Billboard Hot 100: 08/04/12

[cesarams]

The last 5 threads:

7/28/12, 7/21/12, 7/14/12, 7/7/12, 6/30/12

Thursday's Update:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 191.564 (- 1.078)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 176.733 (- 1.249)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 164.127 (- 2.098)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 159.500 (- 0.169)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 135.312 (+ 2.739)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 121.927 (+ 3.104) [/b]
7. USHER - Scream: 113.115 (+ 0.538)
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 88.566 (- 1.679)
9. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 85.266 (- 0.836)
10. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 83.504 (- 1.323)
11. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 82.022 (+ 0.358)
12. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 77.457 (- 1.142)
13. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 77.033 (+ 1.303)
14. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 73.133 (- 1.113)
15. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 67.764 (+ 0.556)
16. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 66.549 (- 0.453)
17. ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 61.788 (- 1.081)
18. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 61.464 (+ 0.189)
19. DIERKS BENTLEY - 5-1-5-0: 60.793 (+ 0.602) ▲
20. TRAIN - Drive By: 60.426 (- 0.687) ▼

OTHERS:

KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 59.937 (+ 0.328)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 54.478 (+ 1.875)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 50.193 (+ 0.863)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 50.110 (+ 0.287)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 45.331 (+ 0.336)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 44.351 (+ 2.078)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 37.378 (+ 0.752)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 34.093 (+ 0.097)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 32.654 (+ 0.720)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 32.467 (+ 0.988)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 24.127 (+ 0.080)
FUN. - Some Nights: 22.703 (+ 0.717)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 22.549 (- 0.008)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 21.236 (+ 0.148)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 17.357 (+ 1.084)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 11.770 (+ 1.576)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 11.321 (+ 3.085)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 10.296 (+ 1.941)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 10.137 (+ 0.805)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 6.426 (+ 0.679)
KILLERS - Runaways: 5.584 (+ 0.123)
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.874 (+ 0.106)

[nivekwriter1]

Settle Down and Lights are rising fast. :)

[suth]

"Lights" is kind of the little engine that could.

"Wide Awake" should be taking over at #1 by next week at the latest. After three very dominant songs, there doesn't appear to be any clear winner at the moment, so Katy's reliable airplay push should be able to carry her.

BTW, I saw there's a book coming out called "Climbing the Charts: What Radio Airplay Tells Us about the Diffusion of Innovation." It may be interesting, given all the complaints about how slow radio is to pick up on or let go of songs. There was already a bit of a discussion on it in "The Power of Habit," where they talked about what a hard time "Hey Ya" had getting played at first.

[nivekwriter1]

The airplay updates of Cesarams and my prediction both say that there is is no clear winner
between 'Call Me Maybe' and 'Wide Awake'. Carly now has a lead, but Katy is climbing
very fast. I think 'Wide Awake' will be #1 by the end of the week.

[nivekwriter1]

Predictions for hot 100 (08/04/2012) until now...
(Thursday update)

Colors (In comparison with yesterday):
+ 0.5: bold
+ 1.0: green
+ 1.5: red
+ 2.0 >: purple

1. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (152,57)
2. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (140,63)
3. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (151,53)[/b]
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know (119,42)
5. Ellie Goulding - Lights (111,97)
6. Rihanna - Where Have You Been (111,66)
7. Flo Rida - Whistle (108,15)
8. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (106,14)[/b][/color]
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (92,78)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (80,1)
11. Usher - Scream (68,85)
12. Nicki Minaj - Starships (68,6)
13. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (68,03)
14. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (67,01)
15. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (63,26)
16. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - Mercy (62,31)
17. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (62,13)
18. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (61)
19. Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones (59,32)
20. Fun. - Some Nights (58,7)

High rises and debuts outside the top 20 (until now)

29. No Doubt - Settle Down (45,9)
33. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (33,29)
36. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me (24,77)

Under top 50:

Green Day - Oh Love (5,37)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (4,05)

[NeRD]

NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 6.426 (+ 0.679)

Its coming. :'(

[dlostfan]

This week, we could have a very interesting battle for the #1. WA should close the Airplay gap (BDS) to 10-15M. It should significantly close the streaming gap as well. So if WA can sell 25-30k more then it can be #1.

If not this week, then WA will have a great opportunity next week, but after that Lights might start blocking it.

[damita34]

what about Keyshia Cole? (:

[popstop]

So, between Carly, Gotye and Kimbra, that's 14 weeks so far that no American has been at #1. There are three four similar 14 week strings that I know of:

• In 1964, The Beatles had 14 consecutive weeks at #1 on their own between their hits.
  
• In 1978, between Andy Gibb and his brothers, they also managed to reach 14 straight weeks at #1.
  
• The summer of 1985 has the most impressive streak because it required 8 different songs by 7 different non-American artists to reach 14 weeks.
  
• In 1996, Macarena was #1 for 14 weeks.
  

The only longer streak of which I'm aware is when Elton John's CITW had a 14 week streak on it's own, and was then toppled by Savage Garden for 2 weeks.

I don't know if there are any other comparable streaks. We came close earlier this year, but LMFAO's SAIKI interrupted Rihanna's chart run.

I don't think Ellie has a good chance of beating Katy to #1 this week (if Ellie even ever gets to #1), but it would be interesting if it could to make that streak longer. Or Carly could hold on for more weeks.

[icefire9]

^
If Ellie were to beat Katy to the top spot, it would also extend a streak of #1 songs being the artist's first charting song.

[Deleted]

Jul 19, 2012 16:48:47 GMT -5 popstop said:

So, between Carly, Gotye and Kimbra, that's 14 weeks so far that no American has been at #1. There are three four similar 14 week strings that I know of:

• In 1964, The Beatles had 14 consecutive weeks at #1 on their own between their hits.
  
• In 1978, between Andy Gibb and his brothers, they also managed to reach 14 straight weeks at #1.
  
• The summer of 1985 has the most impressive streak because it required 8 different songs by 7 different non-American artists to reach 14 weeks.
  
• In 1996, Macarena was #1 for 14 weeks.
  

The only longer streak of which I'm aware is when Elton John's CITW had a 14 week streak on it's own, and was then toppled by Savage Garden for 2 weeks.

I don't know if there are any other comparable streaks. We came close earlier this year, but LMFAO's SAIKI interrupted Rihanna's chart run.

I don't think Ellie has a good chance of beating Katy to #1 this week (if Ellie even ever gets to #1), but it would be interesting if it could to make that streak longer. Or Carly could hold on for more weeks.

Edit: I forgot about Los Del Rio, or more likely, I have tried to permanently remove that song from my memory.

If you go by writing credits, the BeeGees actually had 15 consecutive weeks in 1978, because they also wrote Yvonne Elliman's hit "If I Can't Have You," which succeeded their hits and Andy's at #1 on the Hot 100.

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

Do we Know roughly How many copies Music videos sell on itunes and other retailers in a week.

Isn't it time for these to be added to the Hot100 formulation

[josh]

I bet not very many at all.

[Deleted]

In the 90s I remember some artists releasing video singles to stores. Does anyone know if those counted toward the Hot 100 or just the music videos chart?

[Deleted]

Hot 100 has always been about the audio experience

[Verisimilitude]

Jul 19, 2012 19:22:56 GMT -5 @jazzysoul47 said:

In the 90s I remember some artists releasing video singles to stores. Does anyone know if those counted toward the Hot 100 or just the music videos chart?

Yes, they did. Madonna released the very first video single with "Justify My Love" which is what propelled it to #1 in 1990.

I recall TLC releasing them for "Girl Talk" and "Hands Up" too as well as other Arista artists from that time.

[Deleted]

Source?

The 'Justify My Love" "single" was something you put into your VCR.

Interest in the video may have increased interest in the single in that way but Video sales have never been included in the chart formula - as videos are not now, they weren't then either.

[SPRΞΞ]

What does it matter where you put your format? VCR vs. DVD player

And yes, they should count. But I'm sure the actual number of sales is very minimal.

[Deleted]

Not saying they shouldn't count - just saying they never have before

[jebsib]

In the 80s, at the height of MTV and the music video explosion, there was this big debate in Billboard magazine whether to include video play in the Hot 100 matrix. It was decided not to, for two reasons: One, cable penetration was not universal, so millions of people didn't ever see the latest videos.

And, the argument back then was that people watch videos for the visual sensory experience (the story lines, fashions, images of the stars), and that takes away from measuring the actual MUSIC, or song popularity. Also, what if a hot song had an unwatchable or dull (one and done) video, or vice versa? It would skew that song's points. Such were the discussions...

[josh]

Jul 19, 2012 20:01:36 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

What does it matter where you put your format? VCR vs. DVD player

And yes, they should count. But I'm sure the actual number of sales is very minimal.

I think he was saying rather than being released as a conventional audio-only single, it was a "video single" instead. VHS/DVD doesn't matter.

[SPRΞΞ]

well i think it's only a matter of time before they DO count. But even then their influence will be minimal. Who buys videos these days? That's what Youtube is for.

[cesarams]

Friday's Update:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 190.439 (- 1.125)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 174.549 (- 2.184)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 163.065 (- 1.062)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 159.702 (+ 0.202)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 137.937 (+ 2.625)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 125.279 (+ 3.352)
7. USHER - Scream: 114.230 (+ 1.115) [/b]
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 87.065 (- 1.501)
9. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 84.321 (- 0.945)
10. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 82.161 (+ 0.139) ▲
11. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 82.124 (- 1.380) ▼
12. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 77.592 (+ 0.559) ▲
13. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 76.230 (- 1.227) ▼
14. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 72.323 (- 0.810)
15. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 67.595 (- 0.169)
16. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 65.673 (- 0.876)
17. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 62.873 (+ 1.409) ▲
18. DIERKS BENTLEY - 5-1-5-0: 61.781 (+ 0.988) ▲
19. KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 60.535 (+ 0.598) ▲
20. ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 60.374 (- 1.414) ▼

OTHERS:

TRAIN - Drive By: 60.154 (- 0.272)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 56.869 (+ 2.391)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 50.504 (+ 0.311)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 49.777 (- 0.333)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 46.534 (+ 2.183)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 45.265 (- 0.066)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 38.381 (+ 1.003)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 33.787 (+ 1.320)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 33.644 (- 0.449)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 32.967 (+ 0.313)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 24.616 (+ 0.489)
FUN. - Some Nights: 23.510 (+ 0.807)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 22.623 (+ 0.074)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 21.235 (- 0.001)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 18.599 (+ 1.242)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 14.385 (+ 3.064)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 13.404 (+ 1.634)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 12.263 (+ 1.967)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 10.881 (+ 0.744)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 7.564 (+ 1.138)
KILLERS - Runaways: 5.698 (+ 0.114)
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.818 (- 0.056)
CONOR MAYNARD - Vegas Girl: 1.017
KELLY ROWLAND - Ice f/Lil Wayne: 0.761

[Enigma.]

JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 18.599 (+ 1.242)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 14.385 (+ 3.064)

Happy days.

[Agent Yoncé]

No Doubt :o

[nivekwriter1]

Predictions for hot 100 (08/04/2012) until now...
(Friday update) (A LOT OF RISES!)

Colors (In comparison with yesterday):
+ 2.5: bold
+ 5.0: green
+ 7.5: red
+ 10.0 >: purple

1. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (309,22)
2. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (301,54)
3. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (293,06)
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody I Used To Know (246,71) ???[/b][/color]
5. Ellie Goulding - Lights (234,35)
6. Flo Rida - Whistle (232,58)
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been (229,74)
8. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (213,17)
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (190,27)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (171,21)
11. Usher - Scream (162,37)
12. Nicki Minaj - Starships (140,71)
13. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (140,3)
14. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (136,35)
15. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (136,01)
16. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (128,33)
17. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - Mercy (128,18)
18. Fun. - Some Nights (127,92)
19. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (127,44)
20. Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones (121,11)

High rises and debuts outside the top 20:

22. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time (115,93)
27. Havana Brown ft. Pitbull - We Run The Night (98,02)
29. No Doubt - Settle Down (93,2)
34. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (70,32)
38. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me (53,98)

Bottom 50:

Matchbox Twenty - She's So Mean (46,65)
Carrie Underwood - Blown Away (35,5)
Green Day - Oh Love (11,8)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (8,72)

[Au$tin]

Jul 20, 2012 7:08:24 GMT -5 cesarams said:

5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 137.937 (+ 2.625)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 125.279 (+ 3.352)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 56.869 (+ 2.391)

[/b][/color]
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 46.534 (+ 2.183)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 38.381 (+ 1.003)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 33.787 (+ 1.320)
FUN. - Some Nights: 23.510 (+ 0.807)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 18.599 (+ 1.242)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 14.385 (+ 3.064)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 10.881 (+ 0.744)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 7.564 (+ 1.138)
[/quote]

Such fantastic updates for many of my favorites today!

[SPRΞΞ]

Jul 20, 2012 10:04:41 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Predictions for hot 100 (08/04/2012) until now...
(Friday update) (A LOT OF RISES!)

Colors (In comparison with yesterday):
+ 2.5: bold
+ 5.0: green
+ 7.5: red
+ 10.0 >: purple

1. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (309,22)
2. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (301,54)
3. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (293,06)
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody I Used To Know (246,71) ???

[/b][/color]
5. Ellie Goulding - Lights (234,35)
6. Flo Rida - Whistle (232,58)
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been (229,74)
8. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (213,17)
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (190,27)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (171,21)
11. Usher - Scream (162,37)
12. Nicki Minaj - Starships (140,71)
13. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (140,3)
14. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (136,35)
15. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (136,01)
16. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (128,33)
17. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - Mercy (128,18)
18. Fun. - Some Nights (127,92)
19. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (127,44)
20. Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones (121,11)

High rises and debuts outside the top 20:

22. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time (115,93)
27. Havana Brown ft. Pitbull - We Run The Night (98,02)
29. No Doubt - Settle Down (93,2)
34. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (70,32)
38. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me (53,98)

Bottom 50:

Matchbox Twenty - She's So Mean (46,65)
Carrie Underwood - Blown Away (35,5)
Green Day - Oh Love (11,8)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (8,72)[/quote]

i really don't understand any of this.

[josh]

Jul 20, 2012 13:30:49 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

i really don't understand any of this.

Me neither. I think what he does is look at the daily radio gains and the approximately daily pop bar changes and base things on those.

[nivekwriter1]

Jul 20, 2012 13:30:49 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Jul 20, 2012 10:04:41 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Predictions for hot 100 (08/04/2012) until now...
(Friday update) (A LOT OF RISES!)

Colors (In comparison with yesterday):
+ 2.5: bold
+ 5.0: green
+ 7.5: red
+ 10.0 >: purple

1. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (309,22)
2. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (301,54)
3. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (293,06)
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody I Used To Know (246,71) ???

[/b][/color]
5. Ellie Goulding - Lights (234,35)
6. Flo Rida - Whistle (232,58)
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been (229,74)
8. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (213,17)
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (190,27)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (171,21)
11. Usher - Scream (162,37)
12. Nicki Minaj - Starships (140,71)
13. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (140,3)
14. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (136,35)
15. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (136,01)
16. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (128,33)
17. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - Mercy (128,18)
18. Fun. - Some Nights (127,92)
19. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (127,44)
20. Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones (121,11)

High rises and debuts outside the top 20:

22. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time (115,93)
27. Havana Brown ft. Pitbull - We Run The Night (98,02)
29. No Doubt - Settle Down (93,2)
34. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (70,32)
38. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me (53,98)

Bottom 50:

Matchbox Twenty - She's So Mean (46,65)
Carrie Underwood - Blown Away (35,5)
Green Day - Oh Love (11,8)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (8,72)[/quote]

i really don't understand any of this.[/quote] josh is right. I use daily airplay data and the pop bars to make a prediction for the hot 100. last week i had almost the complete top 10 right, so maybe it is a good predictor. I will put this explaination also in the update of tomorrow.