Billboard Hot 100: 08/13/2022

[Limited Edition]

^Confirmation:

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 29, 2022 9:19:42 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

I think if ADT can stay ahead of AIW this week, it should be able to stay ahead of it. The airplay lead will remain and continue to grow slowly, both will lose streams, but AIW has extra downward pressure from Harry's followup.
If it isn't ahead this week, that means ADT streams fell a lot, and then all bets are off going forward,

It would be best for MSR if AIW started to fall off Pop at a much faster rate. If AIW continues to hold on strong, I think MSR could suffer the fate Traitor did (when Pop radio held on to G4u and Deja Vu too long).

[shayonce]

[phieaglesfan712]

Looks like Beyoncé is going to do it:

[NeRD]

Those are decent Spotify numbers. Could it be enough with Apple Music to get BMS to #1?

[jenglisbe]

Jul 30, 2022 7:47:54 GMT -5 NeRD said:

Those are decent Spotify numbers. Could it be enough with Apple Music to get BMS to #1?

Obviously it needs to hold on throughout the week, too. Its airplay means it just has to be near "AIW" and "ABT" in streaming to have a chance. It will be ahead of them for Friday, but what about Monday, Tuesday, etc?

[wavey.]

That would be the gag. What a time, I'm loving it.

[shayonce]

it needs like 18~19M Streams, every song have drops through weeks, it will be very hard to keep that streams.
shame there's no video..

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 30, 2022 8:39:04 GMT -5 shayonce said:

it needs like 18~19M Streams, every song have drops through weeks, it will be very hard to keep that streams.
shame there's no video..

If she’s close, and she has like 15-17M, Beyoncé could put out a limited edition digital download with alternative cover of Break My Soul later in the week on iTunes to bridge the difference and get to #1.

[rideordie]

The no.1 song for next week maybe a three way battle. Let’s see how this turns out

[korbel16]

oh shit i forgot BMS is number 4 on radio, yaaaaa she’s taking it

[jasper0102]

So Break My Soul got a Spotify boost off the album of around 1.1 million. And given the Apple Music boost, top 3 is locked at this point, it now depends on how well it does on other streaming platforms and airplay if it can get #1.

[M5AGTS]

Lauren Spencer-Smith's new song is fantastic. Also the Marshmello/Mae Muller/Trippie Redd collab is fantastic as well.

[Enigma.]

Jul 30, 2022 9:30:44 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

So Break My Soul got a Spotify boost off the album of around 1.1 million. And given the Apple Music boost, top 3 is locked at this point, it now depends on how well it does on other streaming platforms and airplay if it can get #1.

I would say it depends on how well it does for the rest of the week. Still 6 days to go.

[jasper0102]

^oh right, how could I forget second-day drops are a thing.

[dragonslair]

Not sure that is enough, I' am guessing she will see the normal big album decline throughout the week. 40% ish percent today for starters

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 07/29/22

Beyoncé - RENAISSANCE
1(DEBUT) I'M THAT GIRL 1,660,113
3(+37) BREAK MY SOUL 1,498,240 (+1,093,868)
4(DEBUT) ALIEN SUPERSTAR 1,442,367
5(DEBUT) COZY 1,400,754
6(DEBUT) CUFF IT 1,388,259
7(DEBUT) CHURCH GIRL 1,340,818
8(DEBUT) ENERGY 1,339,948
12(DEBUT) PLASTIC OFF THE SOFA 1,047,494
13(DEBUT) VIRGO'S GROOVE 1,045,597
14(DEBUT) SUMMER RENAISSANCE 999,922
17(DEBUT) MOVE 925,899
19(DEBUT) THIQUE  900,192
21(DEBUT) HEATED 879,757
23(DEBUT) PURE/HONEY 796,369
24(DEBUT) ALL UP IN YOUR MIND 787,444
25(DEBUT) AMERICA HAS A PROBLEM 768,423
Total Streams: 18,221,596

Others:
2(-1) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 1,552,962 (+23,946)
9(-7) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) 1,177,104 (+10,984)
10(-7) Harry Styles - As It Was 1,121,533 (+20,163)
11(-7) Bad Bunny, Chencho Corleone - Me Porto Bonito 1,117,411 (+100,301)
15(-8) Bad Bunny - Tití Me Preguntó 967,566 (+82,485)
16(-11) Drake, 21 Savage - Jimmy Cooks 944,848 (+5,754)
18(-12) Joji - Glimpse of Us 904,126 (-22,384)
20(DEBUT) NAV, Lil Baby, Travis Scott - Never Sleep 899,778
22(-14) Post Malone, Doja Cat - I Like You (A Happier Song) 798,271 (+21,329)
26(-17) Lizzo - About Damn Time 697,638 (+14,358)
27(-17) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 690,713 (+22,832)
28(-17) Doja Cat - Vegas 686,339 (+19,535)
29(-13) Bad Bunny - Efecto 677,390 (+66,939)
30(-18) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 668,932 (+15,502)
31(-14) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 659,555 (+61,820)
32(-19) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 657,902 (+14,432)
33(-19) Future, Drake, Tems - WAIT FOR U 639,052 (+4,498)
34(-19) Jack Harlow - First Class 633,677 (+17,847)
35(-16) Bad Bunny - Moscow Mule 613,184 (+51,062)
36(-18) Yung Gravy - Betty (Get Money) 583,166 (+14,091)
37(-15) Bad Bunny, Bomba Estéreo - Ojitos Lindos 563,271 (+50,775)
38(-18) Nicky Youre, dazy - Sunroof 559,241 (+13,241)
39(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Matte Black 537,913
40(-19) The Weeknd - Die For You 526,518 (+6,838)
41(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Genesis 526,303
42(-16) Bad Bunny, Rauw Alejandro - Party 515,288 (+45,855)
43(-19) Metallica - Master of Puppets 500,426 (+3,138)
44(-10) Luke Combs - The Kind of Love We Make 499,932 (+72,790)
45(-14) Bad Bunny - Después de la Playa 491,323 (+48,635)
47(-19) Bizarap, Quevedo - Quevedo: Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 52 470,855 (+12,625)
48(-23) Bailey Zimmerman - Rock and A Hard Place 462,714 (-24,239)
49(-20) J. Cole - No Role Modelz 462,003 (+9,949)
50(-27) Billie Eilish - TV 460,186 (-49,692)
52(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Fucking Your Culture 449,571
53(-21) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 443,775 (+4,847)
54(-18) Morgan Wallen - Wasted On You 440,510 (+29,524)
55(-18) Baby Keem - HONEST 437,208 (+28,114)
56(-23) Zach Bryan - Something in the Orange 434,972 (+6,718)
57(-13) Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Tarot 429,057 (+39,553)
58(-20) KAROL G - PROVENZA 426,557 (+18,620)
59(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - 1000 Blunts 426,188
60(-25) Mac Miller, The Temper Trap - Love Lost 413,967 (-10,496)
64(-21) Post Malone, Roddy Ricch - Cooped Up 400,364 (+8,813)
65(re-entry) $uicideboy$ - Escape from BABYLON 397,097
66(-7) Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina 394,503 (+54,201)
68(-22) Stephen Sanchez - Until I Found You 387,148 (+11,048)
70(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Constant Sorrow 386,146
71(-23) Tears for Fears - Everybody Wants to Rule the World 381,665 (+11,241)
72(-22) Future - PUFFIN ON ZOOTIEZ 380,467 (+12,116)
74(DEBUT) Calvin Harris, Normani, Tinashe, Offset - New to You 372,955
75(-26) Pharrell Williams, 21 Savage, Tyler, The Creator - Cash In Cash Out 369,435 (-591)
77(-32) Billie Eilish - The 30th 360,568 (-17,873)
78(-11) Bad Bunny, Tony Dize - La Corriente 359,946 (+38,391)
80(-25) Charlie Puth, Jung Kook - Left and Right 355,649 (+8,413)
82(DEBUT) ROSALÍA - DESPECHÁ 351,035
85(-9) Bad Bunny - Un Ratito 339,519 (+30,459)
87(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - $uicideboy$ Were Better in 2015 335,386
90(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Ashes of Luxury 330,914
91(-6) Central Cee - Doja 330,389 (+35,255)
94(-30) Drake - Sticky 327,716 (+1,607)
95(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Resistance is Useless 326,455
96(-33) The Weeknd, Lana Del Rey - Stargirl Interlude 324,304 (-2,507)
99(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - No Matter Which Direction I'm Going In, I Never Chase These Hoes 320,919

105(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Eulogy 313,205
109(-36) Joji - SLOW DANCING IN THE DARK 309,223 (-3,090)
113(-55) Noah Kahan - Stick Season 307,328 (-33,169)
116(-30) Latto - Big Energy 306,070 (+11,866)
120(-30) AJR - World's Smallest Violin 296,375 (+5,630)
121(re-entry) Rod Wave - Stone Rolling 296,274
126(+63) Lil Uzi Vert - FOR FUN 291,579 (+71,054)
129(DEBUT) $uicideboy$ - Unlucky Me 290,340
131(DEBUT) AJR - 1 Won't 288,229
132(-44) Taylor Swift - Don't Blame Me 287,667 (-4,865)
135(-31) Quavo, Takeoff - HOTEL LOBBY (Unc & Phew) 286,999 (+11,181)
136(-19) Morgan Wallen - Thought You Should Know 284,997 (+19,072)
140(-31) Tyler Hubbard - 5 Foot 9 280,866 (+8,931)
142(DEBUT) Quavo, Takeoff, Gucci Mane - Us vs. Them 278,818
146(-16) ERNEST, Morgan Wallen - Flower Shops 277,253 (+23,189)
150(-36) Drake - Massive 272,910 (+3,031)
151(re-entry) $uicideboy$ - THE_EVIL_THAT_MEN_DO 272,303
155(-42) The Weeknd, Gesaffelstein - I Was Never There 268,799 (-1,361)
156(-41) Sleepy Hallow, 347aidan - Die Young 268,771 (-389)
160(-40) Ruth B. - Dandelions 265,187 (+1,457)
161(-72) Russ, Ed Sheeran - Are You Entertained 264,694 (-27,622)
163(-40) Elley Duhé - MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT 263,852 (+3,213)
165(-44) Cigarettes After Sex - Apocalypse 263,482 (-688)
173(-33) Marshmello, Khalid - Numb 257,398 (+8,507)
176(DEBUT) Fred again.., Swedish House Mafia, Future - Turn On the Lights again.. 254,241
177(-32) $uicideboy$ - Antarctica 254,127 (+7,932)
181(-42) Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer 252,591 (+3,157)
184(-33) Lil Baby - Freestyle 250,832 (+6,865)
185(DEBUT) Hailee Steinfeld, Anderson .Paak - Coast 250,318
190(-44) Mr.Kitty - After Dark 247,664 (+1,683)
193(DEBUT) Maggie Rogers - Anywhere With You 245,032

First Day Streams for $uicideboy$ - Sing Me a Lullaby, My Sweet Temptation: 4,912,740

Biggest Gains (50K+): FOR FUN, 'Til You Can't, She Had Me At Heads Carolina, The Kind of Love We Make, Ojitos Lindos, Moscow Mule, You Proof, Efecto, Tití Me Preguntó, Me Porto Bonito, BREAK MY SOUL

Top 10 Without Beyoncé
1. Bad Habit
2. Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God)
3. As It Was
4. Me Porto Bonito
5. Tití Me Preguntó
6. Jimmy Cooks
7. Glimpse of Us
8. Never Sleep
9. I Like You (A Happier Song)
10. About Damn Time

[dragonslair]

Jul 30, 2022 8:54:28 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jul 30, 2022 8:39:04 GMT -5 shayonce said:

it needs like 18~19M Streams, every song have drops through weeks, it will be very hard to keep that streams.
shame there's no video..

If she’s close, and she has like 15-17M, Beyoncé could put out a limited edition digital download with alternative cover of Break My Soul later in the week on iTunes to bridge the difference and get to #1.

We need a new rule so #1 cannot be bought.  Only versions that count for the tracking week are those released at initial release.  So the exclusive digital download on a Thursday won't count for a Friday release track,  You could still drop a new song on Monday but the remix of it on Wed won't count for the week.  They'd all count the following week.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jul 30, 2022 10:46:21 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

Jul 30, 2022 8:54:28 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

If she’s close, and she has like 15-17M, Beyoncé could put out a limited edition digital download with alternative cover of Break My Soul later in the week on iTunes to bridge the difference and get to #1.

We need a new rule so #1 cannot be bought.  Only versions that count for the tracking week are those released at initial release.  So the exclusive digital download on a Thursday won't count for a Friday release track,  You could still drop a new song on Monday but the remix of it on Wed won't count for the week.  They'd all count the following week.

This seems so complicated over music charts. I agree that sales manipulation is bad but putting a stop to mass buying is enough for now, no need to over complicate things by saying this version of a song won't be allowed because it wasn't released on a Friday.

Again, it's just charts. It's not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 07 » / « 30 »

1(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 119.08(+0.22)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 97.86(+0.28)
3(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 88.36(-1.20)
4(=) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 74.06(+1.33)
5(=) Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug 69.91(+0.25)
6(=) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 69.54(+0.67)
7(=) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal with God) 65.55(+1.38)
8(=) Nicky Youre & Dazy - Sunroof 62.60(+1.25)
9(=) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 60.94(-0.16)
10(=) Latto - Big Energy 59.98(-0.38)

24(=) Dylan Scott - New Truck 36.65(+0.73)

56(+4) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 20.61(+1.22)

92(+16) Doja Cat - Vegas (From the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack ELVIS) 11.96(+0.88)

-(-) Daddy Yankee - Remix 10.59(+0.77)

-(-) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 4.20(+1.01)

[jasper0102]

Jul 29, 2022 0:39:50 GMT -5 jasper0102 said:

Also, say your goodbyes/good riddances to That's What I Want, Super Gremlin, Woman, Bad Habits (if it survives last week), and Enemy.

Forgot to mention What Happened To Virgil and Sweetest Pie are both hitting 20 weeks last week and are 100% gonna also go recurrent, so say your goodbyes/good riddances to them to.

[dragonslair]

Jul 30, 2022 10:56:14 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Jul 30, 2022 10:46:21 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

We need a new rule so #1 cannot be bought.  Only versions that count for the tracking week are those released at initial release.  So the exclusive digital download on a Thursday won't count for a Friday release track,  You could still drop a new song on Monday but the remix of it on Wed won't count for the week.  They'd all count the following week.

This seems so complicated over music charts. I agree that sales manipulation is bad but putting a stop to mass buying is enough for now, no need to over complicate things by saying this version of a song won't be allowed because it wasn't released on a Friday.

Again, it's just charts. It's not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.

I disagree,  it's manipulation of a fan/person.  If you are releasing something on a Thursday it's certainly not going to be known or for the general public to rush off for. It is simply released so your rabid fan base will buy it.  It has little to do with actual music consumption.  You can't consume a new digital cover.

its taking advantage and abusing people. Usually minors.
 

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Jul 30, 2022 11:24:27 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

Jul 30, 2022 10:56:14 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

This seems so complicated over music charts. I agree that sales manipulation is bad but putting a stop to mass buying is enough for now, no need to over complicate things by saying this version of a song won't be allowed because it wasn't released on a Friday.

Again, it's just charts. It's not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.

I disagree,  it's manipulation of a fan/person.  If you are releasing something on a Thursday it's certainly not going to be known or for the general public to rush off for. It is simply released so your rabid fan base will buy it.  It has little to do with actual music consumption.  You can't consume a new digital cover.

its taking advantage and abusing people. Usually minors.
 

It’s an interesting idea. I don’t think it’s too complicated, only for predictors I suppose. And remixes and stuff would still count, only for a new tracking week. I like it!

[Envoirment]

Happy to see "Break My Soul" has a good chance at #1 this week - I hope it doesn't have too big of a drop as the week goes on. It's a shame she didn't release the video it along with the album, as I'm sure it would've cemented the song going to #1!

Kate Bush looks like she might have a good chance of getting to #1 in the next few weeks given that Harry appears to be decreasing in points quicker than Kate currently. Not to mention her airplay continues to gain at a good pace.

It would be amazing if we had Lizzo, Beyoncé and Kate Bush holding the #1 on the Hot 100 for the next 6-8 weeks. I expect "Break My Soul" to have a shot at #1 again in the future when the music video is released if it drops off quite a bit next week. I feel they may release it when the airplay is close to peaking.

[phieaglesfan712]

[rimetm]

Jul 30, 2022 12:39:51 GMT -5 Envoirment said:

Kate Bush looks like she might have a good chance of getting to #1 in the next few weeks given that Harry appears to be decreasing in points quicker than Kate currently. Not to mention her airplay continues to gain at a good pace.

ChartEssentials’ after-the-fact figures for the songs doesn’t really bear that out.

As It Was: 26,500 - 26,100 - 25,500
RUTH: 23,200 - 23,300 - 22,500

Last week in particular, RUTH showed worse pace (-800) than As It Was (-600).

[fridayteenage]

well, better than lizzo's 14 mil streams.

[dragonslair]

Jul 30, 2022 13:08:14 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

well, better than lizzo's 14 mil streams.

Well, that'll mean nothing if she doesn't beat Lizzo overall.

[NeRD]

I'm tempted to buy the original version of the song at the very least,maybe even the instrumental and acapella.

[woods]

Break My Soul being only #18 on TTH is kinda BS. If it was #1 there and she dropped the video it would probably have a much better shot at #1 on the Hot 100.