Billboard Hot 100: 03/26/2016

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 3:46:15 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Mar 9, 2016 10:09:21 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Early Predictions:
1. Work (=)
2. Love Yourself (=)
3. Stressed Out (=)
4. My House (=)
5. 7 Years (+4)
6. Sorry (-1)
7. PILLOWTALK (-1)
8. Me, Myself & I (-1)
9. Cake By The Ocean (+1)
10. Hello (+1)
11. I Took A Pill In Ibiza (+3)
12. Roses (+1)
13. Hands To Myself (+2)
14. One Call Away (+2)
15. NO (Debut)
16. Down In The DM (+2)
17. Stitches (=)
18. Work From Home (-6)
19. Don't (=)
20. 2 Phones (+5)
21. Jumpman (+1)
22. Never Forget You (+12)
23. Oui (+4)
24. The Hills (-3)
25. Piece By Piece (-17)
38. Middle (+12)
61. YOUTH (-3)
71. New Romantics (Re-Entry)

Mostly agree..... except that I think ITAPII will likely jump ahead of Hello and grab the #10 spot.

How? I don't see how ITAPII's numbers are impressive enough to jump from 14-10

[Ravi]

Mar 10, 2016 7:52:32 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Mar 10, 2016 3:46:15 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Mostly agree..... except that I think ITAPII will likely jump ahead of Hello and grab the #10 spot.

How? I don't see how ITAPII's numbers are impressive enough to jump from 14-10

This week Hello will have 20M lead on Airplay and 1M lead on Streaming over ITAPII, which will be easily neutralized by 30M+ sales advantage that the latter will have.

Preliminary estimate:

ITAPII: 65 - 60 - 9 = 20,700
HELLO: 35 - 80 -10 = 20,200

Though the difference is only minimal, so there is a chance that Hello is ahead. See how it looks later when I post full predictions chart.

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 8:24:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Mar 10, 2016 7:52:32 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

How? I don't see how ITAPII's numbers are impressive enough to jump from 14-10

This week Hello will have 20M lead on Airplay and 1M lead on Streaming over ITAPII, which will be easily neutralized by 30M+ sales advantage that the latter will have.

Preliminary estimate:

ITAPII: 65 - 60 - 9 = 20,700
HELLO: 35 - 80 -10 = 20,200

Though the difference is only minimal, so there is a chance that Hello is ahead. See how it looks later when I post full predictions chart.

Are the numbers of 65, 60, and 9 from before dividing or afterwards? Also, how are you getting those streaming numbers and where? What all counts towards the streaming?

[Ravi]

Mar 10, 2016 8:37:29 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Mar 10, 2016 8:24:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

This week Hello will have 20M lead on Airplay and 1M lead on Streaming over ITAPII, which will be easily neutralized by 30M+ sales advantage that the latter will have.

Preliminary estimate:

ITAPII: 65 - 60 - 9 = 20,700
HELLO: 35 - 80 -10 = 20,200

Though the difference is only minimal, so there is a chance that Hello is ahead. See how it looks later when I post full predictions chart.

Are the numbers of 65, 60, and 9 from before dividing or afterwards? Also, how are you getting those streaming numbers and where? What all counts towards the streaming?

65k sales + 60M airplay + 9.0M streaming....... these are divided by 9,10 and 1.2 respectively.

Streaming projections are based on last week data and the trend -

For example, Hello had ~10.5M streams last week, and it is looking at a slight decrease on both Spotify and Youtube.

ITAPII had ~8.8M streams last week, and is looking at a small increase on both Spotify and Youtube.

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 8:51:20 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Mar 10, 2016 8:37:29 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Are the numbers of 65, 60, and 9 from before dividing or afterwards? Also, how are you getting those streaming numbers and where? What all counts towards the streaming?

65k sales + 60M airplay + 9.0M streaming....... these are divided by 9,10 and 1.2 respectively.

Streaming projections are based on last week data and the trend -

For example, Hello had ~10.5M streams last week, and it is looking at a slight decrease on both Spotify and Youtube.

ITAPII had ~8.8M streams last week, and is looking at a small increase on both Spotify and Youtube.

Ok. I remember your post from a couple weeks about the dividing formula, but I just wanted to ask about the numbers and the streaming so I can have better predictions.

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 8:51:20 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Mar 10, 2016 8:37:29 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Are the numbers of 65, 60, and 9 from before dividing or afterwards? Also, how are you getting those streaming numbers and where? What all counts towards the streaming?

65k sales + 60M airplay + 9.0M streaming....... these are divided by 9,10 and 1.2 respectively.

Streaming projections are based on last week data and the trend -

For example, Hello had ~10.5M streams last week, and it is looking at a slight decrease on both Spotify and Youtube.

ITAPII had ~8.8M streams last week, and is looking at a small increase on both Spotify and Youtube.

Tomorrow I will have to test it out since I am terrible at predicting streaming >

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 14:49:19 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Broccoli - sorry to keep ribbing you, it's meant with affection. You're a smart fella and one of the highlights of this board.

Oh, trust me, Broccoli can be a real jerk as shown with the walker9 situation last year. Just make sure you don't on speak on his/her behalf, he/she gets pissy about that. He/she may be real smart when it comes to calculating numbers/predictions, but broccoli can also be a real asshole.

[badrobot]

^Let's not do that. If you don't like someone, just ignore them. We can all be civil and friendly. "Let it go..."

[bat1990]

Mar 10, 2016 10:45:22 GMT -5 badrobot said:

^Let's not do that. If you don't like someone, just ignore them. We can all be civil and friendly. "Let it go..."

I have that poster on block, so I can't even see the incivility

[Daniel Collins]

2016/03/10

*** = dropped or added a format

1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 202.022 (-0.089)
2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 182.292 (-1.018)
3. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 145.396 (-2.489)
4. RIHANNA - Work f/Drake: 143.872 (+1.045)
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 137.626 (+1.101)
6. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 112.452 (+1.116)
7. ADELE - Hello: 106.040 (-2.776)
8. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 102.149 (+2.428***)
9. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 98.317 (-1.033)
10. SELENA GOMEZ - Hands To Myself: 97.329 (+1.055) ▲

11. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 96.413 (-0.782) ▼
12. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 82.215 (+0.766)
13. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 77.070 (+2.655)
14. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 71.807 (+0.394) ▲
15. ADELE - When We Were Young: 71.510 (-1.223) ▼
16. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 69.670 (-1.161)
17. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 68.869 (+1.026) ▲
18. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 68.308 (-1.246) ▼
19. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 66.216 (+0.421) ▲
20. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 65.567 (+0.596) ▲

21. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 64.649 (-2.543) ▼
22. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 63.444 (-0.703) ▲
23. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 62.821 (-2.096) ▼
24. COLE SWINDELL - You Should Be Here: 60.723 (+0.613)
25. BRETT ELDREDGE - Drunk On Your Love: 59.929 (+0.305)
26. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 58.622 (-0.940)
27. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 56.884 (+1.486)
28. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Confession: 54.677 (+0.244) ▲
29. MEGHAN TRAINOR - NO: 53.908 (+8.307) ▲
30. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 52.926 (-1.568) ▼

31. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 52.819 (-0.161) ▼
32. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 52.810 (+0.386)
33. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 52.153 (-0.715) ▼
34. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 51.256 (-0.234) ▼
35. RASCAL FLATTS - I Like The Sound Of That: 50.766 (+0.524) ▲
36. DAYA - Hide Away: 50.379 (-1.043) ▼
37. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 50.367 (+0.298)
38. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 48.764 (-0.505)
39. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 48.464 (-0.441)
40. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 48.171 (-2.554) ▼

41. ROBIN SCHULZ - Sugar f/Francesco Yates: 48.029 (-0.313) ▼
42. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 45.390 (-0.167) ▲
43. OLD DOMINION - Snapback: 45.179 (+0.649) ▲
44. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 44.893 (-0.819) ▼
45. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 44.688 (-0.759) ▼
46. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 44.182 (-0.574) ▼
47. BEYONCE - Formation: 44.159 (-0.536) ▼
48. JEREMIH - Oui: 43.761 (-0.406)
49. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 43.093 (-0.273)
50. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 42.569 (-0.581) ▲

51. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 42.412 (-0.908) ▼
52. CHRIS STAPLETON - Nobody To Blame: 41.659 (+0.290) ▲
53. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 41.319 (-1.265) ▼
54. MAREN MORRIS - My Church: 40.208 (+0.403) ▲
55. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 40.116 (-0.795) ▼
56. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 39.978 (+0.305)
57. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 37.848 (-0.494)
58. DUSTIN LYNCH - Mind Reader: 37.806 (+0.924) ▲
59. CHRIS YOUNG & CASSADEE POPE - Think Of You: 37.633 (+0.250) ▼
60. DJ SNAKE - Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine: 36.317 (+0.192) ▲

61. LEE BRICE - That Don't Sound Like You: 35.980 (+0.399) ▲
62. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 35.925 (+0.171)
63. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 35.662 (-1.292) ▼
64. TAYLOR SWIFT - New Romantics: 35.366 (+0.698) ▲
65. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 35.319 (-0.031)
66. ZARA LARSSON & MNEK - Never Forget You: 35.063 (+0.427) ▲
67. DIERKS BENTLEY - Somewhere On A Beach: 34.663 (+0.672) ▲
68. FETTY WAP - Again: 34.600 (-0.976) ▼
69. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 32.441 (+0.083)
70. TIM MCGRAW - Humble And Kind: 32.308 (+1.021) ▲

71. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 31.191 (+0.452) ▲
72. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 31.181 (-0.245) ▼
73. DJ LUKE NASTYY - Might Be: 31.145 (-0.462) ▼
74. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 30.611 (-0.578) ▼
75. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 30.472 (-0.106)

[Deleted]

Meghan Trainor going for blood with these radio updates!

[MTSChart21]

Like I told my brothers, NO will be huge on the radio

[Deleted]

NO is also ending the week very strong on iTunes. I wonder if they'll throw the video at us tomorrow - or wait another week or two and try for that H100 #1.

And I can't with ZAYN releasing a promo track on a Thursday.

[wjr15]

Mar 10, 2016 13:34:31 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

NO is also ending the week very strong on iTunes. I wonder if they'll throw the video at us tomorrow - or wait another week or two and try for that H100 #1.

I hope they wait until another week or two so the music video can send NO to #1.

EDIT: @broccoli, with NO at #1 on iTunes now, it's massive radio gains, and currently at #29 on Spotify in the US, where do you think Meghan will debut this week?

[Deleted]

I think top 15 is likely for NO.

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 11:16:20 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

2016/03/10

*** = dropped or added a format

1. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 202.022 (-0.089)
2. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 182.292 (-1.018)
5. FLO RIDA - My House: 137.626 (+1.101)
6. G-EAZY - Me Myself And I f/Bebe Rexha: 112.452 (+1.116)
8. DNCE - Cake By The Ocean: 102.149 (+2.428***)

11. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 96.413 (-0.782) ▼
12. CHARLIE PUTH - One Call Away: 82.215 (+0.766)
13. ZAYN - Pillowtalk: 77.070 (+2.655)

17. MIKE POSNER - I Took A Pill In Ibiza: 68.869 (+1.026) ▲

27. LUKAS GRAHAM - 7 Years: 56.884 (+1.486)

29. MEGHAN TRAINOR - NO: 53.908 (+8.307) ▲

32. ELLIE GOULDING - Something In The Way You Move: 52.810 (+0.386)

56. JAMES BAY - Let It Go: 39.978 (+0.305)
60. DJ SNAKE - Middle f/Bipolar Sunshine: 36.317 (+0.192) ▲

66. ZARA LARSSON & MNEK - Never Forget You: 35.063 (+0.427) ▲

Glad to see PILLOWTALK, ITAPII and 7 Years get some good gains.

12, 32, 56, 60, 66 all need to gain faster!!!

WOW AT MEGHAN! I knew this was gonna be big on radio. I mean, dang. 53 million after just 6 days? Meghan better not block Lukas Graham from getting that Hot 100 #1 (I did predict 7 Years to peak at #2 though for reasons like this).

Still surprised that Love Yourself got 200 million AI, while Sorry only 180 million.

It's sad to see that Stressed Out is done :(

NO FLO RIDA! DON'T YOU DARE SLOW DOWN! I NEED YOU TO BE A HOT 100 #1 IF LUKAS CAN'T GET IT!

Nice gains for MM&I and CBTO.

After all of this time, Stitches is out of the top 10 in AI. I am so glad that it got this big.

This review was fun to do. I might do this twice a week or something.

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

Mar 10, 2016 13:34:31 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

NO is also ending the week very strong on iTunes. I wonder if they'll throw the video at us tomorrow - or wait another week or two and try for that H100 #1.

I hope they wait until another week or two so the music video can send NO to #1.

EDIT: @broccoli , with NO at #1 on iTunes now, it's massive radio gains, and currently at #29 on Spotify in the US, where do you think Meghan will debut this week?

Can someone explain why NO just randomly gained on iTunes? Did some kind of promotion happen that I don't know about?

[MTSChart21]

Mar 10, 2016 10:45:22 GMT -5 badrobot said:

^Let's not do that. If you don't like someone, just ignore them. We can all be civil and friendly. "Let it go..."

"...Just let it be." (I don't think that's the song that you meant)

[Deleted]

NO will lose a bunch of its audience impressions tomorrow because of the hefty radio deal it had last Friday - the "rolling effect" as we call it - but it's still quite strong!

[Deleted]

Mar 10, 2016 14:11:59 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

Mar 10, 2016 13:50:55 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

I hope they wait until another week or two so the music video can send NO to #1.

EDIT: @broccoli , with NO at #1 on iTunes now, it's massive radio gains, and currently at #29 on Spotify in the US, where do you think Meghan will debut this week?

Can someone explain why NO just randomly gained on iTunes? Did some kind of promotion happen that I don't know about?

She's been doing a big promo blitz in NYC today... multiple appearances.

[MTSChart21]

I am predicting NO to peak at #1. These fast radio gains, #1 on iTunes. All it really needs is a video. And with this, my other prediction also takes place. 7 Years gets blocked at #2 and ends up peaking at that same place. :( I think Work has a good 2-4 weeks left in its #1 run (depending on when Meghan releases the video).

So this is how the #1 situation will play out.

The week before Meghan's video release (if my 2-4 more weeks at #1 thing is correct)
1. Work
2. 7 Years
3. My House/Love Yourself/NO

The week of Meghan's video release
1. Work
2. NO
3. 7 Years

The next 2 weeks
1. NO
2. Work
3. 7 Years

The next week
1. NO
2. 7 Years
3. Work

Then the next week, a new song comes out (or a song from lower in the chart) jumps to #2
1. NO
2. New song/fast gainer from lower in the chart
3. 7 Years

The next week, the #2 song jumps to #1 and replaces Meghan

[Caviar]

"NO" is probably my favorite (pop) first single since "Roar".

[Mike is BAD]

Mar 10, 2016 7:43:28 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

Itsravi hasn't posted enough to be a Platinum member, those rankings are determined by post count. He's got a long way to go to get there.

How many posts do you need?

[Az Paynter]

It's kinda based off US certifications; 500 is Gold, 1000 is Platinum and 10,000 is Diamond

[Deleted]

I can imagine all the rage on here if NO hits number one haha. I'd honestly much rather have NO #1 than Work staying there for 10+ weeks.

[wjr15]

Mar 10, 2016 19:32:47 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I can imagine all the rage on here if NO hits number one haha. I'd honestly much rather have NO #1 than Work staying there for 10+ weeks.

[Zach]

Mar 10, 2016 20:06:25 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

No. Absolutely not.

[Chris Ng]

No is a good pop song imo. Tho i'll be surprised if it hits #1.

[jarhys]

Mar 10, 2016 20:37:48 GMT -5 Chris Ng said:

No is a good pop song imo. Tho i'll be surprised if it hits #1.

It also shows Meghan Trainor is not just a sugar pop singer.

[85la]

I just noticed this, but why the f--k is The Game's picture in all of Drake's chart positions on Billboard.com?