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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 3, 2013 9:33:02 GMT -5
Although we are still early in the Billboard chart year (week 16), 2013 is shaping up to be the first year since 2007 that the #1 HOT 100 song is not also the #1 selling digital song. A couple of more weeks at the current YouTube streaming rate and "Harlem Shake" will have a stranglehold on the year-end #1 spot (unless another song goes viral), while "Thrift Shop" is looking like the #1 selling song.
In August 2007 Billboard changes its' weighting for digital sales from 5 to 1 to 10 to 1 to the detriment of songs that were popular in the late summer and fall. So the year-end chart had strange anomalies such as "Stronger" ending up at #7 on the digital sales year-end tally, but only #27 on the HOT 100 year-end rankings.
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Post by hiphopman24 on Mar 3, 2013 9:35:40 GMT -5
Can't Hold Us at 4M AI! Love that song!
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kc98
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Post by kc98 on Mar 3, 2013 10:09:24 GMT -5
Go Demi! get that 3+ million update!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:02:29 GMT -5
Readers share thoughts on YouTube data joining the Hot 100, Baauer's big points lead at No. 1 and the sales of the original 'American Idol.'
As always, submit your questions about Billboard charts, as well as general music musings, to askbb@billboard.com. Please include your first and last name, as well as your city, state and country, if outside the U.S. Or, Tweet questions to Gary Trust: @gthot20
A WHOLE LOTTA 'SHAKE'-IN' GOING ON
Hello Gary,
I'm writing you to express my deepest disappointment about the recent change in the Billboard Hot 100's chart methodology to include YouTube data.
It's true that with the rise of social media it is indispensible to have YouTube added to the chart's calculation, but you have given YouTube nearly complete power to control it. This power comes in the form that every video that has the song in it will be counted for overall streaming and chart points. They shouldn't, because what's popular is the video, not the song.
Baauer's "Harlem Shake" is popular, indeed, but the 100 million YouTube views it's generated each of the past two weeks are mainly from a 30-second meme, not the song. It's foolish to think that for that reason that the song is somehow popular.
The Hot 100 has become a puppet of YouTube and it's really sad that after years of hits, and an impeccable legacy, this is being washed down the toilet by foolish decision-making by the Billboard staff. What will be the difference between the Hot 100 and a YouTube ranking? Barely none.
I am really hoping you rectify this. Thirty seconds cannot count as a complete stream of a song … because it ain't.
Cheers,
Rodrigo Zaldivar
Hi Rodrigo,
The decision to add YouTube streaming data (from users only in the U.S.) into the Hot 100's formula hasn't been without controversy. But, I think few would argue, as you concede, that YouTube is clearly a key indicator of music popularity now.
Certainly there's the question of whether a 30-second video (by the thousands, in the case of "Shake") that features audio of a song should count equally as that song's complete video. I know that the possibility of weighting user-generated videos less - an extremely valid stance, certainly - remains a point of much discussion among the ultimate decision-makers in Billboard's chart and edit departments, so surely the topic will be under review and discussion going forward.
Ultimately, Billboard editorial director Bill Werde summed up Billboard's thinking in a "Letter from the Editor" published in last week's print issue (dated March 2). That week, "Shake" debuted atop the Hot 100 concurrent with the addition of YouTube data to the chart (and to Hot Country Songs, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs, R&B Songs, Rap Songs, Hot Rock Songs and Hot Latin Songs). "The timing of 'Shake' is a bit of a gift and a curse," Werde wrote. "I'm thrilled we have this immediate example of how responsive the Hot 100 is now to hits on any platform. But the staggering, singular furor of activity around the viral phenomenon actually doesn't represent what will happen in a typical week. Generally speaking, our Hot 100 formula targets a ratio of sales (35-45%), airplay (30-40%) and streaming (20-30%)." [The current splits for "Shake" are 89% streaming, 11% sales and less than 1% airplay.]
In citing PSY's "Gangnam Style," which possibly could've topped the Hot 100 with the inclusion of YouTube data but instead peaked at No. 2 last year behind Maroon 5's "One More Night," Werde specifically addressed 30-second memes as they relate to measuring fans' engagement with songs on the Hot 100. I.e., if people take the time to record a video featuring a song, doesn't that clearly reflect a level of interest in that song, perhaps regardless of the length of the song used? "Some ask why we would include the 30 seconds of 'Shake' as a play that should count. There is some technological logic, such as the already existent inclusion of Spotify streams or radio mixshow plays that all can count with much less than the full song. As well, YouTube and other companies are matching the rights on these Baauer plays so that advertising revenue shares can be paid to the rights holders.
"But perhaps most important?" Werde concluded about "Shake," "It's a hit! It's fairly obvious that no other song was more listened to or discussed last week."
In the future, who's to say now what other data fields will factor into the Hot 100? While sales and airplay had been the chart's two components for decades prior to the addition of streaming, jukebox plays once factored into the equation. As long as music is consumed, the ways in which it is should be under consideration for Hot 100 tabulation.
In a recent charts department back-and-forth, the comment was made that "Happy Birthday" is perhaps the most popular song each week, as it's sung at countless parties around the world (and in the U.S., per the Hot 100's scope). There's just not one recorded version, though, being played at those parties. If there were, and, more importantly, if Nielsen could monitor homes across the country, would it make sense to include those plays in the Hot 100? (Our poor Nielsen colleagues would probably have to bring a present each time, though. That would only be right.)
Essentially, then, could the Hot 100 expand to further platforms? Would it make sense to, include, say, plays of songs at sporting events, where up to 60,000 or more fans hear them? Or, if an act plays a song in concert at Madison Square Garden in front of 20,000, would that reach not be worthy of measurement? Those fans paid perhaps hundreds of dollars to hear it. And, how about TV reach? We note when a show like HBO's "Girls" features a song like Icona Pop's "I Love It" and how that translates to radio play and sales. But, what about the more than 1 million people who watched the show and heard the song that night. Should (and, how would) that reach be counted? And, how about weekly plays of songs in your iPod? Or, tape … record … or … 8-track collections?
To how far, ultimately, should (or, more logically, could) the Hot 100 extent of measurement expand?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:04:08 GMT -5
As always, submit your questions about Billboard charts, as well as general music musings, to askbb@billboard.com. Please include your first and last name, as well as your city, state and country, if outside the U.S. Or, Tweet questions to Gary Trust: @gthot20
EXACTLY HOW MUCH 'SHAKE'-IN' GOING ON?
@gthot20 Here's a good question for Chart Beat. Does Harlem Shake have the biggest point lead by any #1 hit? It's mindboggling.
Garrett @magnumartero12
Hi Garrett,
As noted the last two weeks in our Wednesday Hot 100 news stories, Baauer's "Harlem Shake" has accrued three-and-a-half-times as many overall chart points as runner-up "Thrift Shop" by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, featuring Wanz. (Under the Hot 100's formula, total sales, streams and sales contribute to an overall points sum buy which the chart's titles are ranked.)
So, it's actually more logical to compare instances where the Hot 100's top song has boasted a lead of approximately three times as many points as the No. 2 track, as opposed to a pure points lead. And, we need to stick to the 21 years in which Nielsen BDS airplay (and, now streaming, too) and Nielsen SoundScan sales data has powered the chart, as before the chart's Nov. 30, 1991, adoption of Nielsen figures, chart methodology simply isn't comparable. (Before then, radio stations and retailers submitted ranked reports, so there was no way to gauge the true depths of differences between titles.)
Scanning the past two decades, three other cases stand out where the percentage gap between the Hot 100's top two songs was as large, or larger, as that between "Shake" and "Shop" the past two weeks. And, both, like now, involved monster pop culture smashes at No. 1.
In 1992-93, for multiple weeks of its 14-week command, Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You" sported a lead of approximately three times as many chart points as the No. 2 songs. The not-so-close challengers in those frames? '90s R&B flashback alert: Shai's "If I Ever Fall in Love" and Wreckx-N-Effect's "Rump Shaker."
Five years later, Elton John's tribute to the late Princess Diana, "Candle in the Wind 1997," backed with "Something About the Way You Look Tonight," likewise racked a 14-week reign. It blocked Usher's "You Make Me Wanna…," which peaked at No. 2 for seven weeks, from the summit by a large spread in that span, including a massive lead of more than six times as many points the week of Oct. 18, 1997. That week, "Candle" sold an incredible 1.2 million physical singles, according to Nielsen SoundScan, as fans memorialized Diana's passing.
And, 15 years ago this week, Celine Dion bowed atop the Hot 100 with "My Heart Will Go On." The love theme from "Titanic" seemed like it would … never … let … go … of No. 1, leading the No. 2 song, again by Usher, "Nice & Slow" (which had already led for two weeks by then), with about three times as many points.
So, the current huge points lead that "Harlem Shake" is showing over "Thrift Shop" is rare, but not unprecedented. And, considering John's lead the week of Oct. 18, 1997, it's only about half as big a difference as we've seen before.
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Post by josh on Mar 3, 2013 14:06:34 GMT -5
It's like they read Pulse with that last part. (in the first post)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:12:30 GMT -5
I will pull this out of the above for the forumula people
"Generally speaking, our Hot 100 formula targets a ratio of sales (35-45%), airplay (30-40%) and streaming (20-30%)."
Also from reading this, it does sound like the 30-second clip thing is recognized as controversial and will be reviewed going forward and possibly tweaked if they find a reason to.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:13:26 GMT -5
Doesn't it not count as an actual spin if only 30 seconds of a song get played on the radio? Or is that only if it's part of an ad?
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 3, 2013 14:26:25 GMT -5
Wasn't My Heart Will Go On only #1 for two weeks on the Hot 100?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:30:37 GMT -5
yes....due to single availability.
As we know many hits from that era had no single and could not chart but many others had singles released in limited capacity so they could chart. This was such a case. If the single availability had the same timing as the airplay peak, this would have had a much longer run at #1
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:32:06 GMT -5
Wasn't "My Heart Will Go On" released in a very limited quantity?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:35:35 GMT -5
yes that is what I said in my post
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:36:15 GMT -5
iirc MYWGO was only shipped about 650k copies, but about 350k of those were sold in the first week. Plus it was breaking AI records at the time.
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Mar 3, 2013 14:38:30 GMT -5
Yes in order to boost sales for not one, but TWO albums, and it worked. Both Celine's album and the Titanic soundtrack had healthy sales. I don't know the last time that happened where the buying public had two options (ie. albums) to purchase a song and both options came out on top.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:42:04 GMT -5
Or perhaps three. There was also the radio remix that appeared on the second soundtrack
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:42:34 GMT -5
yes that is what I said in my post I wasn't sure if that's what you meant by "single availability" because the last sentence seemed to be about the release date. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 14:48:12 GMT -5
OK sorry - I probably wasn't clear enough
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2013 15:36:07 GMT -5
Demi is coming for wigs!
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 3, 2013 16:43:08 GMT -5
Thank you 2m for posting the e-mails to Billboard and Gary's answer. I sent my own e-mail last Thursday to Gary but have not heard back. The e-mail from Rodrigo basically covers off my points very nicely (he was a bit less diplomatic then I was though).
I had forgotten about Celine Dion's initial week at #1 being over 3 times more popular than the #2 song. I would point out that the big difference between what is happening now and in the past, is in prior situations the enormous lead was due to sales, which is a more impressive achievement then watching a free video (consumers had to go out and actually spend money).
The aspect of including meme videos that scares me the most is that it could result in a song spending months on end at #1 almost solely based on YouTube video streaming. This week it was the Miami Heat basketball team, next week heaven only knows who (maybe a baseball or hockey team). Once a trend like this gets going it seems everyone wants to get in on the act. I figured that for every 10 million streams a song gets approximately 25,000 chart points (400:1 ratio) which is equal to 300,000 digital downloads or 187.5 million AI. So 90 million YouTube streams would be equal to 2.7M downloads (only happened once in 1997) or some 1.68 billion AI (a number that is impossible to achieve).
My preference would be that only the "official" video be included in the mix, but if user generated videos are included that the weighting be far less than it is now.
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Mar 3, 2013 17:55:19 GMT -5
Is Billboard counting the Youtube views on the sales schedule (Monday-Sunday) or the airplay one (Wednesday-Tuesday) or does it have its own "week", like Sunday to Saturday?
The Miami Heat "Harlem Shake" is getting crazy views, 20.9 million since the video was posted on February 28, though not all are from the US obviously.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Mar 3, 2013 18:28:56 GMT -5
Interesting read. Well Harlem shake will be #1 for the foreseeable future. Whoohooo! I liked Billboard's explanation.
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Mar 4, 2013 9:12:51 GMT -5
MONDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:
1. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 188.285 (- 0.704)
2. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 170.516 (+ 0.575)
3. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 156.195 (- 0.207) ▲
4. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 155.944 (- 1.739) ▼
5. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 143.767 (- 0.584)
6. MAROON 5 – Daylight: 142.120 (+ 1.334)
7. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 126.692 (+ 1.706)
8. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 124.096 (+ 0.314)
9. BRUNO MARS – When I Was Your Man: 110.725 (+ 2.976)
10. CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 104.503 (+ 0.135)
11. PINK – Try: 100.785 (- 2.025)
12. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 100.130 (- 0.078)
13. IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 85.558 (- 0.842)
14. RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 81.508 (+ 0.243)
15. MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 76.822 (+ 0.205)
16. A$AP ROCKY – F**kin Problems f/Drake: 75.444 (- 0.211)
17. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 73.416 (- 1.216)
18. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 71.120 (- 0.693)
19. TIM MCGRAW – One Of Those Nights: 69.086 (+ 0.143)
20. RIHANNA – Stay f/Mikky Ekko: 65.343 (+ 2.553) ▲
OTHERS:
PITBULL – Feel This Moment f/C. Aguilera: 64.763 (+ 0.699)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 64.610 (+ 0.262)
ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 64.391 (- 1.918)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 64.309 (+ 0.655)
KENDRICK LAMAR – Poetic Justice f/Drake: 60.261 (+ 1.335)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 60.052 (+ 0.636)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 57.876 (+ 1.075)
LIL WAYNE – Love Me f/Drake & Future: 48.666 (+ 0.810)
FUN. – Carry On: 47.613 (+ 1.053)
DRAKE – Started From The Bottom: 47.056 (+ 1.465)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Downtown: 43.633 (+ 0.299)
OLLY MURS – Troublemaker f/Flo Rida: 38.741 (- 0.307)
MUSE – Madness: 33.027 (+ 1.556)
KREWELLA – Alive: 31.345 (+ 1.788)
ONE DIRECTION – Kiss You: 26.035 (+ 0.357)
FALL OUT BOY – My Songs Know What You Did…: 21.272 (+ 0.493)
PINK – Just Give Me A Reason: 20.110 (+ 1.688)
DEMI LOVATO – Heart Attack: 16.485 (+ 3.151)
LUMINEERS – Stubborn Love: 9.309 (- 0.014)
BAAUER – Harlem Shake: 8.865 (+ 0.583)
CHER LLOYD – With Ur Love f/Juicy J: 7.450 (+ 0.325)
JUSTIN BIEBER – Right Here f/Drake: 7.336 (+ 0.287)
PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 6.641 (+ 0.135)
TAYLOR SWIFT – 22: 4.269 (+ 0.294)
BRAD PAISLEY – Beat This Summer: 3.542 (+ 0.469)
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 9:49:56 GMT -5
Interesting read. Well Harlem shake will be #1 for the foreseeable future. Whoohooo! I liked Billboard's explanation. I can buy into Billboard's explanation that if a person uses a song in their video then it is popular with that individual. However, what I find hard to accept is just because somebody watches the homemade video, that the song in the video is popular. The meme of the current week is a bunch of highly paid basketball players dancing to the "Harlem Shake". If it had been a bunch of high school students from Miami, instead of the Miami Heat, the # of views would have likely been much less. I personally would find "Harlem Shake's" success less grating if the #2 song was not setting sales (likely to go over 300K in sales for a record 8 weeks) and on-demand streaming (2.1M) records each week. |
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jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Mar 4, 2013 9:57:27 GMT -5
Anyone wonder what the burn factor of Harlem Shake will be? Don't you think after five weeks of intense play, the novelty will wear off in ways that PSY did not?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 10:02:43 GMT -5
However, what I find hard to accept is just because somebody watches the homemade video, that the song in the video is popular. But it's still being heard. It depends on how you define "popular". To me, it's not all that different from someone listening to their favorite radio station when a song comes on that they're kind of indifferent to, but they leave the station on anyway because they like the station. Are they listening to the song because they like the song or because they like the station? The only part of factoring in YouTube videos that I may not be a fan of (since I don't know if this is actually the case) is if views are counted as soon as someone loads a video rather than completing at least half the video before turning it off. |
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Mar 4, 2013 10:13:46 GMT -5
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Mar 4, 2013 11:37:51 GMT -5
But it's still being heard. It depends on how you define "popular". To me, it's not all that different from someone listening to their favorite radio station when a song comes on that they're kind of indifferent to, but they leave the station on anyway because they like the station. Are they listening to the song because they like the song or because they like the station? The only part of factoring in YouTube videos that I may not be a fan of (since I don't know if this is actually the case) is if views are counted as soon as someone loads a video rather than completing at least half the video before turning it off. I agree. What the Hot 100 is trying to measure is not popularity necessarily so much as reach. How "big" is a song? How many people heard it in the past week? Not, why are people listening to/buying this song or how much they like a song. Generally, people don't buy songs they aren't listening to, but in the case of a charity song, it might just be too depressing, or by an artist somebody doesn't really like, but the proceeds go to a good cause, so people buy it, and those sales count in tabulating the Hot 100. If Billboard doesn't try to figure out the motives of someone who buys a song or someone who listens to a song on the radio, then why do they have to scrutinize the reasons when it's Youtube? |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 4, 2013 11:44:59 GMT -5
Anyone wonder what the burn factor of Harlem Shake will be? Don't you think after five weeks of intense play, the novelty will wear off in ways that PSY did not? I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. |
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Post by nivekwriter1 on Mar 4, 2013 11:49:52 GMT -5
Other airplay updates (03/03/2013)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Tornado: 61.965 (+ 0.566)
HUNTER HAYES - Somebody's Heartb...: 51.985 (+ 0.379)
CHRIS YOUNG - I Can Take It Fro...: 39.923 (+ 0.545)
KENNY CHESNEY - Pirate Flag: 38.861 (+ 0.284)
MIRANDA LAMBERT - Mama's Broken Hea...: 35.752 (+ 0.988)
RIHANNA - Loveeeeeee Song f...: 31.718 (+ 0.369)
ERIC CHURCH - Like Jesus Does: 24.401 (+ 0.935)
DARIUS RUCKER - Wagon Wheel: 21.915 (+ 1.884)
EMELI SANDE - Next To Me: 21.388 (+ 0.530)
NELLY - Hey Porsche: 18.218 (+ 0.194)
B.O.B - Still In This B**...: 16.071 (+ 0.269)
KELLY ROWLAND - Kisses Down Low: 10.837 (+ 0.651)
KEITH URBAN - You Gonna Fly: 8.693 (+ 1.077)
EMELI SANDE - Clown: 3.848 (+ 0.521)
ELLIE GOULDING - Figure 8: 3.365 (- 0.365)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN... - Can't Hold Us f/R...: 4.617 (+ 0.617)
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jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Mar 4, 2013 12:13:02 GMT -5
Its so hard to judge. In 1996, I thought the Macarena would burn out in a month as it was so ubiquitous: It went on to be #1 for 14 weeks. But that was before the instant internet culture which tends to saturate things fast. And HS is not singable, so there is really no emotional connection other than "funny memes" or hot dance instrumental. Could this really stay at these astronomical levels until the summer? I am astounded that Gagnam Style stayed #1 on Youtube for so long. HS's great but less-than-colossal itunes sales indicate that it really is the video that is helping this song.
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