2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[enwhy]

Tagging those who have yet to respond...6 hours left!

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
ephelia
kindofbiased
jayhawk1117
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
tekkenguy
neel
Fears in the Fire
†ealsünset
🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾
aznsinger
jhitwild

and my predictions:
1. D: 25 - 30.9 - Will definitely be lower than Vampire but not that much lower imo. The snippet sounds upbeat so could be big. Also FINALLY some different subject matter? maybe? vampire was not really too far off thematically from sour.

2a. D: #11 - 40 - Wouldn't be super shocked to be wrong, but V is less of a big name than Jungkook or Jimin. Plus the music sounds less poppy (1 of the songs is already out). And remember, SUGA also had a less-than-stellar Hot 100 debut (although he made the confusing decision to rebrand & rename himself right before releasing his solo debut album)
2b. D: 50 - 99k - Seems like a safe bet. If there's no coordinated push, he may not get to 50k.

3. 300k - This is it everyone, the album where everyone finally realizes that Drake hasn't been that good for the better part of a decade. Probably not, but I don't think he'll do better than Her Loss, which was basically fanservice for Drake stans.

[Fears in the Fire]

1. E
2a. C
2b. D
3. 400k

[neel]

1. D
2. B
3. 400k

[ephelia]

Q1: bad idea right?
E: Under 25M

Q2: V
a) E: Below Top 40
b) E: 0 - 49k

Q3: For All The Dogs
600K

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Q1: D
Q2a: B
Q2b: C
Q3: 500k

[enwhy]

First, a quick scoreboard update, featuring a lot of points thanks to Utopia.

Mar 30: Will an artist besides Morgan Wallen have a #1 country song in 2023?
Unfortunately,, “Try That In A Small Town” nabbed a week at #1 before tumbling down the charts. If it’s any consolation to those who answered “No”, Luke Combs will probably get his #1 in the next few weeks anyway. A total of 4 of 16, or 25% got this one right. Congrats to 85la enwhy jasper0102 mms82 for guessing correctly. Each wins 40 points!

Jun 15: a) Will the soundtrack for “The Idol” or “Barbie” have more total Top 50 hits?
Barbie blew The Idol out of the water in terms of commercial success. In retrospect, it’s funny that we were even comparing the two. Still though, this one was close - by my count, Barbie wins 3 - 2. A total of 13 of 21, or 62% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la 💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓 Fears in the Fire fengyu jasper0102 kindofbiased mms82 neel rainie rnb †ealsünset tekkenguy for guessing correctly. Each wins 16 points!

Jun 15: b) Will the soundtrack for “The Idol” or “Barbie” have the highest-peaking Hot 100 hit?
This one was a clear win for Barbie, which earned multiple Top 10 hits (Nicki/Ice & Dua). A total of 17 of 21, or 81% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓 🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾 enwhy fengyu joshtheking kindofbiased mms82 neel rainie renfield75 rnb †ealsünset tekkenguy for guessing correctly. Each wins 12 points!

Jul 27: How many Post Malone songs will chart in the Top 40 next week?
Post’s “AUSTIN” came and went without making much noise commercially - even compared to the underperformance we were expecting. Still, “Chemical” and “Mourning” rebound into the Top 40 thanks to solid airplay, with the “Dial Drunk” remix barely missing the mark. A total of 4 of 19, or 21% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ enwhy fengyu joshtheking for guessing correctly. Each wins 48 points!

Jul 27: A) Where will the highest charting Travis Scott song chart on the Hot 100 on the “Utopia” release week?
Surprisingly, Travis’s collab with Drake only earned a #3 debut. There wasn’t much of an effort made of the label’s part to secure the #1 though, and the focus seemed more on the overall promo and success of the album. A total of 13 of 19, or 68% got this one right by guessing in the #2-5 range. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 greggpo jasper0102 joshtheking mms82 neogale renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 15 points!

Jul 27: B) Astroworld opened with 537,000 units on the Billboard 200. How many will Utopia open with?
Travis was really close to matching Astroworld! He wound up earning 496k units, a very impressive total for 2023. Also much higher than the majority of us expected. A total of 4 of 19, or 21% got this one right by guessing in the 400-536k range. Congrats to enwhy 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 joshtheking Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 48 points!

And that’s all we have for now. Time for another 2-week update on the Pick 3 artist game!

• Travis Scott (enwhy , ephelia , @imhappy259, rainie ) was a risky pick to release in 2923, but this week it paid off. The release of Utopia gives him one of the biggest updates of 2023, with +317 added to his total. Travis moves to #3 overall with 342 points.
• The Weeknd (khan ) was not a popular pick for this year, with lots of talk of overexposure. What many of us didn’t see coming was his becoming one of the most popular featured artists. “K-POP” (+37) and “Circus Maximus” (+15) show the chart power of a Weeknd feature. He gains +54 in total moves to #16 overall with 84 points.
• Post Malone (85la , enwhy , kindofbiased , renfield75 , fengyu , @imhappy259, joshtheking , rainie , rnb , annoymous1 , JukeboxJacob , mms82 , Rose "Payola" Nylund ) probably had a disappointing album bomb relative to what we were expecting post-”Chemical”. In fact, his leader for the week “Dial Drunk” (+16) isn’t even off his album! Still, he gains +45 in total moves to #18 overall with 73 points.
• Drake (joshtheking , mms82 , 1^∞ , Au$tin , Baby Yoda Hot100Fan , ephelia , rnb ) may never release his new album, but he also may never leave the charts. His various features did well enough to earn him +45 points, bumping himself to #9 overall with 143 points.

Here are the artist-by-artist point totals to-date (25+ pts):
1) 801 (+25) - Morgan Wallen (Selected by rainie, renfield75)
2) 466 (+17) - Taylor Swift (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, big2000, gikem, kindofbiased, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 1^∞, 85la, enwhy, fengyu, jayhawk1117, renfield75, imhappy259, jasper0102, joshtheking, mms82, rainie)
3) 342 (+317) - Travis Scott (Selected by enwhy, ephelia, imhappy259, rainie)
4) 182 (+23) - Ice Spice (Selected by jasper0102, rnb, jayhawk1117)
5) 180 (+13) - Luke Combs (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, mms82, renfield75, ephelia)
6) 173 (+11) - Peso Pluma (Selected by 1^∞)
7) 170 (+42) - Bad Bunny (Selected by khan, jasper0102)
8) 156 (+1) - Lil Uzi Vert (Selected by 1^∞, joshtheking)
9) 143 (+45) - Drake (Selected by joshtheking, mms82, 1^∞, Au$tin, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, ephelia, rnb)
10) 125 (+9) - Latto (Selected by Rose Wintur)
11) 104 (+7) - Grupo Frontera (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan)
12) 100 (+10) - Olivia Rodrigo (Selected by 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 85la, atg, Au$tin, enwhy, ephelia, fengyu, imhappy259, jayhawk1117, khan, mms82, rainie, renfield75, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, joshtheking, kindofbiased, rnb, big2000)
13) 94 (+4) - J. Cole (Selected by gikem, atg)
14) 89 (+16) - Young Thug (Selected by 1^∞)
15) 85 (+12) - Nicki Minaj (Selected by 1^∞, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, fengyu, imhappy259, jasper0102, 85la, annoymous1, kindofbiased, mms82, renfield75, Rose Wintur, 🖤𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓, joshtheking, khan)
16) 84 (+54) - The Weeknd (Selected by khan)
17) 74 (+15) - Future (Selected by annoymous1, joshtheking, khan, rainie, jasper0102, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, rnb)
18) 73 (+45) - Post Malone (Selected by 85la, enwhy, kindofbiased, renfield75, fengyu, imhappy259, joshtheking, rainie, rnb, annoymous1, JukeboxJacob, mms82, Rose Wintur)
19) 59 (+32) - 21 Savage (Selected by 85la, joshtheking, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, atg, imhappy259, kindofbiased, rnb)
20) 56 (+2) - Ed Sheeran (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, ephelia)
21) 52 (+24) - Dua Lipa (Selected by atg, Au$tin, imhappy259, 85la)
22) 52 (+0) - Lil Baby (Selected by khan, mms82)
23) 48 (+2) - Miley Cyrus (Selected by 1^∞, jasper0102, rnb, big2000, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, fengyu, khan, kindofbiased)
24) 48 (+1) - Tyler the Creator (Selected by rainie, kindofbiased)
25) 35 (+7) - Cardi B (Selected by fengyu, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, renfield75)
26) 34 (+4) - Bailey Zimmerman (Selected by 85la, annoymous1, Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, fengyu, imhappy259, jasper0102, joshtheking, mms82, rainie, renfield75, rnb, kindofbiased)
27) 34 (+0) - YoungBoy NBA (Selected by imhappy259)
28) 29 (+15) - SZA (Selected by Rose Wintur)
29) 25 (+0) - Rihanna (Selected by ephelia, jayhawk1117)


Click here to see full selections & scores
And here’s the scoreboard update! Lots of movement this week, with ephelia, imhappy, and myself moving up several spots in the Top 10.

Scoreboard

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thu, Aug 17)
Bringing back an old game for this week: Artist vs Artist! Your job is to guess who will spend more time in the Top 20 from now (8/26 chart) through the end of the year (12/30 chart). As usual, multiple songs count for multiple “points”

Q1: Olivia vs Taylor
Taylor Swift is having the biggest year of her career. “Midnights” lead the Album charts for double-digit weeks. Then the Eras Tour happened, which is well on its way to being the biggest tour of all time. Then “Cruel Summer” was resurrected from its pre-COVID grave, nearly climbing all the way to #1. Then “1989 TV” was announced, selling some absurd number of physical copies on its first day. It’s almost tiring to talk about at this point - can anyone compete?

Olivia Rodrigo is a relative newcomer who had one of the biggest debut years of all time in 2021. Now, she’s making her much-awaited return to music after a long absence. “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right?” have made a splash, with the former debuting at #1. Olivia has the advantage of all-new songs (vs Taylor’s re-recordings), which may lend themselves better to chart longevity.

Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Taylor or Olivia? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)


Q2: Wallen vs Combs
Morgan Wallen is still coming off one of the most commercially successful country album eras of all time. “One Thing At A Time” is still dominating streaming, “Last Night” is still leading the Hot 100 with his label starting to push another single (either “Everything i Love” or “Thinkin’ Bout Me”) to radio. Can “Last Night” stick it out in the Top 20 through the end of the year?

Luke Combs’ “Fast Car” cover is now one of the biggest songs of his career. He is very close to the #1 spot, and his team is really pushing for it now. To beat Wallen though, “Fast Car” will probably have to outlast “Last Night” on streaming. That may be a tough ask.

Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Morgan Wallen or Luke Combs? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)


Q3: Nicki vs Doja
Nicki Minaj is having a big year, with several singles charting high thanks to her fervent fanbase. She’s had a lot of success working with Ice Spice, and “Barbie World” currently sits in the Top 10. Nicki has an album planned to release this year, and it’s expected that her team will pull out all the stops to ensure its success.

Doja has stated “Nicki” as her biggest influence. Like Nicki, Doja has gone a little off the rails this year in a way that has fans wondering what’s real and what’s a promotional tactic. Also like Nicki, Doja’s attempting to pivot away from her pop-friendly sound, with mixed results so far. Still, Doja is a radio darling and will surely have a few lighter sounding songs on her to-be-released album later this year.

Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Doja or Nicki? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
renfield75
rainie
jasper0102
joshtheking
mms82
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
1^∞
ephelia
kindofbiased
fengyu
85la
enwhy
rnb
khan
jayhawk1117
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
Rose "Payola" Nylund
atg
annoymous1
💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
tekkenguy
neel
Fears in the Fire
†ealsünset
neogale
imbuemyblue
🅳🅸🆂🅲🅾
aznsinger
jhitwild
greggpo

[Fears in the Fire]

1. Taylor Swift
2. Morgan Wallen
3. Nicki Minaj

[joshtheking]

1. Taylor
2. Luke
3. Nicki

[fengyu]

1. Taylor Swift (i think this will be the closest though)
2. Morgan Wallen
3. Nicki Minaj

[jasper0102]

1. Taylor Swift, fully expect the 2 of them to stay in the top 20 for the rest of the year (atleast until Christmas music returns), but Taylor will win just because she’ll have more songs than Olivia, ntm 1989 (TV).
2. Morgan Wallen, once Thinkin Bout Me gets a full radio push it’s over.
3. Nicki Minaj

[1^∞]

1. Taylor
2. Wallen :/
3. Nicki

[mms82]

1. Taylor Swift
2. Morgan Wallen
3. Nicki Minaj

[renfield75]

1.Taylor
2.Morgan
3.Nicki

[imbuemyblue]

1. Taylor
2. Morgan
3. Nicki

[annoymous1]

1. Taylor Swift
2. Morgan Wallen
3. Nicki Minaj

[khan]

1. Taylor Swift - She'll just have more songs.

2. Morgan Wallen - This genuinely might be a tie. I wouldn't be surprised if they both only keep their current top ten hits in the range for the rest of the year.

3. Nicki Minaj - I do feel like PTTR might make it eventually, though.

[neogale]

Q1: Olivia Rodrigo
Q2: Morgan Wallen
03: Nicki Minaj

[enwhy]

Aug 15, 2023 13:06:28 GMT -5 khan said:

1. Taylor Swift - She'll just have more songs.

2. Morgan Wallen - This genuinely might be a tie. I wouldn't be surprised if they both only keep their current top ten hits in the range for the rest of the year.

3. Nicki Minaj - I do feel like PTTR might make it eventually, though.

FYI it's top 20 not top 10, so Paint The Town Red actually may start off there if the streaming stays relatively stable (debuted at #15 this week).

Also for Wallen vs Combs, keep in mind that the holiday song surge is likely to knock at least 1 of them out of the Top 20!

[greggpo]

1, Taylor
2. Morgan
3. Nicki

[enwhy]

These answers have been surprisingly lopsided so far! I thought these were all fairly even, but hey let me make a case for the underdogs.

my picks:
1. Olivia - Presumably there will be a 3rd single, that will debut high. Vampire seems destined for #1 on Pop and another 10-15 weeks in the Top 20. Her album bomb IMO will likely land a LOT of songs in the Top 20. Taylor has Cruel Summer (probably will last through the Holidays) and Karma (has another month until it's out of the Top 20). 1989 TV will obviously be a massive album bomb. But honestly, I think Olivia may win this because she releases earlier. Her singles will have more time to hang around the Top 20.

2. Combs - Probably the toughest pick to defend of these 3. That being said, "Last Night" is really starting to decline now. Morgan's team has chosen to promote "Everything I Love", which has no chance at Top 20 given its low streaming. So I think this really comes down to "Last Night" vs "Fast Car" - which one will fall off the Top 20 first? And honestly, at this point in its run, I think Fast Car has the better chance of holding on longer.

3. Doja - Why is this one unanimous for Nicki? She's not going to have a crazy album bomb. Barbie World is on the back end of its run. And Doja just proved with PTTR that 1) she is not afraid of releasing radio-ready music still, and 2) she can pull off relatively high debuts. I'm less sure of Nicki's ability to have a stable, lasting hit right now. Outside of her 2 collabs with Ice Spice, everything else has been pretty much driven by crazy stan sales. Far less sustainable from my pov.

[85la]

1. Taylor. I would probably want Olivia to have it more, because she could probably use it more at this point in her career, but with how massive 1989 TV is likely to be and her other songs still going strong, I think Taylor will take it.
2. Morgan. I've learned now not to bet against him.
3. Doja. Also surprised no one else has picked her! She's showing signs of faltering, but imo still has a stronger chance than Nicki.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Q1: Olivia vs Taylor
Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Taylor or Olivia? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)
Taylor

Q2: Wallen vs Combs
Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Morgan Wallen or Luke Combs? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)
Morgan

Q3: Nicki vs Doja
Who will spend more weeks in the Top 20 through December: Doja or Nicki? (8/26 - 12/30 chart)
Doja

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Q1: Taylor Swift (Olivia would do fine, but with 1989 TV approaching I don't think she's having a longer time at the Top 20)
Q2: Morgan Wallen
Q3: Doja Cat

[kindofbiased]

1. Olivia (but I wouldn't be surprised if both of them spend the rest of the year in the top 20)
2. Wallen
3. Nicki

[rainie]

1. t swizzler
2. wallen
3. doja

[rnb]

1. taylor
2. wallen
3. nicki

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. Taylor Swift
2. Morgan Wallen
3. Doja Cat

[ephelia]

Q1: Olivia vs Taylor
Olivia Rodrigo

Q2: Wallen vs Combs
Luke Combs

Q3: Nicki vs Doja
Doja Cat

[neel]

Q1: Olivia vs Taylor
Olivia Rodrigo, unless they decide to push another single from "Midnights" for the fall.

Q2:
Luke Combs

Q3:
Nicki Minaj