Billboard Hot 100: 12/07/2024

[wavey.]

Nov 24, 2024 14:55:14 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

People need to get real with all the Drake/Kendrick talk. No one was ever saying Kendrick replaced or would replace Drake in the numbers/sales game. The battle of the "goat" was NEVER about that or there never would have been a single ounce of contention there as Drake has always had it numbers-wise. No need trying to change the narrative now to make it solely about figures. It was all about how Kendrick decimated Drake's reputation (which he absolutely did successfully) and how he took the metaphorical "throne" in terms of the eyes of the culture and community. Anyone who's trying to make it all about Kendrick outselling Drake or outperforming him numbers-wise is coming from a very disingenuous place IMO.

It's not just culture and throne. There is a side where sales/chart fans made it just as loud as the culture/throne talk. Just different algorithms I guess cause I saw both simultaneously.
(and unfortunately now Wayne is mixed in granted he was mentioned on the album) now and I'm over all this shit really, I just want the music.)

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 24, 2024 15:28:02 GMT -5 magik said:

Damn, without the Dot bomb, "A Bar Song" would have returned (?) to #1.

Not necessarily, but quite likely. It's quite likely the top 4 is fixed, with only the exact positions of the tracks that will occupy 2 through 4 to be determined. The remainder of Kendrick's tracks that could end up in the top 10 it remains to be seen whether streaming for them will hold up over the remainder of the week. Next week, will definitely see quite another reshuffling of the top 10, with most of Kendrick's tracks expected to fall and quite a few holiday songs re-entering the top 10 this holiday season. The remainder will be the songs that had already been charted, unless there are songs next week that manage to debut in the top 10. I guess the only complaint I expect then is about holiday songs crowding out current songs, which we should used to by now during this season of the year.

[mms82]

Nov 24, 2024 14:55:14 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

 Anyone who's trying to make it all about Kendrick outselling Drake or outperforming him numbers-wise is coming from a very disingenuous place IMO.

We're on the Billboard Hot 100 Forum. Drake is objectively bigger and more successful, more the GOAT when it comes to the Billboard Hot 100. There are plenty of places to discuss what elitist critics think, this thread is a Hot 100 thread judged based upon what people connect with more via streaming, radio, and sales — and on that metric Drake is the GOAT, although it would be awesome to see more hip hop success, be it from Kendrick or ideally new artists.

[clsvltn]

nice that Kendrick will be #1, a thought I'd never thought I'd say lol. Just glad he won't get the recrod

[wavey.]

It is cool to have the bay sound back in mainstream again. Trends really do cycle through the years🤯

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Yeah. It took Ariana being one credited as a featured artist on the song for that to happen. So, my guess is that the target audience is mostly teenager girls and young female adults. Also, there might be some older female audience that's at least familiar with the lyrics, since it is a remake of the song that was including the 2003 Wicked soundtrack.

[rimetm]

Nov 24, 2024 17:25:33 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Nov 24, 2024 15:28:02 GMT -5 magik said:

Damn, without the Dot bomb, "A Bar Song" would have returned (?) to #1.

Not necessarily, but quite likely. It's quite likely the top 4 is fixed, with only the exact positions of the tracks that will occupy 2 through 4 to be determined. The remainder of Kendrick's tracks that could end up in the top 10 it remains to be seen whether streaming for them will hold up over the remainder of the week. Next week, will definitely see quite another reshuffling of the top 10, with most of Kendrick's tracks expected to fall and quite a few holiday songs re-entering the top 10 this holiday season. The remainder will be the songs that had already been charted, unless there are songs next week that manage to debut in the top 10. I guess the only complaint I expect then is about holiday songs crowding out current songs, which we should used to by now during this season of the year.

While Squabble Up could potentially underperform, I don't think it'll underperform to the extent that it loses a whole 1/3 of its early projection, so the #1 is indeed pretty locked in. So yeah, with A Bar Song looking to claw itself a stable week thanks to country radio rebounding to offset pop trio losses while Die with a Smile has no such shield and falls behind, as long as the race doesn't go off-projection for the 11/30 week, that'll be a flip back to being the top song that didn't debut for this 12/7 chart.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I agree that's a possible scenario. It is also possible that AIWFCIY's and/or RATCT's streaming blows up considerably and end up #1/#2 in an order to be determined as it happened last year for the 12/9-dated Hot 100, which would be the comparable week to this year 12/7 chart. To refresh people's memories, for the former, RATCT was #1 that week and AIWFCIY #2.

[rimetm]

I sincerely doubt that will happen since the points are considerably off pace for that. This year is really highlighting how the general public’s holiday habits kick into gear with a turbo charge after Thanksgiving’s conclusion, not a predictable week by week progression after Halloween’s conclusion. The boost in the last 6 hours of Thursday is being estimated already in the early forecast, so as usual the tracking week starting with Black Friday will be the first one where the holiday songs are in contention for the crown.

[renfield75]

I wish Luther Vandross had received artist billing on "Luther" (like Otis Redding did on Jay & Kanye's "Otis"). Would have been cool to see him get another top ten hit. SWV getting featured credit for "The Heart Part 6" would have been nice too.

[shakemaki]

Thank goodness DWAS got that #1 before all this.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

This would end up being the biggest Hot 100 chart surprise for a calendar year in a while:

[hughster1]

I too heard "Defying Gravity" on the local Top 40 station tonight, while a friend of mine heard "Popular" on the Hot AC station. If the "Wicked" songs are getting even a little airplay, they could make more of a chart impact, even with the Kendrick album bomb, than we're anticipating. And they might have some legs streaming wise into the coming weeks.

Whatever happens, it's nice that, between Kendrick and "Wicked," the annual Christmas glut will be held off a bit for a week. Plus we might get a few more of these old hits clogging the charts knocked off than would be the case with just Christmas songs. Although we'll have to see how many Billboard lets re-chart on the post-holiday Hot 100...

[Enigma.]

I don't think the Wicked songs will have very high impact on Hot 100 - top 40 debut at best. Some longevity would be nice though.

[thegreatdivine]

I hope tv off debuts at #1 over squabble up. Clearly the better song and a song he'll perform at the Super Bowl.

[sportytheartist]

US Apple Music Top Songs (8:02am EST)
1 NEW Kendrick Lamar - squabble up
2 NEW Kendrick Lamar - tv off (feat. Lefty Gunplay)
3 +1 Kendrick Lamar & SZA - luther
4 -2 Kendrick Lamar - wacced out murals
5 = Kendrick Lamar - hey now (feat. Dody6)
6 = Kendrick Lamar - man at the garden
7 NEW Kendrick Lamar - reincarnated
8 NEW Kendrick Lamar - dodger blue (feat. Wallie the Sensei, Siete7x & Roddy Ricch)
9 = Kendrick Lamar - heart pt. 6
10 = Kendrick Lamar - peekaboo (feat. AzChike)
11 = Kendrick Lamar - gnx (feat. Hitta J3, YoungThreat & Peysoh)
12 = Kendrick Lamar & SZA - gloria

20 +12 Cynthia Erivo - Defying Gravity (feat. Ariana Grande)
40 +17 Ariana Grande - Popular
58 +41 Ariana Grande & Cynthia Erivo - What Is This Feeling?
87 +45 Wicked Movie Cast & Ariana Grande - No One Mourns the Wicked
105 +61 Jonathan Bailey - Dancing Through Life
123 +60 Cynthia Erivo - The Wizard And I (feat. Michelle Yeoh)

Albums (8:02am EST)
1 = Kendrick Lamar - GNX
2 = Wicked Movie Cast, Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande - Wicked: The Soundtrack
6 +1 Wizkid - Morayo
13 -1 J. Cole - The Warm Up
19 -4 Nicki Minaj - The Pinkprint (Tenth Anniversary Edition)

[rimetm]

Nov 25, 2024 4:15:46 GMT -5 hughster1 said:

Plus we might get a few more of these old hits clogging the charts knocked off than would be the case with just Christmas songs. Although we'll have to see how many Billboard lets re-chart on the post-holiday Hot 100...

In previous years, Billboard's been very specific that songs knocked into recurrency while Christmas songs are present are eligible to be returned in both the waning week (if applicable) and the disappearance week for Christmas songs. With Last Christmas having returned last week, that means the candidates already include (but all are unlikely so far):

Nights Like This
Pour Me a Drink
Si Antes te Hubiera Conocido

[tommy1860]

I’m very surprised at how well Defying Gravity is doing on Apple Music. Without the Kendrick album, it would be top 10. It has Ariana on it, so that helps, but I still wouldn’t have guess that a 7 minute long Broadway show tune would get that high.

[shakemaki]

Nov 25, 2024 5:38:43 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

I don't think the Wicked songs will have very high impact on Hot 100 - top 40 debut at best. Some longevity would be nice though.

Yeah, if We Don’t Talk About Bruno was too Broadway to go far on CHR, Wicked stuff absolutely is.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

[Mayman]

Nov 25, 2024 13:56:05 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

I think you accidentally linked the audio video.

[👑 Eloquent ™]

Nov 24, 2024 18:46:36 GMT -5 mms82 said:

Nov 24, 2024 14:55:14 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

 Anyone who's trying to make it all about Kendrick outselling Drake or outperforming him numbers-wise is coming from a very disingenuous place IMO.

We're on the Billboard Hot 100 Forum. Drake is objectively bigger and more successful, more the GOAT when it comes to the Billboard Hot 100. There are plenty of places to discuss what elitist critics think, this thread is a Hot 100 thread judged based upon what people connect with more via streaming, radio, and sales — and on that metric Drake is the GOAT, although it would be awesome to see more hip hop success, be it from Kendrick or ideally new artists.

I've been a forum member for 20 years. I know full well what this thread and its intentions are and it's absolutely not what I was referencing, thanks. If one thinks the whole "GOAT" conversation taking place between Drake and Kendrick had shit all to do with figures and chart peaks, they're naive at best (as Drake ALWAYS had the figures and numbers handedly, it wouldn't have even amounted to a conversation). That would be like people arguing Beyonce vs Taylor in stats/figures when they aren't even close (which isn't what anyone ever addresses in their fan "rivalry"). I was specifically addressing the disingenuousness of an argument being made and the narrative being twisted of what the core of their "GOAT" convo was really about and what it wasn't about. If it were strictly about figures, the conversation wouldn't ever have even began in the first place. People need to be real and just because people were spouting figures and numbers in smaller circles doesn't mean it was the crux of the "battle", as it never was. Do people think any rap feud was ever settled and determined by who sold the most copies? Lol

[magik]

Nov 25, 2024 14:21:48 GMT -5 👑 Eloquent ™ said:

Nov 24, 2024 18:46:36 GMT -5 mms82 said:

We're on the Billboard Hot 100 Forum. Drake is objectively bigger and more successful, more the GOAT when it comes to the Billboard Hot 100. There are plenty of places to discuss what elitist critics think, this thread is a Hot 100 thread judged based upon what people connect with more via streaming, radio, and sales — and on that metric Drake is the GOAT, although it would be awesome to see more hip hop success, be it from Kendrick or ideally new artists.

I've been a forum member for 20 years. I know full well what this thread and its intentions are and it's absolutely not what I was referencing, thanks. If one thinks the whole "GOAT" conversation taking place between Drake and Kendrick had shit all to do with figures and chart peaks, they're naive at best (as Drake ALWAYS had the figures and numbers handedly, it wouldn't have even amounted to a conversation). That would be like people arguing Beyonce vs Taylor in stats/figures when they aren't even close (which isn't what anyone ever addresses in their fan "rivalry"). I was specifically addressing the disingenuousness of an argument being made and the narrative being twisted of what the core of their "GOAT" convo was really about and what it wasn't about. If it were strictly about figures, the conversation wouldn't ever have even began in the first place. People need to be real and just because people were spouting figures and numbers in smaller circles doesn't mean it was the crux of the "battle", as it never was. Do people think any rap feud was ever settled and determined by who sold the most copies? Lol

You are correct. They are just being disingenuous, trying to miss your whole point on purpose.

[Groovy]

MUSTAAAARRRRRRDDDDDDDD!!!!!!

[sedrickwilhelm]

[sportytheartist]

[jenglisbe]

Drake has really lost the plot.

[sedrickwilhelm]

Once a lame, always a lame.

[avamaxstan]

Nov 25, 2024 1:49:55 GMT -5 shakemaki said:

Thank goodness DWAS got that #1 before all this.

Why did you have to jinx it like this 

[neel]

Nov 25, 2024 18:55:29 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Drake has really lost the plot.

All he had to do was shut up and disappear for nearly a year, then drop his comeback album. I honestly think his era of commercial domination is pretty much over now, considering most of that success came from collaborations and he hasn’t had a solo hit since Scorpion. Now everyone views him as lame and I doubt those collaborations will keep him on top.

He’s probably going to follow the same commercial trajectory that both Wayne and Nicki have been on since 2017.