HITS 11/26: #1 Eminem 123k; #7 Gaga 50k

[Wavey✨️]

Lol at the title. It might as well be just Em included in the title. Or, Em and Five Finger Death Punch, respectively.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Nov 22, 2013 8:25:04 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

But Artpop isn't coming off of a big backlash.

Where have you been for the last two and a half years?

[Rocky]

Nov 22, 2013 11:18:17 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

Nov 22, 2013 8:25:04 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

But Artpop isn't coming off of a big backlash.

Where have you been for the last two and a half years?

Wanted to ask this literally. But now I've decided to be the kind kid.

[HolidayGuy]

Backlash in the sense of commercial performance/sales; Born This Way may not have been as successful as The Fame, but it had a huge opening week, spawned a six-week No. 1 title track and had additional, solid other top 10 hits. To me, that era was not a backlash, as I relate it to the commercial performance and what happened as that album was in its initial chart life. But, maybe that's just me. ;)

[3m3r7c]

So after 1D and Britney the next 2 weeks there are no more big releases this year? Dec 10, 17, 24, 31 all have no big albums?

[HolidayGuy]

I don't recall there being any big releases Christmas or New Year's week in the past?

HITS has R. Kelly listed for Dec. 10, but is that even happening? His last album didn't perform all that well. Hits has B.O.B. on the 17th, but, again, not sure if it's happening. Also an Austin & Ally release.

[DJ General]

Nov 22, 2013 11:34:26 GMT -5 3m3r7c said:

So after 1D and Britney the next 2 weeks there are no more big releases this year? Dec 10, 17, 24, 31 all have no big albums?

Albums do not release on 24 or 31. No one notable. Too close to the holidays.

The rest of the #1s for the year will be

One Direction, Eminem, Kelly Clarkson, Duck Dynasty, Britney Spears - those are the only people I think they will be #1 or even have a chance at #1 at any point in the rest of 2013. No one else will do anything notable.

R. Kelly is indeed releasing on December 10th though. His facebook/twitter have been massively promoting it. I'm not sure what kind of numbers he will do though. He could surprise and be a wild card.

[DJ General]

Britney Jean Expected to sell between 150k-200k in it's First Week

Saw this just posted.

[jgizzle89]

Nov 22, 2013 11:45:01 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Britney Jean Expected to sell between 150k-200k in it's First Week

Saw this just posted.

Sounds about right.

[jgizzle89]

Both R. Kelly and B.o.B. are releasing on their respective dates. B.o.B has a pre-order available on iTunes and has been promoting it at radio with "Headband" and "Ready" at Rhythmic and Urban, respectively. I doubt he'll do more than 50k, which is a shame.

I can see R. Kelly hitting 100k, but my prediction is closer to 80k. I know I'll be picking it up.

[seaguy27]

Nov 22, 2013 11:31:17 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Backlash in the sense of commercial performance/sales; Born This Way may not have been as successful as The Fame, but it had a huge opening week, spawned a six-week No. 1 title track and had additional, solid other top 10 hits. To me, that era was not a backlash, as I relate it to the commercial performance and what happened as that album was in its initial chart life. But, maybe that's just me. ;)

Born This Way album I feel had huge momentum and the vast majority of it's success seemed to vanish after the first single fell. It just felt like the era derailed. I know that
overall it has good sales and moderately well performing singles but I think there was a feeling of disappointment. Maybe it is just me but it seemed like her profile had
taken a very big hit by the time the era was over.

I mean even Erotica with all the backlash still sold 1.8 million and spawned 3 top 15 hits. Born This Way and especially the first single seemed like it was just riding the coat-tails
left by The Fame/Monster era and then people said oh well this is not that great.

I get your point, I guess im just saying that she may start out with soft sales but its too early to say what is being said and that it can still have a respectable showing and I hardly
think an album that has debut at #1 with a first single that has been in the top 10 for 14 weeks warrants a end of career sign.

[Deleted]

I don't see Christmas albums going to #1 this year. It is a bit of a rarity for any Christmas album to go to #1 to begin with.

The last two, Josh Groban and Michael Buble went to #1 on the Dec 8th chart and stayed there through Christmas. The comparable chart to that is this one.


There is nothing of that magnitude being released this year

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2013 21:26:40 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

If Artpop finishes at the high end of the projection, that would be roughly a 79% drop, which isn't far off of the norm these days.

Buble's album has a good shot at returning to the top 10 again. His holiday special is airing later in the season (Dec. 18), when holiday albums usually have peaked, so we'll see if it gets there before then.

???

The average second-week drop for a No. 1-debuting album in 2013 is 69%. The biggest falls of all time are:

4/21/2012 – Madonna – MDNA – 86.70% – From 359,000 to 48,000 at No. 8
6/18/2011 – Lady Gaga – Born This Way – 84.28% – From 1.11 million to 174,000 at No. 1
12/3/2011 – Mac Miller – Blue Slide Park – 82.54% – From 144,000 to 25,000 at No. 24
7/13/2013 – Kanye West – Yeezus – 80.27% – From 327,000 to 65,000 at No. 3
11/26/2013 - Lady Gaga - ARTPOP - will be around 79.5%
12/16/2006 – Jay-Z – Kingdom Come – 79.42% – From 680,000 to 140,000 at No. 6

The fact that Born This Way sold more in its second week (despite having an all time high drop) than ARTPOP did in its entire first week (not counting pre-orders)

[HolidayGuy]

Codex- we are seeing lots of second-week drops in the 70s in terms of percentage loss, though, so that range kinda is becoming the norm, isn't it?

seaguy- I agree. I can't imagine anyone thinking the disappointing showing of Artpop is a career-ender. One doesn't have to be the hottest thing out in music and beyond smash each time to have a career.

[Deleted]

Yes, around 66-72% is the norm nowadays, but the difference between 72% and 79% is pretty big for a drop, even if it's only 7%. The second week total for something that falls 72% will be 33% more than an album that falls 79%, which is pretty significant.

[Caviar]

Nov 22, 2013 12:08:35 GMT -5 Codex said:

Nov 21, 2013 21:26:40 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

If Artpop finishes at the high end of the projection, that would be roughly a 79% drop, which isn't far off of the norm these days.

Buble's album has a good shot at returning to the top 10 again. His holiday special is airing later in the season (Dec. 18), when holiday albums usually have peaked, so we'll see if it gets there before then.

???

The average second-week drop for a No. 1-debuting album in 2013 is 69%. The biggest falls of all time are:

4/21/2012 – Madonna – MDNA – 86.70% – From 359,000 to 48,000 at No. 8
6/18/2011 – Lady Gaga – Born This Way – 84.28% – From 1.11 million to 174,000 at No. 1
12/3/2011 – Mac Miller – Blue Slide Park – 82.54% – From 144,000 to 25,000 at No. 24
7/13/2013 – Kanye West – Yeezus – 80.27% – From 327,000 to 65,000 at No. 3
11/26/2013 - Lady Gaga - ARTPOP - will be around 79.5%
12/16/2006 – Jay-Z – Kingdom Come – 79.42% – From 680,000 to 140,000 at No. 6

The fact that Born This Way sold more in its second week (despite having an all time high drop) than ARTPOP did in its entire first week (not counting pre-orders)

Why would you discredit pre-orders? A sale is a sale.

[Duca]

Awful second week for Gaga. Barely 50k in the middle of November after an SNL gig is tragic. Lotus did more in its second week. LOTUS.

Her third week should be decent since she's gonna have a bunch of promo: AMAs, Ellen, the Muppets Thanksgiving Special + Black Friday. Anything under 70k would be abysmal.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2013 12:57:23 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Nov 22, 2013 12:08:35 GMT -5 Codex said:

???

The average second-week drop for a No. 1-debuting album in 2013 is 69%. The biggest falls of all time are:

4/21/2012 – Madonna – MDNA – 86.70% – From 359,000 to 48,000 at No. 8
6/18/2011 – Lady Gaga – Born This Way – 84.28% – From 1.11 million to 174,000 at No. 1
12/3/2011 – Mac Miller – Blue Slide Park – 82.54% – From 144,000 to 25,000 at No. 24
7/13/2013 – Kanye West – Yeezus – 80.27% – From 327,000 to 65,000 at No. 3
11/26/2013 - Lady Gaga - ARTPOP - will be around 79.5%
12/16/2006 – Jay-Z – Kingdom Come – 79.42% – From 680,000 to 140,000 at No. 6

The fact that Born This Way sold more in its second week (despite having an all time high drop) than ARTPOP did in its entire first week (not counting pre-orders)

Why would you discredit pre-orders? A sale is a sale.

Because pre-orders were accumulated over the course of 3 months. During the week of the album release, only 150k people actually went out and bought the album or downloaded it from iTunes, less than the second week of Born This Way. That's why the drop this week is so big.

[¤ Matthea ¤]

Nov 22, 2013 13:05:41 GMT -5 Codex said:

Nov 22, 2013 12:57:23 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Why would you discredit pre-orders? A sale is a sale.

Because pre-orders were accumulated over the course of 3 months. During the week of the album release, only 150k people actually went out and bought the album or downloaded it from iTunes, less than the second week of Born This Way. That's why the drop this week is so big.

But a sale is still a sale. It doesn't matter if a fan pre-orders the album three months before the release date or if that fan buys the album during the release week. A sale is a sale.

[Caviar]

Nov 22, 2013 13:05:41 GMT -5 Codex said:

Nov 22, 2013 12:57:23 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Why would you discredit pre-orders? A sale is a sale.

Because pre-orders were accumulated over the course of 3 months. During the week of the album release, only 150k people actually went out and bought the album or downloaded it from iTunes, less than the second week of Born This Way. That's why the drop this week is so big.

It doesn't matter how the consumer bought it because the record label still made a profit regardless. I think some of us actually forget the point of releasing an album is to make $$$.

[popstop]

I'm not entirely sure I understand that rationale either. On what week would you count the pre-sales?

[Juanca]

I don't want to derail the thread, but I need to clarify a poster's comment:
Cyndi Lauper was HUGE in 1983-4. Like Gaga huge. No female act at that point had had her first 4 singles reach the top 5 on the billboard chart. GJWHF, TAT, SB and ATTN was one of the strongest showing for a female act at that time. Madonna was just a wannabe when Cyndi was at the top of her game. Things started to change when the She's So Unusual era was coming to an end and the Like A Virgin era was about to start. But up until then Cyndi was a big force. Her videos were top notch and her rebel image was quite impactful for that year at least. The video for money changes everything was an epic live video that showed her real strength as a performer. Unfortunately her image got stuck in the 80s and didn't evolve as much as needed.
Many of us thought of gaga more like a Cyndi than a Maddy because of her irreverence and fashion statements and the fact that both seemed more artistic and less plastic. Madonna evolved and showed maturity with Crazy for You and then it was all confirmed with True Blue, but up until then it was not that self evident that either she was gonna be the next big thing or she had that quality that would put her ahead of Cyndi and not just be another Kim Wilde for example.
I was a kid back then but I followed music charts since I learned how to dance ;)

[Deleted]

I never said it isn't? It counts normally for her overall total, but pre-orders heavily inflate first weeks. It's similar to when CMA skews the digital sales of songs, those 100k+ preorders would have been spread out throughout its next couple months, not just during the first week, so it's wise to evaluate the data separately as well.

[HolidayGuy]

Yah, no need for a distinction. Most albums (sans Kanye West's latest) are available for pre-order.

[Push The Button]

Nov 22, 2013 13:00:15 GMT -5 Duca said:

Awful second week for Gaga. Barely 50k in the middle of November after an SNL gig is tragic. Lotus did more in its second week. LOTUS.

Her third week should be decent since she's gonna have a bunch of promo: AMAs, Ellen, the Muppets Thanksgiving Special + Black Friday. Anything under 70k would be abysmal.

Lotus was deeply discounted for Black Friday in its second week.

I wouldn't expect a 70k third week for ARTPOP - it's doubtful that the promo line up would result in that much of an upswing. At best, she'll suffer a softer drop than usual.

[Deleted]

I never said it shouldn't be counted in its first week. I mean that when comparing Born This Way and ARTPOP , it's important to note the very long pre-order period, the same way it's important to note the 0.99$ sales.

[rosemoor]

Nov 22, 2013 13:42:46 GMT -5 Codex said:

I never said it isn't? It counts normally for her overall total, but pre-orders heavily inflate first weeks. It's similar to when CMA skews the digital sales of songs, those 100k+ preorders would have been spread out throughout its next couple months, not just during the first week, so it's wise to evaluate the data separately.

I don't think preorder inflates first week sale at all. who pre-order? mostly die-hard fans, who would have bought it first week regardless.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Nov 22, 2013 11:31:17 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Backlash in the sense of commercial performance/sales; Born This Way may not have been as successful as The Fame, but it had a huge opening week, spawned a six-week No. 1 title track and had additional, solid other top 10 hits. To me, that era was not a backlash, as I relate it to the commercial performance and what happened as that album was in its initial chart life. But, maybe that's just me. ;)

Other than the immense negativity that surrounded her nearly every step of the way from the release of the BTW single onward.

Backlash comes in more forms than lack of radio success. She happened to have a lot of fans who stuck by for parts of the era but it dwindled rather quickly. I'd say it did well despite the backlash rather than it simply underperformed.

[grandelf]

Nov 22, 2013 10:33:31 GMT -5 mluv said:

I think Cyndi Lauper is doing fine so I'm not sure why she's being used here as the epitome of failure.

She is not the epitome of failure but due to certain infamous quotes by critics, she will always be the epitome of flash-in-the-pan and settling into "doing her own thing", catering to her fanbase and not getting mainstream attention. Of course there are better examples than her, like Alanis Morissette but due to the "versus Madonna" thing, she will always be brought up when discussing the career possibilities of current female stars. While I agree that it's pointless to compare to 20-30 years ago, it is notable that Gaga swiftly came down from her peak, especially *outside* the US where her last hit was The Edge of Glory and Applause has been a non-event.

[Deleted]

Flash in the pan isn't right either.

She's So Unusual had like 5 hits in an era where that wasn't yet common

Her music was mainstream for several years to follow