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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 12:26:18 GMT -5
HS is getting 100 million Youtube views, while Thrift Shop is getting 180 million Ai. I think its sales are very good. :)
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 13:44:21 GMT -5
But it's still being heard. It depends on how you define "popular". To me, it's not all that different from someone listening to their favorite radio station when a song comes on that they're kind of indifferent to, but they leave the station on anyway because they like the station. Are they listening to the song because they like the song or because they like the station? The only part of factoring in YouTube videos that I may not be a fan of (since I don't know if this is actually the case) is if views are counted as soon as someone loads a video rather than completing at least half the video before turning it off. I agree. What the Hot 100 is trying to measure is not popularity necessarily so much as reach. How "big" is a song? How many people heard it in the past week? Not, why are people listening to/buying this song or how much they like a song. Generally, people don't buy songs they aren't listening to, but in the case of a charity song, it might just be too depressing, or by an artist somebody doesn't really like, but the proceeds go to a good cause, so people buy it, and those sales count in tabulating the Hot 100. If Billboard doesn't try to figure out the motives of someone who buys a song or someone who listens to a song on the radio, then why do they have to scrutinize the reasons when it's Youtube? You may want to send an e-mail to Billboard asking them to change their website, because it currently says that the HOT 100 is: "The week's most popular current songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience ..." |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 13:52:57 GMT -5
I agree. What the Hot 100 is trying to measure is not popularity necessarily so much as reach. How "big" is a song? How many people heard it in the past week? Not, why are people listening to/buying this song or how much they like a song. Generally, people don't buy songs they aren't listening to, but in the case of a charity song, it might just be too depressing, or by an artist somebody doesn't really like, but the proceeds go to a good cause, so people buy it, and those sales count in tabulating the Hot 100. If Billboard doesn't try to figure out the motives of someone who buys a song or someone who listens to a song on the radio, then why do they have to scrutinize the reasons when it's Youtube? You may want to send an e-mail to Billboard asking them to change their website, because it currently says that the HOT 100 is: "The week's most popular current songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience ..."The full wording: The week's most popular current songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience impressions as measured by Nielsen BDS, sales data as compiled by Nielsen SoundScan and streaming activity data from online music sources tracked by Nielsen BDS. Songs are defined as current if they are newly-released titles, or songs receiving widespread airplay and/or sales activity for the first time. |
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 13:54:34 GMT -5
Anyone wonder what the burn factor of Harlem Shake will be? Don't you think after five weeks of intense play, the novelty will wear off in ways that PSY did not? I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. Gangnam Style even in its' best weeks was receiving a fraction of the views that Harlem Shake is now receiving. Even if Harlem Shake loses 10 million views a week, it will still have over 25 million views in 7 weeks which is likely enough to keep it at #1 (unless Billboard changes the formula before then). The #2 ranking for Gangnam Style on Youtube guarantees a top 30 placement for a song that was about to exit the HOT 100 due to a lack of sales and airplay. I have already conceded the #1 song of 2013 to "Harlem Shake" assuming that Billboard does not change the formula for several weeks if at all. In its' first 2 weeks it likely accumulated more than 600,000 chart points. Such a point total would have placed it close to the Top 10 for 2012. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 14:05:10 GMT -5
I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. Gangnam Style even in its' best weeks was receiving a fraction of the views that Harlem Shake is now receiving. Even if Harlem Shake loses 10 million views a week, it will still have over 25 million views in 7 weeks which is likely enough to keep it at #1 (unless Billboard changes the formula before then). The #2 ranking for Gangnam Style on Youtube guarantees a top 30 placement for a song that was about to exit the HOT 100 due to a lack of sales and airplay. I have already conceded the #1 song of 2013 to "Harlem Shake" assuming that Billboard does not change the formula for several weeks if at all. In its' first 2 weeks it likely accumulated more than 600,000 chart points. Such a point total would have placed it close to the Top 10 for 2012. If Gangnam Style had ben properly ranked from the get go, it would not have been close to falling out |
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Keelzit
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Post by Keelzit on Mar 4, 2013 14:38:04 GMT -5
I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. Even if Harlem Shake loses 10 million views a week, it will still have over 25 million views in 7 weeks which is likely enough to keep it at #1 (unless Billboard changes the formula before then). I don't understand this. I thought youtube views only made up for 25% of the Hot 100. I understand why it was #1 when it got 100 million views in a week but since sales make up for approximately 40% of the Hot 100 wouldn't Thrift Shop be #1 if it sells 300k again? |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 14:40:11 GMT -5
The percent thing is only an average. So for most songs, youtube will make up 25% of their totals. Thrift Shop for example is close to that. Harlem Shake though, is huge on Youtube so it makes up around 90% of its points, with sales making up the remaining 10%. Its lead is so big that it would still be #1 even with around 30-40 million views, especially if it keeps up its healthy sales.
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jebsib
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Post by jebsib on Mar 4, 2013 14:44:16 GMT -5
As a barometer, can anyone suggest other viral clips / videos that have been massive in the last 5 years?
Friday, PSY, HS... What else might have been something outside the confines of pop radio that gives us a clue to where we're going....?
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Keelzit
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Post by Keelzit on Mar 4, 2013 14:45:19 GMT -5
The percent thing is only an average. So for most songs, youtube will make up 25% of their totals. Thrift Shop for example is close to that. Harlem Shake though, is huge on Youtube so it makes up around 90% of its points, with sales making up the remaining 10%. Its lead is so big that it would still be #1 even with around 30-40 million views, especially if it keeps up its healthy sales. Exactly. Its million of views make up for 90% percent of its own chart points but that doesn't mean that those views weren't multiplied by 0.25 to apply to the general formula of the Hot 100. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 14:55:11 GMT -5
As a barometer, can anyone suggest other viral clips / videos that have been massive in the last 5 years? Friday, PSY, HS... What else might have been something outside the confines of pop radio that gives us a clue to where we're going....? Susan Boyle |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 14:57:00 GMT -5
Bed Intruder
Jizz In My Pants
I Just Had Sex,
Plus a few other Lonely Island Songs would have gotten a considerable boost.
Skrillex songs would have a nice boost too.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Mar 4, 2013 15:05:36 GMT -5
Check this out to see that it's not really wearing out just yet (though that new spike over the weekend may include YouTube searches for "do the harlem shake"): t.co/d3UT1E81KH (Ignore the last day; I don't think it's indexed Sunday yet.) |
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 15:06:19 GMT -5
Assuming that Billboard kept the same weightings for sales (12:1) and radio airplay (7,500:1), the only weighting that I could find that works is 200:1 for on-demand and 400:1 for passive streaming.
Using these weightings and the information Billboard provided on its' webpage, I got the following results:
March 2nd, 2013:
Harlem Shake = 280,372.5 (91.57% of total points from passive streaming)
Thrift Shop = 79,233.33
March 9th, 2013:
Harlem Shake = 272,557.50 (89.15% of total points from passive streaming);
Thrift Shop = 74,666.67
I had to do a bit of guessing on the on-demand streaming for Thrift Shop for the week of March 2nd.
If I use the old weightings of 150 for on-demand and 300 for passive, Harlem Shake ends up with more than 4 times the point total of Thrift Shop. If I use weightings of 250 and 500, I end up with Harlem Shake being less 3.5 times Thrift Shop.
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Mar 4, 2013 15:23:08 GMT -5
how many weeks realistically is Harlem Shake going to be #1 you think?
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bat1990
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Post by bat1990 on Mar 4, 2013 15:26:39 GMT -5
17!
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Mar 4, 2013 15:28:38 GMT -5
watch it be the #1 of all-time, lol.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Mar 4, 2013 15:33:07 GMT -5
Anyone wonder what the burn factor of Harlem Shake will be? Don't you think after five weeks of intense play, the novelty will wear off in ways that PSY did not? I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. Thrift Shop was #2 on Youtube this week and last week, wasn't it? |
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 16:02:24 GMT -5
how many weeks realistically is Harlem Shake going to be #1 you think? I am betting that Billboard's chart department will "tweak" the formula and "Harlem Shake" will not have more than 6 weeks at the top. |
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Mar 4, 2013 16:05:42 GMT -5
So I'm hearing Stay and Pour It Up are both on Rhapsody now? Can anyone confirm?
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Mar 4, 2013 16:11:22 GMT -5
So I'm hearing Stay and Pour It Up are both on Rhapsody now? Can anyone confirm? Yes, as is "Loveeeeeee Song:" www.rhapsody.com/artist/rihanna/tracks I presume "Diamonds" and the Kanye remix had been there previously. |
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Post by josh on Mar 4, 2013 16:12:09 GMT -5
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Mar 4, 2013 16:54:22 GMT -5
I'm having a party on 3/16 and my guests want to make a HS video. Lord help me now!
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Mar 4, 2013 17:23:58 GMT -5
I think the novelty is already wearing off. The videos that are getting the views now are either really impressive or have important people in them - or both. For example, nobody cares about the Macarena anymore but if the queen of england were recorded on video doing it, everyone would watch it. I just don't see how including YouTube into the equation will mean songs will spend months at #1. Psy is #2 again on YouTube isn't he? Yet Gangnam Style isn't #2 on the Hot 100. Thrift Shop was #2 on Youtube this week and last week, wasn't it? Maybe. Though I thought I read that Psy had returned from 3-2. Maybe it's #3? |
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Mar 4, 2013 17:24:12 GMT -5
My jazz band wants to as well, behind the curve as usual, haha.  I'll be sure to watch from the sidelines.  |
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Post by josh on Mar 4, 2013 17:30:03 GMT -5
Thrift Shop was #2 on Youtube this week and last week, wasn't it? Maybe. Though I thought I read that Psy had returned from 3-2. Maybe it's #3? Psy #2, 3 last week. TS #3, 4 last week, 2 peak. Stay #6, 2 last week, 2 peak. Just put this there since the big jump then fall for the song. |
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Mar 4, 2013 17:50:52 GMT -5
I just saw a Youtube video in which "Harlem Shake" faces off against "Gangnam Style". These stupid dance crazes are like cockraoches and dandelions, almost impossible to kill off.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Mar 4, 2013 17:58:46 GMT -5
how many weeks realistically is Harlem Shake going to be #1 you think? 6-10 |
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lawmak
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Post by lawmak on Mar 4, 2013 19:57:22 GMT -5
Assuming that Billboard kept the same weightings for sales (12:1) and radio airplay (7,500:1), the only weighting that I could find that works is 200:1 for on-demand and 400:1 for passive streaming. Using these weightings and the information Billboard provided on its' webpage, I got the following results: March 2nd, 2013: Harlem Shake = 280,372.5 (91.57% of total points from passive streaming) Thrift Shop = 79,233.33 March 9th, 2013: Harlem Shake = 272,557.50 (89.15% of total points from passive streaming); Thrift Shop = 74,666.67 I had to do a bit of guessing on the on-demand streaming for Thrift Shop for the week of March 2nd. If I use the old weightings of 150 for on-demand and 300 for passive, Harlem Shake ends up with more than 4 times the point total of Thrift Shop. If I use weightings of 250 and 500, I end up with Harlem Shake being less 3.5 times Thrift Shop. Ahhh..now it makes sense.. I guess the new formula came in a "particular" time..and that Billboard staff is hoping this won't be a typical chart run for a single... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 20:03:31 GMT -5
I just saw a Youtube video in which "Harlem Shake" faces off against "Gangnam Style". These stupid dance crazes are like cockraoches and dandelions, almost impossible to kill off. Some of the biggest songs in the history of the chart are from dance crazes - so this is nothing new The Twist Macarena etc |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2013 0:01:33 GMT -5
You may want to send an e-mail to Billboard asking them to change their website, because it currently says that the HOT 100 is: "The week's most popular current songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience ..."The full wording: The week's most popular current songs across all genres, ranked by radio airplay audience impressions as measured by Nielsen BDS, sales data as compiled by Nielsen SoundScan and streaming activity data from online music sources tracked by Nielsen BDS. Songs are defined as current if they are newly-released titles, or songs receiving widespread airplay and/or sales activity for the first time. Billboard still may want to update that now that they include old titles if they're receiving widespread airplay and/or sales activity for the SECOND time. |
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I'll be sure to watch from the sidelines. 