Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 9:47:34 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her Apple Music numbers - she looks to be doing better there than spotify. And I'm still team 2-3 million for now! Her SPS will be lower than I thought though. If she's doing better on Apple Music then 200-250k max. I just want to get some figures for how much she's done physically in the US. In the UK she looks to be on track for 300k first week, maybe more if her TV special tomorrow gives her a big boost. Is 300k first week considered "massive" in the UK? Biggest opening of the year. I think ABBA has the biggest one yet with like 200k. And IIRC only Ed Sheeran and ABBA have even broken 100k there.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 20, 2021 9:51:12 GMT -5
I'm more interested in her Apple Music numbers - she looks to be doing better there than spotify. And I'm still team 2-3 million for now! Her SPS will be lower than I thought though. If she's doing better on Apple Music then 200-250k max. I just want to get some figures for how much she's done physically in the US. In the UK she looks to be on track for 300k first week, maybe more if her TV special tomorrow gives her a big boost. Is 300k first week considered "massive" in the UK? Yes, biggest opening since Ed's Divide in 2017. It may even do a bit more depending on how she holds up through the week and she has a TV special tomorrow in the UK. The physical market in the UK has collpased a lot over the last few years. She did 800k with 25. So going from 800k to 300k is a 62.5% drop. If she does the same drop in the US she'll be looking at ~1.25 million. Although her numbers in the US were more insane than the UK, so she'll likely outperform in the US compared to the UK. So most likely around 1.5 million. I'm still hopeful she can cross 2 million mark.
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magik
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Post by magik on Nov 20, 2021 10:13:44 GMT -5
Don't think 1.5 million is happening unless the physical sales are out of this world.
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purp child
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Post by purp child on Nov 20, 2021 10:39:28 GMT -5
There were more people predicting sub-1 million than 3 million, and theyβll be just as wrong. Well yeah, most likely... but I wanna point out that CLB, folklore and Red TV opened to bigger streams (and had way more tracks which helps) and failed to reach 1m. I know it's Adele so it's probably gonna fall between 800k and 1.5milli which is amazing anyways. And the longevity she's gonna serve... the world is not ready. It's just that some people didn't really grasp the fact that even record brraking streams can't quite make up for the sales collapse (just ask Drake, he keeps breaking streaming records yet his openings for albums keep getting smaller in total SPS). Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy
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mms82
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Post by mms82 on Nov 20, 2021 11:04:27 GMT -5
Well yeah, most likely... but I wanna point out that CLB, folklore and Red TV opened to bigger streams (and had way more tracks which helps) and failed to reach 1m. I know it's Adele so it's probably gonna fall between 800k and 1.5milli which is amazing anyways. And the longevity she's gonna serve... the world is not ready. It's just that some people didn't really grasp the fact that even record brraking streams can't quite make up for the sales collapse (just ask Drake, he keeps breaking streaming records yet his openings for albums keep getting smaller in total SPS). Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy Why doesn't Drake put out CDs/Vinyls? He likely would've topped 1m first week combined with Scorpion, and still done over 100k in sales first week with CLB which is outstanding anyway you slice it
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mcsteamy
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Post by mcsteamy on Nov 20, 2021 11:05:28 GMT -5
Some people are forgetting that Adele is doing these amazing streaming numbers despite selling a shitton of physical sales.
Im sorry but anyone expecting an Adele release to be carried by streaming numbers is wrong.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 11:51:01 GMT -5
Well yeah, most likely... but I wanna point out that CLB, folklore and Red TV opened to bigger streams (and had way more tracks which helps) and failed to reach 1m. I know it's Adele so it's probably gonna fall between 800k and 1.5milli which is amazing anyways. And the longevity she's gonna serve... the world is not ready. It's just that some people didn't really grasp the fact that even record brraking streams can't quite make up for the sales collapse (just ask Drake, he keeps breaking streaming records yet his openings for albums keep getting smaller in total SPS). Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy My point is that he's literally the biggest streaming thing and yet he can not reach 1 million. The formula as it is right now makes it hard to crack that mark without a huge pure sales component and that hasn't happened since reputation. And that was actually due to sales only... the last time an album managed to move enough streams and sales to combine to a milli was VIEWS. Adele and Taylor did it with a few albums but they held them from streaming initially to increase sales. His fanbase ain't gonna buy CDs so he's wise to not put too much focus into that.
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Angel
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Post by Angel on Nov 20, 2021 13:04:50 GMT -5
Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy My point is that he's literally the biggest streaming thing and yet he can not reach 1 million. The formula as it is right now makes it hard to crack that mark without a huge pure sales component and that hasn't happened since reputation. And that was actually due to sales only... the last time an album managed to move enough streams and sales to combine to a milli was VIEWS. Adele and Taylor did it with a few albums but they held them from streaming initially to increase sales. His fanbase ain't gonna buy CDs so he's wise to not put too much focus into that. I think it's worth noting that the only time Drake actually did crack one million was when he sold 850,000 that same week. CLB tapped out at 613,000 because its 743 million streams couldn't make up for the fact it didn't even sell 50,000 pure. Still not a fair comparison when you figure 30 will probably match his total SPS figure with sales alone... It was never going to be a 50/50 split...
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spiritboy
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Post by spiritboy on Nov 20, 2021 13:09:18 GMT -5
Pure sales > streams.
Adele always wins.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2021 13:36:06 GMT -5
Also, it is worth noting that half of the songs on the album are 5+ minutes, with five of those being over 6 minutes. This album wasn't designed for streaming like some releases tend to be these days, yet it is still pulling in these numbers.
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Angel
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Post by Angel on Nov 20, 2021 13:44:45 GMT -5
Also, it is worth noting that half of the songs on the album are 5+ minutes, with five of those being over 6 minutes. This album wasn't designed for streaming like some releases tend to be these days, yet it is still pulling in these numbers. Exactly Well those 5 six-minute+ songs are equivalent to 15 LNX tracks (album) or 10 Taylor tracks, so that's automatically going to suppress 30's cumulative streaming numbers. It's math. Adele: 5 @ 6+ min x 1M = 5M LNX: 15 @ 2+ min 1M = 15M Taylor 10 @ 3+ min x 1M = 10M
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 20, 2021 14:52:20 GMT -5
Some interesting numbers from this article (that, much like Pulse, has no idea where it'll land). www.billboard.com/pro/can-adele-sell-million-albums-week/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social500k vinyls global, about 250k US. 1 million CD copies (US only) - Target had to order about 500k alone to secure the exclusive bonus tracks. About 1.2 to 1.5 million copies available stateside. Insiders confident it will crack 1m expect between 1.3 (twice the foklore number) to 1.75m (half of 25). Some insiders do point out to signs that it might not quite get there (digital downloads market is dead, it's not exactly an album designed for streaming audiences to obsess over, healthy ratings didn't translate into a sales bump for "Easy On Me"). Basically they have no idea, but physical is capped at about 1.5m; if we start seeing the CD running out of stock it might get near that number.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Nov 20, 2021 16:11:09 GMT -5
Also, it is worth noting that half of the songs on the album are 5+ minutes, with five of those being over 6 minutes. This album wasn't designed for streaming like some releases tend to be these days, yet it is still pulling in these numbers. People keep forgetting this. Pointing out that 30 is below Ari and Tay but it's not the drag y'all think it is.
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ddlz
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Post by ddlz on Nov 20, 2021 18:44:43 GMT -5
Both digital and CD sales are completely dead and I haven't seen any evidence of Adele being a strong vinyl seller. I predict 500-700k.
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nickd
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Post by nickd on Nov 20, 2021 18:53:31 GMT -5
Her physical sales will blow the physical numbers of those records out of the water. I donβt think itβs an apt comparison. For sure. We have to wait a couple days for the updated HDD prediction. But take into consideration the vinyl record is like... 110k or whatever RED TV just did. Let's say she does 2.5x, plus 250k from streaming. That's 550k ish from the two most popular components of the year. She would need just as much from CDs and downloads... CDs are gonna be healthy, but the download market is dead as f**k (see EOM's debuting below 100k on sales). Anything could happen. I do hope she crosses 1m+ easily because it's probably gonna be the last time until some sort of recalibration of the formula happens. Yeah, I don't think 1m+ is guaranteed. I'm predicting 1.0-1.2m, but I could see anything from 700k to 1.5m.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Nov 20, 2021 21:09:28 GMT -5
I hope 25 and 21 get pushed back into the top 10 as well that would be so iconic to have 3 album in the top ten. I'm sure it's been done before (Prince I believe) and more I'm sure but it would be really cool. If 21 goes back to the Top 10, it would break a tie with Bruce Springsteen's Born To Run for 2nd most weeks in the Top 10. Both albums currently have 84 weeks in the Top 10. A couple things here 'Born To Run'\and 'Born In The USA' both great albums - one had 84 weeks and the other didn't An Asterish to this category Michael Jackson took Thriller to the top 10 for 78 weeks in its initial chart run In subsequent re-issues, it charted in the top 10 for an additional 13 weeks on the Comprehensive chart - the modern day version of 'Top Album Sales' and came during the time when catalog albums were not eligible for the Billboard 290
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Nov 21, 2021 2:07:13 GMT -5
I am wondering if 1m is questionable as there was no projections Saturday. I donβt see any reason as to THIS much quietness if the numbers are humongous as expectations.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Nov 21, 2021 2:32:42 GMT -5
maybe they're too busy doing last minute thanksgiving shopping
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Nov 21, 2021 7:19:26 GMT -5
do we not have first day numbers yet? Despite all the limitations, I feel like Adele's first day would probably be enough to at least be the year's top physical seller already.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Nov 21, 2021 10:11:25 GMT -5
I would think Billboard would eventually write an article when 30 has officially surpassed Certified Lover Boy as the biggest album of the year. Maybe HITS will write one before that.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 21, 2021 11:47:40 GMT -5
Through Week 45 of 2021:
Biggest Debut: 613,000, Certified Lover Boy - Drake
Best Selling SPS Album: 2,904,000, Dangerous - The Double Album - Morgan Wallen
Best Selling Album Sales: 451,000, Evermore - Taylor Swift
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Nov 21, 2021 11:48:53 GMT -5
So about those vinyls...
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Nov 21, 2021 12:02:03 GMT -5
My Local record store got them in on Friday and Iβve checked back on their site a few times to see how theyβre selling. On Thursday night, when added to their system (which allowed online purchases), I saw 48. (Not sure if it started at 50 or not). Right now, they lost having 38 left. I bought one (and my bf did too). (As an aside, they had 8? CDs and are down to two).
I did check another music store in the mall while I was out and they had some 30 vinyl but were out of the CDs. (I suspect they may have had the target exclusive for Canada, though Iβm not sure.)
I think the huge vinyl order was probably a bit of a risk but one they thought was worth taking but I also wonder whether the proportion of potential sales on CD was underestimated. Vinyl buyers probably buy as much as or more because theyβre collectors as well as listeners, whereas cd buyers just want the music to have readily available who havenβt moved on to streaming (and at this point, might not). People love Adele but she doesnβt strike me as someone people would buy collectors items of.
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Post by ontopofthis on Nov 21, 2021 12:15:00 GMT -5
Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy My point is that he's literally the biggest streaming thing and yet he can not reach 1 million. The formula as it is right now makes it hard to crack that mark without a huge pure sales component and that hasn't happened since reputation. And that was actually due to sales only... the last time an album managed to move enough streams and sales to combine to a milli was VIEWS. Adele and Taylor did it with a few albums but they held them from streaming initially to increase sales. His fanbase ain't gonna buy CDs so he's wise to not put too much focus into that. If they are buying his shoes, shirts and whatever else he puts out with Nike for hundreds of dollars, they are going to buy some collector vinyl's. Do not be obtuse
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Post by ontopofthis on Nov 21, 2021 12:21:53 GMT -5
Drake doesn't put out vinyls or CDs, not even sure we can include him in a sales collapse agenda when he doesn't even try to get people to spend money that's not on a streaming service 613k without a single vinyl or CD was crazy Why doesn't Drake put out CDs/Vinyls? He likely would've topped 1m first week combined with Scorpion, and still done over 100k in sales first week with CLB which is outstanding anyway you slice it You have to have your project ready to manufacture months in advanced to have it be prepared to ship when they put the project up on streaming services. He works on his projects until the week they go up, so there is no way that he can have them ready to go then. He probably is just going to release them now. With the manufacturing issues and everything else, there is no telling when they are going to be ready to manufacture physicals
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 21, 2021 13:32:25 GMT -5
I mean that doesn't really say much? That's a tweet from on the day the album was released from one store? They might sell half by the end of the tracking week and maybe all sold within a few weeks? I assume with so many printed, it may help its sales in the long term as people may pick them up over the coming weeks in the run up to Christmas.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 21, 2021 14:09:19 GMT -5
It just needs to sell about half of the 250k vinyls ordered to take that record. But I don't think prior to today anyone would have expected 30 to not break it by a much bigger margin.
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spiritboy
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Post by spiritboy on Nov 21, 2021 14:13:28 GMT -5
It looks like so many people are rooting for Adele to fail.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Nov 21, 2021 14:15:19 GMT -5
Acknowledging that demand seems lower than expected =/= rooting for her to fail.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Nov 21, 2021 14:22:18 GMT -5
It looks like so many people are rooting for Adele to fail. It has been so weird to see so many people pitting Adele and Taylor against each other. The stans are crazy. I don't think all of it is rooting for her to fail though - it's more so just trying to add a bit of realism. Even though I've been in the 2-3 mil club and my predictions have been quite high, that's just me being hopeful that she can do what she does best and outperform predictions. I can be realistic and my honest expectations are around 1.2-1.5mil SPS. But Adele's album releases are such events that I like to enjoy myself and live in the moment and "go big or go home" with my predictions lol. Which is partly why I don't see why a small groups of rabid Taylor stans want to ruin that for Adele fans when Taylor's album releases are events as well. I mean Taylor has had 4 big eventful album releases in the last couple years that they've enjoyed with more to come. Can't they just let the Adele fans enjoy themselves with her first album release in 6 years! That's not aimed at people on this forum btw, it's mainly social media/twitter I see these stupid Adele vs Taylor fights.
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