HITS 7/12: Taylor Swift 163k, Zach Bryan 140k

[Push The Button]

Jul 8, 2024 18:54:28 GMT -5 theycallmedualian said:

Jul 8, 2024 17:39:28 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

If Mariah Carey released 40 variants I would most definitely order all 40 copies. She’s the only one, though.

that is why the whole 'variants' argument falls dead as a doornail - cus as long as people value 'em enough to buy 'em, then that album remains a valuable commodity AND a more valuable commodity than other albums that cant sell as much. 


therefore, the most straightforward conclusion regarding taylor's variants is that: her album is a more valuable commodity than any other artists. now go cry about that.





Mayman

1989 has NOT sold 50 million copies nor has it when you factor in SEA.

the original 1989 has sold 40M atp and the TV version has already sold 9-10M. source: HDD. anyhow, im sure 'the bodyguard' is probably still higher, but then again, it's not like that was solely her record, she didnt even sing 50% of the songs. 

Hey, I’m with you. If people keep buying them, then go off! Nobody is holding a gun to their heads.

[ificanthaveyou]

Jul 9, 2024 17:09:07 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

Wow, I assumed with the signed albums it'd be game over, but maybe she didn't release as many as people thought.

It's too close for her to not do something, especially since she already did lol

No way this reflects the 65k signed albums and the restocked variants. Hits is trying to make it seem competitive, when in reality Taylor’s likely at 200k rn

[👑 Eloquent ™]

^ Yeah something doesn't add up. She did 115k last week. Even with a drop to 100k that would mean she only sold 15-20k between all the variants and signed cds. Definitely something fishy about those figures.

[G-Reg]

Jul 9, 2024 17:51:23 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Camila's album would've been 6 places higher this week (36k), it's all about timing.

And Zach went and released his whole damn album a day early and might miss #1. Sure is!

[theycallmedualian]

Jul 9, 2024 18:15:19 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Jul 9, 2024 17:09:07 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

Wow, I assumed with the signed albums it'd be game over, but maybe she didn't release as many as people thought.

It's too close for her to not do something, especially since she already did lol

No way this reflects the 65k signed albums and the restocked variants. Hits is trying to make it seem competitive, when in reality Taylor’s likely at 200k rn

ok, so a couple of things: 

1. nobody had any proof of the "65k signed", that came out of swiftie twitterverse and was most likely conjured up by some little kid who just wanted attention. its entirely possible she only has 20k signed and isnt enough to block zach.
2.it is also possible that her team is waiting for this exact HDD article to ship the appropriate amount. On Swift's official webpage, it says the signed CDs will ship on or before july 10th. this probably the more likely scenario 



anyhow, 128k for bryan was exactly within my predicted zone 2 days ago, and i also predicted swift would lose. if she doesnt change course then i'll be right on that too.

why am i always correct?  

 

[clsvltn]

Taylor better not release the anthology this week and block Eminem lol

[seak05]

Shockingly, Hits underestimated Taylor. She’s now up to 140k projected for the week

I think she’d do a lot for a 13th week next week, but 300k isn’t happening unless she’s got anthology vinyls ready to go

[Ryan]

Seems like Taylor just started to ship her variants in the last 24-36 hours. That's why her early numbers were lower than expected.


hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=341845&title=TOP-20-UPDATE%3A-BATTER-UP

UPDATE: In probably the least surprising development ever…

Taylor Swift's THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT (Republic) leapfrogs our initial estimates for Zach Bryan's The Great American Bar Scene (Warner) and will log a 12th consecutive week at #1. Yesterday, with incomplete post-holiday info, we had given the edge for #1 to Bryan. However, updated D2C shipments now put TTPD's projected album sales at 73k, giving Swift around 142k in total activity.

After debuting in last week's Top 20 with one day of sales and streams, The Great American Bar Scene will move into the #2 slot in its first full week.

[G-Reg]

Bummer but Taylor played the game and Zach didn’t. Too bad it doesn’t actually reflect the most popular album of the week.

[theycallmedualian]

Jul 10, 2024 10:54:09 GMT -5 G-Reg said:

Bummer but Taylor played the game and Zach didn’t. Too bad it doesn’t actually reflect the most popular album of the week.

Lol what is this take? 😆

Of course TTPD is the most popular album of the week, just not the most streamed.

a physical purchase holds a lot more “popularity weight” than streams

[Choco]

What game did Zach need to play? I don't think he has the stanbase to fuel multiple variant purchases.

As for Taylor, whatever lol. Business as usual for her.

[seak05]

Jul 10, 2024 11:03:49 GMT -5 Choco said:

What game did Zach need to play? I don't think he has the stanbase to fuel multiple variant purchases.

As for Taylor, whatever lol. Business as usual for her.

Zach decided to spread his sales out. He released on a Thursday so all of his first day digital sales, and his first day streams actually all counted last week..but he wanted a July 4th release. Then he's not shipping his physical sales (cds and vinyls) till the fall when they''ll have more impact as votes are being tabulated for award season. If he'd concentrated all of his sales during one week, his numbers would have been higher. 

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yeah. Obviously a difference of 8k was easily overcome by the usual tactics. It will take something major if she is to challenge Eminem next week if HITS early predictions are any indication.

[iHype.]

It doesn’t really matter if Zach released the album on Friday instead or even had CDs ready. Taylor would’ve obviously just kept releasing more variants and shipping more product. She’s doing just above his projection because that was intentional. She is always going to to do just enough push to pull ahead if it’s reasonable.

This is basically akin to the BTS “Butter” run that Summer. One group is well aware of the parameters they need every single week to go #1 and have organized it and know exactly how much sales and versions will always put them ahead in real time.

Only shot Eminem has is if he does 250K+ and the number becomes just too much effort to try to topple. Eventually at one point Taylor’s team moves on since you can’t spend eternity trying to boost an album every week, but in general it’s messy for Billboard and chart integrity when the chart becomes hostage to how much 1 group wants to manipulate it each week.

[G-Reg]

Jul 10, 2024 11:03:49 GMT -5 Choco said:

What game did Zach need to play? I don't think he has the stanbase to fuel multiple variant purchases.

As for Taylor, whatever lol. Business as usual for her.

You ask what the game is and then go on to literally describe the game.

[musiclife]

Jul 10, 2024 10:54:09 GMT -5 G-Reg said:

Bummer but Taylor played the game and Zach didn’t. Too bad it doesn’t actually reflect the most popular album of the week.

The album projected to stay #1 with the most units isn't the most popular. This is one of the hottest takes I've ever seen.

[musiclife]

Jul 10, 2024 11:29:44 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It doesn’t really matter if Zach released the album on Friday instead or even had CDs ready. Taylor would’ve obviously just kept releasing more variants and shipping more product. She’s doing just above his projection because that was intentional. She is always going to to do just enough push to pull ahead if it’s reasonable.

This is basically akin to the BTS “Butter” run that Summer. One group is well aware of the parameters they need every single week to go #1 and have organized it and know exactly how much sales and versions will always put them ahead in real time.

Only shot Eminem has is if he does 250K+ and the number becomes just too much effort to try to topple. Eventually at one point Taylor’s team moves on since you can’t spend eternity trying to boost an album every week, but in general it’s messy for Billboard and chart integrity when the chart becomes hostage to how much 1 group wants to manipulate it each week.

Yawn

[theycallmedualian]

Jul 10, 2024 11:29:44 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It doesn’t really matter if Zach released the album on Friday instead or even had CDs ready. Taylor would’ve obviously just kept releasing more variants and shipping more product. She’s doing just above his projection because that was intentional. She is always going to to do just enough push to pull ahead if it’s reasonable.

This is basically akin to the BTS “Butter” run that Summer. One group is well aware of the parameters they need every single week to go #1 and have organized it and know exactly how much sales and versions will always put them ahead in real time.

Only shot Eminem has is if he does 250K+ and the number becomes just too much effort to try to topple. Eventually at one point Taylor’s team moves on since you can’t spend eternity trying to boost an album every week, but in general it’s messy for Billboard and chart integrity when the chart becomes hostage to how much 1 group wants to manipulate it each week.

TTPD is just like the BTS summer run except it’s 10 week #1 from streaming alone 😉

[G-Reg]

Jul 10, 2024 11:39:10 GMT -5 musiclife said:

Jul 10, 2024 10:54:09 GMT -5 G-Reg said:

Bummer but Taylor played the game and Zach didn’t. Too bad it doesn’t actually reflect the most popular album of the week.

The album projected to stay #1 with the most units isn't the most popular. This is one of the hottest takes I've ever seen.

I think it's pretty obvious what I mean here. His Thursday release invalidated his Day 1 points from this chart week. And Taylor released even more versions of her album, I'm assuming it's most likely people that already bought the album that are buying more copies of it. Going by the rules, yes Taylor is #1. Not denying it. But in terms of streams, buzz, press and engagement, the most popular album over the last few days is Zach's. Maybe you'd disagree with that, but blatantly calling it "one of the hottest takes you've ever seen" means that you can't see nuance.

[fridayteenage]

Yes I remember when bts never had a single week topping streaming. Oh wait, that's still the case

[Music Fan]

Taylor being Taylor. Not surprised... but also gets old.

If it was a better Zach album, I'd be more annoyed. But I was a bit let down and he did this to himself by releasing on Thursday. Though, as mentioned, Taylor would've likely pulled something stronger to stay at #1 anyway has he released Friday, and she may likely have achieved staying at #1, anyway.

[seak05]

Jul 10, 2024 11:50:21 GMT -5 G-Reg said:

Jul 10, 2024 11:39:10 GMT -5 musiclife said:

The album projected to stay #1 with the most units isn't the most popular. This is one of the hottest takes I've ever seen.

I think it's pretty obvious what I mean here. His Thursday release invalidated his Day 1 points from this chart week. And Taylor released even more versions of her album, I'm assuming it's most likely people that already bought the album that are buying more copies of it. Going by the rules, yes Taylor is #1. Not denying it. But in terms of streams, buzz, press and engagement, the most popular album over the last few days is Zach's. Maybe you'd disagree with that, but blatantly calling it "one of the hottest takes you've ever seen" means that you can't see nuance.

FYI Taylor didn't release any more versions of her album. She re-stocked previously existing versions with signed versions. People want to buy cds that she has signed. I'm sure fans of other artists would also appreciate signed versions.  

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

The chart is based off of its own structure and going from a Friday to Thursday timeframe, you have a snapshot of the most “popular” album (most consumed, sales and streams) but that's Billboarz's own definition. if you go by a day to day scale, the results would be different anyway. Just because Zack went with a Thursday release doesn't take away that his album was likely the most popular using a different range of dates. Taylor plays by Hits/Billboard's definition. Luckily it's not the only measure.

[G-Reg]

Jul 10, 2024 12:34:49 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

The chart is based off of its own structure and going from a Friday to Thursday timeframe, you have a snapshot of the most “popular” album (most consumed, sales and streams) but that's Billboarz's own definition. if you go by a day to day scale, the results would be different anyway. Just because Zack went with a Thursday release doesn't take away that his album was likely the most popular using a different range of dates. Taylor plays by Hits/Billboard's definition. Luckily it's not the only measure.

This! Written more eloquently than I ever could. Thank you.

Jul 10, 2024 12:30:20 GMT -5 seak05 said:

Jul 10, 2024 11:50:21 GMT -5 G-Reg said:

I think it's pretty obvious what I mean here. His Thursday release invalidated his Day 1 points from this chart week. And Taylor released even more versions of her album, I'm assuming it's most likely people that already bought the album that are buying more copies of it. Going by the rules, yes Taylor is #1. Not denying it. But in terms of streams, buzz, press and engagement, the most popular album over the last few days is Zach's. Maybe you'd disagree with that, but blatantly calling it "one of the hottest takes you've ever seen" means that you can't see nuance.

FYI Taylor didn't release any more versions of her album. She re-stocked previously existing versions with signed versions. People want to buy cds that she has signed. I'm sure fans of other artists would also appreciate signed versions.  

Thanks for that info. Taylor is a smart businesswoman, has a loyal fanbase, and is hardworking and ambitious. Good for her.

[theycallmedualian]

Jul 10, 2024 11:56:34 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Yes I remember when bts never had a single week topping streaming. Oh wait, that's still the case

Yeah, that’s the deal right here: T swift-haters just be making wild statements that aren’t true, and then wonder why swiffers rebuke them so hard.

TTPD is objectively the strongest streaming album of all behind OTAAT. This is a fact. But leave it to them make insinuations like TTPD’s run was entirely due to variants. Lol

[Taylor.]

The (main) issue with Butter was that overseas fans were fundraising and sending money raised to people in the US to purchase as many units of the song as possible. That's not really happening here.

[iHype.]

Jul 10, 2024 12:50:12 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

The (main) issue with Butter was that overseas fans were fundraising and sending money raised to people in the US to purchase as many units of the song as possible. That's not really happening here.

There was many issues with Butter and ofcourse it’s not going to be any exactly similar situation in all aspects to TTPD.

The main issue I would say was not even international fans sending money, but the fact repeated purchases from the same people continued to endlessly count. If only their US fans crowdfunded each week to buy a song dozens of times over and over again it’d still be the same level of gaming lol.

TTPD has dozens of versions at this point month after month and new ones keep coming (or limited versions like “signed copies” get reissued in stock). Those absolutely have been the reason for the long continued run at #1 regardless of her great streaming (or she wouldn’t be releasing them duh). I would definitely say the album was way bigger than Butter regardless of versions, but in both instances there was a run at #1 that was padded by version spam & repeated buying like no other run on the chart prior.

If one album is bought by a person once, and another is bought by a person five times (and 4/5 of those copies likely sit untouched and never opened…) I wouldn’t say the latter instance is 5x more popular even if it ends up getting counted as such. But realistically I imagine it’s hard for Billboard to impose any rules or monitoring at the moment that would be easy implemented and not cause considerable backlash so I don’t really blame them. However the fans who argue you down because you see and acknowledge a flaw with the way Billboard tracks that is just… lmao. You can’t force us to not see or comment on it just because your beloved Queen can do no wrong in your eyes.

[clsvltn]

The only way Taylor can keep going now is if she ships the Anthology CDs or does something really huge. A few variants will not be able to stop Eminem. We don't know exactly if he will have physicals available or is saving those so that will come into play. Plus depending on how the album is actually received but HDD is reporting estimates now of 350,000 first week.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Jul 10, 2024 12:50:12 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

The (main) issue with Butter was that overseas fans were fundraising and sending money raised to people in the US to purchase as many units of the song as possible. That's not really happening here.

Not only this but let's be real, "Butter" wasn't even close to #1 without the organization and mass purchasing tactics/shady fan-driven practices (it's streams and radio numbers were practically non-existent). TTPD is within striking distance of #1 already (good streams and sales) when they give it the slight edge it needs to secure the top spot. People always love comparing any and every tactic to that "Butter" situation years ago, when the details are quite different. That's why (IMO) she's even trying here. I doubt she tries with Eminem because it's not going to be close. And how long would TTPD run had been without all the extended variants post debut week? 9, 10? Still would be a long reign regardless so I feel people are being exaggerative of its overall impact to this album's success. Has it helped? Absolutely. Is it largely responsible for its success? Nope.

Anyway, this figure seems more inline with what I would expect. I knew those numbers yesterday were off!

[theycallmedualian]

Jul 10, 2024 13:20:46 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Jul 10, 2024 12:50:12 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

The (main) issue with Butter was that overseas fans were fundraising and sending money raised to people in the US to purchase as many units of the song as possible. That's not really happening here.

There was many issues with Butter and ofcourse it’s not going to be any exactly similar situation in all aspects to TTPD.

The main issue I would say was not even international fans sending money, but the fact repeated purchases from the same people continued to endlessly count. 

 isnt this EXACTLY how streaming works tho? hahahhahah

TTPD has dozens of versions at this point month after month and new ones keep coming (or limited versions like “signed copies” get reissued in stock). Those absolutely have been the reason for the long continued run at #1 regardless of her great streaming (or she wouldn’t be releasing them duh). I would definitely say the album was way bigger than Butter regardless of versions, but in both instances there was a run at #1 that was padded by version spam & repeated buying like no other run on the chart prior.

yeah no. this comment is even dumber than your last one. an utter nonsensical daydream with zero bearing on reality, entirely fueled by your irrational dislike of Swift and therefore an inability to give her any credit where credit is due - an exposé on how your mind has been completely fried when it comes to anything regarding her. 

i hope you recover.