Billboard Hot 100: 04/14/12

[SPRΞΞ]

Is streaming ageist? lol

[allow that]

Apr 4, 2012 11:55:45 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Is streaming ageist? lol

No, it's just reductive.

[hitseeker.]

Holy crap, with 521k downloads, Bieber still didn't debut at #1! :O fun. is definitely unstoppable right now. Up until this point, I never realized how much streaming now mattered, even though the rules changed.

I agree that we may see more 10+ week #1's in the future. I don't know how I feel about that exactly: on the one hand I like the idea of having songs that dominate the chart for an extended period of time, but on the other hand, that makes the chart look a bit boring and stale after too many weeks. *remembers BEP's BBP & IGF domination and shudders*

[RockaByeBaby]

Hahahahaha.

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2012 11:54:40 GMT -5 jasontoralba said:

60:20:20 doesn't explain 521k downloads landing at #2.

That's because that isn't the ratio. I was saying that that would be a better more accurate ratio in my own opinion.

[gracelessheart]

Wow. Certainly the most interesting Hot 100 finish in a while.

I will say this. I think streaming through a paid service by people who WANT to listen to a song should probably outweigh being forced to listen to the same songs radio crams down our throats for months. So I can see streams being an important part of formula now. It's a service people pay for and it shows what a lot of people actually want to hear.

[jebsib]

Radio is not dying. In fact the most recent and more accurate Arbitron people-meters have shown radio cums much bigger than previously thought.

[bybkt]

Apr 4, 2012 12:14:30 GMT -5 gracelessheart said:

Wow. Certainly the most interesting Hot 100 finish in a while.

I will say this. I think streaming through a paid service by people who WANT to listen to a song should probably outweigh being forced to listen to the same songs radio crams down our throats for months. So I can see streams being an important part of formula now. It's a service people pay for and it shows what a lot of people actually want to hear.

That's out of question but the question is if 1 million of streamings should be equivalent to 100k downloads I absolutely don't think so...

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Apr 4, 2012 12:17:01 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Radio is not dying. In fact the most recent and more accurate Arbitron people-meters have shown radio cums much bigger than previously thought.

Yeah, I don't know where people are getting that radio is dying.

[badrobot]

Well at least now we probably have a good sense of how the points breakdown.

It looks like the totals are:

Sales / 10
Streams / 100
Airplay Impressions / 10,000

Seems reasonable, right?

So a song that has 100,000 sales, 80m audience impressions, and 500,000 streams (roughly about what would get you at #10 on each chart) would get:

10,000 + 8,000 + 5,000 = 23,000 points

With a breakdown of about 43% sales, 35% airplay, 22% streaming. Seems like a reasonable formula to me!

[leoapp]

Damn, Boyfriend >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that overrated WAY

I'm afraid with this new rule (streaming points), we will see less #1 debuts, and less variety on Hot 100, singles spending 10 weeks at #1 won't be rare anymore, we're back to mid 2000s again. Boring...

[Oprah]

I think it's good Billboard's weighing streaming more since it is a pretty big medium for a lot of people. If anything this is more accurate since it gives us a better picture of what people are listening to.

[josh]

I think this has definitely been a learning week. Labels definitely will be releasing songs to streaming when they put them up on iTunes.

This could potentially lessen #1 debuts, but songs with high-profile releases could have huge streaming debuts. We'll just have to see where Boyfriend ends up on the streaming chart next week.

[allow that]

Apr 4, 2012 12:57:44 GMT -5 josh said:

I think this has definitely been a learning week. Labels definitely will be releasing songs to streaming when they put them up on iTunes.

This could potentially lessen #1 debuts, but songs with high-profile releases could have huge streaming debuts. We'll just have to see where Boyfriend ends up on the streaming chart next week.

As far as #1 debuts go, the key word is LESSON not LESSEN!

They'll still happen. Justin would have debuted at #1 this week if his label knew to make streaming available from the start, which moving forward labels will surely be wise to.

[jasontoralba]

Apr 4, 2012 12:37:43 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Well at least now we probably have a good sense of how the points breakdown.

It looks like the totals are:

Sales / 10
Streams / 100
Airplay Impressions / 10,000

Seems reasonable, right?

So a song that has 100,000 sales, 80m audience impressions, and 500,000 streams (roughly about what would get you at #10 on each chart) would get:

10,000 + 8,000 + 5,000 = 23,000 points

With a breakdown of about 43% sales, 35% airplay, 22% streaming. Seems like a reasonable formula to me!

WAY - 363k/104m/1.18m = 36300(43%) + 10400(35%) + 11800(22%) = 15609 + 3640 + 2596 = 21845
Bieber's Boyfriend - 521k/40m/0 = 52100(43%) + 4000(35%) + 0 = 22403 + 1400 = 23803

Bieber is still the winner!!! :))

[Deleted]

People are crying in BieberNation today

[Enigma.]

It's not Bieber's, Fun's or Billboard's fault that WAY is so strong on every field that counts at the moment.

[Deleted]

Bieber's team must be kicking themselves for not putting his single up for streaming last week.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Apr 4, 2012 11:52:53 GMT -5 damazz09 said:

I think that the On Demand Weight is actually on point. One of the main problem I have with radio being counted as high as it is, is that the public really don't have that much of a say of what is popular. Sure a radio station will only play what the public like but when it comes to the top 10, they don't really care how the public ranks those songs unless it's a juggernaut size hit.

When it comes to Sales vs. On Demand Songs, I prefer ODS because that represents more of the American population. By having a price on a song scares away some consumers that if based on old chart formula, they would not have been represented because they did not want to pay. But now ODS has opened the door to people to freely listen to songs without a price and without having radio tell them what is popular. Ultimately ODS does reflect more than sales what people want to listen to . If I had to predict the American population and how they listen to their music I would say 50% listen to radio 30% listen to ODS and 20% actually buy the product. I think Billboard reflects those percentages.

To add to your point about streaming vs. sales, I think sales has the potentially to be incredibly misleading as well. If I buy a song the first day it comes out, I'm not going to buy it again. Therefore, I've said my piece and it's done. If I stream a song the first day it comes out, and I like it. I'll stream it again. Multiple times over the course of the coming days, weeks and maybe months.
A song's popularity is based on more than how well it sells but how well it stays in the mindset of the public.

I'll give a mostly unrealistic but still technically possible hypothetical situation here. If a song comes out and sells 5 million copies in its first day, it'll be #1 that week no doubt. But no one else buys it after that because everyone that would have gotten it already did. The song goes from #1 to #80 because the only thing keeping it afloat is its growing radio airplay. But everyone that bought the song LOVES it and listens to it daily. Is the song actually the 80th most popular song that week? Not at all.
I realize that Billboard's goal is to provide insight on the most played and sold singles are rather than simply the most "popular" but if they want to move toward the more popular method, streaming is the way to go.

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2012 12:56:19 GMT -5 Oprah said:

I think it's good Billboard's weighing streaming more since it is a pretty big medium for a lot of people. If anything this is more accurate since it gives us a better picture of what people are listening to.

People are listening to Boyfriend just as much, just not on Spotify...

[badrobot]

Apr 4, 2012 13:06:34 GMT -5 jasontoralba said:

Apr 4, 2012 12:37:43 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Well at least now we probably have a good sense of how the points breakdown.

It looks like the totals are:

Sales / 10
Streams / 100
Airplay Impressions / 10,000

Seems reasonable, right?

So a song that has 100,000 sales, 80m audience impressions, and 500,000 streams (roughly about what would get you at #10 on each chart) would get:

10,000 + 8,000 + 5,000 = 23,000 points

With a breakdown of about 43% sales, 35% airplay, 22% streaming. Seems like a reasonable formula to me!

WAY - 363k/104m/1.18m = 36300(43%) + 10400(35%) + 11800(22%) = 15609 + 3640 + 2596 = 21845
Bieber's Boyfriend - 521k/40m/0 = 52100(43%) + 4000(35%) + 0 = 22403 + 1400 = 23803

Bieber is still the winner!!! :))

BB doesn't use percentages to calculate -- I was stating them to show how "on average" the breakdown might occur. BB divides each input by a certain number to get points. If my guess is correct, that would be:

fun: 363,000/10 + 104,000,000/10,000 + 1,180,000/100
Bieber: 521,000/10 + 40,000,000/10,000 + 0??/100

which would get you:

36,300 + 10,400 + 11,800 = 58,500
52,100 + 4,000 + 0 = 56,100

[badrobot]

Also, don't know how anyone can possibly say On Demand will REDUCE variety -- look at who it helped the most, artists like Gotye, Skrillex, and Florence + The Machine, who are hardly typical mainstream artists. On Demand has greatly improved the variety on the chart.

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2012 13:29:08 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Also, don't know how anyone can possibly say On Demand will REDUCE variety -- look at who it helped the most, artists like Gotye, Skrillex, and Florence + The Machine, who are hardly typical mainstream artists. On Demand has greatly improved the variety on the chart.

Exactly. If anything, On Demand will help smaller, more independent, and lesser known non mainstream artists that radio and Clear Channel won't touch (although they might after they see how popular they really are).

Anything that decreases Clear Channel's monopolization of radio airplay, and therefore, the charts, is a good thing as far as I'm concerned.

[jasontoralba]

Apr 4, 2012 13:27:38 GMT -5 badrobot said:

BB doesn't use percentages to calculate -- I was stating them to show how "on average" the breakdown might occur. BB divides each input by a certain number to get points. If my guess is correct, that would be:

fun: 363,000/10 + 104,000,000/10,000 + 1,180,000/100
Bieber: 521,000/10 + 40,000,000/10,000 + 0??/100

which would get you:

36,300 + 10,400 + 11,800 = 58,500
52,100 + 4,000 + 0 = 56,100

alright, i get your point. :)

[Oprah]

Apr 4, 2012 13:26:56 GMT -5 Codex said:

Apr 4, 2012 12:56:19 GMT -5 Oprah said:

I think it's good Billboard's weighing streaming more since it is a pretty big medium for a lot of people. If anything this is more accurate since it gives us a better picture of what people are listening to.

People are listening to Boyfriend just as much, just not on Spotify...

Possibly, but there's not way to know since it isn't available yet. I can see why people are pissed in this particular instance but in general the change is good. This is, if anything, a better reflection of popularity than sales are given first week numbers are stan based. How many times in the last couple of years has a song debuted at #1, hovered at the low end of the top 10 for a few more weeks, and then disappeared?

[Deleted]

Apr 4, 2012 13:49:50 GMT -5 Oprah said:

Apr 4, 2012 13:26:56 GMT -5 Codex said:

People are listening to Boyfriend just as much, just not on Spotify...

Possibly, but there's not way to know since it isn't available yet. I can see why people are pissed in this particular instance but in general the change is good. This is, if anything, a better reflection of popularity than sales are given first week numbers are stan based. How many times in the last couple of years has a song debuted at #1, hovered at the low end of the top 10 for a few more weeks, and then disappeared?

There's no way to know, but I think it would be pretty high looking at its Youtube views. It might not be counted, but it should at least be a good place to get predictions from. The real question is how high this will debut on On Demand Streaming now that it's on Spotify.

A few times, but they probably would have debuted at #1 anyway in some cases. HIAM, the most front loaded, had around ~460 points while the #2 song had ~350. Fun is just too big right now.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

If there's one thing I may hate more than stan wars, it's the bickering over what should count in the methodology of the Hot 100 and in what proportion.

[lugus15]

So its 1 million streaming = 100,000,000 AI? (That's a bit too much IMO).

Also, before I say anything, I need to know about this streaming thing:

1. People pay $ per song streamed or it is a one time monthly payment and one can stream what one's want unlimited?

2. For example WAY had 1.18 million in streaming this week: that is 1.18 million people in the US streamed that song (on the channels counted by Nielsen) a number of times or that song was streamed 1.18 times by a smaller number of people??

Cuz, if it is the latter, I see many more #1 debuts on the horizon. You see, artists that have devoted fan (stan) bases like GaGa, Bieber, Spears, Eminen, Swift (and to a lesser extent Perry, Kesha, Minaj, etc.) can have a limited number of those stans ¨stream¨ their latest single like crazy and get huge stream numbers, allowing for them to get #1 more easily.

[Deleted]

Boo! Second biggest digital opening and one of the best radio starts and not #1? :( not sire if I like this streaming being worth so much, unless of course my faves do well lol! Poor biebz!

[jgizzle89]

Not going to lie...this is definitely not a good look for the new rules. Streaming should NOT count for that much. Especially if it doesn't include youtube...