Billboard Hot 100: 08/25/2012

[Deleted]

Pitbull ft. Shakira - Get It Started: 6.936 (- 0.198)

This is struggling so bad. It's ok, but I want it to smash for Shakira's sake :( Amazing about Taylor! Have the song on repeat ;)

[nivekwriter1]

he title of Taylor Swift's new single clearly isn't about her relationship with radio or her adoring buying public.

"We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," the first single from Swift's fourth studio album "Red," due Oct. 22, appears headed for the upper reaches of next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart, thanks to its immediate acceptance across multiple radio formats and a projected record first-week digital sales total.

Taylor Swift Announces 'Red' Album, New Single

After being serviced to radio late yesterday (Aug. 13) jointly by Big Machine and Universal Republic Records, "Never" has accrued approximately 30 million in all-format radio audience in less than 24 hours, according to Nielsen BDS. With that audience total, "Never" is already among the last seven days' 40 most-played titles across all formats.

Also commercially released to iTunes and Google Play late yesterday, and to other digital retailers today (14), "Never" has the retail record books in its sights. Industry sources suggest that the song may sell between 450,000 to 500,000 downloads by the end of the Nielsen SoundScan tracking week on Sunday (19). That large a sum could earn "Never" the biggest sales debut for a digital song by a woman, as well as a career-high sales week for the country/pop superstar.

(While pop and country versions have been released to appropriate radio formats, only the pop edit of "Never" is currently available digitally for consumers.)

If it surpasses 448,000, "Never" will earn the largest debut for a digital song by a female artist. Lady Gaga's "Born This Way" holds the mark among women, having launched at No. 1 on Billboard's Digital Songs chart dated Feb. 26, 2011. (Impressively, "Born" racked 448,000 after only three days on sale, having bowed Friday, Feb. 11, 2011. (The SoundScan tracking week ends on Sunday each week). Swift's "Never" will start with a little more than six days' worth of sales.

Source: Billboard

[herb]

Aug 15, 2012 10:31:17 GMT -5 dlostfan said:

Sales+Airplay points.

Wide Awake: 211
Whistle: 205
Lights: 191
CMM: 190

Difference of 1 points can be countered by 18k difference in streaming.

So if Whistle has 110k more streaming than WA, it wins....

I think every song has a chance depending on streaming.

Just curious. How do you calculate this? I thought that the airplay # that Billboard used is notable lower than this. Did you apply any factor on that?

[HolidayGuy]

BDS airplay is notably lower than Mediabase. Unless the info uses last week's BDs numbers and estimaties for this week.

[Deleted]

It's calculated with Mediabase * 0.75, from what I can tell, which is the approximate value for BDS numbers.

[badrobot]

If i guess streaming as 900k for Ellie and Carly, 800k for Flo, and 600k for Katy, I get Flo Rida ahead and then a dead heat for the other three for #2.

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2012 8:17:56 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

WOW! Taylor just might debut in the top 100 with that. Here's hoping at #100.

I was telling someone that it would be cool if she debuted anywhere between 98-100 and then broke Kelly's record. My friend thinks that Taylor's airplay will be too huge, though and if she debuts it will end up being in the 80's. How many points does a song usually have to have to appear in the bottom range of the hot 100?

I'm almost afraid to see what her eighth day drop will look like. I know it's not an indication of anything but still, those big drops are just so ugly looking.

[Deleted]

I wouldn't be surprised if she debuted in the high 70's, with how much airplay counts for now.

[Deleted]

I feel Taylor will debut very easily above the #97-100 range.

[I Wish]

Aug 15, 2012 10:54:01 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

Other airplay updates
(08/15/2012) 1 day airplay update

Josh Turner - Time Is Love: 52.554 (+ 0.734)
Trey Songz ft. T.I. - 2 Reasons: 39.335 (+ 0.434)
Wale ft. Rick Ross - Bag Of Money: 37.853 (+ 0.709)
Alex Clare - Too Close: 37.445 (+ 0.787)
Meek Mill ft. Drake & Jeremih - Amen: 35.543 (+ 0.142)
Miguel - Adorn: 23.397 (+ 0.729)
Lady Antebellum: Wanted You More: 18.272 (+ 0.272)
Keyshia Cole - Enough Of Love: 18.595 (+ 0.319)
David Guetta ft. Lil Wayne & Chris Brown - I Can Only Imagine: 15.968 (+ 0.880)
Ne-Yo - Let Me Love You: 15.335 (+ 1.171)
Ed Sheeran - The A Team: 12.650 (+ 0.051)
Afrojack ft. Shermanology: Can't Stop Me: 8.380 (- 0.141)
Pitbull ft. Shakira - Get It Started: 6.936 (- 0.198)
Mumford & Sons - I Will Wait: 8.181 (+ 0.202)
Anita Baker - Lately: 7.736 (+ 1.049)
Hello (Karmin song): 3.633 (+ 0.348)

You can ask me for other airplay updates, that aren't on the normal daily airplay update.

Can you please post Bridgit Mendler's update with Ready or Not?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Aug 15, 2012 11:31:25 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I feel Taylor will debut very easily above the #97-100 range.

It's completely ridiculous that airplay and sales weeks done have the same week. It's not an accurate consistent way of measurement.

[HolidayGuy]

^Been that way, like, for two decades (since BDS and SoundScan debuted)- why would it change now?

But, I will try to find out the exact reason. :) (which may be related to what Rodze said below)

[Rodze]

Because technology.

[cesarams]

Predictions:
1- Whistle
2- Call Me Maybe
3- Lights
4- Wide Awake
5- Payphone
6- Where Have You Been
7- Somebody That I Used To Know
8- Titanium
9- Some Nights
10- Home

[brucelover]

Aug 15, 2012 9:44:41 GMT -5 josh said:

Lol this does not seem Rhythmic at all... But yeah, Taylor has 2 things going over BTW; Country and the bigger numbers. So a little hard to compare, but oh well haha. We can try comparing the BDS numbers to see how those go.

I'm more curious about the rest of the week how she will do. Will she get 5 mil updates, 10, 15? Or less than 5? I think that's going to be more interesting/telling of the song.

It's the most rhythmic-friendly single of her career...that sparse guitar backdrop could pass as an early noughties R&B backing track. And it reminds me of JoJo circa 2005 with songs like "Too Little Too Late" which were R&B-leaning pop.

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2012 11:39:24 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Aug 15, 2012 11:31:25 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

I feel Taylor will debut very easily above the #97-100 range.

It's completely ridiculous that airplay and sales weeks done have the same week. It's not an accurate consistent way of measurement.

Because if we changed either of the tracking periods there would be either a gap or an overlap between two charts when the shift occurred.

[SPRΞΞ]

Yea I agree with Adonis. I think the entire week (airplay, sales, and streaming) should run from Monday-Sunday with a new Hot 100 every Monday morning.

[popstop]

^ I would say that's a pretty solid top ten, though a bit disappointed that it looks like Ellie will likely have to settle for a #2 peak. So Flo looks to get hie 3rd #1, right? Unlike Katy, Adele, Rihanna, etc, I can't think of any male artists in the last five years who've gotten more than three #1s in that period- maybe Bruno Mars? Or Eminem?

[areyoureadytojump]

With Taylor Swift debuting today and maybe Mariah, can someone help me update Taylor's Hot 100 appearances? Is she at 44 or 45? Thanks.

Most Hits by Female Artists on the Hot 100:

73, Aretha Franklin
56, Dionne Warwick
56, Madonna
53, Connie Francis
48, Brenda Lee
44, Mariah Carey
43, Taylor Swift
41, Barbra Streisand
40, Diana Ross6
39, Mary J. Blige
39, Whitney Houston
39, Janet Jackson

[josh]

Aug 15, 2012 11:59:54 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Yea I agree with Adonis. I think the entire week (airplay, sales, and streaming) should run from Monday-Sunday with a new Hot 100 every Monday morning.

You expect them to be able to get all the radio, sales, and streaming info, put it all together, total the points, and make the Hot 100 in less than 12 hours? That doesn't seem feasible to me.

[cesarams]

Aug 15, 2012 12:02:25 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

With Taylor Swift debuting today and maybe Mariah, can someone help me update Taylor's Hot 100 appearances? Is she at 44 or 45? Thanks.

Most Hits by Female Artists on the Hot 100:

73, Aretha Franklin
56, Dionne Warwick
56, Madonna
53, Connie Francis
48, Brenda Lee
44, Mariah Carey
43, Taylor Swift
41, Barbra Streisand
40, Diana Ross6
39, Mary J. Blige
39, Whitney Houston
39, Janet Jackson

If you count the featured entries, she already has 46. Never Ever will be the 47th. If you include all entries, Nicki Minaj already has 40 and Rihanna 38, so they could appear there too.

[Rodze]

Aug 15, 2012 12:08:32 GMT -5 cesarams said:

If you count the featured entries, she already has 46. Never Ever will be the 47th. If you include all entries, Nicki Minaj already has 40 and Rihanna 38, so they could appear there too.

:o

Is that right?

Edit: Wikipedia has 40, but Wikipedia...

[SPRΞΞ]

Aug 15, 2012 12:02:53 GMT -5 josh said:

Aug 15, 2012 11:59:54 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Yea I agree with Adonis. I think the entire week (airplay, sales, and streaming) should run from Monday-Sunday with a new Hot 100 every Monday morning.

You expect them to be able to get all the radio, sales, and streaming info, put it all together, total the points, and make the Hot 100 in less than 12 hours? That doesn't seem feasible to me.

Yes I do.

[mateuszr]

Aug 15, 2012 12:04:41 GMT -5 @2m said:

Taylor Swift won't debut today

But her song will be #1 on the next week.
I'm afraid Wide Awake is #1 now

[Au$tin]

Aug 15, 2012 12:32:35 GMT -5 Rodze said:

Aug 15, 2012 12:08:32 GMT -5 cesarams said:

If you count the featured entries, she already has 46. Never Ever will be the 47th. If you include all entries, Nicki Minaj already has 40 and Rihanna 38, so they could appear there too.

:o

Is that right?

Edit: Wikipedia has 40, but Wikipedia...

I think so: acharts.us/performer/nicki_minaj

The only two I saw on that list that weren't on the Hot 100 are "Girls Fall Like Dominoes" and "Whip It," making 40.

[Deleted]

Flo is #1

Flo Rida's 'Whistle' Works Way to Top of Hot 100
by Gary Trust, N.Y. | August 15, 2012 1:50 EDT

'Whistle' blows Carly Rae Jepsen's 'Call Me Maybe' out of the top spot after nine weeks, while fun., Mumford & Sons and Taylor Swift also make notable moves

Flo Rida's "Whistle" takes over atop the Billboard Hot 100, pushing Carly Rae Jepsen's "Call Me Maybe" off the summit after nine weeks. Ellie Goulding's "Lights," meanwhile, crowns the Radio Songs chart, fun. becomes the first rock band in more than five years to send its first two Hot 100 hits into the top 10 and Mumford & Sons and Taylor Swift each debut with lead singles from new albums.

"Whistle" sounds at No. 1 on the Hot 100 (rising from No. 3), fueled by a 2-1 rebound for a third week atop Digital Songs (217,000 downloads sold, down 2%, according to Nielsen SoundScan). The track remains bulleted at No. 12 on Radio Songs (66 million audience impressions, up 11%, according to Nielsen BDS) and No. 3 on On-Demand Songs (749,000 on-demand streams, up 9%, according to BDS).



"Whistle" marks Flo Rida's third Hot 100 No. 1, following 2008's 10-week introductory topper "Low" (featuring T-Pain) and 2009's six-week leader "Right Round" (which introduced an uncredited Ke$ha). With his latest Hot 100 coronation, the Sunshine State native (born Tramar Dillard) is the 12th solo rapper to rack at least three No. 1s, following Diddy, Ludacris (five each), 50 Cent, Eminem, Jay-Z, Nelly, Kanye West (four each), Ja Rule, Snoop Dogg ( now turned reggae act Snoop Lion), T.I. and T-Pain (three each).

With Flo Rida serving as the lead act on all three of his Hot 100 No. 1s, only 50 Cent, Diddy, Eminem and Nelly have reigned more times as leads (four each). (No rapper other than Flo Rida has led with three titles as a lead act).

Jepsen's "Maybe" ends the year's longest Hot 100 reign after nine weeks, slipping 1-3. The song holds at No. 2 on On-Demand Songs (783,000, down 5%), No. 3 on Digital Songs (156,000, down 6%) and No. 5 on Radio Songs (87 million, down 12%). Her follow-up single "Good Time" (with Owl City), meanwhile, rebounds from No. 14 to its No. 13 Hot 100 peak to-date. Both cuts are scheduled to appear on the Canadian pop singer's debut U.S. album "Kiss," due Sept. 18.

In between "Whistle" and "Maybe," Goulding's "Lights" holds at No. 2. The cut ascends 4-1 on Radio Songs (121 million, up 6%), making the British electro-pop singer/songwriter the first solo female to send a debut Radio Songs entry to No. 1 since Adele led the list on her first three tries beginning last year with "Rolling in the Deep," "Someone Like You" and "Set Fire to the Rain." "Lights" spends a third week at No. 1 on On-Demand Songs (829,000, down 6%) and slips 8-11 on Digital Songs (111,000, down 8%). As previously reported, the song also rises to No. 1 on the Pop Songs radio airplay chart.

Ellie Goulding on 'Lights' Explosion, Skrillex & Her New Album

Katy Perry's No. 2-peaking "Wide Awake" holds at No. 4 on the Hot 100 and No. 2 on Radio Songs (117 million, down less than 1%), while dipping 5-6 on Digital Songs (136,000, up 5%) and 8-9 on On-Demand Songs (529,000, down 11%). With its latest sales frame, the song passes 2 million in digital sales to-date, according to SoundScan. It also lifts 3-1 on Adult Pop Songs.

Maroon 5's "Payphone," featuring Wiz Khalifa, holds at No. 5 on the Hot 100, followed by Gotye's former eight-week No. 1 "Somebody That I Used to Know," featuring Kimbra (6-6), and David Guetta's "Titanium," featuring Sia (8-7).

Fun. scores the Hot 100's lone new top 10, as its former Alternative Songs No. 1 "Some Nights" shoots 11-8. With debut entry "We Are Young" (featuring Janelle Monae) having led the Hot 100 for six weeks earlier this year, the trio is the first rock act to send its first two Hot 100 entries to the top 10 since Daughtry ("It's Not Over" and "Home") in 2007. Prior to Daughtry, the Fray had also reached the Hot 100's top tier on its first two tries ("Over My Head (Cable Car)" and "How to Save a Life") in 2006.

Ask Billboard: Phillip Phillips Goes 'Home' To Hot 100's Top 10

After blasting 84-9 last week thanks to its usage in NBC's coverage of Olympics women's gymnastics, reigning "American Idol" champ Phillip Phillips' "Home" holds at No. 9 on the Hot 100 following the second and final week of the London Games. It drops 1-2 on Digital Songs (212,000, down 7%), although it passes 1 million in digital sales since its release (1,056,000), according to SoundScan. The folk-influenced track is bubbling under Radio Songs (13 million, up 90%) and On-Demand Songs (216,000, up 61%).

Rihanna rounds out the Hot 100's top 10, as "Where Have You Been" slides 7-10.

Outside the top bracket, highlights include Mumford & Sons soaring onto the chart at No. 23 with "I Will Wait," the first single from the band's sophomore album "Babel," due Sept. 25. Upon its bow, the song passes "The Cave" (No. 27 peak, 2011) to become the group's highest-charting Hot 100 hit.

Taylor Swift's New Single Blasts Onto Radio
Set For Record Sales Debut

Taylor Swift, meanwhile, enters the Hot 100 at No. 72 with "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," the first single from her fourth studio album, "Red," due Oct. 22. The song arrives after being released to retail and radio only late Monday (Aug. 13), with its first two days of airplay accounting for a No. 25 start on Radio Songs (40 million), the highest debut rank for a song by a female country act in the airplay tally's 21-year history. As previously reported, the song should make a dramatic play for the top of next week's Hot 100 after logging a full first week of sales and airplay. (Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post next Wednesday (22) on Billboard.com.)

Check Billboard.com tomorrow (Aug. 16), when all rankings, including the Hot 100 and On-Demand Songs in their entirety and Digital Songs and Radio Songs, will be refreshed, as they are each Thursday.

www.billboard.com/news#/news/flo-rida-s-whistle-works-way-to-top-of-hot-1007835752.story

[josh]

Katy #2 on radio, 4 million behind Ellie.

[Verisimilitude]

Ellie #1 on airplay. Truly unexpected. Too bad she's so low on sales though.

[Deleted]

Taylor debuts at 72 this week. So no #1 debut.

[Au$tin]

I knew it. It sucks that it wasn't Katy or Ellie, though. Taylor will take it next week and Flo will probably return for a few more weeks and then Taylor & fun. will probably battle it out.

---

Holy fuck, Taylor! :o #25 debut on Radio Songs and #72 on the Hot 100... In one and a half days... Too bad it didn't debut at #100. :(