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Post by sinceubeengone7 on Dec 4, 2004 22:10:03 GMT -5
does any1 think kelly clarkson be nominated for female pop performance? "breakaway" is practically the #1 pop song by a female artist in '04.
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Bcacb
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Post by Bcacb on Dec 5, 2004 0:12:40 GMT -5
does any1 think kelly clarkson be nominated for female pop performance? "breakaway" is practically the #1 pop song by a female artist in '04. I think that title belongs to Jojo's "Leave (Get Out)," if you're going by chart statistics. Thanks, Ben
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Dec 5, 2004 12:23:48 GMT -5
Would NARAS essentially spoil 3 of the 5 BNA nominees (Stone, West and Wilson) by having them announce? I'm probably over-thinking it, but there it is. Jersey Boy, I'd be psyched to see Keane make it in, but, like you, I doubt it. I think Modest Mouse stands a better chance, even though this is their, what, 4th album? The BNA field is really crowded. Jet could get in, Hoobastank could if NARAS considers 2003 the year in which they entered the public consciousness, and then there's Modest Mouse and Franz Ferdinand. And they're all essentially competing for the one spot that's left after Maroon 5, Gretchen Wilson, Kanye West and (presumably) Joss Stone take up the other 4. And that's assuming that NARAS doesn't go for a total surprise, as they did with the deserving but out-of-nowhere choice of Heather Headley last year. Hoobastank is not eligible for this award. They've been in public consciousness since 2002 and had two big alternative hits and a pop hit from that album. Is Maroon 5 even eligible? Wouldn't they have been nominated last year?
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Post by Pink Champagne Ricochet on Dec 5, 2004 12:26:58 GMT -5
I would think Maroon 5 came into "public consciousness" last fall, after the previous Grammy deadline, because that's when I remember "Harder to Breathe" really blowing up. And it's not until this year that they became that big. Songs about Jane is definitely not eligible for album awards, but who knows about BNA. They stretch the definition an awful lot.
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Dec 5, 2004 13:05:52 GMT -5
I seriously don't have the first clue how NARAS is going to see the "entered the public consciousness" thing. I didn't think Hoobastank would get in BNA (though I think they're a good bet for Record of the Year). And NARAS will have to fudge the "public consciousness" rule for Maroon 5, too, as "Harder to Breathe" really broke through in the summer of 2003 (I heard it all the time on both WPLJ and Z100 in NYC), which was before the 2004 Grammy year. Still, if NARAS considers "This Love" the real engine for their breakthrough, then, Maroon 5 would be considered eligible. If they are considered eligible, then they are locks to get in.
But it would make speculating about BNA more interesting if Maroon 5 were out. Then, you have Kanye West, Gretchen Wilson and, presumably, Joss Stone in. That leaves room for two of the following:
Jet Modest Mouse Franz Ferdinand Jojo Ashlee Simpson (who can't get in if NARAS wants the category to be taken seriously) Gavin DeGraw (because this has really been his breakthrough year) Howie Day (see: Gavin DeGraw, though with less mainstream success) Jamie Cullum Keane Mindy Smith Ryan Cabrera Ciara Maria Mena Christina Milian (is she eligible? I don't follow her, so I wouldn't know)
I'm sure I'm forgetting other contenders.
Jet, Franz Ferdinand and Modest Mouse are probably competing for one slot. It's a tough call between them -- Jet and Modest Mouse both got a lot of VH-1 support, and I think all 3 have done SNL (Modest Mouse and Franz Ferdinand in the past month). Jet probably has the highest profile of the three, thanks to iPod. Personally, I would tip Modest Mouse, but it's a tough call.
And then, there's the 5th slot, assuming that Maroon 5 is out because of ineligibility. I'm thinking that maybe it will go to a solo male artist. If so, then Gavin DeGraw and Jamie Cullum are probably the favorites, and will compete with Howie Day, Ryan Cabrera, and others I've probably forgotten. I've been thinking that Gavin DeGraw will get a big push from J, but, with 4 of the nominees already so high-profile, NARAS might use this spot to nod someone who hasn't gotten nearly as much mainstream attention. Jamie Cullum would fit the bill, then. Hard to say.
Could someone do a summary of the female R&B categories? Seems to me that they are pretty competitive this year, with Alicia Keys, Jill Scott, Anita Baker, Monica, Brandy, etc., leading the pack. Or will they be spread out over different R&B categories so that they aren't competing with each other as much? Will Joss Stone be competing in any R&B categories?
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Post by Pink Champagne Ricochet on Dec 5, 2004 14:29:24 GMT -5
Christina Milian released a moderately successful single in 2001 I think, but her first U.S. album just came out this year. You could say that "Dip It Low" was what brought her into the 'public conciousness', but I really can't see her being nominated. True or not, a lot of people see her as a second rate Beyonce wannabe, and NARAS has already nominated and awarded Beyonce multiple times.
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Post by britrocks16 on Dec 5, 2004 15:27:02 GMT -5
I think that title belongs to Jojo's "Leave (Get Out)," if you're going by chart statistics. Thanks, Ben Leave only made it to #12 on Billboard. Breakaway made it to #6 but only had 1 week at #1 on Pop Radio. Toxic got 4 weeks at #1 on Pop Radio and hit #9 on Billboard so I think its between Kelly and Britney.
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PerPlexied
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Post by PerPlexied on Dec 5, 2004 15:36:52 GMT -5
I'm assuming they would submit "Toxic" to Dance Recording and "Everytime" to Pop Vocal. Gives her more of a chance.
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Bcacb
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Post by Bcacb on Dec 5, 2004 15:44:26 GMT -5
Leave only made it to #12 on Billboard. Breakaway made it to #6 but only had 1 week at #1 on Pop Radio. Toxic got 4 weeks at #1 on Pop Radio and hit #9 on Billboard so I think its between Kelly and Britney. I was just going by pop radio, but now that you mention it, it's odd that "Leave (Get Out)" got to #12 on Billboard and was at #1 on pop for six weeks (I don't know the exact number), and "Breakaway" got to #6 on Billboard and was #1 for one week. Thanks, Ben
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Dec 5, 2004 15:47:50 GMT -5
I was just going by pop radio, but now that you mention it, it's odd that "Leave (Get Out)" got to #12 on Billboard and was at #1 on pop for six weeks (I don't know the exact number), and "Breakaway" got to #6 on Billboard and was #1 for one week. Thanks, Ben Depends on what time each song was released. Kelly competed against Over and Over (a song that routinely saw 9500+ spin totals). Depending on when you are released, you can go to #1 with under 8000 spins or go to #2 with over 8000 spins I think Kelly will grow to have the biggest pop song-well, if you count overall. Its holding up incredibly well and becoming a huge hit at two other formats.
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KikiMets
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Post by KikiMets on Dec 5, 2004 16:44:58 GMT -5
I was just going by pop radio, but now that you mention it, it's odd that "Leave (Get Out)" got to #12 on Billboard and was at #1 on pop for six weeks (I don't know the exact number), and "Breakaway" got to #6 on Billboard and was #1 for one week. Thanks, Ben What helped Breakaway was that it was also a big hit on Hot AC and a moderate hit on AC, while Leave didn't really have much crossover.
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Bcacb
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Post by Bcacb on Dec 5, 2004 21:53:59 GMT -5
So, what about Switchfoot? I don't see how they could be ignored.
Thanks, Ben
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Post by sinceubeengone7 on Dec 6, 2004 1:37:44 GMT -5
What helped Breakaway was that it was also a big hit on Hot AC and a moderate hit on AC, while Leave didn't really have much crossover. i always thought that "leave" was played in rhytmic stations. i think "breakaway" is the third biggest purely pop song of 'o4 (next to 'she will be loved' and 'pieces of me') in terms of billboard success and longevity. and while ashlee had a bigger hit, her song really ain't that good and that SNL thing should kill her chances of winning (althoughi suspect that she WILL be nominated).
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Post by velcro on Dec 6, 2004 23:06:04 GMT -5
Pieces of Me was a really good song imo... and although i'm a really big Kelly fan... I think Pieces might edge Breakaway. I hope Breakaway is nominated... it would be really great for Kelly, and it's a good song, as well, and deserves to be nominated. Leave (Get Out) on the other hand... was terrible... I just don't see how it was #1 for six weeks!
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Post by macaroninsexy on Dec 7, 2004 1:15:59 GMT -5
I think this could be Prince's year but lately the album of the year nominees have usually been the years best sellers so i wouldn't be surprised if Usher, Alicia Keys and Norah Jones get nominated.
I'm interested in who will be in the rock categories because I hope Modest Mouse and The Darkness get recognized. If Modest Mouse is nomiated for best new artist I'll be disappointed kind of like how Fountains of Wayne was up for it last year but both those bands have been around for awhile but didn't have mainstream success.
Rap will only have 4 possible winners: OutKast, Kanye West, Jay-Z and Eminem.
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Evergreen
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Post by Evergreen on Dec 7, 2004 8:00:57 GMT -5
Leave only made it to #12 on Billboard. Breakaway made it to #6 but only had 1 week at #1 on Pop Radio. Toxic got 4 weeks at #1 on Pop Radio and hit #9 on Billboard so I think its between Kelly and Britney. Both wrong! 1. Jessica Simpson - With You (170968) 2. Jojo - Leave (Get Out) (165783) 3. Britney Spears - Toxic (156673)
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Dec 7, 2004 8:16:24 GMT -5
Both wrong! 1. Jessica Simpson - With You (170968) 2. Jojo - Leave (Get Out) (165783) 3. Britney Spears - Toxic (156673) I think Kelly's will be the biggest hit when looked back upon.... (it was a late hit in the year-its kind of unfair to compare it to songs that have been getting airplay since the beginning of the year) If we are talking a rigid calendar year, depending on what you base your year on, Jessica would probably win.
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Post by sinceubeengone7 on Dec 7, 2004 10:05:14 GMT -5
I think Kelly's will be the biggest hit when looked back upon.... (it was a late hit in the year-its kind of unfair to compare it to songs that have been getting airplay since the beginning of the year) If we are talking a rigid calendar year, depending on what you base your year on, Jessica would probably win. i agree that 'breakaway' will probably end up higher if we will look back with the over-all performance of the songs within a year (not calendar yr). for crying out loud, it's still at #3 (likely to fall one spot down to #4) about 2 months after it hit #1 on pop. and it made all teh way up to #6 on BB (thanx to hot ac). it is also holding strong in hot AC @ #5.
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