2023 Predictors Cup - This week: 4X POINTS FINAL WEEK

[kindofbiased]

1. No
2. Morgan Wallen is making it very close but 2022
3. Until I Found You, I think Going Going Gone could make the top 20 this week because of Luke Combs' album and I'm still optimistic about Escapism

[ephelia]

Q1: Country at #1
No

Q2: 2021 vs 2022
2021

Q3: Blackjack
Escapism.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. No
2. 2021
3. Escapism

[Deleted]

Noooo I completely forgot abt this. I’ll put my predictions in anyway, just for fun.

1. No
2. 2021
3. Until I Found You

[fengyu]

Q1: Country at #1
No

Q2: 2021 vs 2022
2022

Q3: Blackjack
Until I Found You

[enwhy]

FYI I'll count those last couple late submissions, since last week's questions were more long-term anyway.


This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, April 6)

Q1: Next Top 10
The back half of the Top 10 has been a revolving door lately. While this year’s big hits are bigger than 2022’s were, consumption is still fairly low outside of the Top 5. This means there’s lots of room for new hits to enter the Top 10. A number of songs on the Hot 100 are currently vying to be the next Top 10 hits - which one will be the first?
Here is a selection of currently-charting songs which are not too far from the top 10. This is to help you out, but you’re not limited to just these:
“Under The Influence” - Chris Brown: #14 Last Week, #12 Peak, Predicted -2% this week
“Favorite Song” - Toosi: #21 LW, #21 Peak, +10% TW
“Sure Thing” - Miguel: #23 LW, #23 Peak, +8% TW
“Escapism” - Raye & 070 Shake: #24 LW, #22 Peak, -1% TW
“Eyes Closed” - Ed Sheeran: NEW, Projected to debut around #20-30
“Heart Like A Truck” - Lainey Wilson, #35 LW, #29 Peak, +6% TW
What currently-charting song (as of 4/8) will reach the Top 10 next? (Thru 12/30 chart)

Q2: Queen of the Runner Ups
There’s no doubt that SZA’s “Kill Bill” is one of the biggest smash hits of 2023. It debuted in the Top 3 last December, and has only spent 2 weeks outside of it, both during the Christmas weeks. However, Kill Bill has still fallen short of the #1 spot - in fact, SZA has spent 7 weeks at #2. If she manages 4 more, she would have the record for the most weeks at #2 without topping the chart. Here are the top 5, by weeks at #2:
10 Weeks: “Waiting for a Girl Like You” - Foreigner
10 Weeks: “Work It” - Missy Elliot
9 Weeks: "I Love You Always Forever" - Donna Lewis
9 Weeks: "You're Still the One" - Shania Twain
9 Weeks: "Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee
Will SZA tie or break the record (10 weeks) for most weeks at #2 without hitting #1? (Thru 12/30 Chart)
*If she gets 10 weeks at #2 and subsequently earns a week at #1, this would still count as tying the record

Q3: You Know It’s Not The Same…
Credit to Baby Yoda Hot100Fan for suggesting this one. “As It Was” will earn its 52nd week on the chart this week (4/8). While it’s finally slipped out of the Top 10, its numbers have held very stable for a year-old song. For reference, both its airplay and streaming right now are about the same as Taylor’s current single “Lavender Haze.” Now eligible for super-recurrancy (below #25 for songs in their 52nd+ week), the big question is how long can Harry hold on?
Exactly how many weeks will “As It Was” earn on the Hot 100? (Thru 12/30 Chart)
*Worth 100 pts if you get it exactly, or 25 for the closest prediction

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
1^∞
85la
annoymous1
atg
Au$tin
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
big2000
born
cowboy13
enwhy
ephelia
fengyu
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
gikem
@imhappy259
jasper0102
jayhawk1117
joshtheking
JukeboxJacob
khan
kindofbiased
M5AGTS
mms82
Music Fan
rainie
renfield75
rnb
Rose "Payola" Nylund

[enwhy]

My predictions:
1. “Sure Thing” by Miguel - I think this one could be headed straight to #1 on radio, and that should be enough for a top 10 peak relatively soon.
2. Yes - Morgan Wallen looks set to block SZA for at least a couple weeks. It's going to be very close, and any kind of sales campaign would probably earn SZA the #1...but I think she'll at least tie this record.
3. 66 Weeks - All in all, this is a pretty random guess. But 66 weeks would take us out to late summer, which feels pretty realistic. Not hard to imagine an album bomb taking this out sooner though.

[rnb]

1. sure thing absolutely no question
2. yes unfortunately
edit: she’s actually predicted to go #1 this week (!!!!!!) so I am gonna change my answer to no!
3. 59 weeks

[fengyu]

Q1: Next Top 10
Favorite Song

Q2: Queen of the Runner Ups
No

Q3: You Know It’s Not The Same…
58

[kindofbiased]

1. Favorite Song
2. No
3. 62 weeks

[renfield75]

1.Favorite Song
2.No...I feel like she'll either get to number one first or will be held at 3 or below by songs debuting above or overtaking her before she racks up 10+ weeks
3.61

[mms82]

1.Favorite Song
2.No
3.60

[jasper0102]

1. Sure Thing
2. Yes
3. 65 weeks (also think You Proof is gonna have similar longevity lmao)

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, April 6)

Q1: Next Top 10
What currently-charting song (as of 4/8) will reach the Top 10 next? (Thru 12/30 chart)
"favorite song"

Q2: Queen of the Runner Ups
Will SZA tie or break the record (10 weeks) for most weeks at #2 without hitting #1? (Thru 12/30 Chart)
*If she gets 10 weeks at #2 and subsequently earns a week at #1, this would still count as tying the record
No, I think she'll either get to #1 before then, or new competition will push her down and keep her out of the top 2, preventing her from breaking this record.

Q3: You Know It’s Not The Same…
Exactly how many weeks will “As It Was” earn on the Hot 100? (Thru 12/30 Chart)
*Worth 100 pts if you get it exactly, or 25 for the closest prediction
71 weeks

[annoymous1]

1. Favorite Song
2. No
3. 63

[1^∞]

1. Eyes Closed
2. No I think it'll either drop out of the top 2 sadly or they'll try to get a week at #1 before then
3. 59

[atg]

1. Favorite Song (although i find it funny that UTI is trying so desperately hard to crack the top 10 but it can’t while everything around it is with ease😂).

2. I think it will just fall short despite it getting a week at #1 or not

3. 62 Weeks

[💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓]

1. Favorite Song
2. No
3. 61 Weeks

[joshtheking]

1. Sure Thing
2. No
3. 60

[ephelia]

Q1: Next Top 10
Sure Thing

Q2: Queen of the Runner Ups
No

Q3: You Know It’s Not The Same…
61

[85la]

1. Favorite Song
2. No
3. 63

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

1. Sure Thing
2. No
3. 64

[Deleted]

1. Sure Thing
2. No
3. 65

[RoseColoredGirl]

I'll try this.

1. Sure Thing
2. No
3. 68

[enwhy]

Welcome to the game RoseColoredGirl and 💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
Let’s start this week with a scoreboard update!

Mar 09: Who will be #1 on the Billboard 200 next week?
Morgan Wallen’s “One Thing At A Time” was the clear winner in its second week, selling 259k units. TWICE actually came in second, with 153k (impressively, 145k of these were actual sales - TWICE put out a vinyl version on release week, which is fairly unusual for a K-Pop group). And Miley finished 3rd in her debut week at 119k - which would typically be enough for a #1. A total of 16 of 20, or 80% got this one right. Congrats to 85la annoymous1 atg Au$tin Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy ephelia @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking khan mms82 Music Fan rainie renfield75 Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 13 points!

Mar 09: Which song will total more streams: “Last Night” [3/18 chart] or “Flowers” [3/25 chart]?
Not even close! Wallen drew 47.5M album week streams to Miley’s 27.2M. A total of 13 of 20, or 65% got this one right. Congrats to 85la annoymous1 atg Au$tin Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy ephelia fengyu @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking mms82 rainie for guessing correctly. Each wins 15 points!

Mar 09: How many songs off of Miley’s “Endless Summer Vacation” will be in the Top 20 next week?
Predictions: 2(x14), 3(x5), 6(x1)
Can you believe that no one got this correct? Following “Flowers” which re-peaked at #1, Miley’s next highest charting track was “River” all the way at #32! Since she only had one song in the Top 20, we will go with the closest answer and split the points in half. A total of 14 of 20, or 70% guessed Miley would chart 2 songs, and so all of you will earn “partial-credit”. Each wins 7 points!

Mar 09: Will TWICE chart at least 1 song from “Ready To Be” on the Hot 100 next week?
Surprisingly not! This is our biggest upset of the year so far. “SET ME FREE” opened at #7 on the Bubbling Under. I don’t think TWICE fans are losing any sleep over this one though, seeing as they sold a career-high Album Equivalent Units on the BB200. A total of 2 of 20, or 10% got this one right. Congrats to ephelia mms82 for guessing correctly. Each wins the HUGE total of 100 points!

Mar 23: For the 4 albums mentioned (Lana Del Rey, Rauw/Rosalia, Luke Combs, Fall Out Boy): Which album will place the highest on the 4/8 Billboard 200 chart?
Another huge upset here! 15 of 17 predicted Luke Combs, however Lana outsold. In non stan speak, the BB200 for this week was as follows:
1 - Wallen - 197k
2 - Jimin - 164k
3 - Lana - 115k
4 - Luke Combs - 101k
5 - SZA - 70k
6 - Fall Out Boy - 64k
For the purposes of this question, Lana narrowly beats out Luke Combs for the top spot! I wish I had included Jimin though, somehow whatever website I was using for research totally skipped over his album. A total of 2 of 17, or 12% got this one right. Congrats to enwhy fengyu for guessing correctly. Each wins 85 points!"

Mar 23:For the 4 albums mentioned (Lana Del Rey, Rauw/Rosalia, Luke Combs, Fall Out Boy): b) Which album will debut a NEW single the HIGHEST on the 4/8 Hot 100 chart?
This one was actually relatively close as well. Luke Combs’ “Fast Car” debuted at #44, just 8 spots ahead of “Beso” by Rosalia & Rauw Alejandro. For reference, only 1 person (ephelia ) predicted Rosalia/Rauw to win this one - if it had played out just sliiiightly differently, this would’ve been a solo 170 point win! So close. Anyways, a total of 16 of 17, or 94% got this one right. Congrats to 1^∞ 85la annoymous1 atg Baby Yoda Hot100Fan enwhy fengyu @imhappy259 jasper0102 joshtheking kindofbiased mms82 rainie renfield75 rnb Rose "Payola" Nylund for guessing correctly. Each wins 11 points!"

Mar 23: For the 4 albums mentioned (Lana Del Rey, Rauw/Rosalia, Luke Combs, Fall Out Boy): c) Which album(s) will result in ANY NEW singles debuting on the 4/8 Hot 100 chart?
We’ve made it to the last one! As previously mentioned, Luke Combs and Rauw/Rosalia both charted new songs. Fairly predictably, Fall Out Boy did not chart anything. Lana also failed to chart anything on the Hot 100 or Bubbling Under. A total of 6 of 17, or 35% got this one right. Congrats to annoymous1 jasper0102 joshtheking rainie renfield75 rnb for guessing correctly. Each wins 28 points!"


If that wasn’t enough for you, let’s do a 2-week update on the "Pick 3" artist selection game!
First, I just wanted to note that I had an error in one of my formulas which was causing multi-week top 10s to earn 4 pts per week rather than 5. This has been fixed and will cause some very minor point adjustments.

• Morgan Wallen continues to build on his lead as his album tracks drift down the chart. He has increased his lead by another 43 to 505 points! “Last Night” is continuing to earn big, up +15 to 122 points.
• Luke Combs ends his relatively low-key album week with a total of 50 points, up +45. “Love You Anyway” is his point-leader, at 24 total through the latest Hot 100.
• Ed Sheeran has earned 15 points thanks to his top-40 debut of “Eyes Closed”.
• Taylor Swift has earned 17 points for her new track “The Girls You Loved”. Unfortunately, she missed out on a top 10 peak by 1 spot!
• Bad Bunny has earned 6 points with “Coco Chanel”.
• Latto has earned 5 points with “Don’t Play With It”.
• Lil Baby has earned 17 points (+8) with “Forever” & “Low Down”.
• Miley Cyrus has earned 23 points (+3) with “River” & “Jaded”.

Here are the artist-by-artist point totals to-date:
505 - Morgan Wallen (Selected by rainie, renfield75)
50 - Luke Combs (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, jasper0102, mms82, renfield75, ephelia)
33 - Miley Cyrus (Selected by 1^∞, jasper0102, rnb, big2000, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, fengyu, khan, kindofbiased)
25 - Rihanna (Selected by ephelia, jayhawk1117)
17 - Taylor Swift (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, big2000, gikem, kindofbiased, 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎, 1^∞, 85la, enwhy, fengyu, jayhawk1117, renfield75, imhappy259, jasper0102, joshtheking, mms82, rainie)
16 - Lil Baby (Selected by khan, mms82)
15 - Ed Sheeran (Selected by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan, ephelia)
13 - Zach Bryan (Selected by khan, gikem)
11 - SZA (Selected by Rose Wintur)
10 - Lil Uzi Vert (Selected by 1^∞, joshtheking)
9 - YoungBoy NBA (Selected by imhappy259)
6 - Bad Bunny (Selected by khan, jasper0102)
5 - J. Cole (Selected by gikem, atg)
5 - Polo G (Selected by enwhy, mms82)
5 - Tyler the Creator (Selected by rainie, kindofbiased)
5 - Latto (Selected by Rose Wintur)


Click here to see full selections & scores
Another eventful update! mms82 rises into the top 3. Myself along with fengyu & joshtheking break into the Top 10. Excited to see how the rest of this year plays out!

Scoreboard
1 (=) renfield75 797
2 (=) rainie 737
3 (▲1) mms82 417
4 (=) ephelia 390
5 (▼2) jasper0102 352
6 (▲8) enwhy 322
7 (▲2) Baby Yoda Hot100Fan 306
8 (▲9) fengyu 282
9 (▲3) joshtheking 274
10 (▼4) kindofbiased 256
11 (▼5) rnb 255
12 (▼2) imhappy259 248
13 (▼2) atg 224
14 (▼1) 1^∞ 220
15 (▼7) khan 217
16 (=) 85la 215
17 (▲2) annoymous1 211
18 (▼1) Rose Wintur 189
19 (▼4) 💎 𝑔𝓋 💎 163
20 (=) jayhawk1117 113
21 (▲3) Au$tin 86
22 (▼1) M5AGTS 85
23 (▼1) JukeboxJacob 82
24 (▼1) Music Fan 68
25 (=) big2000 60

[enwhy]

This week's questions (Deadline Thurs, April 13)

Q1: Los Cien Calientes
Latin music has been all over the Hot 100 lately. Every week, it seems like a handful of new Latin songs show up on the chart, often featuring artists who are relatively unknown in the anglosphere. How long until one of these tracks blows up enough to top the chart?
Will a song with partially or fully Spanish lyrics hit #1 on the Hot 100 this year? (Thru 12/30 chart)*
*Partially = At least a verse, not just one line of the song - Pitbull yelling “DALE” would not count.

Q2: Streaks
Props to ephelia for compiling the data on this one in one of the chart threads! Here is a list of the longest active artist streaks on the Hot 100 (as of 4/8), along with each artist’s current top tracks:
82 Future (Superhero #38)
78 Morgan Wallen (Last Night #3; You Proof #11; and 12 others)
52 Harry Styles (As It Was #12)
50 Lizzo (Special #66)
49 Zach Bryan (Something In The Orange #27; Dawns #85)
48 Drake (Rich Flex #30; Spin Bout U #41)
46 Bailey Zimmerman (Rock And A Hard Place #13)
45 Kane Brown (Thank God #29)
42 21 Savage (Creepin' #5; Rich Flex #30; Spin Bout U #41)
42 Luke Combs (Love You Anyway #24; 5 Leaf Clover #33; and 3 others)
Which artist will have the longest active Hot 100 streak after the last chart of 2023? (Thru 12/30 Chart)*
*Keep in mind, the holiday season usually has a big impact…

Q3: Jimin
Jimin just blew everyone away with the biggest sales week of the year, earning 254k sales on “Like Crazy” to debut at #1. This was the highest total since Taylor released 300 remixes of “Anti-Hero” to block Drake last year (she sold an eye-popping 328k). Can anyone best Jimin this year?
Will anyone beat Jimin’s 1-week total of 254k sales on a song this year? (Thru 12/30 Chart)

SPOILER: Click to show

{Tag List}Please let me know if you'd like to be removed from or added to the tag list!
1^∞
85la
annoymous1
atg
Au$tin
Baby Yoda Hot100Fan
big2000
💙𝖇𝖎𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖊𝖎𝖑𝖎𝖘𝖍𝖋𝖆𝖓
born
cowboy13
enwhy
ephelia
fengyu
𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
gikem
@imhappy259
jasper0102
jayhawk1117
joshtheking
JukeboxJacob
khan
kindofbiased
M5AGTS
mms82
Music Fan
rainie
renfield75
rnb
Rose "Payola" Nylund
RoseColoredGirl

[rnb]

1. no
2. morgan wallen
3. no

[jasper0102]

1. No, unless Bad Bunny drops another album that somehow does better than Un Verano Sin Ti did.
2. Morgan Wallen, unless Future drops an album it won’t be long before Superhero (Heroes and Villains) leaves, and I doubt anyone below the both of them is catching up to Morgan once Future leaves.
3. Imma go out of a limb and say yes here. Either another BTS member or Taylor Swift will beat Jimin’s sales week, and even then I won’t be shocked if no one does it.

[RoseColoredGirl]

1. Sadly no.  
2. Morgan Wallen.
3. I will also guess Taylor Swift.

[1^∞]

Which Peso Pluma songs are eligible to get points?

1. No
2. Drake
3. No