Billboard Hot 100: 07/29/2023

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

Jul 22, 2023 20:46:51 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Jul 22, 2023 14:06:43 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

im pretty sure billboard only filters sales on kpop songs

They filter VPN sales - there is no equivalent of foreign MAGA stans mass buying Jason Aldean lol

well yeah they dont know what a vpn is

[Gary]

So when. Was the last ti e we got to page 19 before the chart came out ?

[dodgerslakers94]

Jul 22, 2023 22:18:01 GMT -5 Gary said:

So when. Was the last ti e we got to page 19 before the chart came out ?

Week ending 11/19/2022 with 27 pages and 11/12/2022 with 21 pages. Must've been when Anti-Hero and Rich Flex were battling it out for #1.

[Push The Button]

Jul 22, 2023 16:35:37 GMT -5 musiclife said:

There is no way it's an exact tie of 307 points. How would they decide is #1? Would there be 2 #1s?

The decision would then go to the girl who won the main challenge but lost the lip sync. Her lipstick would decide which song is #1.

[velaxti]

Jul 22, 2023 16:35:37 GMT -5 musiclife said:

There is no way it's an exact tie of 307 points. How would they decide is #1? Would there be 2 #1s?

It's (almost) impossible for it to happen on the Hot 100 because you've got airplay and streams which are in the 10s of millions, so the possibility for 2 songs to have the same exact values in all metrics is basically 0.

But ties actually do happen on sales-only charts in small countries. I wouldn't be surprised if it even happened on the Billboard 200 before back when it was only sales (or maybe on a genre-specific Digital Sales chart outside of the download era where sales can be low and a tie is more likely). A tie is more likely to happen lower down the charts where the sales gap between positions can get pretty small.

I know some chart companies have methods of tie-breaking if two songs have identical sales. Like they go to percentage change compared to the previous week to decide which one gets the higher position. Other chart companies just have them tied and put both songs in the higher position. And some chart companies seem to change how they react to a tie differently every time it happens. I think in the UK once when there was a tie they just ranked them alphabetically, which is controversial... I don't know what Billboard does though, probably someone here knows.

It would just never happen on the Hot 100 though.

[gs]

Predictions have a huge margin of error when BTS sales are involved, so the likelihood they're practically tied is low anyway.

In cases where songs are too close, and margin of error is high, predictors don't decide a #1 based on actual stats available, they do it based on intuition or whatever will reduce the chance they'll be attacked by stans for the prediction.

It's a four-way logic table:

- Seven predicted #1, actual #1 -> all good
- Seven predicted #2, actual #1 -> predictor attacked by stans for being bitter/biased against BTS and inaccurate
- Small Town predicted #1, actual #1 -> Billboard gets attacked by stans, predictors were accurate so can't do anything to them - before reveal though, they'd likely be attacked despite being accurate
- Small Town predicted #2, actual #1 -> Billboard gets attacked by stans, predictors said it was close after all

So putting Seven at #1 regardless of the result means either everything is good, or Billboard gets attacked while predictors go unscathed. Putting it at #2 gets them attacked minimum half of the time. 

[mms82]

Jul 22, 2023 21:42:07 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

Jul 22, 2023 20:46:51 GMT -5 mms82 said:

They filter VPN sales - there is no equivalent of foreign MAGA stans mass buying Jason Aldean lol

well yeah they dont know what a vpn is

Are you arguing there are MAGA stans in places like the Philippines and Vietnam like the ARMY groups in those countries that would be buying this song, but they’re too stupid to know what a VPN is?

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 60, 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:

July 27, 1963

01 01 Surf City - Jan & Dean (2nd and final week at #1)
02 03 So Much In Love - The Tymes
03 06 Fingertips (Part 2) - Little Stevie Wonder
04 02 Easier Said Than Done - The Essex
05 07 Wipe Out - The Surfaris
06 04 Tie Me Kangaroo Down, Sport - Rolf Harris
07 09 (You're The) Devil In Disguise - Elvis Presley
08 14 Blowin' In The Wind - Peter, Paul & Mary
09 05 Memphis - Lonnie Mack
10 15 Just One Look - Doris Troy


July 27, 1968

01 01 Grazing In The Grass - Hugh Masekela (2nd and final week at #1)
02 02 Lady Willpower - Gary Puckett & The Union Gap
03 06 Stoned Soul Picnic - The 5th Dimension
04 03 Jumpin' Jack Flash - The Rolling Stones
05 05 The Horse - Cliff Nobles & Co.
06 07 Hurdy Gurdy Man - Donovan
07 04 This Guy's In Love With You - Herb Alpert
08 08 Classical Gas - Mason Williams
09 09 Hello, I Love You - The Doors
10 10 Indian Lake - The Cowsills


July 28, 1973

01 01 Bad, Bad Leroy Brown - Jim Croce (2nd and final week at #1)
02 03 Yesterday Once More - The Carpenters
03 04 Shambala - Three Dog Night
04 07 Smoke On The Water - Deep Purple
05 02 Will It Go Round In Circles - Billy Preston
06 11 Diamond Girl - Seals & Crofts
07 05 Kodachrome - Paul Simon
08 08 Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy - Bette Midler
09 20 The Morning After - Maureen McGovern
10 06 Give Me Love (Give Me Peace On Earth) - George Harrison


July 29, 1978

01 01 Shadow Dancing - Andy Gibb (7th and final week at #1)
02 02 Baker Street - Gerry Rafferty
03 03 Miss You - The Rolling Stones
04 05 Last Dance - Donna Summer
05 06 Grease - Frankie Valli
06 10 Three Times a Lady - The Commodores
07 04 Still The Same - Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band
08 08 Use Ta Be My Girl - The O'Jays
09 07 The Groove Line - Heatwave
10 11 Love Will Find a Way - deleted Cruise


July 30, 1983

01 01 Every Breath You Take - The Police (4th of 8 weeks at #1)
02 02 Electric Avenue - Eddy Grant
03 03 Flashdance...What a Feeling - Irene Cara
04 04 Never Gonna Let You Go - Sergio Mendes (w/Joe Pizzulo & Leza Miller)
05 08 Is There Something I Should Know - Duran Duran
06 11 Sweet Dreams (Are Made Of This) - Eurythmics
07 05 Wanna Be Startin' Somethin' - Michael Jackson
08 10 She Works Hard For The Money - Donna Summer
09 09 Stand Back - Stevie Nicks
10 07 Our House - Madness

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

July 30, 1988

01 04 Roll With It - Steve Winwood (1st of 4 weeks at #1)
02 01 Hold On To The Nights - Richard Marx
03 06 Hands To Heaven - Breathe
04 02 Pour Some Sugar On Me - Def Leppard
05 07 Make Me Lose Control - Eric Carmen
06 09 Sign Your Name - Terence Trent D'Arby
07 03 New Sensation - INXS
08 11 1-2-3 - Gloria Estefan & The Miami Sound Machine
09 10 Rush Hour - Jane Wiedlin
10 14 I Don't Wanna Go On With You Like That - Elton John


July 31, 1993

01 01 Can't Help Falling In Love - UB40 (2nd of 7 weeks at #1)
02 03 Whoomp! (There It Is) - Tag Team
03 02 Weak - SWV
04 09 I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) - The Proclaimers
05 07 Slam - Onyx
06 04 That's The Way Love Goes - Janet Jackson
07 11 Lately - Jodeci
08 06 Show Me Love - Robin S
09 05 Knockin' Da Boots - H-Town
10 08 I'll Never Get Over You (Getting Over Me) - Expose

20 57 If - Janet Jackson


August 1, 1998

01 01 The Boy Is Mine - Brandy & Monica (9th of 13 weeks at #1)
02 02 You're Still The One - Shania Twain
03 03 My Way - Usher
04 05 Adia - Sarah McLachlan
05 07 Make It Hot - Nicole feat. Missy Elliott & Mocha
06 04 Come With Me - Puff Daddy feat. Jimmy Page
07 06 Too Close - Next
08 13 Never Ever - All Saints
09 08 Ray Of Light - Madonna
10 15 When The Lights Go Out - Five


July 26, 2003

01 01 Crazy In Love - Beyonce feat. Jay-Z (3rd of 8 weeks at #1)
02 02 Magic Stick - Lil Kim feat. 50 Cent
03 03 Rock Wit U (Aww Baby) - Ashanti
04 04 Right Thurr - Chingy
05 10 Never Leave You (Uh Oooh, Uh Oooh) - Lumidee
06 05 Unwell - Matchbox Twenty
07 07 Bring Me To Life - Evanescence feat. Paul McCoy
08 06 Get Busy - Sean Paul
09 09 Miss Independent - Kelly Clarkson
10 15 In Those Jeans - Ginuwine

[onebuffalo]

For the record, Jason Aldean's biggest country hit is Big Green Tractor from 2009. It topped the chart for four weeks while peaking at #18 on the Hot 100. Aldean's biggest Hot 100 hit is Dirt Road Anthem from 2011 (#7). It too topped the country chart.

[Soulsista]

Billboard Top 10 Flashback:

July 26, 2008

01 01 I Kissed a Girl - Katy Perry (4th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 02 Take a Bow - Rihanna
03 03 Lollipop - Lil Wayne feat. Static Major
04 06 Forever - Chris Brown
05 04 Bleeding Love - Leona Lewis
06 07 Pocketful Of Sunshine - Natasha Bedingfield
07 05 Viva La Vida - Coldplay
08 11 A Milli - Lil Wayne
09 10 7 Things - Miley Cyrus
10 09 Bust It Baby (Part 2) - Plies feat. Ne-Yo


July 27, 2013

01 01 Blurred Lines - Robin Thicke feat. T.I. & Pharrell (6th of 12 weeks at #1)
02 02 Get Lucky - Daft Punk feat. Pharrell
03 03 We Can't Stop - Miley Cyrus
04 04 Radioactive - Imagine Dragons
05 06 Can't Hold Us - Macklemore & Ryan Lewis feat. Ray Dalton
06 05 Cruise - Florida Georgia Line feat. Nelly
07 08 Treasure - Bruno Mars
08 NE Holy Grail - Jay-Z feat. Justin Timberlake
09 07 Mirrors - Justin Timberlake
10 10 Cups - Anna Kendrick


July 28, 2018

01 01 In My Feelings - Drake (2nd of 10 weeks at #1)
02 02 I Like It - Cardi B, Bad Bunny & J Balvin
03 03 Girls Like You - Maroon 5 feat. Cardi B
04 04 Nice For What - Drake
05 05 Boo'd Up - Ella Mai
06 07 Lucid Dreams - Juice WRLD
07 12 Better Now - Post Malone
08 08 No Tears Left To Cry - Ariana Grande
09 09 Psycho - Post Malone feat. Ty Dolla $ign
10 06 God's Plan - Drake

11 NE God Is a Woman - Ariana Grande


July 30, 2022

01 02 About Damn Time - Lizzo (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 As It Was - Harry Styles
03 04 Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) - Kate Bush
04 03 First Class - Jack Harlow
05 05 Wait For U - Future feat. Drake & Tems
06 06 Me Porto Bonito - Bad Bunny & Chencho Corleone
07 09 BREAK MY SOUL - Beyonce
08 07 Heat Waves - Glass Animals
09 11 Late Night Talking - Harry Styles
10 08 Jimmy Cooks - Drake feat. 21 Savage

14 50 Bad Habit - Steve Lacy

[mag]

Jul 23, 2023 14:28:12 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

For the record, Jason Aldean's biggest country hit is Big Green Tractor from 2009. It topped the chart for four weeks while peaking at #18 on the Hot 100. Aldean's biggest Hot 100 hit is Dirt Road Anthem from 2011 (#7). It too topped the country chart.

And it’s such a crime that he has a lot of great songs that were never released and deserved a chance, like Asphalt Cowboy, I believe in Ghosts and so many more.

[shadowthehedgehogfan]

Jul 23, 2023 7:09:44 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Jul 22, 2023 21:42:07 GMT -5 shadowthehedgehogfan said:

well yeah they dont know what a vpn is

Are you arguing there are MAGA stans in places like the Philippines and Vietnam like the ARMY groups in those countries that would be buying this song, but they’re too stupid to know what a VPN is?

oh no, i dont think they exist outside of amnerica

[mms82]

Can we take a moment in the most calamitous thread in forever to praise Soulsista? Consistently sharing the Billboard flashback every week is incredibly appreciated :)

[Choco]

This week is hell in terms of pleasing all annoying fanbases. MAGA crowd will complain if Seven is #1 (and say it's only because of forced inclusion). ARMY stans will complain if Aldean is #1 (and say it's racist).

People that love music will probably keep quiet but still suffer because both songs are bad lol.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jul 23, 2023 14:23:55 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

July 26, 2003

05 10 Never Leave You (Uh Oooh, Uh Oooh) - Lumidee

I know it peaked at #3 (spoiler ) and that's great, but it really deserved at least 10 weeks at #1, so iconic! One of those songs that would be popular even if they were released today imo.

[fridayteenage]

I mean, unlike bots I feel like the maga crowd's purpose isn't specifically the hot 100, but to support racism.

The song currently at the top is morgan's so they're not trying to topple that.
And I doubt a plurality of them are glued to chart predictor accounts.

[Choco]

Jul 23, 2023 17:58:54 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I mean, unlike bots I feel like the maga crowd's purpose isn't specifically the hot 100, but to support racism.

The song currently at the top is morgan's so they're not trying to topple that.
And I doubt a plurality of them are glued to chart predictor accounts.

The Aldean song is way more inflammatory and racist than anything Wallen has ever dropped so I don't think they mind toppling Last Night.

I do get your point that they're not the type of crowd glued to @/chartdata but the headlines about it going #1 are gonna be wonderful to them.

[imbondz]

Jul 23, 2023 16:48:44 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Can we take a moment in the most calamitous thread in forever to praise Soulsista? Consistently sharing the Billboard flashback every week is incredibly appreciated :)

Agreed

[lazer]

Let’s be honest, people buying and streaming Jason are not doing it for the music, they’re doing it to “own the libs” and other culture war bs.

[eagle27]

I don’t think most people, besides hardcore racists or ultra woke Twitter stans, really think of racism with Morgan Wallen in 2023. I even know liberal people living in major cities that like his music, it’s not just MAGA country fans. Last Night is basically a pop song so of course it can have mass appeal and crossover radio support.

[Groovy]

Pulse rooting for stans to beat MAGAs

[neel]

Well today's the day, we get to finally know whether Jungkook of BTS and the mediocre "Big Dick Energy" female rapper debuted at the top of the charts with the help of mass buying (as usual) from armies, which in a very unusual setting seems will only upset Barbz this week. Or whether a song so bigoted and hateful debuts straight to the summit officially destroys Billboard's reputation as popular music chart and also means we failed as a country for letting this song reach #1. Either those two are the charts are delayed.

[Darkest Hour]

Jul 24, 2023 8:09:23 GMT -5 neel said:

Well today's the day, we get to finally know whether Jungkook of BTS and the mediocre "Big Dick Energy" female rapper debuted at the top of the charts with the help of mass buying (as usual) from armies, which in a very unusual setting seems will only upset Barbz this week. Or whether a song so bigoted and hateful debuts straight to the summit officially destroys Billboard's reputation as popular music chart and also means we failed as a country for letting this song reach #1. Either those two are the charts are delayed.

Billboard is just a chart compiler. If that song is really the #1 using their formula, then who can really blame them?

[rimetm]

There’s an enclave of critics for a few years at least that have been pushing for sales to be excised from the chart as they’ve reached the point where they’re either useless for most songs (I.e. few to no positions would change for even songs with top 10 on the metric) or a chaotic tool for #1 campaigns, which often leads to songs that don’t have sufficient public exposure to be “the biggest song in the country” (e.g. Like Crazy earlier this year, arguably Kill Bill and Die for You too). Try That in a Small Town pulling it off would give said critics the strongest ammo for this argument.

[Az Paynter]

Except it proves the exact opposite - if that many people are actually buying the song, the labels and the artists want that. We all know stanbase bullshit is what is propelling most of these major sales frames of late, but it's just money in the labels' pocket. They're not going to decapitate a golden goose that's just laid a couple of golden eggs.

[jenglisbe]

Jul 24, 2023 9:08:16 GMT -5 rimetm said:

There’s an enclave of critics for a few years at least that have been pushing for sales to be excised from the chart as they’ve reached the point where they’re either useless for most songs (I.e. few to no positions would change for even songs with top 10 on the metric) or a chaotic tool for #1 campaigns, which often leads to songs that don’t have sufficient public exposure to be “the biggest song in the country” (e.g. Like Crazy earlier this year, arguably Kill Bill and Die for You too). Try That in a Small Town pulling it off would give said critics the strongest ammo for this argument.

While I don't like the ridiculous trash that is "TTIAST"/Aldean, I don't think it's quite the same as the mass buying by stans off artist web sites where the artist releases many different versions. Also, this song had the most 'sufficient public exposure' last week, healthy reason or not.

[mms82]

Jul 24, 2023 9:20:31 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jul 24, 2023 9:08:16 GMT -5 rimetm said:

There’s an enclave of critics for a few years at least that have been pushing for sales to be excised from the chart as they’ve reached the point where they’re either useless for most songs (I.e. few to no positions would change for even songs with top 10 on the metric) or a chaotic tool for #1 campaigns, which often leads to songs that don’t have sufficient public exposure to be “the biggest song in the country” (e.g. Like Crazy earlier this year, arguably Kill Bill and Die for You too). Try That in a Small Town pulling it off would give said critics the strongest ammo for this argument.

While I don't like the ridiculous trash that is "TTIAST"/Aldean, I don't think it's quite the same as the mass buying by stans off artist web sites where the artist releases many different versions. Also, this song had the most 'sufficient public exposure' last week, healthy reason or not.

Yeah, fortunately/unfortunately TTIAST is definitely the most “public exposure” song in the country. Whether that translates into the chart formula for a Hot 100 #1 we will see shortly.

[rimetm]

My counter is that getting some news stories isn't the same thing as sufficient public exposure, especially when some people just read about the incident in text form or watch a newspiece where at most you get soundless clips of the MV. This isn't a song you'd hear in the shops; even if you're in an area where Country radio is what the shops play, it's only #27 on that format, so there's a good chance your local stations don't even have it on rotation (trust me, as someone who has coworkers and family who tune in with some regularity, some of those playlists are like 10-12 current songs long, with some '10s and older songs to pad it out). The people who bought the song, they're not the type to blare it out of their car or phone in public, heck, whether they play it at all is up in the air if they just bought it to "own the libs". What exposure it did get I feel is best reflected in the streams it got, ~10m: significant enough that it'd perhaps merit a top 40 debut, but not an amount where it feels like the sales are an understable supplement in normal circumstances (e.g. the 70k sales that accompanied the over 50m streams Flowers debuted with).

[enwhy]

TTIAST will be #1 with 40M streams next week according to early predictions. As unfortunate as it is, there's not a good argument to be made that this song isn't being consumed by audiences. If Billboard were to try to throw out a song purely for its (awful) political message, they would really be burning their credibility.