dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 3, 2015 22:50:33 GMT -5
As for their next single, I expect ZBB to release a summery, beachy song (even though they've always released their beach singles third) that will sell very well. "Mango Tree (feat. Sara Bareilles)" and "Castaway" both sound like lighter summer songs. They could also release the light and breezy "One Day", which they've been playing in concert for years. Zac also expects "Beauitful Drug" to be a crossover hit, so that could also be released next. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next. I've seen they've been playing "Castaway" recently in their shows. Haven't heard the audio, but it's been listed online. This doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be a single, but it does seem that they might be at least trying it out live to see the reaction. I agree though, I'm ready for another beach anthem from these guys, and with as hot as they are right now, I bet it would be a smash this summer.
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zjames
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Post by zjames on Apr 3, 2015 23:58:03 GMT -5
As for their next single, I expect ZBB to release a summery, beachy song (even though they've always released their beach singles third) that will sell very well. "Mango Tree (feat. Sara Bareilles)" and "Castaway" both sound like lighter summer songs. They could also release the light and breezy "One Day", which they've been playing in concert for years. Zac also expects "Beauitful Drug" to be a crossover hit, so that could also be released next. It's going to be interesting to see what happens next. I've seen they've been playing "Castaway" recently in their shows. Haven't heard the audio, but it's been listed online. This doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be a single, but it does seem that they might be at least trying it out live to see the reaction. I agree though, I'm ready for another beach anthem from these guys, and with as hot as they are right now, I bet it would be a smash this summer. Not the best quality, but it sounds like another summer smash for them.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 4, 2015 9:13:27 GMT -5
8100 spins and 63 million audience impressions at MediaBase:
2 1 ZAC BROWN BAND Homegrown 8104 7645 459 63.097
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 4, 2015 12:55:10 GMT -5
Sam gained 33 more spins and 100k more in audience today over ZBB but "Homegrown" had a solid 445k and 75 spin gain itself and I expect ZBB to get the MB #1 tomorrow, as they've showed that they want the #1 position on both charts and I don't think their promotion team will have any desire to potentially be out done here.
"Lonely Eyes" will fall short this week as Chris only gained 10 more spins than ZBB, even though he saw a 865k increase in audience. Chris would need roughly 300 spins and over 1.5 million in gained audience tomorrow to have a shot at it and I don't see that happening, especially with two strong singles in his way. Just to show how difficult it will be, Brad's "River Bank" (which had a ridiculous update on a Sunday this past August) gained a whopping 253 spins, and that's still short of what I think Chris will need tomorrow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2015 13:41:40 GMT -5
I'm not convinced that this song is going to get a 2nd week at #1 on Billboard, and of course if that happens then I'm going to be super annoyed. Basically I'm worried that ZBB will pull a Rucker, and "Homegrown" will lose a chunk of spins/audience on Monday morning's MB update. They'd still easily get the MB #1, but a loss on Monday morning would essentially forfeit the BB #1 and hand it over to Sam Hunt or Chris Young instead.
Now, don't misunderstand the top paragraph--I don't necessarily think that's going to happen. I'm just saying that it could, and the reason I think so is because I've seen it far too many times where a song has been in a close race, then secured the MB #1, and then immediately hit the brakes. And ZBB might have incentive to do so, since they've already secured the BB #1.
But I'll put it in percentages. I'll give ZBB a 98% chance of securing the Mediabase #1, with maybe the remaining 2% going to Chris Young (or even Sam Hunt). Very doubtful that either of them overtakes ZBB by tomorrow morning. For Billboard, I'll give ZBB a 77% chance of getting a 2nd week at #1 there, and I'm going to give Sam Hunt a 13% chance at the BB #1 and Chris Young a 10% chance.
Darius Rucker co-hosts Lon Helton's countdown this weekend (along with Lady A's Charles Kelley, lol), and ZBB co-hosts the show next weekend. I don't think ZBB has any chance at 3 weeks at #1 though. I definitely think Sam will be #1 by the end of next week.
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Ten Pound Hammer
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Post by Ten Pound Hammer on Apr 4, 2015 16:39:41 GMT -5
I honestly can't quibble with ZBB having a chart run usually suited more for Luke.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 5, 2015 12:07:18 GMT -5
As expected, "Homegrown" maintained the #1 position today on MB as ZBB gained 50 spins and 393k in audience. Sam out gained ZBB by 31 spins but ZBB gained 30k more in audience. Chris gained 110 spins and 520k in audience, which wasn't anywhere near what he needed today. All in all, today's update was exactly what I expected and "Homegrown" becomes ZBB's 13th #1 MB single after barely edging out "Homegrown Honey" for the Billboard #1 last week.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 6, 2015 12:26:45 GMT -5
I'm not convinced that this song is going to get a 2nd week at #1 on Billboard, and of course if that happens then I'm going to be super annoyed. Basically I'm worried that ZBB will pull a Rucker, and "Homegrown" will lose a chunk of spins/audience on Monday morning's MB update. They'd still easily get the MB #1, but a loss on Monday morning would essentially forfeit the BB #1 and hand it over to Sam Hunt or Chris Young instead. Now, don't misunderstand the top paragraph--I don't necessarily think that's going to happen. I'm just saying that it could, and the reason I think so is because I've seen it far too many times where a song has been in a close race, then secured the MB #1, and then immediately hit the brakes. And ZBB might have incentive to do so, since they've already secured the BB #1. But I'll put it in percentages. I'll give ZBB a 98% chance of securing the Mediabase #1, with maybe the remaining 2% going to Chris Young (or even Sam Hunt). Very doubtful that either of them overtakes ZBB by tomorrow morning. For Billboard, I'll give ZBB a 77% chance of getting a 2nd week at #1 there, and I'm going to give Sam Hunt a 13% chance at the BB #1 and Chris Young a 10% chance. Darius Rucker co-hosts Lon Helton's countdown this weekend (along with Lady A's Charles Kelley, lol), and ZBB co-hosts the show next weekend. I don't think ZBB has any chance at 3 weeks at #1 though. I definitely think Sam will be #1 by the end of next week. ZBB did not lose audience on Monday as they increased 425k. Sam had a pretty big day though gaining 880k in audience, while Chris hit the break pedal today with just a .026k increase in audience. The MB gains over the past 8 days are "Homegrown" (3.5 million), "Take Your Time" (4.7 million) and "Lonely Eyes" (just under 3.0 million). I expect ZBB to be the #1 song on Billboard for a second (and final) week, with Sam taking over next Monday.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 6, 2015 12:41:56 GMT -5
I was glad to see that ZBB wasn't satisfied with only the MB #1 this week. Anything less than 2 weeks on Billboard would have seemed like an act of robbery in my opinion. Reminds me of the "Drunk On A Plane" vs "Meanwhile Back At Mama's" race, except Sam will still get a week at #1 here, while Tim had to settle for a #2 peak.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 6, 2015 19:44:23 GMT -5
Sorry for double post, but Zac Brown Band is playing this song live for the Men's Basketball National Championship right now. Great to see them getting this much promotion on this album cycle (Saturday Night Live was big for them).
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zjames
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Post by zjames on Apr 6, 2015 19:49:48 GMT -5
Sorry for double post, but Zac Brown Band is playing this song live for the Men's Basketball National Championship right now. Great to see them getting this much promotion on this album cycle (Saturday Night Live was big for them). It wasn't live. They played a concert last night with Cole Swindell, Kacey Musgraves, and Lady Antebellum and the footage was from that. But I agree that their promotion of the new album has been fantastic. I think Jekyll + Hyde is gonna be huge for them.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 6, 2015 19:56:26 GMT -5
Sorry for double post, but Zac Brown Band is playing this song live for the Men's Basketball National Championship right now. Great to see them getting this much promotion on this album cycle (Saturday Night Live was big for them). It wasn't live. They played a concert last night with Cole Swindell, Kacey Musgraves, and Lady Antebellum and the footage was from that. But I agree that their promotion of the new album has been fantastic. I think Jekyll + Hyde is gonna be huge for them. Oh thanks for correcting, I was only half listening. I'm really hoping for another sales boost here, and would love to see this go Platinum.
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hosssulpizio
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Post by hosssulpizio on Apr 6, 2015 23:49:44 GMT -5
I love "Homegrown" and I'm so happy to see that it is #1 for a second week in a row!
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Apr 9, 2015 9:44:18 GMT -5
Look at these spins and audience totals of the top two:
1 1 ZAC BROWN BAND Homegrown 8225 7951 274 64.443 2 2 SAM HUNT Take Your Time 8062 7706 356 63.036
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Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Apr 9, 2015 12:24:55 GMT -5
Look at these spins and audience totals of the top two: 1 1 ZAC BROWN BAND Homegrown 8225 7951 274 64.443 2 2 SAM HUNT Take Your Time 8062 7706 356 63.036 Holy bejeebers! :o Talk about overplaying the top songs!
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 9, 2015 12:39:02 GMT -5
Yeah ZBB is going for another week at #1 here as "Homegrown" is up 43 spins and 391k in audience today. "Homegrown" has gained 67 spins and 875k in audience since Sunday while "Take Your Time" has gained 108 spins and 485k in audience in that same amount of time. Right now if I had to guess, I would think "Homegrown" would at least get the MB #1, with perhaps them conceding on Monday to allow Sam to take Billboard since ZBB has spent two weeks there already, but that's just a guess. Personally I would love to see them hang on to both charts as long as they can but that's a ton to ask for at these astronomical numbers.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Apr 10, 2015 7:16:56 GMT -5
Unfortunately the old chart performance rules are well behind us, as evidenced by the fact that most songs which soar to #1 in 11 or 12 weeks are mortal locks to spend at least a month in the penthouse, and this standout tune is merely the latest one to earn two weeks tops on top.
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rsmatto
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Post by rsmatto on Apr 10, 2015 12:37:32 GMT -5
Unfortunately the old chart performance rules are well behind us, as evidenced by the fact that most songs which soar to #1 in 11 or 12 weeks are mortal locks to spend at least a month in the penthouse, and this standout tune is merely the latest one to earn two weeks tops on top. But if it holds Sam out of #1, did it do it's job for the folks who think Sam's "Not country?" ;)
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 10, 2015 12:46:29 GMT -5
Unfortunately the old chart performance rules are well behind us, as evidenced by the fact that most songs which soar to #1 in 11 or 12 weeks are mortal locks to spend at least a month in the penthouse, and this standout tune is merely the latest one to earn two weeks tops on top. But if it holds Sam out of #1, did it do it's job for the folks who think Sam's "Not country?" ;) I think MCA will get a #1 on at least one chart. With Chris' song free fall now in full effect, the next closest song is Dierks' "Say You Do", which is still over 900 spins and nearly 6.0 million behind in total audience. I still fear the old concede on Monday by ZBB so Sam can take Billboard while ZBB would get two weeks on MB with already spending two on Billboard. Personally, I really miss the days where huge hits were genuinely reflected by how many weeks they spent at #1, so I'm rooting for "Homegrown" to stay there as long as possible, but it's nearly impossible at these ridiculous numbers both ZBB and Sam are putting up right now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 13:16:15 GMT -5
There's absolutely no way Hunt doesn't peak at the top of both charts. If TYT doesn't finish on top this week it will certainly next week. Dierks is Sam's label mate so there's no way UMG will let SYD get to #1 until TYT does. I don't necessarily like the way this is working out though. Sam Hunt is more deserving of a long run at no. 1 than ZBB and he wouldn't be having so much trouble taking ZBB down this week if MCA didn't "over-push" last week.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 10, 2015 13:22:46 GMT -5
There's absolutely no way Hunt doesn't peak at the top of both charts. If TYT doesn't finish on top this week it will certainly next week. Dierks is Sam's label mate so there's no way UMG will let SYD get to #1 until TYT does. I don't necessarily like the way this is working out though. Sam Hunt is more deserving of a long run at no. 1 than ZBB and he wouldn't be having so much trouble taking ZBB down this week if MCA didn't "over-push" last week. I think MCA just assumed ZBB would be out of the way by now since the push was massive last week, but alas, "Homegrown" is still in front, lol. I agree about "Take Your Time" deserving of a long stay at #1, but sometimes the timing isn't in your favor. Sam will get to #1 though since it's 2015, and not 10 years ago when deserving songs sat multiple weeks at #2 on a consistent basis ("I Go Back", "Baby Girl", "Something More". etc.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 18:39:42 GMT -5
There's absolutely no way Hunt doesn't peak at the top of both charts. If TYT doesn't finish on top this week it will certainly next week. Dierks is Sam's label mate so there's no way UMG will let SYD get to #1 until TYT does. I don't necessarily like the way this is working out though. Sam Hunt is more deserving of a long run at no. 1 than ZBB and he wouldn't be having so much trouble taking ZBB down this week if MCA didn't "over-push" last week. As much sense as this makes, I'm not convinced that it will happen. Sam has barely been able to stay level this week...can he really stay above 60 million for another 10 days yet? I suppose it's possible, but I'm just not convinced it can happen. I realize that Dierks is another UMG artist, but on the current Billboard chart he's only 5.1 million behind Sam, and if Sam loses 2-3 mil next week, it's easy to envision a scenario in which Dierks' natural rate of gain causes him to overtake Sam. UMG would obviously like Sam to get to #1 before Dierks can overtake him, but if radio isn't willing to keep Sam at such astronomically high audience levels, then the label might not have much say in the matter. In any case, I think it's in MCA's best interest to get Sam to #1 on Sunday or Monday. If they can't get to #1 on either chart, then at least they can console themselves with the fact that "Take Your Time" has already spent 9 weeks at #1 on Hot Country Songs, and will probably spend another few weeks on top of that chart. I still give Sam at least an 87% chance of going #1, whether it's this coming Sunday/Monday or on the 19th/20th, but I simply can't agree with the statement "there's absolutely no way Hunt doesn't peak at the top of both charts". As for "Homegrown", I think it's more than deserving of a big stay at #1. If it weren't for "Take Your Time", then "Homegrown" would probably be the biggest overall hit of the year so far. It just so happens that they're peaking at radio at the same time. But like sabre14 mentioned, ZBB might take their foot off the accelerator on Sunday - that would still give them a 2nd week at #1 on MB but not a 3rd week at #1 on BB.
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Apr 11, 2015 1:00:11 GMT -5
ZBB is co-hosting CC-USA this weekend, so they'll get the extra spin and easily stay at #1 on both charts this week.
MCA screwed up badly trying to fight for #1 last week in a 3-way battle with ZBB and Chris Young, when it was very obvious that ZBB would win. What they should've done is delay the start of the push to this week, and have a "backup" push week for chart ending 4/19-4/20. But now it looks like there's 2 weeks of failed attempts, and getting a 3rd push week will be near impossible. Such a shame Sam may miss #1 because of mistakes from the label! I'll be so livid if MCA posts a "Thank you Country radio" ad on Monday where they basically admit they royally screwed up and are giving up.
"Take Your Time" is still #1 in sales and #1 in National Callouts on Mediabase (highest Net Positive and also a very low 6% heavy burn). Quite frankly, I think TYT deserves to stay above 60 million AI until end of April with the impressive #1 sales/callouts stats that it's pulling. But it's up to MCA whether they're willing to spend the money or not to keep pushing.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 11, 2015 15:51:46 GMT -5
ZBB lost 40 spins today while gaining 225k in audience, vs. Sam's gain of 18 spins but only a gain of .016k in audience. "Homegrown" has gained 29 spins and 900k in audience over the past 6 days, while Sam has gained 130 spins and 665k in audience. That would put ZBB with roughly 28400 points, while Sam should have about 28000, perhaps a little over. With ZBB getting this far, I give them pretty high odds to maintain the MB #1 tomorrow, as I doubt Sam can overtake 300-400 points in one day. The real question remains will ZBB concede tomorrow, allowing MCA to have the Billboard #1? I could easily see it going either way. No matter how big a hit is these days (and these two are pretty big), at some point the bubble bursts with the super high airplay (think to a slightly lesser extent, the 'This Is How We Roll"/"Play It Again" scenario). I think the cynical side of me leans heavy here and is almost expecting "Homegrown" to ease off the pedal, allowing for "Take Your Time" to get to #1 on Monday. I just don't get a sense from any label that a third week on Billboard and two on MB is so much better in their eyes than two on each chart, which would be the case if that scenario happens. ZBB hasn't given up the strangle hold yet, which is a sign of optimism is you're rooting got "Homegrown" to find a way to shut "Take Your Time" out, but I've seen too many play nice incidents to not expect the split. I still think the distance between Dierks and Sam is important here but like jhomes87 said, nothing would be guaranteed if MCA gets shutout this weekend. Another seven more days at another +60 million in audience is still a tall task, for any single or label.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2015 18:35:15 GMT -5
I just don't get a sense from any label that a third week on Billboard and two on MB is so much better in their eyes than two on each chart, which would be the case if that scenario happens. I don't know, ZBB has been fairly conscious about Billboard and the fact that they already have an extra week at #1 there. On Monday they put up big ads in both the Billboard Country Update and Country Aircheck Weekly issues, with the text reading "Our fastest rising #1 single to-date...and still growing!" The ads were exactly the same, except that the BB ad had an additional line of text noting that this was the 2nd week at #1 for "Homegrown". Now obviously I agree that there's still a chance they could post a loss on Monday morning and forfeit the 3rd week at #1, but that begs the question: why even bother pushing for a 2nd week at #1 on MB? This was already a 2-week #1 in their eyes, as evidenced by the BB ad on Monday. We saw similar situations last summer, with Joe Nichols and Luke Bryan. Joe and his team counted "Yeah" as a 3-week #1, and Luke and his team counted "Play It Again" as a 4-week #1. And you can go back even farther to Tim McGraw's "One Of Those Nights", which spent only 1 Sunday at #1 on MB, but was a 3-week #1 on Billboard. The ads that Big Machine put out counted "One Of Those Nights" as a 3-week #1. I think ZBB wants a 3rd week at #1. What I'm really wondering is if MCA Nashville is going to do a little mini "stealth push" either today or tomorrow, or if they're busy regrouping and thinking "ok, what do we need to do to get to #1 next weekend?" Since Monday, ZBB is up 530k, whereas Sam is actually down about 140k. And the gap on Billoard was almost 1.3 million, which means that it might be closer to 1.5 mil now. I've been waiting and waiting for Sam to make his move but it still hasn't happened yet. Sam's only behind by 103 spins on MB, but he just hasn't been able to gain any audience this week. If Zac loses 400-500k on Monday morning and Sam gains 500k+, that might be a big enough swing that maybe the BB results would be in doubt...but with each passing day, ZBB's #1 chances have only increased in my eyes. I'm giving ZBB a 90% chance of being the MB #1 tomorrow, and a 75% chance of getting a 3rd week at #1 on Monday's BB. I still think Sam can get to #1 by the 19th/20th, but at the same time...another 9 days trying to stay steady (above 62-63 million, no less) while simultaneously trying to hold off Dierks? That won't be an easy task. I think I'll reduce Sam's #1 chances for next weekend down to 60-70%.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 11, 2015 19:01:59 GMT -5
I just don't get a sense from any label that a third week on Billboard and two on MB is so much better in their eyes than two on each chart, which would be the case if that scenario happens. Now obviously I agree that there's still a chance they could post a loss on Monday morning and forfeit the 3rd week at #1, but that begs the question: why even bother pushing for a 2nd week at #1 on MB? This was already a 2-week #1 in their eyes, as evidenced by the BB ad on Monday. We saw similar situations last summer, with Joe Nichols and Luke Bryan. Joe and his team counted "Yeah" as a 3-week #1, and Luke and his team counted "Play It Again" as a 4-week #1. And you can go back even farther to Tim McGraw's "One Of Those Nights", which spent only 1 Sunday at #1 on MB, but was a 3-week #1 on Billboard. The ads that Big Machine put out counted "One Of Those Nights" as a 3-week #1. Good point, but who's to say that this scenario is an opportunity for both labels to do a "wink, wink" and split this week, plus the fact perhaps I'm a little bias towards ZBB being satisfied with a second week at #1 on MB to go along with their two on Billboard already - I still could see it going either way tomorrow. I still think that every situation is different and a third week on Billboard, while a proud accomplishment (especially these days, which might contradict myself here), might not be as important by Saturday as it was 5 or 6 days ago. For the record, I am hoping for ZBB to sweep both charts this week as I feel they can do it without much trouble (the MB #1 is all but sewed up IMO). We haven't had many 3 week #1 songs lately so that's probably enough to sway me into thinking that ZBB will have their foot firmly on the gas pedal one more day, which would leave MCA all by themselves with their insane airplay and a race against time to hold it, or close to holding it come next weekend.
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Post by Daryl the Beryl on Apr 12, 2015 20:37:48 GMT -5
Still #1 on RTT
Country No.1 Zac Brown Band Homegrown +43248 Thomas Rhett Crash And Burn
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Apr 13, 2015 10:46:54 GMT -5
Well, "Take Your Time" didn't get the huge push it needed, so Zac Brown Band should be #1 on Billboard for a 3rd straight week. It feels great to have a long multi-seeker again, and I'm glad ZBB weren't just content with 1 week on both charts.
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kw9461
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Post by kw9461 on Apr 13, 2015 11:31:37 GMT -5
Well, "Take Your Time" didn't get the huge push it needed, so Zac Brown Band should be #1 on Billboard for a 3rd straight week. It feels great to have a long multi-seeker again, and I'm glad ZBB weren't just content with 1 week on both charts. If that's the case it's well deserved. It's completely subjective, but this song just "feels" like the biggest hit of the year thus far (much like American Kids did last summer). Glad to see all of our fears about ZBB and Homegrown's ability to promote were premature, these guys are clearly here for the long haul. Very excited for their new record (particularly since there has been an absolute dearth of albums thus far this year)
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 13, 2015 11:57:10 GMT -5
I think it was in MCA's best interest to hold off on any sort of push this week and try and maintain "Take Your Time's" numbers. Any late push likely would have fallen short and cost them a chance of holding steady til next weekend. Will Sam keep his massive audience though next Saturday or Sunday? I don't exactly know but it was the only hope they had to get to #1 at some point cause ZBB was definitely not to be defeated the past two weeks.
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