Billboard Hot 100: 12/07/2024

[85la]

Nov 23, 2024 11:42:48 GMT -5 sayhey said:

I have a question regarding Christmas songs' airplay. So, I believe they're ineligible to enter the various radio charts like Pop, AC, HAC etc but during the peak of the Christmas season they gain strong airplay on all of those formats, especially HAC and AC. Most AC stations (and some HAC ones) even switch to all-Christmas music for the entire season.

So, I know there's a Holiday Airplay chart, on which Mariah's AIWFCIY has spent a whopping 55 weeks at #1. RATCT has spent 30 weeks atop the chart and A Holly Jolly Christmas 20 weeks, with Feliz Navidad being the only other chart-topper there since 2010. My question basically is whether there's any published info about the exact overall airplay of those songs. I'm asking because they aren't included in the official AC/HAC/Pop charts, which mostly "freeze", with the actual Christmas songs receiving airplay being absent afaik. Also, if we have any info regarding their overall airplay, do we know which Christmas song has peaked with the highest AI? I would assume it'd be Mariah's AIWFCIY with something like 30M+? Or maybe even more? Thanks in advance if anyone knows anything about this!

In addition to what Darkest Hour and jenglisbe said, though AIWFCIY peaked at #11 on the airplay chart for the chart dated 12-31-2022, it probably peaked in actual audience when it ranked a little lower in position, but when audiences were higher, such as the late teens (interestingly, it peaked at #18 three years in a row from 2016-2018), or I'm thinking 2019 when it first reached #1 on the Hot 100 and before radio audiences really started to diminish with COVID. I checked the Hot 100 article for the chart week dated 12-28-2019, the second week it was #1 on the Hot 100 and when it ranked at #14 on the radio chart, and it had 42.9 million impressions:

"On Radio Songs, “Christmas” surges 27-14, gaining by 26% to 42.9 million in all-format airplay audience in the week ending Dec. 22, as it wins the Hot 100’s top Airplay Gainer award."
www.billboard.com/pro/hot-100-first-ever-christmas-double-up-mariah-carey/

It might have beat it in audience for those charts from previous years, but I didn't check them all.

It's also interesting how you mention that older holiday songs aren't allowed to chart on Pop Airplay, Hot AC, and AC, even though they receive the largest audience from the latter. Interestingly, brand new holiday songs released each year are allowed to chart on AC, many of them reaching #1, like Carey's Oh Santa! or Katy Perry's Cozy Little Christmas, giving the impression that those songs are more popular and receive more airplay than the older songs, when they actually receive only a few million impressions at most lol. I guess if they're pretty much just one year old, they're forever banned from all the genre charts (though can still chart on Holiday Airplay and Radio Songs), even though they receive up to tens of millions of impressions each year.

[andrebra]

Nov 23, 2024 13:55:49 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Nov 23, 2024 8:27:20 GMT -5 After Minutes said:

If Kendrick releases with actual promo for his next album and it has a full day of streaming Taylor's spotify record in the US isn't safe

What kind of flawed logic this? How about you focus on the performance of THIS album and not the imaginary next album? 

How was that a crazy assumption? If he released at midnight and people knew it was coming, the numbers would clearly be very huge so I don’t think what was said was too hyperbolic.

[Ling-Ling]

Exactly. Since when has Kendrick needed "Drake hype" to move units and streams? I think Damn showed what he can do with a proper lead single, when it moved 600,000+ and had one of the biggest streaming weeks ever at the time.

[magik]

Drake stans are just being Drake stans. It's not unrealistic to believe had Kendrick had the full tracking day, his numbers would be bigger. I literally found out when I was at work and couldn't listen to it until I got home several hours later.

[Enigma.]

Well bigger, yes, but not 3 times bigger what some people were suggesting. He tends to open with around 5M for the most popular track so I would guess this time around it would have been something similar (and might still be when the Saturday numbers are out later today).

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

This live performance was done in LA. They really are enjoying themselves, as much as in the song's video:

[Darkest Hour]

United States Apple Music Top Songs - Saturday (03:32 EST)
1 (+1) Kendrick Lamar - squabble up
2 (-1) Kendrick Lamar - wacced out murals
3 (+1) Kendrick Lamar - tv off (feat. Lefty Gunplay)
4 (-1) Kendrick Lamar & SZA - luther
5 (+1) Kendrick Lamar - hey now (feat. Dody6)
6 (-1) Kendrick Lamar - man at the garden
7 (=) Kendrick Lamar - reincarnated
8 (=) Kendrick Lamar - dodger blue (feat. Wallie the Sensei, Roddy Ricch & Siete7x)
9 (=) Kendrick Lamar - heart pt. 6
10 (=) Kendrick Lamar - peekaboo (feat. AzChike)
11 (=) Kendrick Lamar - gnx (feat. Hitta J3, YoungThreat & Peysoh)
12 (=) Kendrick Lamar - gloria (feat. SZA)

36 (+24) Cynthia Erivo - Defying Gravity (feat. Ariana Grande)
58 (+39) Ariana Grande - Popular
102 (+92) Ariana Grande & Cynthia Erivo - What Is This Feeling?
134 NEW Wicked Movie Cast & Ariana Grande - No One Mourns the Wicked (feat. Andy Nyman, Courtney-Mae Briggs, Jeff Goldblum, Sharon D. Clarke & Jenna Boyd)
164 NEW Jonathan Bailey - Dancing Through Life (feat. Ariana Grande, Ethan Slater, Marissa Bode & Cynthia Erivo)
185 NEW Cynthia Erivo - The Wizard And I (feat. Michelle Yeoh)

United States Apple Music Top Albums - Saturday (03:52 EST)
1 (=) Kendrick Lamar - GNX
2 (=) Wicked Movie Cast, Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande - Wicked: The Soundtrack
7 (-1) Wizkid - Morayo
10 (+8) J. Cole - The Warm Up
15 (-2) Nicki Minaj - The Pinkprint (Tenth Anniversary Edition)
16 (+1) Sheff G - Proud Of Myself
19 (=) Finesse2tymes - Art of War

[Enigma.]

Nov 24, 2024 2:05:50 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Well bigger, yes, but not 3 times bigger what some people were suggesting. He tends to open with around 5M for the most popular track so I would guess this time around it would have been something similar (and might still be when the Saturday numbers are out later today).

4.65M for the highest track, about what I predicted.

[thegreatdivine]

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Now y'all have every excuse in the book for Kendrick. When he was dropping diss tracks aimed at Drake this summer, it didn't matter when they dropped, they still put up massive numbers eventually so use that same logic for the album he released on Friday. He'll still have 6.5 days out of the entire tracking week so he should do massive numbers regardless if he was always going to do them.

Tyler, the Creator just dropped an album and had less than 4 tracking days and still managed a 300k debut. Y'all have been insisting Kendrick is the biggest rapper in the world since he "vanquished" Drake, well now is the time for him to prove it with the numbers. That's all there is to it, really.

I, for one, would love to see him put up massive numbers, if only because there aren't that many artists in hip-hop who can and seeing as Drake's next album won't be a rap album, hip-hop will need all the success and representation it can manage on the charts.

[85la]

Really surprised Kendrick's songs increased so much on day two!! And I don't think it's just due to there being a full 24 hours. This album could truly dominate this Holiday season, with Squabble Up strongly vying for (at least this one week) #1!!

[otaviohmg]

Nov 23, 2024 11:53:38 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Nov 23, 2024 10:54:38 GMT -5 otaviohmg said:

his release strategy was way smarter than tyler in chart terms. he will break the for all the dogs top 10 debut positions record

This isn't a record btw lol. 

You're right because that way I said, it was really confusing. What I meant is that Kendrick might surpassed Drake (FATD era) and himself (MM&TBS era) in the most songs in the top 10 simultaneously. Even though Mariah is coming back, I think he will have 8 songs at the top 10.

SPOILER: Click to show

{MOST SONGS IN THE HOT 100 TOP 10 SIMULTANEOUSLY (3 OR MORE ENTRIES):}Taylor Swift - 10 songs (Mid era)
Drake - 9 songs (CLB era)
Drake - 8 songs (HL era)
Drake — 7 songs (FATD era)
Drake, Juice WRLD, The Beatles, Morgan Wallen - 5 songs
J. Cole, Lil Wayne, Post Malone, 50 Cent, T-Pain, Future, Bad Bunny, Kendrick Lamar, Harry Styles, Taylor Swift, Morgan Wallen - 4 songs
Drake, Taylor Swift, DaBaby, Lil Uzi Vert, Ariana Grande, Cardi B, The Chainsmokers, Justin Bieber, Iggy Azalea, Adele, Akon, Chris Brown, Usher, Ashanti, Bee Gees, Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Nas X, Morgan Wallen - 3 songs

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 10 reposted by Gary }1 - - 1 First Person Shooter, Drake Featuring J. Cole 1
2 - - 1 IDGAF, Drake Featuring Yeat 2
3 - - 1 Virginia Beach, Drake 3
4 1 - 10 Paint The Town Red, Doja Cat 1
5 - - 1 Calling For You, Drake Featuring 21 Savage 5
6 18 - 4 Slime You Out, Drake Featuring SZA 1
7 2 - 44 Snooze, SZA 2
8 - - 1 Daylight, Drake 8
9 3 - 23 Cruel Summer, Taylor Swift 3
10 - - 1 Fear Of Heights, Drake 10

[sayhey]

Nov 23, 2024 15:56:32 GMT -5 85la said:

Nov 23, 2024 11:42:48 GMT -5 sayhey said:

In addition to what Darkest Hour and jenglisbe said, though AIWFCIY peaked at #11 on the airplay chart for the chart dated 12-31-2022, it probably peaked in actual audience when it ranked a little lower in position, but when audiences were higher, such as the late teens (interestingly, it peaked at #18 three years in a row from 2016-2018), or I'm thinking 2019 when it first reached #1 on the Hot 100 and before radio audiences really started to diminish with COVID. I checked the Hot 100 article for the chart week dated 12-28-2019, the second week it was #1 on the Hot 100 and when it ranked at #14 on the radio chart, and it had 42.9 million impressions:

"On Radio Songs, “Christmas” surges 27-14, gaining by 26% to 42.9 million in all-format airplay audience in the week ending Dec. 22, as it wins the Hot 100’s top Airplay Gainer award."
www.billboard.com/pro/hot-100-first-ever-christmas-double-up-mariah-carey/

It might have beat it in audience for those charts from previous years, but I didn't check them all.

It's also interesting how you mention that older holiday songs aren't allowed to chart on Pop Airplay, Hot AC, and AC, even though they receive the largest audience from the latter. Interestingly, brand new holiday songs released each year are allowed to chart on AC, many of them reaching #1, like Carey's Oh Santa! or Katy Perry's Cozy Little Christmas, giving the impression that those songs are more popular and receive more airplay than the older songs, when they actually receive only a few million impressions at most lol. I guess if they're pretty much just one year old, they're forever banned from all the genre charts (though can still chart on Holiday Airplay and Radio Songs), even though they receive up to tens of millions of impressions each year.

Interesting! Thanks for all the info guys (also jenglisbe and Darkest Hour). 42.9M is a very impressive AI peak for a Christmas song, that's nice to know!

And yes, I always found it misleading how new Christmas songs top the AC charts with AIs that are miniscule compared to the enormous airplay received by the Christmas standards on the same format. Last Christmas, Cher's DJ Play a Christmas Song peaked at #1 on AC for 4 weeks, while songs like AIWFCIY and RATCT were receiving incomparably higher amounts of airplay there, while being blocked from appearing on the chart. This situation should definitely be addressed imo. 

[thegreatdivine]

Nov 24, 2024 9:11:51 GMT -5 otaviohmg said:

Nov 23, 2024 11:53:38 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

This isn't a record btw lol. 

You're right because that way I said, it was really confusing. What I meant is that Kendrick might surpassed Drake (FATD era) and himself (MM&TBS era) in the most songs in the top 10 simultaneously. Even though Mariah is coming back, I think he will have 8 songs at the top 10.

SPOILER: Click to show

{MOST SONGS IN THE HOT 100 TOP 10 SIMULTANEOUSLY (3 OR MORE ENTRIES):}Taylor Swift - 10 songs (Mid era)
Drake - 9 songs (CLB era)
Drake - 8 songs (HL era)
Drake — 7 songs (FATD era)
Drake, Juice WRLD, The Beatles, Morgan Wallen - 5 songs
J. Cole, Lil Wayne, Post Malone, 50 Cent, T-Pain, Future, Bad Bunny, Kendrick Lamar, Harry Styles, Taylor Swift, Morgan Wallen - 4 songs
Drake, Taylor Swift, DaBaby, Lil Uzi Vert, Ariana Grande, Cardi B, The Chainsmokers, Justin Bieber, Iggy Azalea, Adele, Akon, Chris Brown, Usher, Ashanti, Bee Gees, Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Nas X, Morgan Wallen - 3 songs

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 10 reposted by Gary }1 - - 1 First Person Shooter, Drake Featuring J. Cole 1
2 - - 1 IDGAF, Drake Featuring Yeat 2
3 - - 1 Virginia Beach, Drake 3
4 1 - 10 Paint The Town Red, Doja Cat 1
5 - - 1 Calling For You, Drake Featuring 21 Savage 5
6 18 - 4 Slime You Out, Drake Featuring SZA 1
7 2 - 44 Snooze, SZA 2
8 - - 1 Daylight, Drake 8
9 3 - 23 Cruel Summer, Taylor Swift 3
10 - - 1 Fear Of Heights, Drake 10

Oh yeah, I can definitely see him getting anywhere from 4-7 spots in the top 10. I think 8 might be out of reach but you never know.

It'll all depend on how stable on streaming the songs are able to remain for the rest of the tracking week. I'm here for hip-hop representation on the charts because 2024 has generally been a very weak year for the genre in that regard. 

[magik]

Nov 24, 2024 8:47:38 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Now y'all have every excuse in the book for Kendrick. When he was dropping diss tracks aimed at Drake this summer, it didn't matter when they dropped, they still put up massive numbers eventually so use that same logic for the album he released on Friday. He'll still have 6.5 days out of the entire tracking week so he should do massive numbers regardless if he was always going to do them.

Tyler, the Creator just dropped an album and had less than 4 tracking days and still managed a 300k debut. Y'all have been insisting Kendrick is the biggest rapper in the world since he "vanquished" Drake, well now is the time for him to prove it with the numbers. That's all there is to it, really.

I, for one, would love to see him put up massive numbers, if only because there aren't that many artists in hip-hop who can and seeing as Drake's next album won't be a rap album, hip-hop will need all the success and representation it can manage on the charts.

Passive aggressiveness for no reason. People speaking on hypotheticals is not making excuses. 

Him dropping diss tracks during one of the biggest moments of the summer is not the same as him dropping a surprise album in the middle of the day. lol We'll see how Drake performs when his next albums drop because everything post-beef has been a dud.

Anyway, I do wonder how the top 20 will look with Christmas rush coming + this Kendrick bomb. Does Kendrick have a chance to get #1 on the Hot 100 next week?

[jenglisbe]

I don't see how an album released in the middle of the day on Friday has much of a hindrance. We're not talking multiple days missing or something. At most it probably affects it like 10-20k for the week because it really just means he's missing the equivalent of like 12 hours on a Thursday when streams have settled down.

Nov 24, 2024 9:33:36 GMT -5 magik said:

Does Kendrick have a chance to get #1 on the Hot 100 next week?

I'd say he has more than a chance and is the favorite. He should be the favorite for #1 this week we are in, and if the songs hold at all he'd definitely be a threat next chart week. To this point the streams for holiday music have been way down this year. We'll see if that changes with Thanksgiving, but if not then that could change a lot of things for the Hot 100 this holiday season.

[thegreatdivine]

magik I'm speaking based on people on here insisting that Kendrick is now the biggest rapper in the world. All I'm saying is that that title comes with certain commercial expectations.

Kendrick should own the top 5 and most of the top 10 with his album bomb.

[mms82]

Nov 24, 2024 8:47:38 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Coulda, shoulda, woulda. Now y'all have every excuse in the book for Kendrick. When he was dropping diss tracks aimed at Drake this summer, it didn't matter when they dropped, they still put up massive numbers eventually so use that same logic for the album he released on Friday. He'll still have 6.5 days out of the entire tracking week so he should do massive numbers regardless if he was always going to do them.

Tyler, the Creator just dropped an album and had less than 4 tracking days and still managed a 300k debut. Y'all have been insisting Kendrick is the biggest rapper in the world since he "vanquished" Drake, well now is the time for him to prove it with the numbers. That's all there is to it, really.

I, for one, would love to see him put up massive numbers, if only because there aren't that many artists in hip-hop who can and seeing as Drake's next album won't be a rap album, hip-hop will need all the success and representation it can manage on the charts.

For all the hate Drake gets on the board, he’s still the biggest rapper around commercially (I agree, I really don’t think Kendrick takes that title and this doesn’t show it with a good not great debut after his biggest moment ever).

Similarly though, rap has been so boring lately and I hope we get more success from Kendrick (and ideally new rappers that haven’t been around since the 00s!) because it’s been a sad decade for rap so far

[stormlover74]

The coming weeks should be interesting. Based on last years point totals it's not a guarantee that a holiday song is #1 for the week after Thanksgiving (12/14) if one or two Kendrick songs hold up really well

[musiclife]

Has there been any projections for Kendrick yet?

[stormlover74]

Nov 24, 2024 11:33:02 GMT -5 musiclife said:

Has there been any projections for Kendrick yet?

Not yet

[thegreatdivine]

mms82 basically this. People on here were celebrating the end of Drake's career like he hasn't singlehandedly held rap up on the charts for over a decade. If he really is over, rap representation on the charts is doomed. Country and Pop are primed to have a bigger 2025 than they did this year and the same can't be said for rap. It's really bothersome of you're a fan of the genre.

[shakemaki]

Nov 24, 2024 13:37:16 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

mms82 basically this. People on here were celebrating the end of Drake's career like he hasn't singlehandedly held rap up on the charts for over a decade. If he really is over, rap representation on the charts is doomed. Country and Pop are primed to have a bigger 2025 than they did this year and the same can't be said for rap. It's really bothersome of you're a fan of the genre.

So Drake formerly being able to get a mere week where he could occupy the top ten on the hot 100 with an album bomb is what meant rap as a genre was alive and well? Lol, ok.

[mms82]

Nov 24, 2024 13:43:37 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

Nov 24, 2024 13:37:16 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

mms82 basically this. People on here were celebrating the end of Drake's career like he hasn't singlehandedly held rap up on the charts for over a decade. If he really is over, rap representation on the charts is doomed. Country and Pop are primed to have a bigger 2025 than they did this year and the same can't be said for rap. It's really bothersome of you're a fan of the genre.

So Drake formerly being able to get a mere week where he could occupy the top ten on the hot 100 with an album bomb is what meant rap as a genre was alive and well? Lol, ok.

I mean 2018 was Drake’s peak - yeah Scorpion was a crazy album bomb but also it had three massive massive hits with crazy longevity. I don’t think album bombs are indicative of success (for example Rich Baby Daddy (#11 peak) is definitely the biggest song off of FATD despite FATD having multiple top 10s and a number one off the album bomb).

We haven’t had a mega rap hit with longevity this year outside of Not Like Us (hopefully Sticky joins that ranks), and we had lots in 2018 (including three from Drake).

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Just heard Defying Gravity by the Wicked Soundtrack by Ariana. All of its 7:30. Great vocals as expected, but musically it felt a bit incoherent to me. While I don't to reach the Hot 100 levels of success of Cups, to cite an easy example that comes to mind (I'm avoiding mentioning We Don't Talk About Bruno since I consider that to be animated musical of sorts, a couple different breed), which had the advantage of being 2:08 long for the version that became the popular one. While Cups has defined choruses, Defying Gravity doesn't appear to have any chorus, although "defying gravity" is mentioned several times.

I can see Defying Gravity potentially becoming a Hot 100 if it doesn't get lost in the holiday shuffle. Perhaps if they release a shorter, under 4 minute version, it could gain some traction.

[Enigma.]

DG is an old song and well-known already. I don't think it'll become a remarkable hit because it just doesn't have the novelty of a NEW musical song.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

People need to get real with all the Drake/Kendrick talk. No one was ever saying Kendrick replaced or would replace Drake in the numbers/sales game. The battle of the "goat" was NEVER about that or there never would have been a single ounce of contention there as Drake has always had it numbers-wise. No need trying to change the narrative now to make it solely about figures. It was all about how Kendrick decimated Drake's reputation (which he absolutely did successfully) and how he took the metaphorical "throne" in terms of the eyes of the culture and community. Anyone who's trying to make it all about Kendrick outselling Drake or outperforming him numbers-wise is coming from a very disingenuous place IMO.

[shakemaki]

Nov 24, 2024 14:07:14 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Nov 24, 2024 13:43:37 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

So Drake formerly being able to get a mere week where he could occupy the top ten on the hot 100 with an album bomb is what meant rap as a genre was alive and well? Lol, ok.

I mean 2018 was Drake’s peak - yeah Scorpion was a crazy album bomb but also it had three massive massive hits with crazy longevity. I don’t think album bombs are indicative of success (for example Rich Baby Daddy (#11 peak) is definitely the biggest song off of FATD despite FATD having multiple top 10s and a number one off the album bomb).

We haven’t had a mega rap hit with longevity this year outside of Not Like Us (hopefully Sticky joins that ranks), and we had lots in 2018 (including three from Drake).

The problem is there is less of a trend lately for hooky pop-rap in hip hop. That’s why the Views and Scorpion singles were so huge too. This is what always fueled the genre on the charts. True rap smashes, like NLU, have always been very rare. That’s not a new thing.

[magik]

[areyoureadytojump]

^More:

[magik]

Damn, without the Dot bomb, "A Bar Song" would have returned (?) to #1.