Billboard Hot 100: 11/23/2024

[jebsib]

^ Jeng, Rhythmic makes 10

[Choco]

The Lil Nas X song better be a top tier bop or the numbers are gonna be very ugly.

[Gary]

Could Gracie Abrams Catch Shaboozey Before He Sets the Hot 100 Record?
This week's The Contenders looks at Abrams' fast-growing hit's chance to match the Hot 100 smash going for further history.


By Andrew Unterberger

11/13/2024


Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s 17 weeks now for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade, and second place all-time. The only song still standing in its way from standing alone atop all Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the imminent release of his new song “Light Again,” though we’ll see if he still has the viral skills to be able to protect his own chart record — “J Christ,” his first release of 2024, topped out at No. 69.)

Anyway, it’s the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which is mostly slipping in its weekly performance – though it was actually up 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales chart – but not falling fast enough for anything below it to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song might get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday-announced (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations, where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.”

Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there’s a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up from behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” didn’t look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The Secret of Us, but it’s continued to grow every week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week, and even passing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs, as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok has helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as has a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world’s biggest tour as a continued platform, as Abrams continues opening Canadian dates on Taylor Swift’s Eras trek through early December.)

Now, the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while also climbing to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could take it to the Hot 100’s 10 next week – and so far, it’s just kept climbing. The question of if it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey might come down to radio – of course, “A Bar Song” has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while “That’s So True” is just beginning to draw airplay, behind Abrams’ other contemporaneous hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry.” But “True” is slowly gaining steam there, too, so if it continues to grow while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long.

Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Holiday season rush begins? We’ll see, but if nothing else, it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.

Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a good week for Interscope on the charts, as between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists are also likely beneficiaries of Friday’s Grammy nominations: “Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish – a Grammy darling since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 on her debut album – has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit Me Hard and Soft and song and record of the year for “Birds of a Feather.”

Both songs should stay in the mix at the Hot 100’s top next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board – “Feather” holds atop Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” may challenge for its first week atop Streaming Songs next frame. But it’s unclear if either has the cards left to play to help get either over the hump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy nominee, the bump there for either is unlikely to be major enough to be the difference-maker.

[shakemaki]

Nov 13, 2024 8:20:31 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I remember when Blurred Lines was storming up the charts, and it also had like 8 different formats going all at once. It even got a +1M audience update on AC, lol. Who remembers that?

Dark times indeed.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 11 » / « 13 »

1(=) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 82.54(+0.53)
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 74.05(-0.41)
3(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 63.47(-0.64)
4(=) Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay 63.23(-0.37)

5(=) Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER 61.48(-0.60) -
6(+1) Post Malone - I Had Some Help (feat. Morgan Wallen) 58.42(+0.05)+
7(-1) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 57.43(-1.04)
8(=) Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile 55.34(+0.20)
9(+1) Myles Smith - Stargazing 49.66(+0.68)
10(-1) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 49.52(-0.37)

21(+5) Tim Mcgraw - One Bad Habit 31.87(+1.49)

43(+2) Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody 20.26(+0.62)

58(+1) Chris Brown - Sensational f/Davido & Lojay 17.34(+0.69)

[avamaxstan]

That's So True is not the song I'd ideally want to defeat the evil, but these are desperate times so I'm on board and will be mass streaming Miss Gracie!

[clsvltn]

The verses are fantastic on That's so true but idk about the chorus yet lol

[artistry]

Die With A Smile should be at least in 3rd place on the radio estimate airplay with 65.00 by now. It should be way more closer to A Bar Song. And how in the heck is the latter still seeing increase? It is ridiculous at this point.

[avamaxstan]

^Because corporate radio has zero curiosity or imagination. They'd rather play the same 3-4 reliable songs 24/7 for months on end until they're dead in the ground, rather than rotate their playlists and take chances on emerging songs.

[Choco]

Isn't Shaboozey getting more formats to play his song? It has nothing to do with imagination or curiosity lol.

[musiclife]

I'm 100% convinced this whole Shaboozy thing is payola. This is why nobody listens to the radio anymore. This has been the most stale radio has ever been.

[lazer]

Who by Jimin streams are very suspicious.

[shakemaki]

The only cases I can think of in years and years and years that legit said “payola” on radio are a couple Taylor ones. Most notably LWYMMD, which was the most blatant case of label payola I’ve ever seen. But otherwise, this payola mess is always such a reach.

[clsvltn]

I enjoyed A Bar Song but I am baffled by the monster success. Honestly, more than anything, I think it just is a safe song to put on and forget about, it is mindless. like many pop songs and that is fine. It reminds me of how Pink was always called safe and she would cash in on the soccer mom demo for years and be reliable for a hit. I don't think A Bar Song is worthy of the longest running #1 of all time though. It didn't feel like it had that much impact, I haven't heard anyone discussing it in weeks or months but radio is stale and people are just streaming it maybe in the background or something. It doesn't feel like a cultural movement. Someone else mentioned Old Town Road and THAT felt like a cultural MOMENT. Granted I am not sure if that deserves the title of longest running either personally LOL but I at least understand it. I heard way more about that from way more age groups, demos, etc. It was cool for Shaboozey to be a black country male at #1 but it seems like such a non event song that has long expired yet is somehow still #1.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

When I think of all the songs that reached double digit weeks at #1 over the last 10-15 years, most of them were terribly plain, boring, dull, and annoyingly so. “A Bar Song” to me is probably the most interesting of the ones coming to mind. (“Old town road” was weird in a fun way but a very of-the-moment type song. “Despacito” was a fun moment as well). If a song were to have the record, I’d much rather it be something like this over something dull like “happy” or “flowers”. And realistically, it’s more likely to be a dull song hold the record so if this does it, in my mind we got lucky.

[avamaxstan]

Nov 14, 2024 13:47:11 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

The only cases I can think of in years and years and years that legit said “payola” on radio are a couple Taylor ones. Most notably LWYMMD, which was the most blatant case of label payola I’ve ever seen. But otherwise, this payola mess is always such a reach.

Aren't those first week radio deals that most big artists get essentially payola?

[morgan96]

Probably none of these songs would have deserved all these weeks at number one, not even Despacito, Lil Nax or Last Night (and I say this as a Morgan fan). Shaboozey is a one hit wonder. His latest album is a huge flop and the bar song isn't even original, it uses a sample of an old song. Anyway last night had no help, no remixes, no featuring, no 150 versions and no thanks to Beyoncé was necessary.

[sayhey]

Nov 9, 2024 11:35:59 GMT -5 stormlover74 said:

Nov 9, 2024 10:02:15 GMT -5 sayhey said:

I doubt it. Disease was supposed to be the big lead single. Reminds me of when she released Perfect illusion and it quickly disappeared

It does look like a Perfect Illusion kinda situation. Well, let's hope there's a Million Reasons ahead of her this era lol. That song was Super Bowl Halftime-fueled but at least it served as a proper promotional single for the Joanne album. Hopefully, her new album produces at least one memorable single.

As for Shaboozey's ABS, I'm very impressed with its longevity atop the Hot 100. It's my understanding that it's projected to remain at #1 for an 18th week and will likely score a 19th week after that. So it could very well become the first song to ever spend 20 weeks atop the chart.

I saw a pretty heated discussion in this thread about whether ABS "feels" as big as other blockbuster, long-running #1s like OTR. Obviously, it hasn't had a strong "cultural impact", as its success mostly lies in how broad its radio appeal is. The song is very serviceable to pop, HAC, AC, country, rhythmic and to a lesser extent urban and UAC radio. Hence its massive longevity atop the radio charts, which in turn led to great and consistent streaming numbers and its Hot 100 dominance (amid the relatively weak competition in the charts atm). Its success makes perfect sense given how successfully it caters to so many different demographics. Whether the song will be remembered in the long-run remains to be seen but its current success is very legitimate imo.

[jenglisbe]

In terms of radio, I think much worse than "A Bar Song" still doing well is the fact that Taylor Swift, Myles Swift, and Teddy Swims are all top 10 at Top 40 right now with songs people don't seem to give a fuck about. At least "A Bar Song" is still top 10 in streaming.
(Having said that, I certainly don't think radio and streaming should match exactly since they likely have some difference audiences, but it's wild to see songs top 10 at Top 40 that aren't even top 50 in streaming.)

I think people should also keep in mind that Billboard has never said the Hot 100 is supposed to represent the songs that "feels" the biggest, and for that matter the year-end Hot 100 isn't either. These charts just show which songs had the most chart points for the week (and year). The same thing can happen in other forms of media; for instance, I've seen more discussion on this board (and even other places) regarding The Substance than any other recent movie. It feels big to me, yet The Substance has only made $16 million total at the U.S. box office.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 14, 2024 15:42:18 GMT -5 avamaxstan said:

Nov 14, 2024 13:47:11 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

The only cases I can think of in years and years and years that legit said “payola” on radio are a couple Taylor ones. Most notably LWYMMD, which was the most blatant case of label payola I’ve ever seen. But otherwise, this payola mess is always such a reach.

Aren't those first week radio deals that most big artists get essentially payola?

Nah. Likely radio using big artists’ new singles to their advantage. Don’t forget: it’s a two-way street.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 14, 2024 15:46:53 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

Probably none of these songs would have deserved all these weeks at number one, not even Despacito, Lil Nax or Last Night (and I say this as a Morgan fan). Shaboozey is a one hit wonder. His latest album is a huge flop and the bar song isn't even original, it uses a sample of an old song. Anyway last night had no help, no remixes, no featuring, no 150 versions and no thanks to Beyoncé was necessary.

You keep saying one-hit-wonder like it’s a bad thing. Anyway last night is the most faceless double-digit number one of all time.

[morgan96]

If a single song is so big that it overshadows an entire career, yes, it's a problem. But I believe that in his case, despite everything, he will have a lot of help and 150 featuring are coming for the next year.

[morgan96]

Nov 14, 2024 16:25:54 GMT -5 morgan96 said:

If a single song is so big that it overshadows an entire career, yes, it's a problem. But I believe that in his case, despite everything, he will have a lot of help and 150 featuring are coming for the next year.

Morgan already has 106 milion certificated single sold in us. Iconic
Tonight Neon moon (new version) is coming.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2024 » / « 11 » / « 14 »

1(=) Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy) 82.76(+0.22)
2(=) Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso 73.70(-0.34)
3(=) Hozier - Too Sweet 63.08(-0.39)
4(=) Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay 62.85(-0.38)

5(=) Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER 61.05(-0.43)
6(=) Post Malone - I Had Some Help (feat. Morgan Wallen) 58.40(-0.02)
7(=) Teddy Swims - Lose Control 56.98(-0.45)
8(=) Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile 55.63(+0.28)
9(=) Myles Smith - Stargazing 50.07(+0.41)
10(=) Benson Boone - Beautiful Things 48.92(-0.60)

21(=) Tim Mcgraw - One Bad Habit 32.83(+0.96)

43(=) Morgan Wallen - Love Somebody 20.89(+0.63)

52(+6) Chris Brown - Sensational f/Davido & Lojay 17.99(+0.64)

-(-) Snoop Dogg - Gorgeous f/Jhene Aiko 6.62(+0.65) +

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[artistry]

Die With A Smile is getting closer. I would love to see it be able to overtake A Bar Song this week.

[Enigma.]

Oh next week it is - another 3% drop would give ABS 213 points and with 1% increase DWAS will be at 215. COME THROUGH LADY MARS!

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 8, 2024 3:51:43 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Mid-Week Releases:

New Singles:
clipping. - Keep Pushing
青葉市子 [Ichiko Aoba] - Lucifèrine
Imperial Triumphant - Hotel Sphinx
James Blake - Like The End
Squid - Crispy Skin
Alien Chicks - Babe
Bleach Lab - Drown
Julia Holter - The Laugh Is in the Eyes
LE SSERAFIM - Star Signs
WEDNESDAY CAMPANELLA - So Many Wishes
mary in the junkyard - this is my california
Angel Olsen - The Takeover
Prima Queen - Ugly
Matt Champion - Ash
bdrmm - John on the Ceiling
Superheaven - Long Gone
salute - Heaven In Your Arms
John Glacier - Found
Heavy Moss - Treadmills
Divorce - Antarctica
Jude York - Those Were The Days
Bleach Lab - Drown
Koyo - Mile A Minute
YOASOBI - New me
Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs Pigs - Detroit
Say She She - Purple Snowflakes
Poppy Jean Crawford - Glamorous
Yuki Chiba - Dareda?
Young Nudy - Get Fucked Up
Iri - Pick you up
grape milk - GRUDGE
My First Story - BREAK IT DOWN

New Albums and EPs:
Matt Champion - Slint's Favorite
Young Nudy - Sli'merre 2
Stray Kids - GIANT
NCT DREAM - DREAMSCAPE
ENHYPEN - ROMANCE : UNTOLD -daydream-
Blvck Svm - michelinman
Various Artists - Arcane League of Legends: Season 2 (Official Soundtrack)
Zebrahead - I EP
Heymylan - Cry
KAIRO - ARE WE THERE YET?
DNASTY - Da Água ao Vinho
This Is The Glasshouse - 867
Postcard Nowhere - ephemera
Bahram - Khoone Khorshid
Xinlisupreme - Anime Hop
Mud Whale - Humans Pretending to Be Human
408 Darwin - Most Likely To Be A Rapper
KARDI - No Doubt EP
EOW - T.G.I.F! EP
BIG Naughty - "SIKE"!!
Reol - 秘色録 (HIDDEN BLUES)
Big Rush - OBLÍVIO
Jovem Dex - Olha Essa Arte