Billboard Hot 100: 08/13/2022

[dovahduck]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Joy. The worst song on Dawn FM being a single

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates « 2022 » / « 08 » / « 03 »

1(=) Lizzo - About Damn Time 120.23(+0.25)
2(=) Harry Styles - As It Was 98.83(+0.22)
3(=) Jack Harlow - First Class 84.76(-0.78)
4(=) Beyoncé - BREAK MY SOUL 77.53(+0.89)
5(=) Harry Styles - Late Night Talking 70.45(+0.21)
6(+1) Kate Bush - Running Up That Hill (A Deal with God) 70.24(+1.69)
7(-1) Em Beihold - Numb Little Bug 68.96(-0.36)
8(=) Nicky Youre & Dazy - Sunroof 68.31(+1.56)
9(=) Latto - Big Energy 59.08(-0.51)
10(+1) The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber - Stay 58.62(+0.17)

19(+2) Dylan Scott - New Truck 38.81(+0.81)

25(+1) Chris Young - At The End Of A Bar w/Tenpenny 31.97(+0.89)

34(+4) OneRepublic - I Ain't Worried 27.84(+1.67)

49(=) Cole Swindell - She Had Me At Heads Carolina 22.74(+0.73)

63(+4) Marshmello & Khalid - Numb 18.16(+0.73)

71(+2) Doja Cat - Vegas (From the Original Motion Picture Soundtrack ELVIS) 16.16(+0.98)

84(+7) Morgan Wallen - You Proof 13.40(+1.15)

-(-) Steve Lacy - Bad Habit 9.76(+1.24)

[Mayman]

Aug 3, 2022 11:18:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Joy. The worst song on Dawn FM being a single

Well we don't know if it'll be a radio single.

[atg]

Aug 3, 2022 11:18:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Joy. The worst song on Dawn FM being a single

I don’t even know what’s going on with the era right now. At first it looked like they’re going to move on from Out Of Time to HDIMYLM and now this Best Friends remix. I’m just grateful that TMB at least had a nice run to carry Dawn FM on its back.

[kingvavis]

The momentum for Bad Habit is impressive, it has potential for being the defining hit for the second half of this year

[musicspy]

Aug 3, 2022 11:14:04 GMT -5 dovahduck said:

F*! Yeah finally!!!!

[dragonslair]

Aug 3, 2022 9:37:18 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

All I know is that if Running Up That Hill doesn’t top the Hot 100, there will be a significant formula change. There were 3 weeks when RUTH topped the streaming and sales metrics, and it didn’t crack the Top 3 in any of those weeks. It would be one thing if RUTH did next to nothing on radio, but it’s a Top 10 hit there too. The Hot 100 formula is flawed, and RUTH not reaching #1 is probably the straw that breaks the camel’s back to get significant changes done.

No it is not flawed.  You need to align your consumption to peak at the same time in all the metrics.  

we don't award a triathlete the gold medal if they do the best in the running and biking parts but finish fifth in the race overall.

the simple fact is, the formula is not flawed. The problem is streams suck so bad,  I don't think they should be rewarded for sucking and given more weight.

[Gary]

question for phieaglesfan712

Was curious if you felt the formula was flawed across the board for every song or just songs not being #1 because they didn't finish at the top of the individual metrics

In particular, how do you feel 'About Damn Time'

#1 in radio but only #10 in streaming
Does that song belong at #1 overall?

[dragonslair]

The excuse that streaming is low due to Billboard not counting types of streams now seems suspect. So people are saying tha UGC and other now non counted streams were 40-50% of streams in the past? That we've gone from consistent 60m to consistent 30m all because UGC is fine. I don't buy it. Sure it definitely lowered streams but nowhere near that level.

As always it's interesting seeing people from other countries complain about radio in the Hot 100. They are basing it on their radio experience. The US is definitely unique in the world in terms of the proliferation of the staggering sheer amount of stations playing music, I've travelled a fair amount, and there's just nothing like it. Cities of 100k with 5-10 music stations playing various and overlapping formats. You simply just don't see that in most other countries,

[dragonslair]

Aug 3, 2022 15:13:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

question for phieaglesfan712

Was curious if you felt the formula was flawed across the board for every song or just songs not being #1 because they didn't finish at the top of the individual metrics

In particular, how do you feel 'About Damn Time'

#1 in radio but only #10 in streaming
Does that song belong at #1 overall?

It seems to me this argument always comes up when a song leads either airplay or sales by a lot.  But never comes up when a song dominates streams.

it really boils down to a bias for streaming.  Can't do anything wrong on that metric, but everything in sales or radio is flawed.

i would like to see an experiment tried, downgrade rsdio and sales in the formula, but remove from counting from streaming all the things that annoy people about radio or sales.  So no bulk streams and no playlist streams.  That would produce a nice accurate popularity chart vs a consumprion

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 3, 2022 15:13:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

question for phieaglesfan712

Was curious if you felt the formula was flawed across the board for every song or just songs not being #1 because they didn't finish at the top of the individual metrics

In particular, how do you feel 'About Damn Time'

#1 in radio but only #10 in streaming
Does that song belong at #1 overall?

Yes, at least it’s #1 in some metric and still in the Top 10 of the other two. That’s better than some #1’s that have been #1 in one metric and totally sucked in the other two (like Butter).

[dragonslair]

Aug 3, 2022 15:24:02 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 3, 2022 15:13:37 GMT -5 Gary said:

question for phieaglesfan712

Was curious if you felt the formula was flawed across the board for every song or just songs not being #1 because they didn't finish at the top of the individual metrics

In particular, how do you feel 'About Damn Time'

#1 in radio but only #10 in streaming
Does that song belong at #1 overall?

Yes, at least it’s #1 in some metric and still in the Top 10 of the other two. That’s better than some #1’s that have been #1 in one metric and totally sucked in the other two (like Butter).

Why does it matter it tops a metric? 

[jenglisbe]

Aug 3, 2022 9:24:40 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Here's some interesting insight on the current state of the Hot 100. 

I'm tired of the takes/posts where people give stats that leave out airplay entirely; as I've said before, very few people are advocating to drop airplay entirely. Any posts or replies talking about what the Hot 100 would look like without airplay are arguing a point for no real reason.

[jenglisbe]

Aug 3, 2022 16:08:21 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

Aug 3, 2022 15:24:02 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Yes, at least it’s #1 in some metric and still in the Top 10 of the other two. That’s better than some #1’s that have been #1 in one metric and totally sucked in the other two (like Butter).

Why does it matter it tops a metric? 

This is a fair question. To use the triathlon example, someone could not be the top person in any of the 3 events but still win the triathlon because they are the best in the aggregate. That seems fair.

[magik]

RUTH is #7 on radio? That's crazy. It really doesn't sound very '80s to me. It kinda works in the context of pop/alternative music today.

[kcdawg13]

Aug 3, 2022 17:27:33 GMT -5 magik said:

RUTH is #7 on radio? That's crazy. It really doesn't sound very '80s to me. It kinda works in the context of pop/alternative music today.

It probably helps that this 80's synthpop/new wave throwback stuff has been huge these past couple years, looking at it in the context of modern hits like Blinding Lights and even more underground bands like The Midnight, RUTH totally fits in with todays music.

[singingrulebritannia]

Also a lot of the alt-pop girlies who Lorde led the way for were already listening to Kate and it certainly showed in their music

[badrobot]

I was amazed that Kate broke into the airplay top 50, and now it’s challenging to pass Harry Styles’ current single on a trajectory to the top 5. Just absolutely thrilling and completely unexpected.

[dragonslair]

Aug 3, 2022 17:27:33 GMT -5 magik said:

RUTH is #7 on radio? That's crazy. It really doesn't sound very '80s to me. It kinda works in the context of pop/alternative music today.

Really?  The singing style is nothing like almost all the other songs in the rsdio top 10. Today's music is as distinguishable as to what year the music was out due to the singing style - as late 70s disco was due to the music.

[Groovy]

[kindofbiased]

Wonder what it would take for a song to hit even 500 points in the current chart climate, let alone something like 1000 points

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 3, 2022 17:12:08 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Aug 3, 2022 16:08:21 GMT -5 dragonslair said:

Why does it matter it tops a metric? 

This is a fair question. To use the triathlon example, someone could not be the top person in any of the 3 events but still win the triathlon because they are the best in the aggregate. That seems fair.

But winning by aggregate is boring, though. Putting an emphasis on winning the actual events, like a winner's bonus, will make the fight for the finish more exciting.

Billboard's all-time list kind of does this already. A week at #1 is worth 1.5 times as much as a week at #2, and a week at #10 is worth more than twice as much as a week at #11.

[dragonslair]

Aug 3, 2022 18:52:48 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 3, 2022 17:12:08 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

This is a fair question. To use the triathlon example, someone could not be the top person in any of the 3 events but still win the triathlon because they are the best in the aggregate. That seems fair.

But winning by aggregate is boring, though. Putting an emphasis on winning the actual events, like a winner's bonus, will make the fight for the finish more exciting.

Billboard's all-time list kind of does this already. A week at #1 is worth 1.5 times as much as a week at #2, and a week at #10 is worth more than twice as much as a week at #11.

Then the runner who finished first in the marathon but third overall in the triathalon - just needs to run faster and win the marathon section by more vs the competition and then they will win overall.

kind of like ADT.  It's not number 1 because it's Simply number 1 on radio. It's number 1 on the H100 because it's leading the radio competition by so much and racking up points over the competition.qq

[jenglisbe]

Aug 3, 2022 18:52:48 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 3, 2022 17:12:08 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

This is a fair question. To use the triathlon example, someone could not be the top person in any of the 3 events but still win the triathlon because they are the best in the aggregate. That seems fair.

But winning by aggregate is boring, though. Putting an emphasis on winning the actual events, like a winner's bonus, will make the fight for the finish more exciting.

Well, that aspect is your opinion, not an objective fact.

Billboard's all-time list kind of does this already. A week at #1 is worth 1.5 times as much as a week at #2, and a week at #10 is worth more than twice as much as a week at #11.

And within that, songs that didn't hit #1 often rank higher than songs that did because in the aggregate they had better chart runs. So, thank you for proving the point.

[ephelia]

Aug 3, 2022 18:52:48 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 3, 2022 17:12:08 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

This is a fair question. To use the triathlon example, someone could not be the top person in any of the 3 events but still win the triathlon because they are the best in the aggregate. That seems fair.

But winning by aggregate is boring, though. Putting an emphasis on winning the actual events, like a winner's bonus, will make the fight for the finish more exciting.

Billboard's all-time list kind of does this already. A week at #1 is worth 1.5 times as much as a week at #2, and a week at #10 is worth more than twice as much as a week at #11.

That logic could lead you to say only songs that hit number one are eligible for the YE #1 (sorry Levitating). Better yet just give the YE #1 to the song that had the most weeks at #1 during the tracking period. While I'm sure ARMY would love that, I think we can agree that that system makes much less sense than what we have.

Also, you've complained about this exact feature of the GOAT point system pretty recently...

Jun 25, 2022 15:46:25 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Jun 25, 2022 15:32:21 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Why would they change the all-time point system because of a singular incident? 

They simply should've changed mass-buying rules and Olivia would've had those weeks at #1. They didn't. That's in the past.

No need to now make adjustments on the all-time chart for its run to look better. They had the opportunity to do so in real time. 

There’s a huge gap between #1 and #2, as well as between #10 and #11. There needs to be smoothing with the Top 4, as well as the 9-12 positions.

The fact that a week at #1 is worth more than 5 times as much as a week at #11 is ridiculous.

[kimberly]

Aug 3, 2022 18:52:07 GMT -5 kindofbiased said:

Wonder what it would take for a song to hit even 500 points in the current chart climate, let alone something like 1000 points

TikTok included in streaming, probably. or Netflix Stranger Things viewership numbers getting added to "RUTH" numbers retrospectively, lol. idk

[jasper0102]

Aug 3, 2022 18:52:07 GMT -5 kindofbiased said:

Wonder what it would take for a song to hit even 500 points in the current chart climate, let alone something like 1000 points

Another WAP, or sales get a major revival in numbers, somehow.

[gs]

Can guarantee that 1,000 points will NEVER happen unless YouTube Shorts/TikTok/Reels is added into the charts, and even then, it'll be incredibly rare.

WAP had the biggest streaming debut ever with huge bundles sales and song UGC counting — and sales were divided by 5, now they're divided by as low as 7.5 — and it still fell nearly 100 points short of the mark. With today's rules, it would've debuted with about 720 points.