greater market share in the US, favors Black music more than Spotify (not just rap—R&B artists like SZA and Summer Walker, too), and all Apple Music streams are from paid users since it doesn't offer a freemium option at any capacity. anyone that follows the charts closely would be aware of these things. And none of that automatically ensures a three times multiplied for every such artist. 18m means a 2.6 multiplier. who said anything about ensuring? these are music charts and every song's performance is... UNIQUE! anyways.. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 6, 2022 21:44:54 GMT -5
And none of that automatically ensures a three times multiplied for every such artist. 18m means a 2.6 multiplier. who said anything about ensuring? these are music charts and every song's performance is... UNIQUE! anyways.. So why gkce me a hard time for questioning one predictors numbers? |
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Aug 6, 2022 22:03:43 GMT -5
who said anything about ensuring? these are music charts and every song's performance is... UNIQUE! anyways.. So why gkce me a hard time for questioning one predictors numbers? literally didn't even @ you to begin with... you're giving yourself a hard time by choosing to die on this hill. go argue with a wall idk |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 6, 2022 22:20:35 GMT -5
So why gkce me a hard time for questioning one predictors numbers? literally didn't even @ you to begin with... you're giving yourself a hard time by choosing to die on this hill. go argue with a wall idk You didn't need to @ me. I'm the only one that brought up a three time multiplier, Which btw you totally missed the context on, it was about that one predictor, versus the other predictors and the streams and how one was using almost a three times multiplier. #9 yes I e got no hill to die on, as I never did what you accused me of, |
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Soulsista
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 7, 2022 11:12:35 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:
August 11, 1962
01 02 Breaking Up Is Hard To Do - Neil Sedaka (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 Roses Are Red (My Love) - Bobby Vinton
03 04 The Wah Watusi - The Orlons
04 08 The Loco-Motion - Little Eva
05 05 Ahab, The Arab - Ray Stevens
06 06 Speedy Gonzales - Pat Boone
07 03 Sealed With a Kiss - Brian Hyland
08 13 You'll Lose a Good Thing - Barbara Lynn
09 16 Things - Bobby Darin
10 09 The Stripper - David Rose & His Orchestra
August 12, 1967
01 01 Light My Fire - The Doors (3rd and final week at #1)
02 03 All You Need Is Love - The Beatles
03 02 I Was Made To Love Her - Stevie Wonder
04 09 Pleasant Valley Sunday - The Monkees
05 07 Mercy, Mercy, Mercy - The Buckinghams
06 06 Can't Take My Eyes Off You - Frankie Valli
07 05 A Whiter Shade Of Pale - Procol Harum
08 04 Windy - The Association
09 16 Carrie Ann - The Hollies
10 11 A Girl Like You - The Young Rascals
20 47 Cold Sweat (Part 1) - James Brown
21 71 Ode To Billie Joe - Bobbie Gentry
August 12, 1972
01 01 Alone Again (Naturally) - Gilbert O'Sullivan (3rd of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 Brandy (You're a Fine Girl) - Looking Glass
03 03 (If Loving You Is Wrong) I Don't Want To Be Right - Luther Ingram
04 04 Daddy Don't You Walk So Fast - Wayne Newton
05 06 Where Is The Love - Roberta Flack & Donny Hathaway
06 09 Long Cool Woman (In a Black Dress) - The Hollies
07 15 I'm Still In Love With You - Al Green
08 05 Too Late To Turn Back Now - The Cornelius Brothers & Sister Rose
09 08 How Do You Do - Mouth & MacNeal
10 07 School's Out - Alice Cooper
August 13, 1977
01 01 I Just Want To Be Your Everything - Andy Gibb (3rd of 4 weeks at #1)
02 02 I'm In You - Peter Frampton
03 03 Best Of My Love - The Emotions
04 07 (Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher And Higher - Rita Coolidge
05 05 Do You Wanna Make Love - Peter McCann
06 04 My Heart Belongs To Me - Barbra Streisand
07 08 Easy - The Commodores
08 09 Whatcha Gonna Do - deleted Cruise
09 10 You And Me - Alice Cooper
10 11 You Made Me Believe In Magic - The Bay City Rollers
August 14, 1982
01 01 Eye Of The Tiger - Survivor (4th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 02 Hurts So Good - John Cougar Mellencamp
03 03 Abracadabra - The Steve Miller Band
04 04 Hold Me - Fleetwood Mac
05 05 Hard To Say I'm Sorry - Chicago
06 07 Even The Nights Are Better - Air Supply
07 08 Keep The Fire Burnin' - REO Speedwagon
08 06 Rosanna - Toto
09 12 Vacation - The Go-Go's
10 11 Wasted On The Way - Crosby, Stills & Nash
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Soulsista
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 7, 2022 11:37:12 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:
August 15, 1987
01 01 I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For - U2 (2nd and final week at #1)
02 07 Who's That Girl - Madonna
03 02 I Want Your Sex - George Michael
04 05 Luka - Suzanne Vega
05 11 La Bamba - Los Lobos
06 04 Heart And Soul - T'Pau
07 12 Don't Mean Nothing - Richard Marx
08 08 Cross My Broken Heart - The Jets
09 13 Only In My Dreams - Debbie Gibson
10 06 Rhythm Is Gonna Get You - Gloria Estefan & The Miami Sound Machine
16 37 I Just Can't Stop Loving You - Michael Jackson & Siedah Garrett
August 15, 1992
01 01 End Of The Road - Boyz II Men (1st of 13 weeks at #1)
02 03 Baby-Baby-Baby - TLC
03 01 This Used To Be My Playground - Madonna
04 02 Baby Got Back - Sir Mix-a-Lot
05 05 November Rain - Guns N' Roses
06 07 Just Another Day - Jon Secada
07 08 Life Is a Highway - Tom Cochrane
08 09 Giving Him Something He Can Feel - En Vogue
09 06 Achy Breaky Heart - Billy Ray Cyrus
10 14 Move This - Technotronic feat. Ya Kid K
15 39 Humpin' Around - Bobby Brown
August 16, 1997
01 01 I'll Be Missing You - Puff Daddy & Faith Evans feat. 112 (10th of 11 weeks at #1)
02 02 Mo Money Mo Problems - The Notorious B.I.G. feat. Puff Daddy & Mase
03 03 Quit Playing Games (With My Heart) - The Backstreet Boys
04 04 Semi-Charmed Life - Third Eye Blind
05 05 Bitch - Meredith Brooks
06 NE 2 Become 1 - The Spice Girls
07 06 Not Tonight - Lil Kim feat. Da Brat, Left Eye, Missy Elliott & Angie Martinez
08 07 Do You Know (What It Takes) - Robyn
09 10 Never Make a Promise - Dru Hill
10 09 How Do I Live - LeAnn Rimes
August 10, 2002
01 01 Hot In Herre - Nelly (7th and final week at #1)
02 03 Dilemma - Nelly feat. Kelly Rowland
03 02 Complicated - Avril Lavigne
04 04 I Need a Girl (Part 2) - P. Diddy & Ginuwine feat. Loon, Mario Winans & Tammy Ruggieri
05 07 Just a Friend 2002 - Mario
06 05 Hero - Chad Kroeger feat. Josey Scott
07 08 Down 4 U - Irv Gotti presents The Inc. feat. Ja Rule, Ashanti, Charli Baltimore & Vita
08 11 Heaven - DJ Sammy & Yanou feat. Do
09 06 Without Me - Eminem
10 09 Nothin' - N.O.R.E.
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jasper0102
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Post by jasper0102 on Aug 7, 2022 11:46:10 GMT -5
Seems like the list of songs that are gonna go recurrent is gonna be smaller than some of us expected.
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M5AGTS
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Post by M5AGTS on Aug 7, 2022 11:52:42 GMT -5
Seems like the list of songs that are gonna go recurrent is gonna be smaller than some of us expected. I'm happy about that tbh. Cause that means that Enemy will most likely survive, and hopefully BF. That one's not very likely, but it at least has a chance, which makes me happy. |
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Soulsista
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 7, 2022 12:00:10 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 Flashback:
August 11, 2007
01 23 Beautiful Girls - Sean Kingston (1st of 4 weeks at #1)
02 01 Hey There Delilah - Plain White T's
03 02 Big Girls Don't Cry - Fergie
04 03 Umbrella - Rihanna feat. Jay-Z
05 04 The Way I Are - Timbaland feat. Keri Hilson
06 10 Bartender - T-Pain feat. Akon
07 05 Party Like a Rockstar - Shop Boyz
08 09 Buy U a Drank (Shawty Snappin') - T-Pain feat. Yung Joc
09 11 Make Me Better - Fabolous feat. Ne-Yo
10 08 A Bay Bay - Hurricane Chris
August 11, 2012
01 01 Call Me Maybe - Carly Rae Jepsen (8th of 9 weeks at #1)
02 03 Wide Awake - Katy Perry
03 02 Payphone - Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa
04 06 Whistle - Flo Rida
05 04 Lights - Ellie Goulding
06 05 Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye feat. Kimbra
07 07 Where Have You Been - Rihanna
08 08 Titanium - David Guetta feat. Sia
09 09 Scream - Usher
10 10 Blow Me (One Last Kiss) - P!nk
August 12, 2017
01 01 Despacito - Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber (12th of 16 weeks at #1)
02 02 Wild Thoughts - DJ Khaled feat. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller
03 03 That's What I Like - Bruno Mars
04 04 I'm The One - DJ Khaled feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance The Rapper & Lil Wayne
05 07 Believer - Imagine Dragons
06 05 Unforgettable - French Montana feat. Swae Lee
07 05 Shape Of You - Ed Sheeran
08 08 There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back - Shawn Mendes
09 10 Attention - Charlie Puth
10 09 Body Like a Back Road - Sam Hunt
August 14, 2021
01 04 Stay - The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber (1st of 7 weeks at #1)
02 03 good 4 u - Olivia Rodrigo
03 05 Levitating - Dua Lipa feat. DaBaby
04 01 Butter - BTS
05 07 Bad Habits - Ed Sheeran
06 06 Kiss Me More - Doja Cat feat. SZA
07 02 INDUSTRY BABY - Lil Nas X x Jack Harlow
08 08 MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) - Lil Nas X
09 10 deja vu - Olivia Rodrigo
10 11 Save Your Tears - The Weeknd & Ariana Grande
11 NE Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
14 NE Skate - Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak)
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Aug 7, 2022 14:41:54 GMT -5
August 14, 202114 NE Skate - Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) I totally forgot this was a song, and that it even debuted that high. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 7, 2022 15:42:54 GMT -5
Just think a year ago, nobody would have thought the #1 song was on the way to #4 of all time,
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Aug 7, 2022 17:45:59 GMT -5
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atg
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Post by atg on Aug 7, 2022 18:08:50 GMT -5
Just think a year ago, nobody would have thought the #1 song was on the way to #4 of all time, I think its even more crazier to think a song that was near on its way out and possibly being written off as a flop in its 3rd week initially, ended up being the biggest song of all time. |
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Aug 7, 2022 18:13:13 GMT -5
Just think a year ago, nobody would have thought the #1 song was on the way to #4 of all time, I think its even more crazier to think a song that was near on its way out and possibly being written off as a flop in its 3rd week initially, ended up being the biggest song of all time. heat waves? |
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atg
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Post by atg on Aug 7, 2022 18:17:07 GMT -5
I think its even more crazier to think a song that was near on its way out and possibly being written off as a flop in its 3rd week initially, ended up being the biggest song of all time. heat waves? Oh no i was actually talking about BL. Guess i didn’t mean something from last year but it was still 2-3 years ago which is fairly recent. |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 7, 2022 18:29:17 GMT -5
Just think a year ago, nobody would have thought the #1 song was on the way to #4 of all time, I think its even more crazier to think a song that was near on its way out and possibly being written off as a flop in its 3rd week initially, ended up being the biggest song of all time. Temporarily #1 :) |
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ephelia
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Post by ephelia on Aug 8, 2022 0:27:47 GMT -5
I think its even more crazier to think a song that was near on its way out and possibly being written off as a flop in its 3rd week initially, ended up being the biggest song of all time. Temporarily #1  I highly doubt they go back on making BL the GOAT even if they "should" - they put too much publicity into it. They likely will lower the multiplier for the weeks since then though |
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Post by dragonslair on Aug 8, 2022 1:54:56 GMT -5
Temporarily #1 I highly doubt they go back on making BL the GOAT even if they "should" - they put too much publicity into it. They likely will lower the multiplier for the weeks since then though I'd agree. However :) the big problem is they'll do it by year. So that means they'd Need to wait until 2022 started, so that'll still leave too many songs from 21-22 too high, I have Not done the math, I'm too lazy, but I assume because it is close with #2, r the losing the points if they adjusted starting 2021 would still cost BL #1. if they do it mid year when BL left well that's just too blatant manipulation. it is a mess for them. One of two, holiday songs being the other upcoming problem, glad I'm not them and needing to sort it lol. |
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ephelia
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Post by ephelia on Aug 8, 2022 2:51:37 GMT -5
I highly doubt they go back on making BL the GOAT even if they "should" - they put too much publicity into it. They likely will lower the multiplier for the weeks since then though I'd agree. However the big problem is they'll do it by year. So that means they'd Need to wait until 2022 started, so that'll still leave too many songs from 21-22 too high, I have Not done the math, I'm too lazy, but I assume because it is close with #2, r the losing the points if they adjusted starting 2021 would still cost BL #1. if they do it mid year when BL left well that's just too blatant manipulation. it is a mess for them. One of two, holiday songs being the other upcoming problem, glad I'm not them and needing to sort it lol. Nothing says they have to do it exactly by year - in fact at least a couple of the most recent multiplier change dates have not been. Tbh I wouldn't put it past Billboard to just change it on the week immediately after BL went recurrent. |
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