Billboard Hot 100: 05/06/2023

[tekkenguy]

Apr 24, 2023 0:17:20 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Apr 24, 2023 0:01:34 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Most of which were one-week wonder debuts or album bombs by popular artists. Not a random song from a fairly niche genre of Latino music that became #1 out of nowhere. Also they generally happened when the #1 scene was fairly weak. LN is much stronger.

We also don’t know if EBS continues to surge or if it starts to stabilize. I remember We Don’t Talk About Bruno peaked fairly quickly after its surge and trended downward afterwards. Also WDTAB roughly peaked at a roughly similar 39M number that EBS is set to reach this week. If it came out today, it would have been blocked by LN.

Last Night with 300 points per week isn't indestructible. Also it being from unknown acts is rather irrelevant as there've been plenty of unknown acts who surged to the top on streams alone. Like we going to pretend The Box or drivers license were expected to be huge hits?

Also, if we don't know if EBS will continue to surge or stabilize then shouldn't your predictions also be faulty?

300 points on streaming alone is roughly 45 million streams, which is a very heavy lift. As of right now I predict it’ll peak at around the 40m mark then stabilize.

[dodgerslakers94]

Idk why, but this guy is giving me phieagles vibes. Just say you don’t want Ella Baila Sola to hit #1, plain and simple. Hopefully LN declines asap tbh.

[velaxti]

Ella Baila Sola is predicted to gain 29% this week, verses Last Night predicted to decline 2% and Kill Bill falling as well. Obviously it's a potential #1 contender in the near future. Yes, of course it may just stop surging next week but we don't know that yet, so for now we have to consider it a possibility.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 04/21/23

1(=) Eslabon Armado, Peso Pluma - Ella Baila Sola 2,183,026 (-91,902)
2(+1) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 1,702,185 (-84,684)
3(-1) Grupo Frontera, Bad Bunny - un x100to 1,698,370  (-239,079)
4(+2) PinkPantheress, Ice Spice - Boy's a liar Pt. 1,264,758 (-56,935)
5(=) Yng Lvcas, Peso Pluma - La Bebe Remix 1,258,622 (-86,004)
6(+1) Drake - Search & Rescue 1,085,128 (-135,627)
7(+1) SZA - Kill Bill 1,079,072 (-74,816)
8(-4) The Weeknd, Future - Double Fantasy 1,022,382 (-365,552) (-26%)
9(+1) Peso Pluma, Natanael Cano - PRC 990,268 (-5,693)
10(+3) Natanael Cano, Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros - AMG 922,745 (-10,991)

Others:
11(+3) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 891,732 (-38,906)
12(-3) NLE Choppa - SLUT ME OUT 889,470 (-120,378)
13(-1) Tyler the Creator, Kali Uchis - See You Again 882,176 (-95,425)
14(+2) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 813,076 (-31,548)
15(-4) Post Malone - Chemical 793,272 (-201,542) (-20%)
16(-1) David Kushner - Daylight 788,472 (-110,389) (-12%)
17(+1) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 764,907 (-30,536)
18(+1) Peso Pluma - Por las Noches 743,258 (-48,786)
19(-2) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd, 21 Savage - Creepin' 736,277 (-68,488)
20(=) FIFTY FITY - Cupid (Twin Version) 731,938 (-45,919)
21(+4) Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock 699,655 (+3,056)
22(=) Metro Boomin, Future, Chris Brown - Superhero (Heroes & Villains) 698,373 (-41,852)
23(-2) Rema, Selena Gomez - Calm Down 675,764 (-66,738)
24(-1) Luke Combs - Fast Car 672,585 (-66,311)
25(+1) Morgan Wallen - One Thing At A Time 663,006 (-24,820)
27(+5) Junior H, Peso Pluma - El Azul 649,144 (-23,426)
28(-4) Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me 648,931 (+57,158)
31(=) Miguel - Sure Thing 622,824 (-57,002)
32(-2) The Weeknd - Die For You 619,142 (-60,795)
35(-8) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 603,874 (-82,876)
36(+3) KAROL G, Shakira - TQG 601,823 (-34,940)
37(+12) Fuerza Regida, Grupo Frontera - Bebe Dame 598,158 (+4,085)
38(+6) Chino Pacas - El Gordo Trae El Mando 588,470 (-31,018)
39(+4) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 578,717 (-42,108)
40(+8) Coi Leray - Players 574,095 (-36,722)
41(-7) Ice Spice, Nicki Minaj - Princess Diana 572,302 (-90,273)
42(+3) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 570,879 (-43,922)
43(-8) Metro Boomin, Travis Scott, Young Thug - Trance 566,625 (-86,933)
44(-3) Lil Uzi Vert, sped up nightcore, ARIZONATEARS - Watch This (ARIZONATEARS Pluggnb Remix) 564,489 (-59,388)
45(+1) SZA - Snooze 562,258 (-52,056)
46(+1) Kali Uchis - Moonlight 558,140 (-53,201)
47(+14) Jack Black - Peaches 552,197 (+43,772)
48(+4) Taylor Swift - Lavender Haze 542,115 (-37,422)
49(+7) Becky G, Peso Pluma - Chanel 537,255 (-3,297)
50(+3) The Weeknd, Ariana Grande - Die For You Remix 528,540 (-42,404)
51(=) ROSALÍA, Rauw Alejandro - BESO 525,236 (-57,830)
52(+2) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 523,759 (-30,924)
53(-13) Labrinth - Never Felt So Alone 511,197 (-119,050) (-19%)
54(+4) Toosii - Favorite Song 504,827 (-26,111)
55(-19) SZA, Doja Cat - Kill Bill Remix 502,498 (-147,041) (-26%)
56(+10) Taylor Swift - Karma 496,936 (+2,871)
59(-9) Tyler the Creator - DOGTOOTH 484,912 (-99,231)
61(-1) d4vd - Here With Me 468,387 (-42,818)
62(+7) Morgan Wallen - Ain't That Some 460,551 (-23,638)
64(-1) Lil Baby - Low Down 458,389 (-48,487)
65(+3) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 458,092 (-29,072)
69(-7) Lizzy McAlpine - ceilings 447,060 (-60,689)
71(+5) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 443,084 (-26,861)
72(+16) Fuerza Regida, Natanael Cano - Ch y la Pizza 441,802 (-1,036)
73(+2) Morgan Wallen - Everything I Love 436,509 (-38,301)
74(-7) Feid, Young Miko - Classy 101 435,852 (-53,421)
75(+16) Carin Leon, Grupo Frontera - Que Vuelvas 435,144 (+4,027)
77(+5) Yahritza Y Su Esencia, Grupo Frontera - Frágil 433,798 (-23,274)
78(-1) RAYE, 070 Shake - Escapism. 433,400 (-30,969)
81(-10) Metro Boomin, 21 Savage - Glock in My Lap 426,527 (-56,413)
83(-4) Hotel Ugly - Shut up My Moms Calling 416,937 (-46,831)
86(-12) Taylor Swift - All Of The Girls You Loved Before 406,210 (-69,115)
87(-45) Kim Petras, Nicki Minaj - Alone 404,969 (-218,891) (-35%)
88(+9) Fuerza Regida, Peso Pluma - Igualito a Mi Apá 403,398 (-16,052)
89(+15) Taylor Swift - Blank Space 402,250 (-2,479)
90(-4) Drake, 21 Savage - Spin Bout U 400,615 (-45,748)
94(-2) Morgan Wallen - Cowgirls 396,157 (-33,834)
95(-10) Tory Lanez - The Color Violet 395,661 (-53,190)
97(+9) Taylor Swift - Style 389,327 (-14,764)
98(-2) Oscar Maydon, Junior H - Fin de Semana 385,955 (-33,575)
99(+4) Morgan Wallen - I Wrote the Book 385,379 (-20,819)
100(-5) TV Girl - Lovers Rock 384,426 (-38,092)

102(-2) Taylor Swift - cardigan 377,052 (-35,475)
103(+10) Superstar Pride - PAINTING PICTURES 375,858 (-20,115)
104(-20) Tyler the Creator - SORRY NOT SORRY 375,355 (-75,986)
105(+5) Yandel, Feid - Yandel 150 373,043 (-23,986)
106(+20) Peso Pluma, Blessd - Las Morras 368,881 (+1,522)
108(-3) Morgan Wallen, Eric Church - Man Made A Bar 365,677(-38,795)
109(+32) Grupo Frontera - No Se Va 364,063 (+11,989)
111(-2) Arctic Monkeys - 505 360,708 (-37,007)
112(-4) Metro Boomin, Future, Don Toliver - Too Many Nights 359,464 (-38,476)
113(-2) Mac DeMarco - Heart to Heart 357,848 (-39,106)
114(+1) Taylor Swift - Midnight Rain 355,030 (-28,656)
115(-1) Sabrina Carpenter - Nonsense 354,588 (-32,812)
118(+5) Luke Combs - Love You Anyway 351,835 (-32,812)
122(+9) Chino Pacas, Grupo Regida - Dijeron Que No La Iba Lograr 348,281 (-11,492)
124(+22) Grupo Marca Registrada, Grupo Frontera - Di Que Si 345,908 (-1,481)
125(+5) Junior H, Peso Pluma, Gabito Ballesteros - El Tsurito 344,227 (-16,654)
126(-1) Taylor Swift - Enchanted 343,392 (-25,253)
128(-8) TV Girl - Blue Hair 339,245 (-31,477)
129(-1) Taylor Swift - Bejeweled 338,786 (-23,828)
130(-14) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 336,003 (-47,162)
131(+28) Luis R Conriquez, Tony Aguirre, Peso Pluma - El Gavilán 335,127 (-121)
132(-3) Don Toliver, Justin Bieber, Future - Private Landing 334,910 (-26,068)
133(=) Beach House - Space Song 333,614 (-25,387)
136(-19) Melanie Martinez - VOID 331,515 (-43,259)
140(-2) Eladio Carrion, Bad Bunny - Coco Chanel 326,704 (-28,679)
144(-10) Bakar - Hell N Back 321,809 (-36,006)
154(+2) Yeat - Out thë way 313,004 (-23,565)
155(+34) Ice Spice - In Ha Mood 308,701 (-5,587)
163(+7) Ozuna, Feid - Hey Mor 304,450 (-23,127)
164(-77) Agust D - Haegeum 304,126 (-141,026) (-32%)
168(+31) Peso Pluma, Luis R Conriquez - Siempre Pendietes 301,605 (-4,520)
171(-14) Arctic Monkeys - I Wanna Be Yours 300,851 (-35,412)
174(+10) Megan Moroney - Tennessee Orange 299,093 (-18,263)
176(-14) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 296,072 (-37,101)

Total Streams for Kill Bill: 1,581,570 (Would be #4 with combined streams)
Total Streams for Die For You: 1,147,682 (Would be #6 with combined streams)

[korbel16]

i’m actually really proud mexican music is getting VERY popular right now

[neel]

I'm really surprise this song is doing well too good, since it seems like streaming is literally carrying it. I feel like "Ella Baila Sola" is going to become massive in the next couple of weeks, and potentially be a favorite contender for song of the summer.

[Deleted]

Chemical #20 on US Spotify and #42 on Global Spotify...

[iHype.]

Apr 24, 2023 6:28:33 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Chemical #20 on US Spotify and #42 on Global Spotify...

After the last era, I think we all pretty much accepted he peaked and has now had a decline.

That song is doing alright all things considered. It’s at least not an Eyes Closed situation with an even steeper decline occurring following a prior decline.

[notgoodenglish]

guys if Ella Baila Sola get that number one, will be one of the most historic number ones, a regional mexicana full spanish being on the top it will be iconic and latino proud

[king_billboard_100]

4/10 are spanish songs rn in the top 10 spotify😳

[king_billboard_100]

Apr 24, 2023 7:56:09 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Apr 24, 2023 6:28:33 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Chemical #20 on US Spotify and #42 on Global Spotify...

After the last era, I think we all pretty much accepted he peaked and has now had a decline.

That song is doing alright all things considered. It’s at least not an Eyes Closed situation with an even steeper decline occurring following a prior decline.

Im not sure he’s done but he wont do the same damage as before

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Apr 24, 2023 8:21:12 GMT -5 notgoodenglish said:

guys if Ella Baila Sola get that number one, will be one of the most historic number ones, a regional mexicana full spanish being on the top it will be iconic and latino proud

And without radio support outside of RMM stations and even little playlist support (it's currently towards the bottom of TTH and only added this week)

[tekkenguy]

Monday’s Spotify update shows that EBS lost nearly twice as many streams as Last Night. Yeah not a good sign for them and it shows the song may be stabilizing on Spotify.

[mms82]

can't we celebrate both artists? Morgan Wallen with a historic country hit being succeeded by Ella Baila Sola, a historic Regional Mexican hit? what a dream and showcase of the diversity of American music

[tekkenguy]

Apr 24, 2023 9:26:10 GMT -5 mms82 said:

can't we celebrate both artists? Morgan Wallen with a historic country hit being succeeded by Ella Baila Sola, a historic Regional Mexican hit? what a dream and showcase of the diversity of American music

Sure we can. But not every song can go #1, unfortunately. I am just making predictions, and my prediction is that EBS will be blocked by Last Night.

Could EBS surprise me and make it to #1 like Kill Bill will today? Sure. Can my prediction change? Yes it can. But as of right now I don’t see it overtaking Last Night anytime soon.

[Fanstar1]

Apr 24, 2023 3:43:16 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Ella Baila Sola is predicted to gain 29% this week, verses Last Night predicted to decline 2% and Kill Bill falling as well. Obviously it's a potential #1 contender in the near future. Yes, of course it may just stop surging next week but we don't know that yet, so for now we have to consider it a possibility.

Would love to see Ella Baila Sola go #1 as it is a great song, but I'm not sure it will quite be able to make it there if radio continues to snub it. Yes it has incredible streaming, but it has a bad paid:free ratio and the song might reach its peak on streaming sooner than later. I think at minimum though it should peak at least #4, maybe top 3, which is already well beyond what I ever expected for the song at first. Also Un x100to by Grupo Frontera & Bad Bunny should make the top 10 this week. While it's looking like that song is peaking already streaming wise, I think it also will have strong YE chances.

[Deleted]

Apr 24, 2023 7:56:09 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Apr 24, 2023 6:28:33 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Chemical #20 on US Spotify and #42 on Global Spotify...

After the last era, I think we all pretty much accepted he peaked and has now had a decline.

That song is doing alright all things considered. It’s at least not an Eyes Closed situation with an even steeper decline occurring following a prior decline.

Truly his Never Really Over/Smile era except more local and with more airplay

For comparison, day 10 on Spotify:
NRO - #16 Global Spotify/ #22 US Spotify

[HamedM1 💔]

A 24 hour countdown livestream started on Kesha's YouTube account a little over 2 hours ago, so she is obviously announcing or dropping new music. Let us hope she makes some chart impact with whatever she does, she deserves everything and the world.

www.youtube.com/live/aRdsBznBnQA?feature=share

[neogale]

Apr 24, 2023 6:28:33 GMT -5 @stateofgrace said:

Chemical #20 on US Spotify and #42 on Global Spotify...

I really hope this doesn't underperform (in a chart sense). It's a bop, and imo better than I Like You

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2023 » / « 04 » / « 24 »

1(=) Miley Cyrus - Flowers 104.26(-0.10)

2(=) SZA - Kill Bill 98.98(-0.49)
3(=) Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage - Creepin' 97.58(+0.30)
4(=) Rema & Selena Gomez - Calm Down 74.44(+0.51)

5(+1) Coi Leray - Players 60.57(-0.17)

6(-1)The Weeknd - Die For You 59.70(-1.35)

7(=) Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero 52.92(-0.07)
8(=) Morgan Wallen - Last Night 49.75(+0.82)

9(=) PinkPantheress & Ice Spice - Boy's a liar, Pt. 2 48.20(+0.58)

10(+1)Miguel - Sure Thing 46.66(+0.79)

34(+4) Brett Young - You Didn't 26.59(+0.79)

44(+2) Post Malone - Chemical 24.58(+2.30) +

46(+3) Toosii - Favorite Song 22.64(+0.85)

83(+11) Drake - Search & Rescue 13.26(+0.93)

-(-) Jonas Brothers - Waffle House 11.44(+0.92)

-(-) Foo Fighters - Rescued 8.55(+1.20)

-(-) The Weeknd - Double Fantasy (feat. Future) 6.16(+1.22)

-(-) Luke Combs - Love You Anyway 5.04(+0.77)

-(-) SZA - Snooze 3.65(+2.14) +

[Choco]

I wouldn't expect 2023 Kesha to impact the Hot 100 meaningfully, sadly.

[enwhy]

This week on TikTok:
White Tee, a 2021 track by Summer Walker ft. RNB artist NO1-NOAH, debuts at #1 on the US TikTok chart. Noah was the first artist signed to Summer Walker's label back in 2020. The track hasn't seen much momentum on streaming yet - it's mostly being used in a rizz trend where people are showing off pickup lines/flirting.
Peaches, Jack Black's viral song from the new Mario movie, debuts at #2.
And Ella Baila Sola, which we are all familiar with, debuts at #3.

http://instagram.com/p/CrbKwcoOATP

[kindofbiased]

considering she's (maybe) dropping on a Tuesday I don't think Kesha's too concerned with chart placements anymore, though it would be nice for her to get another hit she deserves it

[85la]

It's interesting, the TikTok chart seems to be incredibly fast-moving, with so many songs debuting at or near the top. I don't follow it too closely, but is the turnover usually much higher than other charts?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

[tekkenguy]

Apr 24, 2023 18:19:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Yeah, I can’t see anyone else toppling Morgan any time soon.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Apr 24, 2023 18:19:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sure, "Last Night" sticks to #1 longer, but the longevity of "Kill Bill" may help its chances on YE #1 (kinda like "Love Yourself" in 2016)

[tekkenguy]

Apr 24, 2023 18:39:43 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Apr 24, 2023 18:19:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Sure, "Last Night" sticks to #1 longer, but the longevity of "Kill Bill" may help its chances on YE #1 (kinda like "Love Yourself" in 2016)

A few obstacles for “Kill Bill” to go #1. First of all, is still has “Flowers” to contend with. Secondly country songs have always been forces to be reckoned with on YE charts. Thirdly there have been several YE #1s that only burst onto the scene in March or April like “Last Night” did, i.e. “Boom Boom Pow”, “Rolling in the Deep”, “Somebody that I Used To Know”, “Old Town Road”, so it’s not an insurmountable gap.

[Music Fan]

I know ya'll want to keep Anti-Hero in the top 10 (fun fact no one cares about: I still have never listened to the song besides the H100 countdown youtube videos), but I'm rooting for Peso Pluma to sneak in at #10 and get him two Top 10s!!! This would make 40% of the Top 10 have Mexican artists (including Selena Gomez).

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Apr 24, 2023 19:16:02 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Apr 24, 2023 18:39:43 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Sure, "Last Night" sticks to #1 longer, but the longevity of "Kill Bill" may help its chances on YE #1 (kinda like "Love Yourself" in 2016)

A few obstacles for “Kill Bill” to go #1. First of all, is still has “Flowers” to contend with. Secondly country songs have always been forces to be reckoned with on YE charts. Thirdly there have been several YE #1s that only burst onto the scene in March or April like “Last Night” did, i.e. “Boom Boom Pow”, “Rolling in the Deep”, “Somebody that I Used To Know”, “Old Town Road”, so it’s not an insurmountable gap.

But then there's "As It Was" last year despite having 15 weeks at #1 (and bursts to the Hot 100 by April too) losing the YE #1 to "Heat Waves" that benefitted from the longevity, but to be completely fair, the competition this year was definitely strong compared to last year, with "Kill Bill", "Last Night", and "Flowers" all being viable contenders ("Anti-Hero" being the dark horse contender)