|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 0:03:11 GMT -5
I know we are not supposed to start the new HITS thread without some sort of numbers, but please excuse the early start of this thread. This week is going to be big. 11 major albums are being released today. Let's look at the Target circular: weeklyad.target.com/flushing-ny-11354/pages?code=Target-121111&menu_order%5B%5D=2628321#18Only 4 albums are pictured in the circular this week: Breaking Dawn Pt. 2 Sdtk.: $9.99 Green Day: $9.99 Christina Aguilera: Standard $9.99, Deluxe $12.99 One Direction: Standard $9.99, Deluxe $13.99, Deluxe + yearbook $17.99 These 5 albums are "listed" in small type in the circular: Lana Del Ray, Paradise Edition: $8.99 Soundgarden: $9.99 Whitney Houston: $9.99 Susan Boyle: $9.99 Rolling Stones: $16.99 (2 cd album) I guess the above artist's labels did not want to pay for the album to be pictured. Now, the Best Buy circular: bestbuy.shoplocal.com/bestbuy/default.aspx?action=entryflash&9 albums are pictured on page 18: Green Day: $9.99 Christina Aguilera: Standard $9.99, Deluxe $14.99 The Deftones: $9.99 The Weekend: $11.99 (3cds) Soundgarden: Standard $9.99. Deluxe $14.99 Rolling Stones: $17.99 (2 cds). Super Deluxe $26.99 (3 cds) One Direction: Standard $9.99. Deluxe $21.99 Whitney Houston: $9.99 Susan Boyle: $9.99 There are a few more releases at Amazon: www.amazon.com/s/ref=s9_dnav_bw_ir03_s?node=5174&field-binding_browse-bin=387645011&field-date=20121113&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=center-4&pf_rd_r=14TMF9HCPMK4ZW4H8C5W&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1413379062&pf_rd_i=465672Olivia Newton John & John Travolta Xamas Elvis Presley boxset Aaron Lewis Travis Barler & Yelawolf Brian Eno This is what the music industry expects for first week sales: One Direction 500k Green Day 150k (won't happen) Christina Aguilera 125k Susan Boyle 100k Breaking Dawn Pt. 2 Sdtk. 100k Whitney Houston 75k Soundgarden 75k Rolling Stones GH 60k The Weekend 50k Lana Del Ray re-release 40k (won't happen) Deftones unknown These estimates are about a month old so they could have changed. |
|
Kurt
Administrator
#1: Jacob Collier f/John Legend & Tori Kelly – "Bridge Over Troubled Water"
Joined: April 2010
Posts: 22,618 
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
Staff
|
Post by Kurt on Nov 13, 2012 0:27:13 GMT -5
Amazon discounts (with affiliate links--disclaimer): Green Day - $5Christina Aguilera - $5.99Lana Del Rey - $3.99 (for the EP, not the re-release) Soundgarden - $3.99 |
|
|
|
Post by josh on Nov 13, 2012 0:39:20 GMT -5
Best Buy: One Direction: Standard $9.99. Deluxe $21.99 I would imagine the ad is a typo for 12.99 deluxe?  |
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 13,607
|
Post by Enigma. on Nov 13, 2012 4:42:51 GMT -5
Not so sure that Lana Del Rey's 40k won't happen.. There are probably quite a few people who have become familiar with her just now after the H&M campaign (which was running in the US as well I presume) and have been waiting and considering whether to buy Born to Die or not.
The new version will help the album to break 500k at least.
|
|
HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 33,884
|
Post by HolidayGuy on Nov 13, 2012 9:32:47 GMT -5
I wonder how the Olivia/John T. holiday album will sell. Will it become Olivia's highest-charting album since Back with a Heart reached No. 59 in 1998?
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 9:48:06 GMT -5
Best Buy: One Direction: Standard $9.99. Deluxe $21.99 I would imagine the ad is a typo for 12.99 deluxe? No. Target has the exclusive Deluxe. The Best Buy Deluxe might come with a t-shirt or something. |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 10:27:23 GMT -5
The Deftones last album debuted at #6 in 2010 with 62k.
Taylor Swift will probably sell 150k this week. Taylor should be at #2 with all debuts in the rest of the Top 10.
I'm not sure if the Rolling Stones can sell 60k with the higher prices of $16.99 and $17.99.
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 10:33:03 GMT -5
Not so sure that Lana Del Rey's 40k won't happen.. There are probably quite a few people who have become familiar with her just now after the H&M campaign (which was running in the US as well I presume) and have been waiting and considering whether to buy Born to Die or not. The new version will help the album to break 500k at least. I don't know. The album is not even in the Best Buy circular and just "listed" in the Target circular. Does the album have a single at radio? Lana is much bigger in Europe than in the US. |
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 13,607
|
Post by Enigma. on Nov 13, 2012 10:39:00 GMT -5
Yes she is. Maybe it's just me hoping that 40k would happen.
|
|
hazuki
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2010
Posts: 1,114
|
Post by hazuki on Nov 13, 2012 10:39:24 GMT -5
Lana's at #4 on iTunes. Surely that bodes well. Shes higher than Christina on iTunes, and right behind The Weeknd.
|
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 13,607
|
Post by Enigma. on Nov 13, 2012 10:44:57 GMT -5
Great news! And obviously most of her sales will be digital.
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 10:47:04 GMT -5
^Thanks! It's going to be interesting. I cannot wait for the first day estimates tomorrow!
If the Rolling Stones debut in the Top 10, it would be their 37th Top 10 album.
Whitney's new GH supposedly sold 30k on the Home Shopping Network last week which will help its first week sales. If it debuts in the Top 10, it would be Whitney's 9th Top 10 album.
|
|
|
|
Post by josh on Nov 13, 2012 10:52:23 GMT -5
I would imagine the ad is a typo for 12.99 deluxe? No. Target has the exclusive Deluxe. The Best Buy Deluxe might come with a t-shirt or something. There's the regular, the Target exclusive deluxe, and the yearbook edition, which is what Best Buy must mean. Target also has deluxe + yearbook put together. Yearbook is about $15 on iTunes which is why I assume it's a typo for Best Buy. |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 10:55:46 GMT -5
I'm going to Best Buy this afternoon so I will check it out.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 12:38:24 GMT -5
My experience with these sort of weeks where everything is released all at once is that a heavy factor in the utcome will be market saturation.
Just because there are 9 or so albums being released that could make the top 10 on a standard week, does not mean that will happen.
9 albums is a lot to buy in one week. People who buy music will likely stick to the two or three favorites and you will see several albums with otherwise good potential fal through the cracks
|
|
NeRD
Diamond Member
RIHANNA NAVY
Joined: March 2010
Posts: 15,076
|
Post by NeRD on Nov 13, 2012 12:58:13 GMT -5
Waiting patiently for those one-day predictions.
|
|
Verisimilitude
8x Platinum Member
'90s Zealot
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 8,959
|
Post by Verisimilitude on Nov 13, 2012 13:56:45 GMT -5
WHISTLE A HAPPY ITUNES: Syco/Columbia’s One Direction, whose sophomore album, Take Me Home, comes out today, occupies the top two slots on the iTunes chart this morning, with two editions of the new release. The U.K. teen phenoms set an iTunes record for most U.S. pre-orders with more than 130k.
|
|
|
|
Post by josh on Nov 13, 2012 14:01:32 GMT -5
Damn. 500k looks quite likely.
|
|
Envoirment
Diamond Member
Joined: December 2009
Posts: 13,569
|
Post by Envoirment on Nov 13, 2012 14:11:40 GMT -5
Damn. 500k looks quite likely. Ye, and looking at over 1 million+ worldwide I think. The album sold over 70k first day in the UK. It was very heavily front-loaded with pre-orders though. I hope Christina will do decently. I would love for her album to become like the Burlesque Soundtrack. In that it has quite a bit of longevity! |
|
|
|
Post by josh on Nov 13, 2012 14:17:22 GMT -5
I just downloaded Lotus, to listen on my 4+ hour car trip. If I like it (hopefully) then I will buy it.  |
|
Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 13,607
|
Post by Enigma. on Nov 13, 2012 14:34:17 GMT -5
My experience with these sort of weeks where everything is released all at once is that a heavy factor in the utcome will be market saturation. Just because there are 9 or so albums being released that could make the top 10 on a standard week, does not mean that will happen. 9 albums is a lot to buy in one week. People who buy music will likely stick to the two or three favorites and you will see several albums with otherwise good potential fal through the cracks So true. But the strongest will survive although with lower peaks than usual. I bet 2 or 3 will just disappear because they don't get the exposure they need (Soundgarden, Deftones, Xtina, Boyle perhaps) |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 15:49:06 GMT -5
No. Target has the exclusive Deluxe. The Best Buy Deluxe might come with a t-shirt or something. There's the regular, the Target exclusive deluxe, and the yearbook edition, which is what Best Buy must mean. Target also has deluxe + yearbook put together. Yearbook is about $15 on iTunes which is why I assume it's a typo for Best Buy. No typo. The Yearbook edition at Best Buy is $21.99 |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 15:54:29 GMT -5
My experience with these sort of weeks where everything is released all at once is that a heavy factor in the utcome will be market saturation. Just because there are 9 or so albums being released that could make the top 10 on a standard week, does not mean that will happen. 9 albums is a lot to buy in one week. People who buy music will likely stick to the two or three favorites and you will see several albums with otherwise good potential fal through the cracks Huh? Where is this thread does it say that a consumer is going to buy all 9 albums that could possibly debut in the Top 10? No one is going to buy all 9 albums. The One Directions fans will buy the ID album. The Green Day fans will by the Dos album, etc... I based the 9 debuts in the Top 10 based on the NRS estimates. And I put a question mark after it because it might not happen. We'll know more tomorrow and even more on Thursday. The Top 10 could very well only have 7 or 8 debuts. What is the Billboard record for most debuts in the Top 10? 8, right? |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 15:57:26 GMT -5
Lana's at #4 on iTunes. Surely that bodes well. Shes higher than Christina on iTunes, and right behind The Weeknd. One of the Best Buys I went to this afternoon did not have the Lana re-release out. The other Best Buy had 4 in stock. She was not in the New Releases endcap. Same with the Target I went to. They had 4 copies. |
|
hazuki
Platinum Member
Joined: April 2010
Posts: 1,114
|
Post by hazuki on Nov 13, 2012 17:12:53 GMT -5
Lana's at #4 on iTunes. Surely that bodes well. Shes higher than Christina on iTunes, and right behind The Weeknd. One of the Best Buys I went to this afternoon did not have the Lana re-release out. The other Best Buy had 4 in stock. She was not in the New Releases endcap. Same with the Target I went to. They had 4 copies. Most of the sales will probably come from the Digital copies. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 17:18:54 GMT -5
My experience with these sort of weeks where everything is released all at once is that a heavy factor in the utcome will be market saturation. Just because there are 9 or so albums being released that could make the top 10 on a standard week, does not mean that will happen. 9 albums is a lot to buy in one week. People who buy music will likely stick to the two or three favorites and you will see several albums with otherwise good potential fal through the cracks Huh? Where is this thread does it say that a consumer is going to buy all 9 albums that could possibly debut in the Top 10? No one is going to buy all 9 albums. The One Directions fans will buy the ID album. The Green Day fans will by the Dos album, etc... I based the 9 debuts in the Top 10 based on the NRS estimates. And I put a question mark after it because it might not happen. We'll know more tomorrow and even more on Thursday. The Top 10 could very well only have 7 or 8 debuts. What is the Billboard record for most debuts in the Top 10? 8, right? Missed the point It is possible there will only be 4 or 5 to debut in the top 10. I assume you started this thread early because of all the big name releases - you even put 9 debuts in the thread title In weeks such as this. There will be some titles that stand out and there will be some titles that fall through the cracks that otherwise might not have if they were released in July or January raher than this week. Not every big name title this week will do well, some will fail due to market saturation |
|
slayZ
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 3,232
|
Post by slayZ on Nov 13, 2012 17:25:12 GMT -5
Apparently, Lotus only sold 7k mid-week in the UK. :x
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 17:53:38 GMT -5
2m, I see what you are saying now.
9 debuts is not certain. That's why I used a question mark.
Based on the final HITS' numbers, here's my "guesstimation" for next week.
1. new One Direction 500k
2. (1) Taylor Swift 140k
3. new Breaking Dawn Pt.2 Sdtk. 110k
4. new Christina Aguilera 100k
5. new Green Day 95k
6. new Susan Boyle 90k (probably lower)
7. new Whitney Houston 75k
8. new Soundgarden 70k
9. (3) Rod Stewart 50k
10. new The Weekend 50k
That's 8 debuts.
|
|
josh
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2005
Posts: 1,124
|
Post by josh on Nov 13, 2012 17:58:31 GMT -5
What does SuBo have out? I haven't heard about it.
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Nov 13, 2012 18:09:25 GMT -5
^Songs from Broadway. Is she doing any US promo this week?
josh, I'm a train nut. I wanna ride the Durango & Silverton someday.
|
|
