2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Drake (just need an album bomb from him)
2. No.
3. Yes. Miley Cyrus.
4. No.
5. No.

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, February 2)
So great to see so many participants for the first round! Hoping a lot of you stick around, as I think we have some more really interesting questions for this week!

Q1: Flowers #1 Run
The BIG story of 2023 so far is “Flowers,” Miley Cyrus’s breakup track which is quickly on its way to becoming her most successful song ever released! Many have compared this to “driver’s license” due to the similar theme and January release. That being said, Olivia’s song fizzled out a little quicker than many expected. Is it possible that songs about celebrity drama have a shorter shelf life, due to how quickly people’s attention will move on? Does “Flowers” have enough behind it to standalone as a long-running hit?
How many weeks at #1 will “Flowers” achieve in total? (Thru 12/30 chart)
A: Fewer than 6 weeks
B: 6 - 9 weeks
C: 10 - 13 weeks
D: 14+ weeks

Q2: TikTok Song vs Song
While 2020 was the year of the TikTok hit, in 2022, it seemed like TikTok was more reactive to songs which were already blowing up. But this week, we’re looking at 2 songs which began to gain momentum thanks to TikTok trends. The first is “Bloody Mary” by Lady Gaga, originally released in 2011, which blew up a couple months ago due to a viral trend around the Netflix show Wednesday. The other song is Coi Leray’s “Players” which went TikTok viral before its release in November 2022, and eventually powered a big dance trend thanks to a club remix of the song. Now, the two very different songs are climbing up the Hot 100 with solid streaming and growing radio play. Which one can peak the highest?
Paths so far
Bloody Mary: 68 - 62 - 57 - 55
Players: 98 - 78 - 54 - 49
Which song will peak the highest: “Bloody Mary” or “Players”? (Thru 12/30 chart)

Q3: Year-End Queen
There are a bunch of huge songs right now that could viably become the #1 year-end. This is a really refreshing contrast to last year, where “Heat Waves” just won out by default. On the top, “Flowers”, “Anti-Hero”, and “Kill Bill” all look like strong contenders, and the best-performing among them may depend on longevity. Then there’s “Creepin” and “Unholy”, which while less likely, could still have a shot with long top-ten runs. Or maybe something could rise up from a bit lower, and take the crown: “Just Wanna Rock”, “Escapism”, or something else. It’s early in the year, and a lot can still happen.
Which currently-charting* song will place the highest on Billboard’s 2023 Year-End chart?
*As of the 1/28 chart: www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/2023-01-28/

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[rnb]

all of these are such hard questions ughhh but we will try!
1: 10-13 (probably will stop at exactly 10)
2: players cuz i think radio will be more generous to it in the future and make it have more longevity, and also it’s newer ofc
3: kill bill, but flowers will probably be RIGHT behind it

[gikem]

1. 10-13. I’m envisioning a Shape Of You-esque run here.
2. Players. It’s newer, it’s doing better on streaming, and it’s crossed over to more radio formats as of current.
3. Flowers. It’s just too strong to overtake right now, and I see it lasting longer than Kill Bill, which I think will fade once we get into the summer.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Q1: Flowers #1 Run

How many weeks at #1 will “Flowers” achieve in total? (Thru 12/30 chart)
B: 6 - 9 weeks

Q2: TikTok Song vs Song

Which song will peak the highest: “Bloody Mary” or “Players”? (Thru 12/30 chart)

“Players”

Q3: Year-End Queen

Which currently-charting* song will place the highest on Billboard’s 2023 Year-End chart?

“Flowers”

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oh boo. I missed the week 1 5 questions

[jayhawk1117]

1. C - 11 weeks

2. Players. I can honestly see it legging it out until it’s peak in late spring

3. Flowers by a lot. Top 5 YE MINIMUM

[M5AGTS]

1. C
2. Players
3. Flowers

[kindofbiased]

1. B, could definitely see it lasting longer though
2. Players
3. Flowers

[fengyu]

Q1: Flowers #1 Run
B: 6-9 weeks

Q2: TikTok Song vs Song
Players

Q3: Year-End Queen
Flowers

[renfield75]

1. C (I'll say 10 weeks)
2. Players, it has more momentum
3. Flowers

[85la]

1. B, 6-9 weeks.
2. Players. It would be great to see Bloody Mary, but it's older and people are probably already too familiar with it, and Players is fresher and ascending at a more rapid pace, so I'm going with that.
3. Flowers

[1^∞]

1. C
2. Players
3. Flowers

[jasper0102]

1. C (sticking with my belief Flowers is gonna get a God's Plan/Shape of You run)
2. Players (it's already ahead of Bloody Mary on the Hot 100 rn, and i don't think that's changing)
3. Flowers

[joshtheking]

1. B- I think it'll get 9 weeks
2. Players- Yeah this seems right. I think Players could go top 30 but I don't see Bloody Mary getting that far
3. Kill Bill- Actually going to change to this, i agree with enwhy

[mms82]

1: B
2: Players
3: Kill Bill

[enwhy]

Don't know why everyone's picking the same things, I think these are all way more up in the air then y'all think! But hey, I'll go for some upset picks.

1. B: 6-9 weeks - I actually see this one only getting 6 or 7 weeks at #1. Flowers is a fine song, but it's nothing especially memorable IMO. I mean it's huge on TikTok, but I don't see it having a lasting cultural impact - people will move on from this pretty quickly once its moment is over. And in more practical terms, it's starting to bleed streams and its radio is going to peak in February, really fast for such a new song.

2. Bloody Mary - OKAY! How to justify this? Well, Players had like 2 weeks of TikTok virality and has already seemingly peaked on Spotify outside the Top 50 (nowhere to be found on AM). Bloody Mary has similar streaming figures (predictors had both at ~6M last week) but has been around for longer, which IMO indicates it should hold on for longer. So the difference will probably come down to radio play. According to HitPredictor, Bloody Mary does much better with pop listeners, whereas Players is only doing well on Rythmic. Once both label pushes runs out, Bloody Mary is the song which audiences actually want to hear.

3. Kill Bill - I actually strongly believe this is the right pick. As I mentioned above, I think Flowers will fall off pretty quickly (drivers license-type run), thanks in large part to its radio peaking before Kill Bill. Kill Bill has been much more stable on streaming over the last month or so, declining very slowly. This is the song which will still be on the charts in December, as we wait for Christmas songs to finally take it out.

[enwhy]

Also, updated the chart runs for Bloody Mary and Players in Q2 to reflect the latest week.

Paths so far
Bloody Mary: 68 - 62 - 57 - 55
Players: 98 - 78 - 54 - 49

[Deleted]

1. B
2. I’ll go against the masses and say Bloody Mary (no pun intended)
3. Kill Bill

[ephelia]

Q1: Flowers #1 Run
B: 6 - 9 weeks

Q2: TikTok Song vs Song
Players

Q3: Year-End Queen
Flowers

[atg]

1. B (I feel like something else that is big will come out and cut this short of 10+ weeks)

2. Players

3. Kill Bill (It has that advantage of having more weeks than Flowers and i think it could last longer throughout the year as the latter seems like a moment that’s only hot now like a drivers license or Hello, and probably would fade away by at least late summer).

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. C
2. Players
3. Kill Bill

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, February 9)

Q1: Escapism vs CUFF IT
Two Pulse fan-favorite songs about partying currently sit in the top 30. That’s where the similarities end, however. Beyonce’s upbeat disco-inspired dance track “CUFF IT” has already spent 25 weeks on the chart, starting with a viral TikTok dance trend last year. While its streaming has declined, radio is holding this near the top 10. On the other hand, British singer Raye’s much darker song “Escapism” is a compelling track about trying to party through a brutal heartbreak, and all of the accompanying emotions. Raye is a much newer artist, and this track comes off her debut album. While TikTok virality powered this one on streaming initially, she will likely need strong radio support to continue to climb the Hot 100.
Streaming runs - Last 4 wks (Bold = Peak so far):
CUFF IT: - 10 - 13 - 17 - 15
Escapism: - 43 - 28 - 22 - 22
Which song will ultimately have the highest Hot 100 peak: “CUFF IT” or “Escapism”? (Thru 12/30 chart)

Q2: Rihanna again
Last year, Rihanna finally released some music for the first time in 5+ years. Unfortunately for R9 hopefuls, she released a pair of soundtrack ballads. The rumor mill has been active lately though, as some sources are saying Rihanna is planning to release new music after her Superbowl halftime show next Sunday. The show is sponsored by Apple Music this year, which is also interesting. Let’s see what Pulse thinks: will she release new music, and will it debut at #1?
a) Will Rihanna release new music by next week? (by 2/18)
b) Will a Rihanna song debut at #1 this year? (Thru 12/30 chart)

Q3: Ice Spice
Ice Spice has been one of the biggest stories in music these past few months. Her song “Munch” went viral last year and received a lot of critical attention for Ice’s unique flow. Last week, she released her debut EP and charted on the Hot 100 for the first time with “Gangsta Boo” (#83). With all the social media buzz, will Ice Spice see any chart success in 2023?
Will Ice Spice chart in the top 40 of the Hot 100 this year? (Thru 12/30 chart)

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jasper0102

[kindofbiased]

1. Cuff It, realistically I see Escapism peaking around #15. Would love to be wrong though I really want it to go top 10

2a. no
2b. no :(

3. If Boy's A Liar keeps up this streaming momentum it's gonna be top 40 really soon so yes absolutely

[Au$tin]

1. Cuff It
2a. No
2b. No
3. Yes

[1^∞]

1. Cuff It
2a. No
2b. No
3. Yes

[cowboy13]

1 Cuff It
2 Yes, Yes
3 Yes

[annoymous1]

1.CUFF IT
2a. No
2b. No
3. Yes

[renfield75]

1. Cuff It
2a. No
2b. No
3. Yes

[rnb]

1. escapism
2a: no
2b: yes cuz i think she’s releasing an album soon
3: yes