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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2015 7:57:21 GMT -5
Ashley Monroe could if she can outsell Kelsea for the album but I have doubts. Mickey just no. Martina besides Saladgate hasn't done anything. Reba yeah she will probably. While Kelsea doesn't have the critical support its more of a mixed reception her sales aren't awful and heck. What has Miranda done she won a couple of awards but Little Red Wagon was a disaster and didn't even make the Top 15. I think Kelsea has done more than Miranda this year and until we see how Kacey album does I think Kelsea has done more than her. I think Carrie and maybe Reba have done more than Kelsea.
Oh of how I love the Sam Hunt love to stop. Talented guy but his music has no business in country music.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jun 17, 2015 8:54:52 GMT -5
I think we're down to just three shoo-ins (Underwood, Musgravescand Lambett) for female. Please tell me I'm an idiot if I am forgetting someone obvious ha. I totally see what your saying, but to me, if everything holds she would be the only female to chart at the top with a single that's probably headed to gold status. I think regardless of second single success that is worthy of a spot over some of the critical favs. I was thinking of Reba as a lock for a Female Vocalist nomination -- it seems to me that her comeback is an unqualified success, with pretty strong album sales, a lead single that nearly everyone agrees is a hit regardless of how it's charting, and strong television and media visibility. That would leave one slot. I also think that even after we put the inevitable politics aside, voters hold different artists to different standards (not saying this is fair, just that it seems to happen). Martina was a perennial nominee, a four-time CMA Female Vocalist winner, and generally seen as one of the genre's finest voices, and if she has enough visibility during the voting period for nominations, that could be enough to get her in. It wouldn't be the first year she got a nomination without being particularly active. Ashley Monroe could get in thanks to her high-profile affiliations and critical heat. Heck, if "Better Than You Left Me" somehow manages to hang around and become a hit, I think that song is well-loved enough and Mickey Guyton respected enough as a vocal talent that she has a decent chance at slipping into the fifth slot (especially with the benefit of her label voting for her). I definitely see Kelsea's team putting up a fight since it has been near relentless on the media front, and I expect it to make an incredible amount of hay about her "historic" #1. I just think that she's going to need to show juggernaut-like signs during the August round of CMA voting (which determines the nominees) in order to get taken seriously, because she isn't otherwise the type of artist who would naturally garner industry support. Analogously, I think Sam Hunt's success has made him the kind of artist whom the industry can't ignore at awards shows. But so far, sales-wise, Kelsea Ballerini is no Sam Hunt. I definitely see what your saying. If Black River can push for a nomination the way they are pushing this song to number one, they will be fine. The gains for LMLYMI the past couple days are INSANE.
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someguy
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Post by someguy on Jun 17, 2015 10:31:51 GMT -5
I think Kelsea has a decent chance at that fifth slot, but she'll have some competition from Brandy Clark, Ashley Monroe and Martina McBride (despite Martna not having done much of anything this year). If I had to guess, I think I would put her in as my fifth predicted nominee right now, but it's far from a sure bet. If her second single isn't performing well by August, then I would say that her chances would be seriously diminished (meaning that she would probably get nominated if the voting was today, but a lot can happen in two months).
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cws3030
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Post by cws3030 on Jun 17, 2015 11:40:02 GMT -5
Is there any chance they can hold her at #1 for 2 weeks? Blake is coming in strong but his single hasn't been out too long.
I do think she can get the 5th slot nomination in the female category.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 17, 2015 12:17:05 GMT -5
It's unlikely. I see this song getting the #1 then falling fast. It's been on the charts since September so its already old.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 17, 2015 12:23:12 GMT -5
Is there any chance they can hold her at #1 for 2 weeks? Blake is coming in strong but his single hasn't been out too long. I do think she can get the 5th slot nomination in the female category. I don't see it. This song is really racking up some major league spin and audience numbers (over 7900 spins and 4.0 million in audience gained this week) and its only Wednesday. Black River is just pulling out all the stops over the next few days and then will likely let this go. I'm always an advocate for multiple weeks for any song these days but with Blake and Carrie already having #1 plans after this Monday, I expect Black River to play nice and let this fall.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Jun 17, 2015 12:35:09 GMT -5
Honestly, I'd suspect the Female Vocalist nominees to be Miranda, Carrie, Kacey, Kelsea and Reba or Brandy Clark. And that's really it. I don't see Ashley getting a vocalist shot yet. Not this cycle at least.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 17, 2015 13:16:24 GMT -5
It is weird in a way if Little Toy Guns misses the top and Smokin and Drinkin doesn't get up fast enough if you think about it Kelsea would be the woman with the most radio success. Like honestly if you think about it despite her album not having strong sales with this song she should be a shoe-in. Martina hasn't released any music yet. Brandy Clark is in the same boat. Ashley Monroe second song fizzled out way too much. Kelsea to me is a definite favorite to get nominated. Also YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Kelsea is #1 please stay up there you can make history. Also can one of the chart gurus explain why this song keeps having monstrous gains I mean I love the fact that it is or is Black River going for like highest Billboard or MB audience. #KelseaToTheTop. I'm sure I'll be corrected for this, but the highest MediaBase audience totals I've seen was 63 million and the highest Billboard totals was 50 million (for It Goes Like This by Thomas Rhett). sabre14 will tell us what song got the highest MediaBase totals.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 17, 2015 13:29:57 GMT -5
It is weird in a way if Little Toy Guns misses the top and Smokin and Drinkin doesn't get up fast enough if you think about it Kelsea would be the woman with the most radio success. Like honestly if you think about it despite her album not having strong sales with this song she should be a shoe-in. Martina hasn't released any music yet. Brandy Clark is in the same boat. Ashley Monroe second song fizzled out way too much. Kelsea to me is a definite favorite to get nominated. Also YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Kelsea is #1 please stay up there you can make history. Also can one of the chart gurus explain why this song keeps having monstrous gains I mean I love the fact that it is or is Black River going for like highest Billboard or MB audience. #KelseaToTheTop. I'm sure I'll be corrected for this, but the highest MediaBase audience totals I've seen was 63 million and the highest Billboard totals was 50 million (for It Goes Like This by Thomas Rhett). sabre14 will tell us what song got the highest MediaBase totals. "Homegrown" reached 64.3 million in audience on MB this past April.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 17, 2015 13:32:48 GMT -5
I'm sure I'll be corrected for this, but the highest MediaBase audience totals I've seen was 63 million and the highest Billboard totals was 50 million (for It Goes Like This by Thomas Rhett). sabre14 will tell us what song got the highest MediaBase totals. "Homegrown" reached 64.3 million in audience on MB this past April. Thanks. I knew you would know. Wasn't that far off in the MediaBase department!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 17, 2015 13:34:51 GMT -5
"Homegrown" reached 64.3 million in audience on MB this past April. Thanks. I knew you would know. Wasn't that far off in the MediaBase department! Eh I don't know, 1.3 million off is a decent amount if you ask me, lol. We'll round down, so you were just 1.0 million off. :)
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 17, 2015 13:43:38 GMT -5
Thanks. I knew you would know. Wasn't that far off in the MediaBase department! Eh I don't know, 1.3 million off is a decent amount if you ask me, lol. We'll round down, so you were just 1.0 million off. :) Roughly the size of San Diego (2010 census figures). Do they count? Anyway, love seeing the fact that Kelsea Ballerini and Black River will have their first #1 shortly.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Jun 17, 2015 19:16:50 GMT -5
I think the nominees are going to be Carrie, Miranda, Kacey, Reba, and Kelsea. But I also think Kelsea can easily be knocked out by somebody, it'll be just like her labelmate Kellie Pickler never getting nominated despite being the 3rd biggest female for about 2 years. She was just too new and bigger names knocked her out.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2015 22:45:34 GMT -5
I'm not sure why they are pushing so dang hard with this one. Its gains are off the chart. All that's going to do is cause it to fall unnaturally hard next week. I mean, it'd be different if they thought Blake was a threat, but it's pretty clear that he's not trying for #1 this week. And it's not like they can set any records either. Audience totals right now aren't as high as they were in 2013 and 2014 (as well as earlier this year, at least on MB). As sabre14 noted, Zac Brown Band's "Homegrown" has the highest peak audience on Mediabase (64.445 million), and over on Billboard, the record is 50.6 million by Cole Swindell's "Hope You Get Lonely Tonight" last fall. Kelsea might be able to top 45 or 46 mil on Billboard, but she won't be anywhere near record numbers on either chart, so I'm not sure they're pushing here...they don't really need to push at all -- this would have ascended to #1 naturally this week anyway. Instead it's up 200 spins and 1.55 mil on Mediabase today, which pretty much has me rolling my eyes. Talk about completely unnecessary.
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Post by tim on Jun 17, 2015 23:35:30 GMT -5
^ jhomes87, I've been checking out the Bobby Bones show more than usual lately and since last Friday it seems its been nothing but Kelsea, Kelsea, Kelsea. In fact last Friday I think he was playing it every chance he could get, and then come back around to this week he was joking about how the bosses that be were questioning why he was playing a particular artist and song so much...then proceeded with saying something like "I'm going to keep spinning this song even if it makes my bosses mad." Anyways, not sure what impact that has had chart wise but I thought I'd share my casual listening experience with my least favorite program on country radio.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 18, 2015 5:11:52 GMT -5
In its 11th week, LMLYMI goes up 53-45 on the Hot 100 this week.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jun 18, 2015 10:39:09 GMT -5
Rolling chart has Kelsea Ballerini at #1 with 8100 spins and 57 million audience impressions.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jun 18, 2015 11:18:01 GMT -5
In its 11th week, LMLYMI goes up 53-45 on the Hot 100 this week. Looks like it'll come up short of hitting the Top 40, but a #45 peak is pretty damn good, so I'll take it. And of course, the #1 on Country Airplay is the true victory.
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bigfan101
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Post by bigfan101 on Jun 18, 2015 11:37:33 GMT -5
In its 11th week, LMLYMI goes up 53-45 on the Hot 100 this week. Looks like it'll come up short of hitting the Top 40, but a #45 peak is pretty damn good, so I'll take it. And of course, the #1 on Country Airplay is the true victory. I don't know; with all this airplay gains and some growth on sales, she might be able to get there next week.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 18, 2015 12:11:10 GMT -5
I'm starting to wonder, is Black River gunning for a 2nd week? It's unusual to see a current #1 increase like this. Usually by Thursday it should be leveling out.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 18, 2015 12:16:56 GMT -5
I'm starting to wonder, is Black River gunning for a 2nd week? It's unusual to see a current #1 increase like this. Usually by Thursday it should be leveling out. The opposite will happen. I now expect "Love Me Like You Mean It" to fall hard come next week. When you push a song this hard (over 5.0 million in audience gained since Sunday), the bottom falls out come Monday. Kelsea's numbers have grown too large, too quickly to maintain it through next weekend. One week is all this will get at #1.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Jun 18, 2015 12:19:52 GMT -5
So basically this is going to bleed AI like a river once the #1 is confirmed?
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 18, 2015 12:23:00 GMT -5
So basically this is going to bleed AI like a river once the #1 is confirmed? Yes. Like jhomes87 said, this massive push is unnecessary. I mean, I guess Black River is content with one week on top and/or unconfident they can get 2 weeks at #1, so they figured why not capitalize on Kelsea's momentum and take control of the #1 this weekend, but Warner and Sony have clearly hit the breaks so there really wasn't a huge need to accomplish this other than flexing some muscle.
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jun 18, 2015 19:05:17 GMT -5
I cannot wait for this song to drop like a rock. I am SO burnt out on it, especially the chorus! KYGO is playing the CRAP out of it this week. It's on every time I get in my car. Ready to hear something new from her!
I am REALLY happy to see a new female artist at the top of the chart, but am just over this song. LOL Was the same for me with Jana when she had her #1. It was on the chart forever.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 18, 2015 19:10:29 GMT -5
LOL Was the same for me with Jana when she had her #1. It was on the chart forever. "Why Ya Wanna" peaked at #3 on MB and Billboard.
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jesster
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Post by jesster on Jun 18, 2015 20:49:36 GMT -5
Debates over radio diversity ratios and such aside, it's nice to see this do well. I saw Kelsea at a showcase type thing last year, she was enjoyable though I can't say that live she made as strong an impression performing as RaeLynn or Maddie & Tae. Her song really works well for radio (obviously lol). And her voice is very listenable over the airways vs. some of the female voices that can come across a little shrill or grating. (Male voices also having their own susceptibilities to annoying qualities ... )
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jun 18, 2015 21:48:32 GMT -5
LOL Was the same for me with Jana when she had her #1. It was on the chart forever. "Why Ya Wanna" peaked at #3 on MB and Billboard. Oh. haha. I didn't watch too closely back then, but that song just was played FOREVER. I felt the same way about it that I feel about Kelseas song now. I just heard it again on my way home. The thing is that now I actually like the Jana song. I don't think this one will grow on me later after its faded away.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Jun 18, 2015 21:53:20 GMT -5
"Why Ya Wanna" peaked at #3 on MB and Billboard. Oh. haha. I didn't watch too closely back then, but that song just was played FOREVER. I felt the same way about it that I feel about Kelseas song now. I just heard it again on my way home. The thing is that now I actually like the Jana song. I don't think this one will grow on me later after its faded away. No, I hear ya, lol. I never liked "Why Ya Wanna" in the first place (unpopular opinion), and it was most certainly overplayed in 2012, at least where I was. I actually haven't heard "Love Me Like You Mean It" as many times as others have. The Highway has been playing "Dibs" regularly and WYRK never gets past 40 spins for any song at any given time.
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blueguitar
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Post by blueguitar on Jun 18, 2015 22:04:13 GMT -5
Oh. haha. I didn't watch too closely back then, but that song just was played FOREVER. I felt the same way about it that I feel about Kelseas song now. I just heard it again on my way home. The thing is that now I actually like the Jana song. I don't think this one will grow on me later after its faded away. No, I hear ya, lol. I never liked "Why Ya Wanna" in the first place (unpopular opinion), and it was most certainly overplayed in 2012, at least where I was. I actually haven't heard "Love Me Like You Mean It" as many times as others have. The Highway has been playing "Dibs" regularly and WYRK never gets past 40 spins for any song at any given time. I usually listen to The Highway but the satellite thingy in my car isn't working right now. So I am stuck with KYGO and KWOF. To be fair I looked up KYGO's playlist today and they have spun it 9 times. I think I was in my car each time. I really like her voice, but may smash my radio soon. I am ready for her to move on to Dibs. haven't heard it yet, but there is no way it can be more annoying to me than this song right now.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jun 20, 2015 3:21:14 GMT -5
Any song with a spin gain such as this one as it reaches the top is a mortal lock to have the bottom drop out if it the following week, and this one is no exception; a loss of well over 2,000 spins next week would appear to be a foregone conclusion.
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