Hot 100: 05/02/2015 - "See You Again" (2nd week)

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 13:52:38 GMT -5 Gary said:

There it is. Week 17 in the top 2. The first song ever to do that.

@markg94

Wonderful! Like I said, it's not THE record, but it's A deserving record. That deserves a bow-down of respect, one for each week:

[Dylan :)]

Omg, One Last Time jumped again! Going to request this and stream it all week

[Deleted]

So... I'm assuming Sugar is #4...? 'Cuz the article forgot to include it.

[badrobot]

That is one tight airplay top 4 -- has there have been such a positional discrepancy (Ellie is #4 on mediabase, #1 on BDS)?

Also, Ellie join Jewel and Goo Goo Dolls in having 2 airplay #1s without a Hot 100 #1.

[Dylan :)]

Want To Want Me up to #4 on iTunes!

[velaxti]

Apr 22, 2015 14:00:43 GMT -5 badrobot said:

That is one tight airplay top 4 -- has there have been such a positional discrepancy (Ellie is #4 on mediabase, #1 on BDS)?

Positional discrepancies as big as that (or bigger) probably happen all the time lower down the chart, as the AI gaps between songs get a lot lower. But in the top 5 or top 10 it must be very rare.

[popbox]

The top 2 record is cool, but it's depressing to now have confirmation that if SYA didn't exist UF would have tied the #1 record. Dammit, so close!

[Gary]

Last week in the top 2 for that song though. It is #3 in all three components as of week end. We know already that it will decline further than that in sales and airplay next week.


So yes, if the song above it did not exist or the timing of the movie was delayed by a coulpe weeks, it woud have tied the record but given the current decline, I don't think it would have broken it.

[brady47]

Wow, Ellie is so lucky that LMYLD managed to squeeze in 1 week at #1 on radio, I thought Earned It would leapfrog it, and that it was going to pull a Thinking Out Loud/Sugar by getting stuck at #2. If the tracking week ended 1 day later or 1 day earlier, she probably would have missed the top spot.

And there's only a 3 million AI difference between #1-#4 on radio songs?! That has to be the closest top 4 ever!

[brady47]

Apr 22, 2015 14:44:51 GMT -5 Gary said:

Last week in the top 2 for that song though. It is #3 in all three components as of week end. We know already that it will decline further than that in sales and airplay next week.


So yes, if the song above it did not exist or the timing of the movie was delayed by a coulpe weeks, it woud have tied the record but given the current decline, I don't think it would have broken it.

It very well could have broken it though - I have a feeling next week might be it's last week in the top 2.

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 14:00:43 GMT -5 badrobot said:

That is one tight airplay top 4 -- has there have been such a positional discrepancy (Ellie is #4 on mediabase, #1 on BDS)?

Beat me to it. I doubt this has ever happened before (though Kworb has only existed for a few years lol). Also, next week EI will probably jump to #1 with Ellie at #2. Would this be the first time ever that two songs from the same soundtrack occupied the top two spots of the airplay chart simultaneously?

Also, Ellie join Jewel and Goo Goo Dolls in having 2 airplay #1s without a Hot 100 #1.

But weren't the other two as a result of no commercial single being available and the rule in place at the time that such songs were not eligible for the Hot 100 or something? Because otherwise the songs from these bands were sure fire for #1 on the Hot 100 given their lengthy runs atop the airplay chart. (I still don't get what stopped artists/bands from releasing commercial singles at the time...)

[jenglisbe]

Apr 22, 2015 16:22:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Also, Ellie join Jewel and Goo Goo Dolls in having 2 airplay #1s without a Hot 100 #1.

But weren't the other two as a result of no commercial single being available and the rule in place at the time that such songs were not eligible for the Hot 100 or something? Because otherwise the songs from these bands were sure fire for #1 on the Hot 100 given their lengthy runs atop the airplay chart. (I still don't get what stopped artists/bands from releasing commercial singles at the time...)

I wouldn't say those songs were sure fire for #1 if they had been allowed to chart. It would take a lot of airplay to make up for 0 sales.

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 16:31:20 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Apr 22, 2015 16:22:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

But weren't the other two as a result of no commercial single being available and the rule in place at the time that such songs were not eligible for the Hot 100 or something? Because otherwise the songs from these bands were sure fire for #1 on the Hot 100 given their lengthy runs atop the airplay chart. (I still don't get what stopped artists/bands from releasing commercial singles at the time...)

I wouldn't say those songs were sure fire for #1 if they had been allowed to chart. It would take a lot of airplay to make up for 0 sales.

But didn't Aaliyah's "Try Again" get #1 on the Hot 100 without a commercial single?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Apr 22, 2015 16:22:18 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Would this be the first time ever that two songs from the same soundtrack occupied the top two spots of the airplay chart simultaneously?

I can't speak for Hot 100 airplay but Alanis and Goo Goo Dolls had the top 2 on pop in 1998 with songs from City of Angels.

[allow that]

There was a commercial single available for Jewel's Hot 100 Airplay #1's [they shared the same as an A side/B side actually].

Aaliyah Hot 100 #1 based on only Airplay wasn't until 2000 when fewer commercial singles were being released.

[ry4n]

Plus overall physical singles sales declined substantially in the 1999-2001 period.

[badrobot]

Jewel's 2 songs had one single (which is confusing), and Goo Goo Dolls had both their songs chart in the Hot 100 top ten right after the airplay switchover happened to allow them to chart. So, technically every song had a chance to hit #1 according to the rules at the time. This isn't as egregious as something like "Don't Speak" which had the double-whammy of no single and no airplay-only songs allowed.

[Gary]

Apr 22, 2015 15:07:29 GMT -5 brady47 said:

Apr 22, 2015 14:44:51 GMT -5 Gary said:

Last week in the top 2 for that song though. It is #3 in all three components as of week end. We know already that it will decline further than that in sales and airplay next week.


So yes, if the song above it did not exist or the timing of the movie was delayed by a coulpe weeks, it woud have tied the record but given the current decline, I don't think it would have broken it.

It very well could have broken it though - I have a feeling next week might be it's last week in the top 2.

Nah, this is the last not the next one.  It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now

[allow that]

Apr 22, 2015 17:11:17 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Jewel's 2 songs had one single (which is confusing), and Goo Goo Dolls had both their songs chart in the Hot 100 top ten right after the airplay switchover happened to allow them to chart. So, technically every song had a chance to hit #1 according to the rules at the time. This isn't as egregious as something like "Don't Speak" which had the double-whammy of no single and no airplay-only songs allowed.

"You Were Meant For Me" and "Slide" have accurate peaks.

"Foolish Games" was allowed to chart on the technicality that it was the B-Side to a previously released commercial single. The commercial single itself was out of print by then so it had minimal sales. Plus, it never got to appear as its own entry so to speak, but its peak is accurate enough.

"Iris" though very likely would have gone to #1 though. Yes, it appeared in the Hot 100 top 10 the first week airplay only singles were allowed to chart. However, that was December and it peaked in the early summer so... the fact that it was still there at all many months later shows just how high it likely would have soared.

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 17:57:15 GMT -5 Gary said:

Apr 22, 2015 15:07:29 GMT -5 brady47 said:

It very well could have broken it though - I have a feeling next week might be it's last week in the top 2.

Nah, this is the last not the next one.  It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now

So what? Timber, Thrift Shop, Rude, etc. spent some weeks at #1 on the Hot 100 without being #1 on any of the three metrics. Earned It is still too far behind on streaming and Trap Queen is too far behind in airplay. They won't pass UF this week.

Prediction for 5/9:

1. See You Again (50% lead)
2. Uptown Funk!
3. Trap Queen
4. Earned It
5. Sugar
6. Shut Up And Dance
7. Love Me Like You Do
8. GDFR
9. Want To Want Me
10. Somebody

[imbondz]

Apr 22, 2015 18:04:29 GMT -5 allow that said:

Apr 22, 2015 17:11:17 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Jewel's 2 songs had one single (which is confusing), and Goo Goo Dolls had both their songs chart in the Hot 100 top ten right after the airplay switchover happened to allow them to chart. So, technically every song had a chance to hit #1 according to the rules at the time. This isn't as egregious as something like "Don't Speak" which had the double-whammy of no single and no airplay-only songs allowed.

"You Were Meant For Me" and "Slide" have accurate peaks.

"Foolish Games" was allowed to chart on the technicality that it was the B-Side to a previously released commercial single. The commercial single itself was out of print by then so it had minimal sales. Plus, it never got to appear as its own entry so to speak, but its peak is accurate enough.

"Iris" though very likely would have gone to #1 though. Yes, it appeared in the Hot 100 top 10 the first week airplay only singles were allowed to chart. However, that was December and it peaked in the early summer so... the fact that it was still there at all many months later shows just how high it likely would have soared.

I believe Iris 'debuted' at #6 waaaay after it peaked on radio. So no question Iris would have went to #1. 18 weeks at #1 on radio. Still crazy long.

[Gary]

Apr 22, 2015 18:42:32 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 22, 2015 17:57:15 GMT -5 Gary said:

Nah, this is the last not the next one.  It is out of the top 2 on all 3 metrics even now

So what? Timber, Thrift Shop, Rude, etc. spent some weeks at #1 on the Hot 100 without being #1 on any of the three metrics. Earned It is still too far behind on streaming and Trap Queen is too far behind in airplay. They won't pass UF this week.

Prediction for 5/9:

1. See You Again (50% lead)
2. Uptown Funk!
3. Trap Queen
4. Earned It
5. Sugar
6. Shut Up And Dance
7. Love Me Like You Do
8. GDFR
9. Want To Want Me
10. Somebody

Now that you have said it, you are probably right, I stand corrected.

We know that this week it is #3 sales, #3 airplay and #3 streaming which is good enough for #2

By the end of the week it may get passed by two others on airplay ad be #5. It is #8 on iTunes at this momet, It could either hold that or decline throughout the week. Not up on the formula but would that be good for #2?

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 18:52:32 GMT -5 Gary said:

Apr 22, 2015 18:42:32 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

So what? Timber, Thrift Shop, Rude, etc. spent some weeks at #1 on the Hot 100 without being #1 on any of the three metrics. Earned It is still too far behind on streaming and Trap Queen is too far behind in airplay. They won't pass UF this week.

Prediction for 5/9:

1. See You Again (50% lead)
2. Uptown Funk!
3. Trap Queen
4. Earned It
5. Sugar
6. Shut Up And Dance
7. Love Me Like You Do
8. GDFR
9. Want To Want Me
10. Somebody

Now that you have said it, you are probably right, I stand corrected.

We know that this week it is #3 sales, #3 airplay and #3 streaming which is good enough for #2

By the end of the week it may get passed by two others on airplay ad be #5. It is #8 on iTunes at this momet, It could either hold that or decline throughout the week. Not up on the formula but would that be good for #2?

Well Trap Queen has a bit of a lead in streaming and sales, but that probably won't make up for how far behind it still is on radio play. Earned It will be ahead on sales and radio but not by very much, and with UF being almost 4 million streams ahead this week, that gap probably won't close enough for EI to pass UF on the Hot 100 next week. Sugar has a marginal lead in sales and radio now but is way below in streaming so it won't be higher than #5 next week. SUAD is of course still pretty far behind in radio and very behind in streaming which the sales lead won't make up for. The week after that, I can see UF falling out of the top 2 in favor of EI, TQ, or possibly SUAD. It's pretty obvious at this point that UF won't be returning to #1 (unless some viral video comes out unexpectedly?). I hope EI can still somehow sneak in a week at #1 but it looks like it's peaking and SYA will prevent EI from taking over...unless it pulls a "Rude Boy" and suddenly starts getting big declines in sales and now streaming after its third of fourth week at #1 letting EI squeeze in a week at #1. But I wouldn't bet on EI being #1 at this point. The song with the best chance now IMO is SUAD, but it's gonna be at least 4 more weeks before that one will grow enough (and have a sales impact from being performed on The Voice on 5/12).

The formula might be something like sales/10 + streaming/750 + radio audience/7500 but we don't know for sure...

[allow that]

Apr 22, 2015 18:47:52 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Apr 22, 2015 18:04:29 GMT -5 allow that said:

"You Were Meant For Me" and "Slide" have accurate peaks.

"Foolish Games" was allowed to chart on the technicality that it was the B-Side to a previously released commercial single. The commercial single itself was out of print by then so it had minimal sales. Plus, it never got to appear as its own entry so to speak, but its peak is accurate enough.

"Iris" though very likely would have gone to #1 though. Yes, it appeared in the Hot 100 top 10 the first week airplay only singles were allowed to chart. However, that was December and it peaked in the early summer so... the fact that it was still there at all many months later shows just how high it likely would have soared.

I believe Iris 'debuted' at #6 waaaay after it peaked on radio. So no question Iris would have went to #1. 18 weeks at #1 on radio. Still crazy long.

It would have competed directly with sales monster "The Boy Is Mine" so a #2 peak wouldn't be out of the question either, but we'll never know.

[Gary]

Apr 22, 2015 19:09:40 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 22, 2015 18:52:32 GMT -5 Gary said:

Now that you have said it, you are probably right, I stand corrected.

We know that this week it is #3 sales, #3 airplay and #3 streaming which is good enough for #2

By the end of the week it may get passed by two others on airplay ad be #5. It is #8 on iTunes at this momet, It could either hold that or decline throughout the week. Not up on the formula but would that be good for #2?

Well Trap Queen has a bit of a lead in streaming and sales, but that probably won't make up for how far behind it still is on radio play. Earned It will be ahead on sales and radio but not by very much, and with UF being almost 4 million streams ahead this week, that gap probably won't close enough for EI to pass UF on the Hot 100 next week. Sugar has a marginal lead in sales and radio now but is way below in streaming so it won't be higher than #5 next week. SUAD is of course still pretty far behind in radio and very behind in streaming which the sales lead won't make up for. The week after that, I can see UF falling out of the top 2 in favor of EI, TQ, or possibly SUAD. It's pretty obvious at this point that UF won't be returning to #1 (unless some viral video comes out unexpectedly?). I hope EI can still somehow sneak in a week at #1 but it looks like it's peaking and SYA will prevent EI from taking over...unless it pulls a "Rude Boy" and suddenly starts getting big declines in sales and now streaming after its third of fourth week at #1 letting EI squeeze in a week at #1. But I wouldn't bet on EI being #1 at this point. The song with the best chance now IMO is SUAD, but it's gonna be at least 4 more weeks before that one will grow enough (and have a sales impact from being performed on The Voice on 5/12).

The formula might be something like sales/10 + streaming/750 + radio audience/7500 but we don't know for sure...

Ok then...we will see

[85la]

Has anyone figured out what happened with Earned It and TOL last week, with the former supposedly increasing in points but backtracking 4-6 behind TOL, which stayed at #5 but not showing any points increase. Was it explained in the Chart Beat Chat or anything like that, or is Billboard just gonna sweep the error under the rug, pretend like it never happened?

[ss8]

So UF wouldve tied OSD. I have a feeling Earned It may jump into the top 2 next week. The streaming gains (and esp radio gains) plus sales staying stable make it look likely. Theres still 3-4 days left and I think it should be enough time for EI to do it. If EI replaces UF at #2 next week, that means in all likelihood it wouldve been the song that prevented UF from breaking the record. If UF stays at #2 next week it would've officially been the longest #1 ever (if not for SYA).

[Deleted]

Apr 22, 2015 19:46:20 GMT -5 85la said:

Has anyone figured out what happened with Earned It and TOL last week, with the former supposedly increasing in points but backtracking 4-6 behind TOL, which stayed at #5 but not showing any points increase. Was it explained in the Chart Beat Chat or anything like that, or is Billboard just gonna sweep the error under the rug, pretend like it never happened?

LMLYD also fell pretty hard. They both fell because of a big unexpected decrease in streaming. I think there might've been something about the streaming of the two Fifty Shades Of Grey songs hence their fall in overall Hot 100 points.

[ss8]

Apr 22, 2015 19:48:49 GMT -5 ss8 said:

So UF wouldve tied OSD. I have a feeling Earned It may jump into the top 2 next week. The streaming gains (and esp radio gains) plus sales staying stable make it look likely. Theres still 3-4 days left and I think it should be enough time for EI to do it. If EI replaces UF at #2 next week, that means in all likelihood it wouldve been the song that prevented UF from breaking the record. If UF stays at #2 next week it would've officially been the longest #1 ever (if not for SYA).

Mark G surprised u liked my post/agreed with me lol ? Thought u were gonna say UF *def will be at #2 again next week. I'd say it's 50/50ish BUT UF is reeally starting to collapse esp on radio while EI is gaining w/ both radio and esp. streaming. If it was Sat/Sun I'd be more like 60/40 or 70/30. Again, with 4 full more days left and the free-fall UF is now dealing with, there's enough time for EI (basically the only possible #2 contender for next week) to leapfrog UF. The fact it jumped 3 notches this week is key behind my theory/predection. 

[85la]

Apr 22, 2015 19:52:33 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

Apr 22, 2015 19:46:20 GMT -5 85la said:

Has anyone figured out what happened with Earned It and TOL last week, with the former supposedly increasing in points but backtracking 4-6 behind TOL, which stayed at #5 but not showing any points increase. Was it explained in the Chart Beat Chat or anything like that, or is Billboard just gonna sweep the error under the rug, pretend like it never happened?

LMLYD also fell pretty hard. They both fell because of a big unexpected decrease in streaming. I think there might've been something about the streaming of the two Fifty Shades Of Grey songs hence their fall in overall Hot 100 points.

But Earned It still had a bullet, which means a net increase in points, no? I'm thinking the bullet was given in error, because it also lost in digital sales, and I don't think its airplay gains were enough to offset the other two. But the bullet still shows, why haven't they taken it away if it's such a simple error to correct? A mystery...