Mike
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Post by Mike on Mar 31, 2021 8:48:25 GMT -5
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Mar 31, 2021 8:57:15 GMT -5
Some early predictions...
- Olivia Rodrigo is an obvious contender for Best New Artist. Morgan Wallen has the impressive album success, but the controversy surrounding him might influence the Academy. Not to mention we don't even know if his label is planning to submit him (hopefully they carry on with the suspension, though it's unlikely)
- Bruno Mars and Anderson Paak are two Grammy darlings, and I can easily see them getting nominated for the big categories. Same applies for Cardi (though sadly, I think she won't focus much on "WAP" due to poor timing, but more on "Up" and the album itself)
- Expect pop nominations for both Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande, especially now that the former's material actually got decent acclaim. I hope Miley can sneak in somehow, but given their history with her, it's pure wishful thinking.
- I don't think "evermore" will be nominated for AOTY, given how she just won her third award there. I can see her in the pop categories + Song of the Year, though.
- H.E.R.'s "Damage" will at least be nominated for something in the R&B categories.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Mar 31, 2021 9:16:50 GMT -5
Is Morgan eligible for BNA? After a platinum selling debut and now a second album selling well? They could as well give the BNA to Bruno Mars of the Silk Sonic fame
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Mar 31, 2021 9:18:32 GMT -5
The period of eligibility is slightly more than half over, isn’t it? It feels like it’s still so early. I’ll have to come back later with some ‘early’ predictions.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Mar 31, 2021 9:31:36 GMT -5
Mariah for Spoken Word!! (Obama will win.)
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Mar 31, 2021 9:48:35 GMT -5
Just realized the show is happening on a Monday... Ugh. I know it really doesn't matter, but I like my award shows on Sunday nights!
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tasz
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Post by tasz on Mar 31, 2021 10:58:05 GMT -5
Will WAP be eligible for nomination submission at the 2022 Grammy Awards?
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Mar 31, 2021 11:19:56 GMT -5
Will WAP be eligible for nomination submission at the 2022 Grammy Awards? From what I've read, it seems that Cardi B and her team chose to not submit it for the 2021 Grammy Awards to coincide with the release of her second album. This has happened before (most recent example being Post Malone with "Circles"). However, I think Cardi should have done what Taylor did back in 2014, especially since "WAP" was still very strong on public consciousness throughout the eligibility and voting period of 2021. Quite a missed opportunity, in my opinion. However, some say she might have done this on purpose to avoid splitting votes with "Savage", which also makes sense. I know the song is far from the Academy's usual profile, but it was a cultural moment, and a sharply written song with killer performances, and it would be nice to see it getting some accolades. Summary: Yes, it is eligible for submission. Rooting it can be nominated somewhere, despite being old news by late 2021.
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myhouse911
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Post by myhouse911 on Mar 31, 2021 20:36:11 GMT -5
Is Morgan eligible for BNA? After a platinum selling debut and now a second album selling well? They could as well give the BNA to Bruno Mars of the Silk Sonic fame Silk Sonic wouldn't be eligible, unless they change their rules (again). Morgan could be eligible, again unless the rules are changed. We don't know how many times he has been submitted, but the maximum number of times is currently set at 3.
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Spidey
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Post by Spidey on Mar 31, 2021 21:21:30 GMT -5
Just realized the show is happening on a Monday... Ugh. I know it really doesn't matter, but I like my award shows on Sunday nights! I thought it was quite odd they decided to air on a Monday. I know February is stacked on Sunday nights next year with the Olympics, Super Bowl and Academy Awards planned, but is something happening on Sunday, January 30th?
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Mar 31, 2021 21:35:32 GMT -5
It does not look like it. I know they've tried shifting dates with other award shows in the past to not-so-great results, so not sure what their play is here.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 1, 2021 0:46:17 GMT -5
Is Morgan eligible for BNA? After a platinum selling debut and now a second album selling well? They could as well give the BNA to Bruno Mars of the Silk Sonic fame Silk Sonic wouldn't be eligible, unless they change their rules (again). Morgan could be eligible, again unless the rules are changed. We don't know how many times he has been submitted, but the maximum number of times is currently set at 3. It's just crazy that no matter how much success one has, one can still be nominated for Best NEW Artist if fits the criteria of earlier noms.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Apr 1, 2021 16:21:58 GMT -5
Carrie Underwood's coming in hot to the Traditional Pop and Gospel/Christian categories with her My Gift and My Savior albums.
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taylor
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Post by taylor on Apr 1, 2021 19:13:37 GMT -5
Carrie Underwood's coming in hot to the Traditional Pop and Gospel/Christian categories with her My Gift and My Savior albums. Was coming in here to post this very thing Early prediction: My Savior in particular will win the Christian category. I see no reason why "Hallelujah" shouldn't win something either, and My Gift definitely deserves recognition as well. She will go home with at least 8x Grammy Winner to her title.
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Night Senses
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Post by Night Senses on Apr 2, 2021 4:20:51 GMT -5
Carrie Underwood's coming in hot to the Traditional Pop and Gospel/Christian categories with her My Gift and My Savior albums. Deserves everything she gets nominated for. Relatively new stan here and her discography has saved Q1 of 2021 for me. She better rack ‘em up!
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Lost In Musical Reverie
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Apr 4, 2021 14:22:22 GMT -5
Random train of thought here: despite admiring them immensely as vocalists, it feels so wrong that Céline Dion and Whitney Houston both have Album Of The Year trophies to their name while boundary-pushing and innovative artists like Janet Jackson and Madonna don't.
But then again, Adele won twice for similar projects while Beyoncé has none despite releasing two game-changing albums, so it's just proof how the Grammys will often opt for the safe album.
Further proof: "24K Magic" winning over everything else it was nominated against.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Apr 5, 2021 11:28:41 GMT -5
I think evermore has a nice chance of going home empty handed aside from a Best Pop Vocal Album nod, because timing works against it, and folklore winning AOTY. But we're halfway through the eligibility period so maybe it will sneak into the AOTY race; not many high profile contenders yet (the song categories on the other hand are already stacked).
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Apr 5, 2021 21:15:21 GMT -5
"Leading contenders" per Gold Derby (italicized ones are not released yet):
AOTY: "BE" by BTS “Chemtrails Over the Country Club” by Lana Del Rey “Daddy’s Home” by St. Vincent “An Evening with Silk Sonic” by Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars and Anderson Paak) “Evermore” by Taylor Swift “Good News” by Megan Thee Stallion “Justice” by Justin Bieber “Medicine at Midnight” by Foo Fighters “Montero” by Lil Nas X “Positions” by Ariana Grande “Starting Over” by Chris Stapleton
they put Morgan Wallen, Olivia Rodrigo, Ava Max, Shawn Mendes, Miley Cyrus, Machine Gun Kelly, BLACKPINK and more in the lower-probability tiers.
ROTY: “Drivers License” by Olivia Rodrigo “Good Days” by SZA “Holy” by Justin Bieber feat. Chance the Rapper “Leave the Door Open” by Silk Sonic “Levitating” by Dua Lipa feat. DaBaby “Life Goes On” by BTS “Montero (Call Me by Your Name)” by Lil Nas X “Peaches” by Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar and Giveon “Positions” by Ariana Grande “Therefore I Am” by Billie Eilish “WAP” by Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion “Willow” by Taylor Swift
other possible contenders include: “Body” by Megan Thee Stallion “Dakiti” by Bad Bunny feat. Jhay Cortez “Up” by Cardi B [^ these three were performed at the 2021 Grammy ceremony] “Damage” by H.E.R. “Telepatia” by Kali Uchis
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Apr 5, 2021 21:51:39 GMT -5
Yeah the first suggestion alone told me everything I needed to know about that list.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Apr 5, 2021 22:06:58 GMT -5
Yeah the first suggestion alone told me everything I needed to know about that list. skdksln it's alphabetical order bestie but yeah I don't see BTS getting an AOTY nomination either, especially when their biggest hit failed to get into general field categories this year. on the other hand, Grammys would probably nominate them in a heartbeat if they actually made the Top 20 shortlist, if letting BTS close out the show this year with a mediocre pre-recorded performance is any indication.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Apr 5, 2021 22:44:19 GMT -5
They adored the extra attention but I think LGO was too shortlived to actually make the cut, let alone the album, which sold well but failed to yield any other hits.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 6, 2021 7:00:16 GMT -5
This is going back to a discussion in the previous thread, but I just realized Tina Turner has won in 3 different vocal genres - Pop, Rock, and R&B. She's also been nominated in Gospel.
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Post by when the pawn... on Apr 6, 2021 20:57:55 GMT -5
Yeah the first suggestion alone told me everything I needed to know about that list. I'd agree but I also would've side-eyed predictions of Jacob Collier, Coldplay, Black Pumas, even Jhene Aiko and Haim before last year's nominees were announced. Not out of the realm of possibility that NARAS would cling to the army five years after they proved their prowess. So confused by the decision to delay WAP's eligibility when Megan has a full new album and Cardi has "Up" (likely with an album out before September).
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Apr 6, 2021 22:57:58 GMT -5
The issue that places like Gold Derby, and even us at PMB, continue to unknowingly succumb to is that we so heavily monitor Metacritic, sales, streams, Billboard, radio, tours, and other awards shows (which are all VERY valid components to utilize as metrics), that we forget the Academy's scope is far wider than what we grant it. Just about zero human beings I know of were ever pegging the likes of Jacob Collier, Coldplay, or Black Pumas as even possibilities for AOTY, let alone eventual nominees.
I'd be willing to bet maybe 3 or 4 of those possible nominees Gold Derby listed above will actually break through to the final round.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 7, 2021 20:14:00 GMT -5
The issue that places like Gold Derby, and even us at PMB, continue to unknowingly succumb to is that we so heavily monitor Metacritic, sales, streams, Billboard, radio, tours, and other awards shows (which are all VERY valid components to utilize as metrics), that we forget the Academy's scope is far wider than what we grant it. Just about zero human beings I know of were ever pegging the likes of Jacob Collier, Coldplay, or Black Pumas as even possibilities for AOTY, let alone eventual nominees. I'd be willing to bet maybe 3 or 4 of those possible nominees Gold Derby listed above will actually break through to the final round. I get what you're saying, but I'd also add there were at least signs that those acts could get in AOTY. Coldplay is always a threat, in a sense, as previous big winners; it isn't uncommon for Grammy faves to sneak in. Jacob Collier had won 4 Grammys prior to this past year, so even if they were all for arranging there was some positive history there. Plus he had Grammy winners Daniel Caesar and Tori Kelly on the album, so that likely helped. Black Pumas had of course been nominated for Best New Artist last year, so they had some Grammy momentum as well. All of that is of course different than any of them being a lock/favorite for nominations. It's just that there was some reason to think a nomination could happen. Ultimately you can make a case for so many artists, and of course that's where predictions are a 'game.'
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2021 14:45:09 GMT -5
Yeah the first suggestion alone told me everything I needed to know about that list. What a lot of people probably don't realize is that BTS literally did EVERYTHING for the BE album themselves, from project management, concept, album packaging and one of the members even directed the Life Goes On music video. They even did the photography themselves as well as wrote and produced the majority of the songs. Dynamite is the only song they did not write or produce. The argument people made opposing Dynamite winning was that charting and song success doesn't matter for Grammys and it's about the creativity and art. If that's true then there probably isn't another album that better fits the spirit of what that award is supposed to be about.
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Apr 19, 2021 16:37:19 GMT -5
They could have done their own makeup for the album cover themselves and it would still be a mediocre, overhyped album.
It's bad music. If it didn't sell to a rabid and extremely vocal fanbase it wouldn't even be mentioned as a contender. Sometimes it's just that simple.
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Troublemaker
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Post by Troublemaker on Apr 19, 2021 16:44:52 GMT -5
They could have done their own makeup for the album cover themselves and it would still be a mediocre, overhyped album. It's bad music. If it didn't sell to a rabid and extremely vocal fanbase it wouldn't even be mentioned as a contender. Sometimes it's just that simple. I can’t with you. No lies detected though
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Post by Wave. on Apr 21, 2021 9:40:30 GMT -5
Ion know bout all that but if they drop more music that is more "Life Goes On" then "Dynamite", then we're on the right track.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 21, 2021 22:24:32 GMT -5
Yeah the first suggestion alone told me everything I needed to know about that list. What a lot of people probably don't realize is that BTS literally did EVERYTHING for the BE album themselves, from project management, concept, album packaging and one of the members even directed the Life Goes On music video. They even did the photography themselves as well as wrote and produced the majority of the songs. Dynamite is the only song they did not write or produce. The argument people made opposing Dynamite winning was that charting and song success doesn't matter for Grammys and it's about the creativity and art. If that's true then there probably isn't another album that better fits the spirit of what that award is supposed to be about. I create my own shit on the daily, but it's still shit.
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