Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 22, 2015 21:15:05 GMT -5
So UF wouldve tied OSD. I have a feeling Earned It may jump into the top 2 next week. The streaming gains (and esp radio gains) plus sales staying stable make it look likely. Theres still 3-4 days left and I think it should be enough time for EI to do it. If EI replaces UF at #2 next week, that means in all likelihood it wouldve been the song that prevented UF from breaking the record. If UF stays at #2 next week it would've officially been the longest #1 ever (if not for SYA). Mark G surprised u liked my post/agreed with me lol ? Thought u were gonna say UF *def will be at #2 again next week. I'd say it's 50/50ish BUT UF is reeally starting to collapse esp on radio while EI is gaining w/ both radio and esp. streaming. If it was Sat/Sun I'd be more like 60/40 or 70/30. Again, with 4 full more days left and the free-fall UF is now dealing with, there's enough time for EI (basically the only possible #2 contender for next week) to leapfrog UF. The fact it jumped 3 notches this week is key behind my theory/predection. He did with me - LOL. He posted his prediction right after I said this was the last week at #2.
It did not finish the week top 2 in any of the metrics and is likely to fall further next week. Soon to be #5 in radio and #8 or lower in sales. I suppose that translates to top 2 if streaming posts big gains so....we'll see 
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2015 21:17:16 GMT -5
So UF wouldve tied OSD. I have a feeling Earned It may jump into the top 2 next week. The streaming gains (and esp radio gains) plus sales staying stable make it look likely. Theres still 3-4 days left and I think it should be enough time for EI to do it. If EI replaces UF at #2 next week, that means in all likelihood it wouldve been the song that prevented UF from breaking the record. If UF stays at #2 next week it would've officially been the longest #1 ever (if not for SYA). Mark G surprised u liked my post/agreed with me lol ? Thought u were gonna say UF *def will be at #2 again next week. I'd say it's 50/50ish BUT UF is reeally starting to collapse esp on radio while EI is gaining w/ both radio and esp. streaming. If it was Sat/Sun I'd be more like 60/40 or 70/30. Again, with 4 full more days left and the free-fall UF is now dealing with, there's enough time for EI (basically the only possible #2 contender for next week) to leapfrog UF. The fact it jumped 3 notches this week is key behind my theory/predection. I am not certain UF will be #2 next week lol but it's likely I think. I agreed with the rest of what you said in that post though. I think EI is still pretty a bit far away (I could be wrong though). And I think it will fall in streaming next this coming week (didn't the article say that streaming was bumped up by some video?). It might even fall to #4, who knows? LMLYD also fell pretty hard. They both fell because of a big unexpected decrease in streaming. I think there might've been something about the streaming of the two Fifty Shades Of Grey songs hence their fall in overall Hot 100 points. But Earned It still had a bullet, which means a net increase in points, no? I'm thinking the bullet was given in error, because it also lost in digital sales, and I don't think its airplay gains were enough to offset the other two. But the bullet still shows, why haven't they taken it away if it's such a simple error to correct? A mystery... EI had a big fall in streaming last week though lol, it fell 4-9 IIRC. I don't think I understand what it is that you're asking lol |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 22, 2015 21:35:48 GMT -5
"You Were Meant For Me" and "Slide" have accurate peaks. "Foolish Games" was allowed to chart on the technicality that it was the B-Side to a previously released commercial single. The commercial single itself was out of print by then so it had minimal sales. Plus, it never got to appear as its own entry so to speak, but its peak is accurate enough. "Iris" though very likely would have gone to #1 though. Yes, it appeared in the Hot 100 top 10 the first week airplay only singles were allowed to chart. However, that was December and it peaked in the early summer so... the fact that it was still there at all many months later shows just how high it likely would have soared. I believe Iris 'debuted' at #6 waaaay after it peaked on radio. So no question Iris would have went to #1. 18 weeks at #1 on radio. Still crazy long. You have to look at what was #1 at that time. "The Boy Is Mine" was #1 for a lot of that time, and it had big sales. What was its airplay? And what else was #1 during the "Iris" run in airplay? |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 22, 2015 21:36:27 GMT -5
Why does it matter if "UF" will be #2 next week and if it would have broken the record? "SYA" is out and is #1, and that is that.
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Apr 22, 2015 22:04:30 GMT -5
It very well could have broken it though - I have a feeling next week might be it's last week in the top 2. Nah, this is the last not the next one. It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now What's going to be #2? Earned It? Their airplay is basically equal, and Uptown Funk is still surpassing it in sales & streaming - doesn't matter if it's not in the top 2 of the 3 metrics. We'll see, Uptown Funk has consistency in sales, airplay & streaming. Edit: Oops, didn't read Mark G.'s response! |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 22, 2015 22:10:39 GMT -5
Nah, this is the last not the next one. It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now What's going to be #2? Earned It? Their airplay is basically equal, and Uptown Funk is still surpassing it in sales & streaming - doesn't matter if it's not in the top 2 of the 3 metrics. We'll see, Uptown Funk has consistency in sales, airplay & streaming. I based that comment not on the current chart position of #3 In sales, streaming and airplay but its likely positions next week. It is #3 and heading towards #5 really quickly in airplay. It is #3 in sales and based on recent iTunes activity will be #8 or lower at the end of the tracking week. Now streaming which is also #3 could pick back up and offset all of that.
Wishful thinking is not going to keep this at #2.
Why does it matter anyway? 14 weeks at #1, 17 in the top 2. The latter being a record. A good run at the top, but it is looking to be about over.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2015 22:18:29 GMT -5
Nah, this is the last not the next one. It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now What's going to be #2? Earned It? Their airplay is basically equal, and Uptown Funk is still surpassing it in sales & streaming - doesn't matter if it's not in the top 2 of the 3 metrics. We'll see, Uptown Funk has consistency in sales, airplay & streaming. Edit: Oops, didn't read Mark G.'s response! Actually Earned It is now ahead of UF in sales lol. Also by the end of the tracking week EI will have a decent lead over UF in airplay. I think the streaming might make up for that though. |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Apr 22, 2015 22:41:19 GMT -5
What's going to be #2? Earned It? Their airplay is basically equal, and Uptown Funk is still surpassing it in sales & streaming - doesn't matter if it's not in the top 2 of the 3 metrics. We'll see, Uptown Funk has consistency in sales, airplay & streaming. I based that comment not on the current chart position of #3 In sales, streaming and airplay but its likely positions next week. It is #3 and heading towards #5 really quickly in airplay. It is #3 in sales and based on recent iTunes activity will be #8 or lower at the end of the tracking week. Now streaming which is also #3 could pick back up and offset all of that.
Wishful thinking is not going to keep this at #2.
Why does it matter anyway? 14 weeks at #1, 17 in the top 2. The latter being a record. A good run at the top, but it is looking to be about over.
Yup, wishful thinking won't keep it at #2 just like wishful thinking won't not keep it at #2. I could care less if it's #2, but just like Mark G. noted, all the examples of songs being #1 without being top 2 on any components. All the songs below Uptown Funk are just starting to catch up to it, and Uptown Funk is not dropping like a rock - it's dropping, but it's still kind of consistent. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 22, 2015 22:54:09 GMT -5
I based that comment not on the current chart position of #3 In sales, streaming and airplay but its likely positions next week. It is #3 and heading towards #5 really quickly in airplay. It is #3 in sales and based on recent iTunes activity will be #8 or lower at the end of the tracking week. Now streaming which is also #3 could pick back up and offset all of that.
Wishful thinking is not going to keep this at #2.
Why does it matter anyway? 14 weeks at #1, 17 in the top 2. The latter being a record. A good run at the top, but it is looking to be about over.
Yup, wishful thinking won't keep it at #2 just like wishful thinking won't not keep it at #2. I could care less if it's #2, but just like Mark G. noted, all the examples of songs being #1 without being top 2 on any components. All the songs below Uptown Funk are just starting to catch up to it, and Uptown Funk is not dropping like a rock - it's dropping, but it's still kind of consistent. Don't wish to argue. Not being top 2 in any component while still being #2 overall is what happened this week(all 3 metrics #3). Never said it was dropping like a rock ether. Based on the current daily airplay charts and the current iTunes position. We are looking at positions quite a bit lower than #3 for 2 of the 3 metrics. The wildcard being streaming. As you said, all the songs below it are just starting to catch up to it. Looks like that trend will continue next week too. #8 in sales and probably #5 in airplay is where it is headed (barring sudden reversals) . Having a hard time seeing that being top 2, short of a viral video.
But anything can happen. I like the song too and like chart records as much as the next person but, to me the run at the top looks to be over. For the sake of people following chart path of the song, I hope I am wrong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2015 23:12:17 GMT -5
I actually prefer UF to NOT be top 2 next week lol because in that case UF would not have beaten the record anyway even if SYA didn't unexpectedly come up. On the other hand though I'll be pissed if Earned It ends up being blocked by SYA (because that would mean that SYA was what prevented my prediction from being right about EI being the one to dethrone UF...grrrrrrrr)
I do hope though that UF can manage 30 weeks in the top 10 (it's at 21 now).
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 22, 2015 23:25:48 GMT -5
I think without See You Again, it would still be #1 and staring at immortality. See You Again, drew attention away from Uptown Funk and onto See You Again as well as other songs. That might not have happened as quickly without it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2015 23:49:45 GMT -5
I think without See You Again, it would still be #1 and staring at immortality. See You Again, drew attention away from Uptown Funk and onto See You Again as well as other songs. That might not have happened as quickly without it. That's a good point! I actually did not think of that...perhaps Boom Boom Pow would've been more successful had I Gotta Feeling not come on the scene (and maybe be the second song in history to get 15 weeks at #1?)...very interesting to ponder how certain songs would've performed if a surprise hit didn't come along in a matter of a couple weeks... |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Apr 23, 2015 4:53:03 GMT -5
Boom!-Style drops 10-12, as expected. This is the first week since August 31 that no 1989 song was on the chart. -Talking Body blasts in 24-18. This and BBHMM kick out Truffle Butter (18-22) and Blank Space (19-23). -Girl Crush, thanks to the ACM, blasts in with the sales gain and jumps right into the top 30 in its first week as a hit 56-25. -Hey Mama, now that it makes top 10 sales, also blasts pretty high 44-27. -3 other new hits, and they're all climbers: Slow Motion (45-38), I Really Like You (83-39) (Fueled both by a 69 cent deal and the celebrity fan video), and Where Are U Now (42-40) (This is as a matter of fact Skrillex's first hit!). -Out of the hit zone (and totally clogging up the 50 zone) are Homegrown (35-41), Riptide (38-42), Heartbeat Song (31-44), Centuries (40-46), and I Don't Mind (37-47). Both Jealous and Stay With Me survived this week, with 48-49 and 49-50 moves respectively. -The top debut is the Nasty Freestyle song at #43, fueled by a #22 start in sales. -The three songs booted from the top 50 are I Don't F--- With You (50-X, recurrent), Outside (46-51), and Elastic Heart (47-52). -DJ Snake had a good week outside of Furious 7: You Know You Like It surges 67-55, and Lean On moves past its debut 100-87. -Back from the dead is Drinking Class, on its 21st week and at a new peak of #56. -Wild Child, in its last 69 cent week, blasts 89-73. -She Don't Love You, thanks to a sales surge midweek, jumps 87-77. -At #80 is Fight Song by Rachel Platten. -Furious 7 songs struggled this week: Aside from See You Again, GDFR drops 8-9, Get Low tumbles 61-74, and Ride Out crashes 70-84. -American Oxygen breaks the Hot Shot streak for Rihanna, merely starting at #91. -Blake Shelton's new single, Sangria, starts at #93 with sales. -Feeling Myself loses its steam 80-95. -Kid Ink starts at #96 for Be Real with DeJ Loaf primarily thanks to a new video. -Imagine by Sawyer Fredericks begins at #98. -Renegades by X Ambassadors starts at #99, fueled by a 69 cent deal (which won't apply this week). -House of the Rising Sun by Kimberly Nichole debuts at #100. -Out of the Hot 100 are the aforementioned IDFWU, Homegrown Honey (81-X, recurrent), 7/11 (51-X, recurrent), Goodbye (98-X), Good Lovin' (97-X), Crash and Burn (96-X), Immortals (92-X), Go Hard or Go Home (86-X), and Tear in My Heart (82-X).
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Apr 23, 2015 7:28:09 GMT -5
I'm surprised Slow Motion made top 40. I'm sure he's had bigger and better songs chart lower. Like 2 Reasons for example (can't remember though)?
Feeling Myself better not drop out the Hot 100 right before it gets sent for rhythmic adds. It's close to going recurrent too, I wonder if it does have a revival would Billboard let it continue charting?
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Tea-why
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Post by Tea-why on Apr 23, 2015 9:21:38 GMT -5
I think without See You Again, it would still be #1 and staring at immortality. See You Again, drew attention away from Uptown Funk and onto See You Again as well as other songs. That might not have happened as quickly without it. That's a good point! I actually did not think of that...perhaps Boom Boom Pow would've been more successful had I Gotta Feeling not come on the scene (and maybe be the second song in history to get 15 weeks at #1?)...very interesting to ponder how certain songs would've performed if a surprise hit didn't come along in a matter of a couple weeks... I'm still surprised "I Got A Feeling" wasn't the song that broke the "One Sweet Day" record. It just felt like that song wasn't going away at all, even more so than "Uptown Funk" did. |
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Apr 23, 2015 9:23:28 GMT -5
That's a good point! I actually did not think of that...perhaps Boom Boom Pow would've been more successful had I Gotta Feeling not come on the scene (and maybe be the second song in history to get 15 weeks at #1?)...very interesting to ponder how certain songs would've performed if a surprise hit didn't come along in a matter of a couple weeks... I'm still surprised "I Got A Feeling" wasn't the song that broke the "One Sweet Day" record. It just felt like that song wasn't going away at all, even more so than "Uptown Funk" did. Maybe it's because IGF's recurrent play is kinda huge? It's still played a lot here. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 23, 2015 11:00:57 GMT -5
But Earned It still had a bullet, which means a net increase in points, no? I'm thinking the bullet was given in error, because it also lost in digital sales, and I don't think its airplay gains were enough to offset the other two. But the bullet still shows, why haven't they taken it away if it's such a simple error to correct? A mystery... EI had a big fall in streaming last week though lol, it fell 4-9 IIRC. I don't think I understand what it is that you're asking lol[/quote] Yes, I understand that EI had a big fall in streaming, but what I am talking about is its overall Hot 100 position, considering all of its points. Let me put it another way: EI dropped 4-6 last week, but still showed a bullet, which Billboard describes as "gains in performance," meaning it must have had a net increase in overall points (assuming that's what "gains in performance" means). What I am asking is how this was able to happen if Thinking Out Loud was able to stay at #5 from the previous week, despite not having a bullet. So, if you think about it logically, the only way a song can drop two spots while still showing an increase in points, and with the song ahead of it keeping the same position from the previous week (in this case, TOL, #5) would be for that song to also have increased in points, but that is not what the chart showed. I'm guessing now though that maybe "gains in performance" doesn't necessarily mean an overall gain in points, but a gain in at least one metric, which in EI's case was airplay. So maybe I was mistaken after all lol! |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 23, 2015 11:02:09 GMT -5
Sorry, I screwed up the quoting above, but hopefully you see what I mean lol
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Dylan :)
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Post by Dylan :) on Apr 23, 2015 11:14:59 GMT -5
Drinking Class is back? And not in the top 50? I really don't get recurrency lol
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 23, 2015 13:00:57 GMT -5
When did the Hot 100 Airplay chart debut? I know in the early '90s Billboard had the Top 40 Monitor, but that wasn't the same as Hot 100 Airplay was it because there was airplay that counted toward the Hot 100 that wasn't covered by Top 40 Monitor?
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 23, 2015 13:22:01 GMT -5
That's a good point! I actually did not think of that...perhaps Boom Boom Pow would've been more successful had I Gotta Feeling not come on the scene (and maybe be the second song in history to get 15 weeks at #1?)...very interesting to ponder how certain songs would've performed if a surprise hit didn't come along in a matter of a couple weeks... I'm still surprised "I Got A Feeling" wasn't the song that broke the "One Sweet Day" record. It just felt like that song wasn't going away at all, even more so than "Uptown Funk" did. My thoughts too. I 'have a feeling' if streaming and all the other variables we have w/ this new formula were in effect in 2009, theres a very good chance it would've gotten more than 14 weeks. IGF would've prob. gotten endless amounts of viral and streaming points. I forgot what song dethroned it and how big of a song it was but IGF *def. was bigger than UF. I love UF but it simply stayed at #1 for so long due to basically NO competition in the entire top 10 for weeks- something that rarely, rarely happens. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2015 13:28:25 GMT -5
I'm still surprised "I Got A Feeling" wasn't the song that broke the "One Sweet Day" record. It just felt like that song wasn't going away at all, even more so than "Uptown Funk" did. My thoughts too. I 'have a feeling' if streaming and all the other variables we have w/ this new formula were in effect in 2009, theres a very good chance it would've gotten more than 14 weeks. IGF would've prob. gotten endless amounts of viral and streaming points. I forgot what song dethroned it and how big of a song it was but IGF *def. was bigger than UF. I love UF but it simply stayed at #1 for so long due to basically NO competition in the entire top 10 for weeks- something that rarely, rarely happens. "Down" by Jay Sean ft. Lil' Wayne was the song that dethroned IGF. And actually there was pretty stiff competition from Ed lol it looked like for sure he was going to get a #1 with that. Unless you mean weeks 11-14 where the only competition was Sugar but it was too weak of a competition and it was clear it wasn't dethroning UF. |
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 23, 2015 14:12:52 GMT -5
I'm already hearing "See You Again" wayyyy too much on the radio and changing the station immediately. It served its purpose ("Uptown Funk" is gone) but now on the next one soon PLEASE!
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 23, 2015 14:20:29 GMT -5
Gone but not forgotten #2 on this chart and according to at least one person, will stay there next week too
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ry4n
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Post by ry4n on Apr 23, 2015 14:21:56 GMT -5
I'm still surprised "I Got A Feeling" wasn't the song that broke the "One Sweet Day" record. It just felt like that song wasn't going away at all, even more so than "Uptown Funk" did. My thoughts too. I 'have a feeling' if streaming and all the other variables we have w/ this new formula were in effect in 2009, theres a very good chance it would've gotten more than 14 weeks. IGF would've prob. gotten endless amounts of viral and streaming points. I forgot what song dethroned it and how big of a song it was but IGF *def. was bigger than UF. I love UF but it simply stayed at #1 for so long due to basically NO competition in the entire top 10 for weeks- something that rarely, rarely happens. If anything, I Gotta Feeling would've gotten less weeks. It fell 1-5 after its 14th week at #1. It was basically done at that point. And streaming would've allowed Boom Boom Pow stay at #1 even longer than it did... which would've blocked IGF's first few weeks. Also, Party In The USA might've been a huge streaming hit as well. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 23, 2015 14:33:41 GMT -5
My thoughts too. I 'have a feeling' if streaming and all the other variables we have w/ this new formula were in effect in 2009, theres a very good chance it would've gotten more than 14 weeks. IGF would've prob. gotten endless amounts of viral and streaming points. I forgot what song dethroned it and how big of a song it was but IGF *def. was bigger than UF. I love UF but it simply stayed at #1 for so long due to basically NO competition in the entire top 10 for weeks- something that rarely, rarely happens. If anything, I Gotta Feeling would've gotten less weeks. It fell 1-5 after its 14th week at #1. It was basically done at that point. And streaming would've allowed Boom Boom Pow stay at #1 even longer than it did... which would've blocked IGF's first few weeks. Also, Party In The USA might've been a huge streaming hit as well. I love reading things like this because the reality is we can't just speculate that a certain song would have been #1 (short of cold, hard information). It's usually people just speculating that a song they liked would have been #1 if not for one thing or another. At the end of the day, we can't know. I mean, look at how once Soundscan arrived, country albums didn't much better on the Billboard 200. Should we now not use any of the peaks from the Billboard 200 pre-Soundscan because maybe some albums would have been blocked by country albums? We can't know. |
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Kris
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Post by Kris on Apr 23, 2015 14:45:59 GMT -5
Never before joining Pulse did I realize how worked up people got over music statistics.
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Apr 23, 2015 14:52:34 GMT -5
Never before joining Pulse did I realize how worked up people got over music statistics. Eh, the interwebz must be full of forums for all kinds of hobbies/topics that may seem painfully dull to some...but incredibly fascinating and exciting to others. The whole...acting as if an artist's accomplishments are our own/over-identifying with our favorite artist can be a bit scary sometimes...but it's not really that different from how people are about their favorite sports team (deeply emotionally invested in the achievements of a group of complete strangers.) |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 23, 2015 15:30:57 GMT -5
Never before joining Pulse did I realize how worked up people got over music statistics. Eh, the interwebz must be full of forums for all kinds of hobbies/topics that may seem painfully dull to some...but incredibly fascinating and exciting to others. The whole...acting as if an artist's accomplishments are our own/over-identifying with our favorite artist can be a bit scary sometimes...but it's not really that different from how people are about their favorite sports team (deeply emotionally invested in the achievements of a group of complete strangers.) Exactly. Truly don't get redseagulls post at all lol. WHY would he/one join a *chart/music forum and then question why people get 'worked up over music statistics'  Anyways, back to where things stand w/ UF and SYA and even all the other 10-14 week #s, it's ALL timing/luck. OSD just happened to luck out by getting those two extra weeks due to *lack of competition (and the formula in '96 worked to its favor). Some forget but WBT def. would've gotten 15 weeks if Carrie didn't dethrone WBT for 1 week. Also, if we had the formula that we have today there's a very good chance WBT would not have gotten 14 weeks. One could go in circles wondering what if this only hit #1 a few weeks sooner, of if this song/movie came out a month or whenever later etc etc...lol Point is, we'll *never know. Before SYA exploded, most were saying the only song that was its biggest threat was EI. Now, there's def. a possibility that it may go to #2 next week (which means besides SYA) 'that' did indeed end up the song to pull ahead of UF. One could say (based on airplay alone and other factors) that would of been enough to go to #1 and prevent UF from breaking the record. Or, like others have said, maybe SYA instantly killed the momentum/hype for UF coming 'this' close to breaking the record (affecting airplay, sales, streaming etc..) We'll also never know if RCA did a discount or attempted other dirty tricks if that would've made a difference. Bottom line...ALL an unknown. |
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ry4n
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Post by ry4n on Apr 23, 2015 15:37:22 GMT -5
"Bitch Better Better Have My Money" would be Rihanna's 14th #1 if "See You Again", "Uptown Funk", "Earned It", "Sugar", "Trap Queen", "Love Me Like You Do", "Thinking Out Loud", "Shut Up And Dance", "GDFR", "Somebody", "Want To Want Me", "Style", "One Last Time", "Chains", "Post To Be", and "FourFiveSeconds" didn't exist.
These "what if" scenarios can be fun, but also quite silly. At the end of the day, there's always going be competition of some sort.
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