Billboard Hot 100: 09/12/15

[imbondz]

Aug 28, 2015 12:09:22 GMT -5 Gary said:

In 1998 this was a "singles" chart, so it was still measuring the most popular "singles" in the way it always had. That doesn't make the chart more or less credible because it was accurately doing what it was designed to do.

Now however, it is a popular songs chart rather than a singles chart.


I think we might be blaming the chart for the changing market. Where they used to mean the same thing, the difference in the meanings between "single" and "popular song" were clearly different in 1998.

I'm not sure I agree that it wasn't a popular songs chart back then tho too. We didn't have as many outlets to consume music so buying a single, watching MTV, or radio were it. Whatever was popular sold singles.

[badrobot]

Singles almost always had 2 tracks. It could be an instrumental, a remix, another song from the same album, or an unreleased song (where the term "B-side" comes from).

Generally they did not plan for the b-side to become a single too, but sometimes plans change or a song catches on unexpectedly.

Singles often got deleted to allow them to briefly chart and then become scarce to encourage people to buy the album ("my heart will go on" was a great example of this).

Pre-1998, for big artists, it was not uncommon to withhold a single entirely if they feared the song would not chart high. For example, Mariah Carey's "forever" was withheld because they didn't want to break a streak of #1s. Back then, a low charting single was often considered worse than being withheld and not charting at all.

[imbondz]

Aug 28, 2015 19:46:22 GMT -5 felipe said:

But why would a label put two singles on the same disc? Did they charge more for that as opposed to "regular" one single discs? Because otherwise it's like they deliberately trying to get people not to buy the album.

Wow. This makes me feel really old. Ha.

[Gary]

Aug 28, 2015 21:04:16 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Aug 28, 2015 12:09:22 GMT -5 Gary said:

In 1998 this was a "singles" chart, so it was still measuring the most popular "singles" in the way it always had. That doesn't make the chart more or less credible because it was accurately doing what it was designed to do.

Now however, it is a popular songs chart rather than a singles chart.


I think we might be blaming the chart for the changing market. Where they used to mean the same thing, the difference in the meanings between "single" and "popular song" were clearly different in 1998.

I'm not sure I agree that it wasn't a popular songs chart back then tho too. We didn't have as many outlets to consume music so buying a single, watching MTV, or radio were it. Whatever was popular sold singles.

Some of the biggest songs of the decade never charted. When the most popular songs in the country fail to appear on the Hot 100. It would be tough to call it a popular songs chart.

[imbondz]

Aug 28, 2015 21:13:01 GMT -5 Gary said:

Aug 28, 2015 21:04:16 GMT -5 imbondz said:

I'm not sure I agree that it wasn't a popular songs chart back then tho too. We didn't have as many outlets to consume music so buying a single, watching MTV, or radio were it. Whatever was popular sold singles.

Some of the biggest songs of the decade never charted. When the most popular songs in the country fail to appear on the Hot 100. It would be tough to call it a popular songs chart.

Gotcha. Misunderstood. Yes I agree then.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Wasn't You Were Meant For Me/Foolish Games released when Foolish Games became a single? Did the single have the new remix of both songs on it or was it the original album track? I ask because Foolish Games was (as we all know) remixed for the Batman + Robin soundtrack, which came out in mid-to-late 1997 (3Q?) so I can't imagine that remix being available earlier than that just to exist as a b-side for You Were Meant For Me.

Wikipedia states the following:

A CD single for the song was not issued in the United States. However, a re-released version of the "You Were Meant for Me" single CD had a hidden bonus track of the single version of "Foolish Games".

Looking at the You Were Meant For Me wiki entry, it turns out the CD single was originally listed as You Were Meant For Me with the album version of Foolish Games as the b-side, but when Foolish Games remix was released, the CD single was re-released with the new Foolish Games as a *hidden track*.

Tricky!

[felipe]

So they re-released YWMFM CD single with the Foolish Games remix instead of issuing a Foolish Games CD single. I'm finding it hard to follow the concept but OK. lol

Unrelated, but what are the chances of What do you mean, Downtown and Wildest Dreams all hitting the top 10 on the 09/19 chart? When was the last time we had two top 10 debuts?

[Ravi]

JB's new single isn't debuting at #1. OD's single had bigger ratio to CFMF and CFMF had sold 134k that week, while next week it will sell around 105-110k. So I'm thinking 200-250k for WDYM.

Top-10 debut is locked. With some Airplay and decent streaming, it might just have enough for a Top-5 debut.

[felipe]

But JB has a lyric video on youtube when 1D had nothing. Isn't streaming a bigger factor than sales?

And are Downtown and Wildest Dreams expected to be in the top 10 as well?

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

I think it's more than funny that NO ONE have ever talked about Adele's upcoming first single, but instead, they just push her album as a whole to the center of spotlight and I wonder why..
Why isn't it possible that she may or may not drop her first single any time soon if the album's coming November? Why isn't it possible that it can debut at no.1 due to her overwhelming fan base (honestly I won't be surprised if the first single from the album 25 is gonna be selling 600,000+ the first week even the digital market is shrinking badly)?
Is it that SHE WON'T RELEASE ANY SINGLE BEFORE THE ALBUM IS OUT? That does not make sense.. but it's so weird that everyone's been talking about when she's dropping that album instead of the first single.. Isn't the first single gonna be out first but why there's no news about when is it gonna happen?

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 28, 2015 12:49:37 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Aug 28, 2015 12:24:24 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I'm pretty sure The Hills was officially released as a single before CFMF. That being said, I hope The Hills can somehow make it to #1. It would be only the second instance (the other one being What's My Name/Only Girl (In The World)) where a single reached #1 after its follow-up single...

Wasn't that the case with The Way You Move/Hey Ya?

Weren't they released at the same time from the double album? TWYM was the single from Speakerboxx and HY was the single from The Love Below.

[Kris]

Mediabase 08/29/2015

TOP 10

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 185.065 (- 0.929)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 164.946 (- 2.826)
3. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 144.506 (+ 0.588)
4. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 127.082 (+ 1.956)
5. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 115.170 (- 1.162) ▲
6. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 114.337 (- 3.186) ▼
7. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 111.462 (- 0.231)
8. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 103.019 (+ 0.669)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 90.970 (+ 0.867) ▲
10. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 88.523 (- 1.898) ▼
11. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 88.002 (- 0.011)
12. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 86.282 (+ 2.027) ▲
13. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 85.971 (- 0.908) ▼
14. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 80.793 (- 1.301)
15. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 73.592 (+ 3.359)
16. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 69.217 (- 0.444)
17. SAM HUNT - House Party: 66.492 (+ 0.446)
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 65.309 (+ 0.281)
19. DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 62.831 (+ 0.654)
20. THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 62.787 (+ 0.763)

CURIOSIDADES

X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 46.897 (+ 0.726)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 42.368 (+ 0.439)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 38.606 (+ 0.452)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 37.351 (+ 0.778)
ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 36.739 (+ 0.732)
FETTY WAP-679 f/Remy Boyz...: 36.100 (+ 0.874)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 35.632 (- 0.133)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 32.007 (- 0.101)
5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 31.420 (+ 0.189)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 30.857 (+ 1.130)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 28.840 (- 0.077)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 20.387 (+ 0.218)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 19.670 (- 5.992)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 19.194 (+ 0.022)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 18.710 (- 0.880)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 18.472 (+ 0.224)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 18.471 (+ 2.832)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 18.219 (+ 0.357)
JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 17.853
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 15.854 (+ 0.543)
DRAKE - Back To Back: 14.916 (+ 0.297)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 14.142 (+ 3.547)
NICK JONAS - Levels: 10.448 (- 1.270)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 8.665 (+ 0.490)
NELLY - The Fix f/Jeremih: 5.771 (+ 0.323)
THE BAND PERRY - Live Forever: 4.731 (+ 0.016)
MAJOR LAZER - Powerful f/Ellie Goulding: 3.268

[Enigma.]

Aug 29, 2015 6:12:56 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Aug 28, 2015 12:49:37 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Wasn't that the case with The Way You Move/Hey Ya?

Weren't they released at the same time from the double album? TWYM was the single from Speakerboxx and HY was the single from The Love Below.

I just took a look at the weeks on chart paragraph when TWYM reached #1.. It charted before Hey Ya.

[areyoureadytojump]

Mackelmore & Bieber both have radio deals.

[areyoureadytojump]

Aug 29, 2015 2:52:23 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

I think it's more than funny that NO ONE have ever talked about Adele's upcoming first single, but instead, they just push her album as a whole to the center of spotlight and I wonder why..
Why isn't it possible that she may or may not drop her first single any time soon if the album's coming November? Why isn't it possible that it can debut at no.1 due to her overwhelming fan base (honestly I won't be surprised if the first single from the album 25 is gonna be selling 600,000+ the first week even the digital market is shrinking badly)?
Is it that SHE WON'T RELEASE ANY SINGLE BEFORE THE ALBUM IS OUT? That does not make sense.. but it's so weird that everyone's been talking about when she's dropping that album instead of the first single.. Isn't the first single gonna be out first but why there's no news about when is it gonna happen?

I would expect Adele's new single to be out in September/October.

[Future Captain]

Aug 28, 2015 21:53:08 GMT -5 Ravi said:

JB's new single isn't debuting at #1. OD's single had bigger ratio to CFMF and CFMF had sold 134k that week, while next week it will sell around 105-110k. So I'm thinking 200-250k for WDYM.

Top-10 debut is locked. With some Airplay and decent streaming, it might just have enough for a Top-5 debut.

Lol, no. You're underestimating the sales and streaming too much. Biebs gonna open with at least 300k in sales, that's for sure. Why? Well, he got the VMA performance, and I heard the MV is going to drop Monday after VMA. Not to mention the friggin lyric video got 8 million views in 1 day, add that with on-demand streams that's going to be big for sure, Bieber might as well debut at #1.

[wjr15]

My Hot 100 Prediction:

1. Can't Feel My Face
2. Cheerleader
3. The Hills
4. Watch Me
5. Lean On
6. Good For You
7. Fight Song
8. 679
9. Locked Away
10. Drag Me Down or Photograph

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 29, 2015 2:52:23 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

I think it's more than funny that NO ONE have ever talked about Adele's upcoming first single, but instead, they just push her album as a whole to the center of spotlight and I wonder why..
Why isn't it possible that she may or may not drop her first single any time soon if the album's coming November? Why isn't it possible that it can debut at no.1 due to her overwhelming fan base (honestly I won't be surprised if the first single from the album 25 is gonna be selling 600,000+ the first week even the digital market is shrinking badly)?
Is it that SHE WON'T RELEASE ANY SINGLE BEFORE THE ALBUM IS OUT? That does not make sense.. but it's so weird that everyone's been talking about when she's dropping that album instead of the first single.. Isn't the first single gonna be out first but why there's no news about when is it gonna happen?

because if we get the album release window ww have a good guess for the single release and if 25 is actually coming in November then I'm saying in 4 weeks well have the 1st single

[badrobot]

I'm sure when Adele's single has a release date and we know more about it, people will talk. I don't think it's inclined to have the same reaction as a Bieber or One Direction or Taylor song though -- Adele's audience is not based around a core group of teenage hardcore stans.

[85la]

Aug 29, 2015 15:07:30 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I'm sure when Adele's single has a release date and we know more about it, people will talk. I don't think it's inclined to have the same reaction as a Bieber or One Direction or Taylor song though -- Adele's audience is not based around a core group of teenage hardcore stans.

I would say it could absolutely have an even bigger reaction than any of the people you mentioned, solely due to the massive reach her last album had, selling twice as many copies as any of them.

[House Lannister]

Aug 25, 2015 14:36:00 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

I really hope Cheerleader can make it to #1 on song of the summer chart. It's no fun to have a depressing song about death as the #1 song of the summer

Dunno about depressing.  I think See You Again is a tribute to Paul Walker for his work on the Fast and Furious series, at least that is what I think they were going with in putting that song for Fast and Furious 7.


But I think it's pretty likely that Cheerleader takes the crown as the song of summer.  Considering that Cheerleader may fall from 1-2 and stay there next weekend (presuming that another song doesn't knock them down further) and See You Again continues to dip outside the top 10, I'd be shocked if Cheerleader didn't hold the crown when the chart is officially locked in.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 29, 2015 16:10:17 GMT -5 85la said:

Aug 29, 2015 15:07:30 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I'm sure when Adele's single has a release date and we know more about it, people will talk. I don't think it's inclined to have the same reaction as a Bieber or One Direction or Taylor song though -- Adele's audience is not based around a core group of teenage hardcore stans.

I would say it could absolutely have an even bigger reaction than any of the people you mentioned, solely due to the massive reach her last album had, selling twice as many copies as any of them.

That's what I've been thinkin about!!! It's more than weird why mostly artists announce the date of first single as first thing while Adele acts as if she's never gonna release another single in U.S...

[badrobot]

I should've clarified. I meant first week reaction. If the Adele song is good it could easily be a multi week #1, but I highly doubt it would debut there.

[House Lannister]

What did we determine was the formula for the Hot 100? Trying to hone into more accurate predictions and wanting to double check my numbers.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 28, 2015 12:22:33 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I do think Billboard was much slower to adapt to market changes in the mid-late 90s, though.

For all the complaints today about formula tweaks today, they are at least much more cognizant of a need to constantly re-evaluate criteria to keep the chart in sync with market changes. At least today, I think we won't ever look back and say "wow that song didn't even chart and it was huge." At worst, the chart just maybe under- or over-emphasizes certain songs based on the criteria at the time. (For example, imagine if YouTube/streaming had been included during Gaga's heyday when her videos were "events" -- she might have close to 10 #1 singles instead of just 3 -- but at least all her hits charted, unlike Don't Speak or Lovefool.)

I sometimes wonder, though, had airplay-only singles been allowed to chart throughout the 90s, would people complain in current times about how their Hot 100 peaks weren't representative of their actual popularity. In other words, it was sort of a can't-win situation for Billboard.

[felipe]

Aug 29, 2015 20:08:00 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I sometimes wonder, though, had airplay-only singles been allowed to chart throughout the 90s, would people complain in current times about how their Hot 100 peaks weren't representative of their actual popularity. In other words, it was sort of a can't-win situation for Billboard.

I guess it is a can't-win situation for Billboard. If your going to measure something as vague as "popularity" with a highly subjective formula, there's no way to get it 100% right.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 29, 2015 18:02:51 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

Aug 25, 2015 14:36:00 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

I really hope Cheerleader can make it to #1 on song of the summer chart. It's no fun to have a depressing song about death as the #1 song of the summer

Dunno about depressing.  I think See You Again is a tribute to Paul Walker for his work on the Fast and Furious series, at least that is what I think they were going with in putting that song for Fast and Furious 7.


But I think it's pretty likely that Cheerleader takes the crown as the song of summer.  Considering that Cheerleader may fall from 1-2 and stay there next weekend (presuming that another song doesn't knock them down further) and See You Again continues to dip outside the top 10, I'd be shocked if Cheerleader didn't hold the crown when the chart is officially locked in.

According to past years, the chart will likely be locked in next week (9/12/2015).. which means no.1 will be a cutthroat race with a lot of suspence going on next week if so..

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 29, 2015 9:57:57 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

My Hot 100 Prediction:

1. Can't Feel My Face
2. Cheerleader
3. The Hills
4. Watch Me
5. Lean On
6. Good For You
7. Fight Song
8. 679
9. Locked Away
10. Drag Me Down or Photograph

Haha! I'm all wet for it's like the first time ever in a million years do I feel sad about "trap queen" dropping out of its tier.. I almost fell in love with his vocal performance in this song and it's SO CUTE, MEMORABLE AND UNIQUE as I like it.
Glad to see OMI and the Weeknd locking the top 3, the latter stands a chance getting the top 2 spots simultaneously like Amethyst did in 2014

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 30, 2015 0:46:53 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Aug 29, 2015 9:57:57 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

My Hot 100 Prediction:

1. Can't Feel My Face
2. Cheerleader
3. The Hills
4. Watch Me
5. Lean On
6. Good For You
7. Fight Song
8. 679
9. Locked Away
10. Drag Me Down or Photograph

Haha! I'm all wet for it's like the first time ever in a million years

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 08/30/15

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 184.707 (- 0.358)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 161.311 (- 3.635)
3. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 145.670 (+ 1.164)
4. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 128.836 (+ 1.754)
5. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 113.624 (- 1.546)
6. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 111.386 (- 0.076) ▲
7. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 111.323 (- 3.014) ▼
8. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 104.641 (+ 1.622)
9. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 91.300 (+ 0.330)
10. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 88.254 (+ 0.252) ▲
11. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 88.078 (+ 1.796) ▲
12. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 87.593 (- 0.930) ▼
13. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 84.366 (- 1.605)
14. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 80.188 (- 0.605)
15. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 77.102 (+ 3.510)
16. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 67.981 (- 1.236)
17. SAM HUNT - House Party: 66.713 (+ 0.221)
18. FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 65.642 (+ 0.333)
19. DUSTIN LYNCH - Hell Of A Night: 63.856 (+ 1.025)
20. THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 63.169 (+ 0.382)

X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 47.615 (+ 0.718)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 43.311 (+ 0.943)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 38.799 (+ 0.193)
ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 37.736 (+ 0.997)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 37.402 (+ 0.051)
FETTY WAP-679 f/Remy Boyz...: 37.180 (+ 1.080)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 36.488 (+ 0.856)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 32.387 (+ 1.530)
ADAM LAMBERT - Ghost Town: 31.977 (- 0.030)
5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 31.369 (- 0.051)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 29.207 (+ 0.367)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Downtown: 22.729 (+ 4.258)
JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 22.677 (+ 4.824)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 20.978 (+ 1.308)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 20.655 (+ 0.268)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 19.107 (- 0.087)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 18.923 (+ 0.704)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 18.775 (+ 0.303)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 18.771 (+ 4.629)
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 16.410 (+ 0.556)
DRAKE - Back To Back: 14.643 (- 0.273)
NICK JONAS - Levels: 11.493 (+ 1.045)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 9.376 (+ 0.711)
NELLY - The Fix f/Jeremih: 6.315 (+ 0.544)
MAJOR LAZER - Powerful f/Ellie Goulding: 3.567 (+ 0.299)