dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 19, 2021 2:32:58 GMT -5
She’s clearing 2m based on the increasing hype and quality of this album. I-
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 19, 2021 8:10:53 GMT -5
In b4 someone says 3 million (again).
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Nov 19, 2021 8:54:47 GMT -5
I don't think it's possible she can do over 3 million, but I also don't think less than 1 million is possible. I tried to keep low expectations for Adele in the past but I was always proven wrong, except for with Skyfall where I was right (but that's a really good song, I don't know why it didn't do better). I think she'll do about half of 25, so about 1.7 million.
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magik
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Post by magik on Nov 19, 2021 9:05:10 GMT -5
The 1.8 million predictions are probably too much. But I hope she surprises, but with Adele, nothing's really a surprise.
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Angel
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Post by Angel on Nov 19, 2021 9:55:36 GMT -5
I still think 1.5 million SPS is entirely realistic
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WolfSpear
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Post by WolfSpear on Nov 19, 2021 10:02:20 GMT -5
I’m thinking more like 1.1-1.3 mil with 1.5 being on my higher end.
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Post by The Black Bird on Nov 19, 2021 10:03:42 GMT -5
My prediction is somewhere between 1.3 and 1.8m SPS.
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Nov 19, 2021 11:06:49 GMT -5
She’s clearing 2m based on the increasing hype and quality of this album. I think I'm going to roll with this. Who thought she was gonna hit 3mil last album?
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Nov 19, 2021 13:17:58 GMT -5
I'll give my prediction when we see the first day streaming numbers...hehe.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 19, 2021 16:55:42 GMT -5
"will easily exceed one million in its first week out, and could go far higher."
I assume they are confident in this due to massive pre-order numbers. She has the top 11 on Apple Music with the last track being #17. Her streaming is likely going to be huge - but perhaps not record-breaking due to the album being only 12 tracks.
far higher makes me think they're expecting 2-3 million SPS. I wouldn't be surprised if she did that. I'm going to go with ~2 million sales and ~2.5mil SPS.
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aussie1
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Post by aussie1 on Nov 19, 2021 21:53:23 GMT -5
I hope 25 and 21 get pushed back into the top 10 as well that would be so iconic to have 3 album in the top ten. I'm sure it's been done before (Prince I believe) and more I'm sure but it would be really cool.
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WolfSpear
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Post by WolfSpear on Nov 19, 2021 22:44:56 GMT -5
Pretty sure the only other woman to send 3 in the top 10 simultaneously was Whitney Houston.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Nov 19, 2021 22:45:50 GMT -5
I hope 25 and 21 get pushed back into the top 10 as well that would be so iconic to have 3 album in the top ten. I'm sure it's been done before (Prince I believe) and more I'm sure but it would be really cool. I would LOVE to see her occupy the entire top 4. Lol that would be something only her and a few other artists could pull off.
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Caviar
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Post by Caviar on Nov 19, 2021 22:51:57 GMT -5
iTunes rankings
30 #1 25 #6 21 #7 19 #15
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mcsteamy
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Post by mcsteamy on Nov 20, 2021 0:33:36 GMT -5
iTunes rankings 30 #1 25 #6 21 #7 19 #15 The domination
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Nov 20, 2021 0:41:33 GMT -5
I hope 25 and 21 get pushed back into the top 10 as well that would be so iconic to have 3 album in the top ten. I'm sure it's been done before (Prince I believe) and more I'm sure but it would be really cool. If 21 goes back to the Top 10, it would break a tie with Bruce Springsteen's Born To Run for 2nd most weeks in the Top 10. Both albums currently have 84 weeks in the Top 10.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Nov 20, 2021 5:37:15 GMT -5
good numbers on Spotify but nothing groundbreaking. SOUR opened with 28 million with 1 less track, and finished the week with 300 million on-demand streams in the US. based on that, I'm going to guess Adele will garner somewhere in between 210 and 240 million streams, which should bring in around 140-160k streaming units to her total.
#1 Easy On Me 2,862,433 #2 Oh My God 2,315,914 #3 Stranger By Nature 2,101,828 #4 My Little Love 2,013,296 #6 Can I Get It 1,871,604 #7 I Drink Wine 1,774,866 #8 Cry Your Heart Out 1,774,175 #9 To Be Loved 1,523,358 #10 All Night Parking 1,432,666 #11 Woman Like Me 1,422,622 #12 Hold On 1,368,804 #13 Love Is A Game 1,174,381 Total: 21,635,947
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firefox
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Post by firefox on Nov 20, 2021 5:41:21 GMT -5
Is 1 Million still on sight?
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 20, 2021 5:42:31 GMT -5
RIP everyone who thought she was going to do 2M-3M
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iamsorare
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Post by iamsorare on Nov 20, 2021 5:44:53 GMT -5
RIP everyone who thought she was going to do 2M-3M with a mediocre album no! If she had released a great album like "25'' then yes!
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Nov 20, 2021 6:06:50 GMT -5
oops. I guess about 200k from SPS. Hopefully the physicals and digitals would be enough to get to like 1,5 million.
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lincroft
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Post by lincroft on Nov 20, 2021 7:31:11 GMT -5
The lack of information about pre-order numbers was a red flag. Normally in the lead up to the release of a big album you'd expect lots of projections from Billboard or Hits about how it might do. But with this there was nothing. I know Hits said it was expected to have the biggest opening of the year, but I"m wondering now. The NYT numbers certainly look way off.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 8:45:43 GMT -5
3 million gang is gonna be hella quiet today.
(Good numbers overall but the record brraking components is gonn have to be pure sales).
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Post by Push The Button on Nov 20, 2021 8:56:19 GMT -5
3 million gang is gonna be helka quiet today. (Good numbers overall but the record brraking components is gonn have to be pure sales). There were more people predicting sub-1 million than 3 million, and they’ll be just as wrong.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 9:08:39 GMT -5
3 million gang is gonna be helka quiet today. (Good numbers overall but the record brraking components is gonn have to be pure sales). There were more people predicting sub-1 million than 3 million, and they’ll be just as wrong. Well yeah, most likely... but I wanna point out that CLB, folklore and Red TV opened to bigger streams (and had way more tracks which helps) and failed to reach 1m. I know it's Adele so it's probably gonna fall between 800k and 1.5milli which is amazing anyways. And the longevity she's gonna serve... the world is not ready. It's just that some people didn't really grasp the fact that even record brraking streams can't quite make up for the sales collapse (just ask Drake, he keeps breaking streaming records yet his openings for albums keep getting smaller in total SPS).
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Post by Push The Button on Nov 20, 2021 9:18:00 GMT -5
Her physical sales will blow the physical numbers of those records out of the water. I don’t think it’s an apt comparison.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 20, 2021 9:25:18 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her Apple Music numbers - she looks to be doing better there than spotify.
And I'm still team 2-3 million for now! Her SPS will be lower than I thought though. If she's doing better on Apple Music then 200-250k max.
I just want to get some figures for how much she's done physically in the US. :( In the UK she looks to be on track for 300k first week, maybe more if her TV special tomorrow gives her a big boost.
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magik
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Post by magik on Nov 20, 2021 9:29:42 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her Apple Music numbers - she looks to be doing better there than spotify. And I'm still team 2-3 million for now! Her SPS will be lower than I thought though. If she's doing better on Apple Music then 200-250k max. I just want to get some figures for how much she's done physically in the US. In the UK she looks to be on track for 300k first week, maybe more if her TV special tomorrow gives her a big boost. Is 300k first week considered "massive" in the UK?
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 20, 2021 9:43:18 GMT -5
Yeah, pure sales was going to be the dominant factor for this album. It was never going to be close to a 50-50 split in terms of the equivalent-albums sum. For the type of music she makes, though (mostly ballads), and being in her 30s, the streaming numbers are impressive.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 9:46:06 GMT -5
Her physical sales will blow the physical numbers of those records out of the water. I don’t think it’s an apt comparison. For sure. We have to wait a couple days for the updated HDD prediction. But take into consideration the vinyl record is like... 110k or whatever RED TV just did. Let's say she does 2.5x, plus 250k from streaming. That's 550k ish from the two most popular components of the year. She would need just as much from CDs and downloads... CDs are gonna be healthy, but the download market is dead as f**k (see EOM's debuting below 100k on sales). Anything could happen. I do hope she crosses 1m+ easily because it's probably gonna be the last time until some sort of recalibration of the formula happens.
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