HITS: 11/8-9 - Taylor Swift #1, Jason Aldean #2

[Honeymoon]

Jason Aldean Represents Seventh Country Artist in a Row with Top Sales Debut

November 3, 2010

The fourth quarter finally got underway with this week's million-selling, chart-topping debut by Taylor Swift, who will certainly get another week at #1.

Based on one-day sales from those music retailers not trying to star whack Randy Quaid and his wife Evi, next week's top debut go to Broken Bow artist Jason Aldean's My Kinda Party, which is certainly not about the Republicans, but should do between 175-200k anyway.

That makes it the seventh straight week a country performer will have scored the week's top debut.

Next up, Mariah Carey gives birth to her Island/IDJ holiday album, Merry Christmas II You, expected to sell in the 50-60k range for the mom-to-be.

Neil Diamond's self-produced Columbia album, Dreams, finds him covering classics like "Ain't No Sunshine," "Blackbird," "MIdnight Train to Georgia," "Desperado" and "A Song for You" as well as a version of his own "I'm a Believer," originally performed by the Monkees. The album, which will hopefully provide some momentum for his Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction bid, should be around 30-35k.
Fader's Brooklyn indie phenoms Matt & Kim are back with a projected 20-25k for their latest, Sidewalks, the same total on tap for Arista Nashville country star Brad Paisley's Hits Alive package.

Star Trak/Interscope Neptunes rock spinoff N.E.R.D. returns with Nothing, which should do 17-20k in sales, as will Good Charlotte with their Capitol/EMI debut, Cardiology.

The market was up 12% vs. last week (of course, almost one out of five of those albums sold were by Taylor Swift), down 8% vs. same week last year and still down 13% year to date. You may now return to attempting to locate President Obama's coattails.

[Honeymoon]

I think T-Swift will have like a 68-72% second week drop which in all honesty wouldn't be bad at all considering her massive debut.

[leoapp]

Nice prediction for Mariah! :) I guess it's enough for top 5 debut.

[Deleted]

Wow great numbers for Jason! And that's pretty good for Mimi! And if Oh Santa can become big during the X-Mas season, and the promo does well hopefully it will go gold :)

[Cerbius]

I think swift is gonna sell between 300 to 350k this week, as the percentage drop is gonna be higher than usual due to its gigantic opening and the fact that it was released on a Monday.

Good numbers for Mariah as well.

[Carriefan1190]

I'm predicting a 400k 2nd week for Taylor......if she's lucky..I worry about her dropping like a rock after a HUGE first week.

[neverduplicated]

Yay for Mariah! Does anyone know if her prediction includes the HSN pre-orders? It seems I remember someone saying they wouldn't count.

[leoapp]

If it's not included HSN pre-orders, real sales should be more than 70k

[ItGirl]

Is that good for Good Charlotte?

[cjay]

Yay for Mimi!

[#LisaRinna]

MESSIAH CAREY :'(

[Me. I Am l!nk!nfan815...]

Nov 3, 2010 13:46:48 GMT -5 neverduplicated said:

Yay for Mariah! Does anyone know if her prediction includes the HSN pre-orders? It seems I remember someone saying they wouldn't count.

I remember Streisand's prediction before that infamous week didn't include her QVC sales.

[Black Jesus]

Great numbers for Aldean!

[cking33]

350-400k would be a really good 2nd week for Taylor.

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

pssst. Taylor is going to be doing close to 500k people.

[slicknickshady]

It's going to have a big drop. I think you have to pay attention to what it does in Week 3 and Week 4. How big those drops are is what's important.

[when the pawn...]

I see Taylor doing 450-500k this week.

Yikes for N.E.R.D....though not too surprising, I guess

[Peaches. [Ch, r. is]]

Usual second weeks sales drop is 50-75%, no?

Tay selling 500k would only be about a 50% drop sooOooO. She's fine either way.

[areyoureadytojump]

Most big albums fall 68-72% in their 2nd week. I'm expecting ~300k for Taylor.

[areyoureadytojump]

VERY impressed with Jason Aldean's number. Wow.

[Joe1240]

At least another week at number one for Taylor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deleted]

Those are very good numbers for Mariah. Thats a better opening week than her first Christmas album and that one came out when sales were better and at the peak of her career.

[Honeymoon]

Does Taylor have any notable promo lined up for this week? Or that she did after Sunday night this week?

[Eloqueen™]

I'm thinking Taylor will see a typical 70% drop, which would put her around 310k this week.

[Deleted]

Nov 3, 2010 13:34:46 GMT -5 Honeymoon said:

Next up, Mariah Carey gives birth to her Island/IDJ holiday album, Merry Christmas II You, expected to sell in the 50-60k range for the mom-to-be.

*in 7th heaven*

[asg4]

if Jason Aldean beats taylor it will be very interesting

[ontheroadwith]

I really think Taylor will hold on for about a 50% drop. Totally possible.

[abc]

Dead of mariah number.

[Choco]

If the Mariah album has some legs it could go Gold, that would be good considering her last few albums underperformed and the fact that it's a holiday album only. It's a good debut, let's see if she's able to perform as well in the next weeks.

I don't think it's possible for Aldean to beat Swift.

[SPRΞΞ]

Mariah's album will take a drop the next 2 weeks until after Thanksgiving. Only after then will it start to maybe go back up.