Britney Spears "Me Against The Music" Predictions

[TheJakes]

RR said:

f**k the bullet The song is loosing audience, which is the most importnat factor for billboard.

In the mid-day MB update its audience impression started to grow again. It was up by around 100k. The effects of the unusually heavy first weekend rotation from Z100 have worked their way through the system.

[allow that]

JCMF3 said:

The most important change in Britney's numbers are her audience, which has decreased by about 3 million over the past week. This is mainly because WHTZ and KIIS have really lowered their spin totals for MATM. Last week, New York had it at about 68 spins mid-week, and right now the spin total is about 41.

As I said, the first day WHTZ had the song they premiered it every hour on the hour. Obviously, they can't play it every hour on the hour forever. So that's the ONLY reason why spins decreased there. They've actually been playing it more in regular rotation than last week.

[j]

Jersey said:

As I said, the first day WHTZ had the song they premiered it every hour on the hour. Obviously, they can't play it every hour on the hour forever. So that's the ONLY reason why spins decreased there. They've actually been playing it more in regular rotation than last week.

Thank you for the background scoop. Some people luurrrvve twisting facts around to suit whatever interpretation they want to believe, without even bothering to ask why.

[irice22]

Some people luurrrvve

Oh my God! Are you imitating like Celine Dion or something? Because me and my brother always joke about the way she pronounces "love."

[kingLUKE22]

HA HA HA! That's the first thing I thought too! I actually sing the word "lurve" whenever I hear her songs! Anyway... way off track...

[atomicaloud]

cant wait to see this at number 1.

[jimmy74747]

atomicaloud said:

cant wait to see this at number 1.

Well, I hope your patient, because it probably won't get there.

[Libra]

Jersey said:

As I said, the first day WHTZ had the song they premiered it every hour on the hour. Obviously, they can't play it every hour on the hour forever. So that's the ONLY reason why spins decreased there. They've actually been playing it more in regular rotation than last week.

That reminds me of when my station (WIOG) did that to Hot in Herre...only I think that lasted close to a whole week.

[msanoja]

jimmy74747 said:

Well, I hope your patient, because it probably won't get there.

It definitely has a good chance

[blahhhh]

MikeK102 said:

That reminds me of when my station (WIOG) did that to Hot in Herre...only I think that lasted close to a whole week.

I remember that.. WIOG kept playing HIH and my roommate and i were like what the hizzle? It definately grew on me that night when they played it back-back-back...... WIOG is a pretty good station though, regardless of that stunt.

[atomicaloud]

it WILL get to number 1 very soon.

[j]

irice22 said:

Oh my God! Are you imitating like Celine Dion or something? Because me and my brother always joke about the way she pronounces "love."

Both are you are weird. The only distinctive Celine pronounciation that's very distinctively Celine is "I believe thatch my heart will... go on..." In which songs does she drag out the luuurrvve?

[radiorules]

I have to disagree with many of you, the hype for this song and Britney's album has definantly died down in my opinion. I haven't heard MATM on the radio for days and i heard it everytime i got into the car last week. And her album is a month away and i don't see the hype, gloss, pretense that Britney usually aims for before releasing an album. I am sticking with my prediction at #15, i predict the bullet will fall to about +1000 by sunday, and then +500 by the following week.

[Leafstorm]

radiorules said:

I have to disagree with many of you, the hype for this song and Britney's album has definantly died down in my opinion. I haven't heard MATM on the radio for days and i heard it everytime i got into the car last week. And her album is a month away and i don't see the hype, gloss, pretense that Britney usually aims for before releasing an album. I am sticking with my prediction at #15, i predict the bullet will fall to about +1000 by sunday, and then +500 by the following week.

The real hype hasn't even started yet. The hype's gonna start this weekend when she will be performing on SNL. This will be her first of the many major TV appearances that will continue all the way up to her album release. We'll see what happens to her chart performance this weekend.

[irice22]

In which songs does she drag out the luuurrvve?

"That's the Way It Is"!!!!!

HA HA HA! That's the first thing I thought too! I actually sing the word "lurve" whenever I hear her songs! Anyway... way off track...

Me too! Me and my brother when we're listening to "TTWIS" We're always like "Here it comes, here it comes! Lurrrve!"

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

I have to disagree with many of you, the hype for this song and Britney's album has definantly died down in my opinion. I haven't heard MATM on the radio for days and i heard it everytime i got into the car last week.

Yes that's right... because of the selected random times you are in the car and the station you are listening to (which is 1 out of 126 monitored)... yep that definitely means the hype is gone...

[radiorules]

You always seem to think that the only reason i think Britney's song might flop is simply because i am a Christina fan. Well maybe you shouldn't judge because i like Britney and have liked her since her BOMT days, and just because i think MATM won't do that well it doesn't mean you have to go and throw "Dirrty" as an example into my face, because we already know Dirrty didn't do well on radio, it happened and it's done now. Christina has since released 3 successfull singles, whether you like it or not (i laughed so hard that day when you were happy that CHUD was stalling at #11 and then it jumped two spots durring the following update) so why don't you just stop it.

[laguy03]

I think a lot of people underestimated this song.

[JCMF3]

radiorules said:

You always seem to think that the only reason i think Britney's song might flop is simply because i am a Christina fan. Well maybe you shouldn't judge because i like Britney and have liked her since her BOMT days, and just because i think MATM won't do that well it doesn't mean you have to go and throw "Dirrty" as an example into my face, because we already know Dirrty didn't do well on radio, it happened and it's done now. Christina has since released 3 successfull singles, whether you like it or not (i laughed so hard that day when you were happy that CHUD was stalling at #11 and then it jumped two spots durring the following update) so why don't you just stop it.

My previous comment on "Dirrty" was intentionally done to bring out the truth about that time. If that suddenly ignited you or offended you, then I suppose I can apologize.

However, my second comment has nothing to do with you being a Christina fan, a soulDecision fan, etc. I was simply pointing out how silly it is to make a HUGE generalization based on your random listening to one pop station in the country.

By the way, I checked the pop stations in Detroit, and here are the spin trends from last week to this week:

93.1 WDRQ - Britney jumps 21-13 and gains 12 spins to 39 spins for the week.

95.5 WKQI - Britney moved from 37 to 29 and gained 7 spins to 18 spins.

So, you not hearing the song is just based on your listening times...

[Bcacb]

JCMF3 said:

My previous comment on "Dirrty" was intentionally done to bring out the truth about that time. If that suddenly ignited you or offended you, then I suppose I can apologize.

However, my second comment has nothing to do with you being a Christina fan, a soulDecision fan, etc. I was simply pointing out how silly it is to make a HUGE generalization based on your random listening to one pop station in the country.

By the way, I checked the pop stations in Detroit, and here are the spin trends from last week to this week:

93.1 WDRQ - Britney jumps 21-13 and gains 12 spins to 39 spins for the week.

95.5 WKQI - Britney moved from 37 to 29 and gained 7 spins to 18 spins.

So, you not hearing the song is just based on your listening times...

Oooohhhh, burn ;).

Thanks,
Ben

[radiorules]

how about the fact that on Thursday WDRQ had it being played 45 times, and WKQI still had it at 18, so technically, i have heard it less, the song also fell off the 4 play at 4 on DRQ after being on it for a week. So maybe it's just losing steam in the big city's since they jumped on the song first, while all the other cities have just recieved it and are still in the "Let's see if our audience will like this song" stage.

[matm2004]

radiorules said:

how about the fact that on Thursday WDRQ had it being played 45 times, and WKQI still had it at 18, so technically, i have heard it less, the song also fell off the 4 play at 4 on DRQ after being on it for a week. So maybe it's just losing steam in the big city's since they jumped on the song first, while all the other cities have just recieved it and are still in the "Let's see if our audience will like this song" stage.

Is there really a need to be that technical about one station though? Not to act like a jerk, but the fact of the matter is that the song is still gaining tremendous amounts, and will more than likely eclipse half of britney's singles on the radio, and at the rate it is going now , along with all the promotional things she'll be doing in the future, she could easily get her first top 10 since "Lucky". And #15 currently has 3400 spins.... it would have to drop dramatically....hmmm, I don't know, a rapid "slow down" like that seems very unrealistic...

[Castlevania]

This song will slide into the top 20 for sure

[allow that]

Guys, I suggest you drop the Christina comparisons immediately. Thanks.

[laguy03]

yeah, please do. One of the things that I like about this board is that there havent been people comparing Christina, Britney, Avril, etc. like they did in R&R. lets try to keep it that way.

[atomicaloud]

Especially people saying this is going to end up like dirrty.

[j]

Yeah, and I also suggest that people stop using their personal listening habits to make claims about national spin trends At least, check Mediabase to see whether your Pop station is really decreasing spins for the song before suggesting that it was because you'll just end up looking dumb. (Thank you JCMF3 for pointing that out.)

At any rate, it's obvious that one station alone doesn't reflect national spin trends - which is the reason why we have the Pop panel charts, duh.

Back to the topic at hand, can someone offer reasons why "Me Against The Music" is more warmly-received on the Pop chart than "I'm A Slave 4 U"? I don't get it. Both are similar, and in fact, I think "Slave" is more catchy. What other factors do we need to take into consideration here to explain this apparent "illogical" airplay for MATM?

[Leafstorm]

Didn't the Britney Clear Channel blacklisting start during the "I'm A Slave 4 U" days? With Britney choosing Concerts West over Clear Channe; as her tour promoter, didn't Clear Channel decide to slowly reduce her airplay to minimal? There were articles on the internet talking about the blacklisting I believe... In addition, "I'm A Slave 4 U" might not have done as well because of 9/11. Britney premiered that song in the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards on September 6, 2001; and the single was leaked one day earlier... "I'm A Slave 4 U"'s airplay probably got disrupted by 9/11... After all, it wouldn't seem appropriate playing songs like "I'm A Slave 4 U" during those days of mourning... Maybe that's why the song did worse than expected?

[laguy03]

Leafstorm said:

Didn't the Britney Clear Channel blacklisting start during the "I'm A Slave 4 U" days? With Britney choosing Concerts West over Clear Channe; as her tour promoter, didn't Clear Channel decide to slowly reduce her airplay to minimal? There were articles on the internet talking about the blacklisting I believe... In addition, "I'm A Slave 4 U" might not have done as well because of 9/11. Britney premiered that song in the 2001 MTV Video Music Awards on September 6, 2001; and the single was leaked one day earlier... "I'm A Slave 4 U"'s airplay probably got disrupted by 9/11... After all, it wouldn't seem appropriate playing songs like "I'm A Slave 4 U" during those days of mourning... Maybe that's why the song did worse than expected?

that is interesting. i didnt even know that could happen

[JCMF3]

Leafstorm said:

Didn't the Britney Clear Channel blacklisting start during the "I'm A Slave 4 U" days? With Britney choosing Concerts West over Clear Channe; as her tour promoter, didn't Clear Channel decide to slowly reduce her airplay to minimal? There were articles on the internet talking about the blacklisting I believe...

I think that this is definitely a factor in why Britney did not receive the airplay she probably would have gotten. I also think that there was a general consensus during that time of "blacklisting" the teen pop artists in general. Around that time, the Backstreet Boys released "Drowning", which many people thought would easily get to #1, yet it only made it to #14 or so and then plummeted.

I think both of these factors really hurt Britney. But now, I think pop is getting out of the "add every RHY/Urban artist" phase and back into "let's get some more of our core audience back" phase.