HITS 11/26: Adele #1 838k Taylor #2 169k

[iHype.]

As of this week, UMG has nine of the year’s Top 10 debuts with Sony's Tyler, The Creator being the spoiler to a perfect 10. Of course, these rankings will be short lived as Adele's 30 (Columbia) is on deck for Friday and is expected to open with the year’s biggest number.

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=329192

So we know early projections are expecting 600k+ minimum (Certified Lover Boy has 2021's highest opening with 613k). 

[fengyu]

do we think she can crack 1M?

[Future Captain]

They're probably kinda lowballing it? I would it find it shocking if Adele ends up opening with less than what Taylor did with folklore

[iHype.]

Nov 13, 2021 14:50:06 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

They're probably kinda lowballing it? I would it find it shocking if Adele ends up opening with less than what Taylor did with folklore

I don't think they're lowballing it, they didn't say she would do just that range. They said she is expected to have the highest opening of 2021 which means 600k+ is a minimum expectation.

It could be anywhere from 650k to 2 million+ lol. I think they will begin to give an actual range based on pre-orders in a few days, right before the album release. 

I remember with 25, they began teasing she could possibly do 2 million+ in the week leading to the album release, then she did 3 mil+ ofcourse. 

[phieaglesfan712]

lol, it’s way too early for this. The HITS 11/19 tracking week has barely begun. This thread needs to be locked until we get the final results for that week.

[Choco]

I'm still thinking about 950k ish. But anything between 800k to 2m is possible.

[Music Fan]

Nov 13, 2021 14:45:16 GMT -5 fengyu said:

do we think she can crack 1M?

She will 100% crack 1M. The real question is how close will she get to 2M. I'm thinking 1.8M.

[spiritboy]

I can see it reaching 1.5m at most, but i do think 1.2-1.3m would be more possible if she'll crack 1m. There's a possibility she may not.

[musicfan134]

In pure sales? 500k max. And that's being generous.

With SPS, she'll probably pass 1 million.

[Taylor.]

I dunno, for some reason I'm feeling 850k. But I'd love it if she exceeded a million.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 14, 2021 13:29:28 GMT -5 musicfan134 said:

In pure sales? 500k max. And that's being generous.

With SPS, she'll probably pass 1 million.

To put this into context, CLB got 562k SEAs from 743.67 million on-demand streams of the album’s 21 tracks, while 30 would need at least 500k SEAs from 12 tracks.

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 14, 2021 13:30:31 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

I dunno, for some reason I'm feeling 850k. But I'd love it if she exceeded a million.

How come this thread isn't being locked?

[Gary]

Nov 14, 2021 13:59:08 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 14, 2021 13:30:31 GMT -5 Taylor. said:

I dunno, for some reason I'm feeling 850k. But I'd love it if she exceeded a million.

How come this thread isn't being locked?

Why are you worried about it?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

25

1st week 3,48m
2nd week 1,11m
3rd week 695k
4th week 790k
5th week 1,16m

she literally crossed 700k mark almost 5 times with 25, I'm pretty sure she'll open with 1m+

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 14, 2021 14:00:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Nov 14, 2021 13:59:08 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

How come this thread isn't being locked?

Why are you worried about it?

Because the mods lock charting threads if we are hours early. Heck, I tried to create a HITS thread on a Tuesday of the tracking week, and it got locked. This is more than a week before this, so if they keep this open, it would be very inconsistent with the precedent set. If they keep this open, I might as well make a HITS 5/19/2023 thread with Rihanna's comeback.

[iHype.]

Nov 14, 2021 14:08:06 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 14, 2021 14:00:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Why are you worried about it?

Because the mods lock charting threads if we are hours early. Heck, I tried to create a HITS thread on a Tuesday of the tracking week, and it got locked. This is more than a week before this, so if they keep this open, it would be very inconsistent with the precedent set. If they keep this open, I might as well make a HITS 5/19/2023 thread with Rihanna's comeback.

The precedent set with HITS threads is they begin when HITS starts giving some projections…

If your thread got locked it’s because it included no projection. It’s also not “more than a week before” as the album drops on Friday.

Also 25’s thread began in the week leading to the release when we got early projections:
pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/154353/hits-adele-354-773-468

So going by the “precedent set”, 30’s thread would also begin in the week leading to release. :)

[Gary]

Nov 14, 2021 14:08:06 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 14, 2021 14:00:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Why are you worried about it?

Because the mods lock charting threads if we are hours early. Heck, I tried to create a HITS thread on a Tuesday of the tracking week, and it got locked. This is more than a week before this, so if they keep this open, it would be very inconsistent with the precedent set. If they keep this open, I might as well make a HITS 5/19/2023 thread with Rihanna's comeback.

The phrase "projected to open with the years biggest number" was the catalyst, granted that is very generic but it is still industry information relevant to the album

Rather than clutter the thread with more complaining, I suggest the report button if you truly feel there is an injustice here.

Creating new threads about Rihanna out of spite I am sure will be very well received ---- Good luck

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Nov 14, 2021 14:08:06 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Nov 14, 2021 14:00:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Why are you worried about it?

Because the mods lock charting threads if we are hours early. Heck, I tried to create a HITS thread on a Tuesday of the tracking week, and it got locked. This is more than a week before this, so if they keep this open, it would be very inconsistent with the precedent set. If they keep this open, I might as well make a HITS 5/19/2023 thread with Rihanna's comeback.

When you started the thread, did you actually have anything to say or did you start it so your name could be attached to the thread? There’s enough to talk about with Adele’s release to justify it. Stop being childish.

[kcdawg13]

She'll definitely open with 1 million+, the question is how much more than that it'll get. It should beat Reputation, I think it'll do like 1.6 million overall.

[Envoirment]

I assume that minimum will be based off pre-orders etc. She smashed the record for quickest album to 1 million pre-saves on Apple Music and that was over 2 weeks ago. It's safe to say she'll likely have 1.5-2 million pre-saves before release (maybe more). She's going to smash streaming records despite only being a 12 track album.

I think her pure sales will be over 1 million quite easily - especially given the fact that Sony said they had pressed over 500,000 vinyls so far over a week ago. Of course that's globally, but I bet a good chunk of those will turn into US sales. She'll break the vinyl sales record easily too.

I think Adele will do what she's does best and beat predictions and smash. I'm thinking 2-3 million SPS first week.

[WolfSpear]

Well hey, she did sell 3.4 million in an era where reaching 1 million seemed unlikely by most. Then again, keep in mind we're talking a 6 year difference... which is like an eternity in this industry.

I'm going to guess 600-800k in pure sales with 1 million SPS. It's one thing to follow up 21, it's another working off the heels of 25.

At least that's my perspective.

[aussie1]

Nov 14, 2021 14:03:56 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

25

1st week 3,48m
2nd week 1,11m
3rd week 695k
4th week 790k
5th week 1,16m

she literally crossed 700k mark almost 5 times with 25, I'm pretty sure she'll open with 1m+

What happened week 5? Christmas?

[korbel16]

Is it confirmed that she’ll release the album on streaming platforms the day of release? I remember 25 was only available for purchase. If so that would hurt debit week sales a little bit. But i can’t see her not above 1 million all together anyway

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

It would be era suicide if the album were withheld from streaming on release day.

[Choco]

Yup. I feel like withholding the Chris S. feature from streaming is already a big mistake, but I can't see them witholding the entire album a la 25.

[Push The Button]

1.58 million. Book it.

Remember when she had 2015's best-selling digital album after a day? Good times.

[Choco]

What's the best selling digital album this year? She can easily top that in a single day but I'm sure the number needed is way lower in 2021, give or take a BTS-like event.

[Future Captain]

Nov 15, 2021 20:00:15 GMT -5 Choco said:

What's the best selling digital album this year? She can easily top that in a single day but I'm sure the number needed is way lower in 2021, give or take a BTS-like event.

Pretty sure the top digital album is Morgan Wallen's with like 200k, so that would be really easy to beat for Adele

[Envoirment]

Her album should be released to streaming right away as it was put up for pre-saving on Apple Music.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she did 500k+ on day one.

[Future Captain]

30 being only 12 tracks long is going to somewhat hinder its streaming potential, but Drake got 740 million streams with 21 tracks, around 35 million per track. If Adele get 50 million per track (which would be enough to take the entire top 10 in Hot 100 I think), that's around 600 million streams for around 450k streaming unit. Fingers crossed she sell at least 1 million album for at least 1,5 million SPS