Billboard Hot 100: 10/8/11

[musik...]

I'm really not upset at all with the massive inundation of album tracks and Glee songs on the chart because the digital chart is hugely reflective of song popularity, which is what the Hot 100 is supposed to reflect. Just because their promotional tactics differ from those of a formally released single shouldn't prevent them from getting their deserved chart presence. A Glee track that makes top 10 for one week will still not compare to a song that stalled at #15 but spent 40 weeks on the chart. Longevity of an individual track has a far more cultural impact than peak chart position.

[Love Plastic Love]

Sept 25, 2011 14:13:41 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

I am not making excuses for anyone - you seem to think that anyone who appears on tv is supposed to have smash hit songs.

She should just go on Leno.

[tonytaylor]

Sept 25, 2011 14:13:41 GMT -5 Push The Button said:

I am not making excuses for anyone - you seem to think that anyone who appears on tv is supposed to have smash hit songs.

Any mainstream, already famous/well known artist really should see a huge boost to sales as it's amazing promo. As long as what they do connects with the viewing public. I can't see what would be controversial about that point of view ???

[Push The Button]

Because Leona Lewis is not going to happen in the US and her promotion will have nothing to do with it.

[kingofpain]

Um.. Did Dev peak?

[Kworb]

Hot 100 prediction based on my sales estimates

1. Moves Like Jagger (228 + 130 = 358)
2. Someone Like You (202 + 107 = 309)
3. Pumped Up Kicks (173 + 96 = 269)
4. Party Rock Anthem (143 + 90 = 233)
5. Stereo Hearts (139 + 76 = 215)
6-7. Cheers (113 + 64 = 177)
6-7. Lighters (71 + 102 = 173)
8-9. Yoü And I (110 + 58 = 168)
8-9. You Make Me Feel (103 + 65 = 168)
10-11. Sexy And I Know It (135 + 27 = 162)
10-11. Without You (117 + 45 = 162)
Super Bass (64 + 89 = 153)
How To Love (59 + 84 = 143)
Give Me Everything (45 + 90 = 135)
We Found Love (117 + 13 = 130)
Last Friday Night (40 + 85 = 125)
Good Life (42 + 81 = 123)

[KeepDeanWeird]

Looking at the numbers week after week, I'm wondering if BB will do another adjustment on the ratio of sales:airplay. It's been 2:1 again for awhile and BB prefers something like 50:50 (excluding streaming).

[HolidayGuy]

^It rarely works out that it's 50/50, though, because a lot of times, tracks are stronger in one area over the other. The airplay ratio has never changed- it's always been the audience total divided by 10,000. The sales divider has changed a few times- the highest it was in the pre-digital era was, I think, 12 (sometime in 2000). But, 10 seems to be the norm. I doubt it would raise to, say, 15.

[Lozzy]

9/26 airplay updates:[/u]

1. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 129.313 (+ 1.279)[/color]
2. BAD MEETS EVIL - Lighters f/Bruno Mars: 107.129 (- 2.565)
3. ADELE - Someone Like You: 101.546 (+ 3.213)
4. LMFAO - Party Rock Anthem: 97.083 (- 0.465)
5. FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Pumped Up Kicks: 95.329 (+ 0.958) ▲
6. NICKI MINAJ - Super Bass: 93.706 (- 1.369) ▼
7. KATY PERRY - Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.): 92.562 (- 2.765)
8. PITBULL - Give Me Everything f/Ne-Yo: 90.443 (- 2.052)
9. LIL WAYNE - How To Love: 87.728 (- 1.570)
10. ONEREPUBLIC - Good Life: 80.234 (- 0.952)
11. BRITNEY SPEARS - I Wanna Go: 77.055 (- 1.188)
12. GYM CLASS HEROES - Stereo Hearts f/Adam Levine: 73.333 (+ 1.433)
13. ADELE - Rolling In The Deep: 69.350 (- 0.848)
14. COBRA STARSHIP - You Make Me Feel... f/Sabi: 65.799 (+ 1.056) ▲
15. RIHANNA - Cheers (Drink To That): 64.585 (- 0.584) ▼
16. DJ KHALED - I'm On One f/Drake, Rick Ross: 64.208 (- 0.653) ▼
17. DEV - In The Dark: 58.787 (+ 0.197)
18. LADY GAGA - You And I: 56.779 (+ 0.255)
19. HOT CHELLE RAE - Tonight Tonight: 55.658 (- 0.747)
20. RODNEY ATKINS - Take A Back Road: 52.986 (- 0.212)

TOBY KEITH - Made In America: 51.373 (- 0.005)
THE BAND PERRY - If I Die Young: 50.649 (- 1.929)
DRAKE - Headlines: 49.805 (+ 1.248)

[Source]

The remainder of the under-20 section is yet to be updated. I'll try to remember to keep checking for when it is, but you can check yourself with my source link.

[HolidayGuy]

Thanks, Slizzard.

Looking at current trends, "Someone Like You" should reach No. 2 airplay come Wednesday.

[Envoirment]

Here's the rest of it:

KELLY ROWLAND - Motivation f/Lil Wayne: 49.507 (- 1.413)
KEITH URBAN - Long Hot Summer: 47.518 (- 0.234)
DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 43.797 (+ 1.535)
BIG SEAN - Marvin & Chardonnay: 41.658 (+ 0.514)
KELLY CLARKSON - Mr. Know It All: 36.024 (+ 1.938)
ALEXANDRA STAN - Mr. Saxobeat: 35.118 (+ 1.044)
MIRANDA LAMBERT - Baggage Claim: 32.898 (- 0.056)
THE SCRIPT - Nothing: 31.789 (+ 0.522)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Sparks Fly: 30.924 (+ 0.400)
JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 28.193 (+ 0.506)
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS - Adventures Of Rain Dance...: 23.853 (+ 0.064)
LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 23.677 (+ 0.894)
NICKI MINAJ - Fly f/Rihanna: 20.813 (+ 0.891)
RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 9.037 (+ 1.720)
SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE - Love You Like A Love Song: 7.457 (+ 0.313)
BLINK 182 - Up All Night: 7.345 (- 0.052)
COLDPLAY - Paradise: 6.061 (+ 0.365)
EVANESCENCE - What You Want: 4.966 (+ 0.058)
BRITNEY SPEARS - Criminal: 4.344 (+ 0.437)

Great update today for The Script ^^

[spooky21]

I haven't been as perplexed about the success of a song as I have been by "Moves Like Jagger." Is it doing so well because most of the top twenty are falling songs that reached critical mass earlier in the summer? It's as if summer had a whole bunch of supercompetitive and overplayed songs that all hit together but there were no "like" material to replace them in August/Sept cycle so a few atypical song (by current radio trends) are now shooting to the top. Look at the number of negative AIs in the top 20! It's as if Radio is in a holding period and refusing to reset for the fall period.

I'm picking on MLJ because it is not a dance floor anthem, unlike most of of #1s this summer and past year, and it is not necessarily a song that has ascended into the cultural space. It is also not a song I would imagine teenagers would be singing along to. I can rationalize it's airplay success, but the fact that it is also selling so well just seems weird.

[tonytaylor]

I think its days at #1 may be numbered but you never know with this song - it seems to have a life all of its own, lol.

[tonytaylor]

Sept 26, 2011 9:37:53 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Thanks, Slizzard.

Looking at current trends, "Someone Like You" should reach No. 2 airplay come Wednesday.

It could even be tomorrow!

[HolidayGuy]

All of those factors could be playing a part in the success- we can see that the airplay top 20 is pretty short on big-rising tracks.

Maroon 5 has been pretty successful at the Hot AC format, so this is another big hit for it there.

Big play at pop radio often results in big sales, so that's enough of a sales catalyst there.

[LegendaryLover]

In about a week or so, Adele can easily sit at the top for a long long time. Who looks like it's gonna dethrone Adele?

[@DiegoMarcondes_]

MORE MEDIABASE

GEORGE STRAIT -Here For A Good Time= 42.251 (+0.331)
BLAKE SHELTON -God Gave Me You= 40.978 (+0.080)
TRACE ADKINS -Just Fishin'= 41.021 (+0.481)
LIL WAYNE -She Will f/Drake= 41.653 (+0.981)
LADY ANTEBELLUM -Just A Kiss= 40.076 (-0.070)
ELI YOUNG BAND -Crazy Girl= 37.057 (+0.274)
JASON DERULO -It Girl= 28.191 (+0.724)
THOMPSON SQUARE -I Got You= 26.923 (+0.151)
LADY ANTEBELLUM -We Owned The Night= 26.453 (+0.592)
ANDY GRAMMER - Keep Your Head Up= 25.444 (+0.205)
NEW BOYZ -Better With The Lights Off= 25.328 (+0.251)
WALE - That Way f/Jeremih & Rick Ross= 23.714 (+0.194)
CHRIS BROWN -Wet The Bed= 23.704 (+0.417)
RASCAL FLATTS -Easy= 21.878 (+0.682)
JASON ALDEAN - Tattoos On This Town= 20.033 (+0.907)
MINDLESS BEHAVIOR -Mrs. Right f/Diggy Simmons= 19.978 (+0.493)
FOO FIGHTERS - Walk= 19.197 (+0.021)
ACE HOOD -Body 2 Body f/Chris Brown= 17.389 (+0.572)
THE BAND PERRY - All Your Life= 16.686 (+0.144)
J. COLE -Workout= 15.266 (+0.330)
MATT NATHANSON -Faster= 15.095 (+0.617)
COLBIE CAILLAT -Brighter Than The Sun= 14.004 (-0.106)
LLOYD -Dedication To My Ex...= 13.530 (+0.247)
CEE LO GREEN -Fool For You f/Melanie Fiona= 12.567 (-0.082)
SEAN PAUL -Got 2 Luv U f/Alexis Jordan= 12.525 (+0.131)
ZAC BROWN BAND -Keep Me In Mind= 12.952 (+0.676)
GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You = 11.984 (+0.563)
BEYONCE - Party f/Kanye & Andre= 11.842 (+ 0.438)
BUSH - The Sound Of Winter= 11.025 (+0.274)
KELLY ROWLAND -Lay It On Me f/Big Sean= 10.559 (+0.051)
KELLIE PICKLER -Tough= 7.861 (-0.005)
PATRICK STUMP -This City f/Lupe Fiasco= 7.932 (+0.078)
SEETHER -Tonight= 7.618 (-0.050)
T-PAIN -5 O'clock f/Wiz Khalifa & Lily Allen = 7.370 (+1.106)
DEMI LOVATO - Skyscraper = 7.051 (-0.107)
TYRESE -Stay= 6.427 (+0.092)
LUKE BRYAN -I Don’t Want This Night To End= 6.759 (+0.902)
MARTINA MCBRIDE -I'm Gonna Love You Through It= 6.274 (+0.132)
MAT KEARNEY-Hey Mama= 5.261 (-0.005)
CHRIS YOUNG -You= 5.123 (+0.206)
CHRIS BROWN - Beautiful People= 4.642 (+0.212)
MELANIE FIONA -4 AM= 4.316 (+0.007)
MICHELLE BRANCH -Loud Music= 4.166 (+0.181)
DAUGHTRY - Crawling Back To You= 3.931 (+0.588)
BIRDMAN -Y.U. Mad f/Nicki Minaj= 3.811 (+0.167)
YOUNG THE GIANT -Cough Syrup= 3.608 (+0.057)
INCUBUS -Promises, Promises= 3.517 (+0.018)
LAUREN ALAINA -Like My Mother Does= 3.492 (-0.011)
FLO RIDA -Good Feeling= 3.459 (+0.289)
JESSIE J -Domino= 3.427 (+0.324)
MARY J. BLIGE -25/8= 3.165 (+0.120)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS -I Like How It Feels= 3.060 (+0.361)
FOSTER THE PEOPLE - Helena Beat= 3.050 (-0.143)
SIMPLE PLAN -Jet Lag f/Natasha Bedingfield= 2.216 (+0.083)
SCOTTY MCCREERY -The Trouble With Girls= 1.977 (+0.146)
NICKELBACK -When We Stand Together= 1.953 (+0.589)
BEYONCE -Love On Top= 1.874 (-0.063)
FLORENCE + THE MACHINE - What The Water Gave Me= 1.857 (+0.114)
BEYONCE -Countdown= 1.627 (-0.012)
DEATH CAB FOR CUTIE -Stay Young, Go Dancing= 1.590 (+0.023)
NICKELBACK -Bottoms Up= 1.563 (+0.390)
JAY Z & KANYE WEST -Why I Love You f/Mr. Hudson= 1.544 (+0.112)
SNOW PATROL -Called Out In The Dark= 1.442 (+0.019)
CAGE THE ELEPHANT - Aberdeen= 1.271 (=)
NOEL GALLAGHER -If I Had A Gun= 1.252 (-0.018)
CASEY JAMES-Let's Don't Call It A Night= 1.190 (+0.044)
WE THE KINGS -Say You Like Me= 1.132 (+0.050)
NICOLE SCHERZINGER -Don't Hold Your Breath= 1.066 (+0.147)
MARIO -The Walls f/Fabolous= 0.946 (+0.113)
FEIST -How Come You Never Go There= 0.945 (-0.001)
FOO FIGHTERS -These Days= 0.843 (+0.043)
ELLIE GOULDING -Lights= 0.717 (+0.014)
HOT CHELLE RAE -I Like It Like That f/New Boyz= 0.747 (+0.049)
ESTELLE -Thank You= 0.749 (+0.079)
KATY PERRY -One That Got Away= 0.335 (+0.089)
JOJO - Disaster!!! = 0.258 (+0.013)
DAUGHTRY -Renegade= 0.197 (+0.035)
V V BROWN -Children (Keep On Singing)=0.091 (+0.030)
LEONA LEWIS -Collide= 0.045 (+0.004)
AVRIL LAVIGNE - Wish You Were Here = 0.014 (+0.003)

[tonytaylor]

Sept 26, 2011 10:29:55 GMT -5 LegendaryLover said:

In about a week or so, Adele can easily sit at the top for a long long time. Who looks like it's gonna dethrone Adele?

Looking at the AI chart I genuinely couldn't give you an answer! Even potential AI #1s like Rihanna and Kelly Clarkson are only experiencing less than 2m daily updates and are still way behind. I think XL/Columbia have timed this release perfectly.

[Enigma.]

KELLY CLARKSON - Mr. Know It All: 36.024 (+ 1.938)
Very good going!

[HolidayGuy]

Thanks, Diego. What happened to "Papi" in that report? It should be smashing its way through the 1 million barrier any day now.

[shoocoochoocoo]

alexandra's update is wrongly calculated. i wish it were over 1 million but it's somewhere at +0.4

[bat1990]

I'm so happy that "Lights" is moving pretty well at HotAC. Hopefully CHR will take notice.

Also, I hope Dev did not peak. I love that song too much to lose hope yet.

[felipe]

Sept 25, 2011 11:30:41 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Sept 25, 2011 10:07:49 GMT -5 felipe said:

But Glee songs are released as singles, they are not just album tracks.

But Glee songs have zero airplay.

They have zero airplay at radio but 10 million people listen to this songs on TV, so that's different from an album track which is unheard of by the general public.

[Caviar]

Adele is going to dominate #1 most of Oct, all of Nov, and flirt w/ Dec.

[Arabella21]

Sept 26, 2011 14:59:47 GMT -5 felipe said:

Sept 25, 2011 11:30:41 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

But Glee songs have zero airplay.

They have zero airplay at radio but 10 million people listen to this songs on TV, so that's different from an album track which is unheard of by the general public.

[Blahblahblah]The Hot 100 doesn't exist to measure a song's popularity on TV.[/blahblahblah] But if a song that's already being promoted to radio has a dramatic sales spike after a performance on TV, well, that's totally different and completely okay for the Hot 100 to measure. You know, just as long as those icky Glee songs and album tracks aren't ruining the purity of the charts...

[tonytaylor]

Sept 26, 2011 15:50:01 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Adele is going to dominate #1 most of Oct, all of Nov, and flirt w/ Dec.

I'm sure you are right - and SLY is going to sell the album at the crucial Xmas sales period. Huge sales of single and album coming up.....

[livelikedying111]

Sept 26, 2011 16:12:51 GMT -5 tonytaylor said:

Sept 26, 2011 15:50:01 GMT -5 Caviar said:

Adele is going to dominate #1 most of Oct, all of Nov, and flirt w/ Dec.

I'm sure you are right - and SLY is going to sell the album at the crucial Xmas sales period. Huge sales of single and album coming up.....

I know you guys are right and it makes me so happy. After last year's disappointing christmas sales (250K for Taylor Swift, really?!) it's nice to have something to look forward too.

[nighttime]

It's kinda surprising a video was never made for "Someone Like You". Not that it needs it, clearly, but you'd think that with the success of "Rolling In The Deep"'s video they'd want to captalize on that medium with the next single.

[tonytaylor]

When people can pop onto youtube and see a LIVE performance like this, maybe not having a 'staged' video isn't such a bad idea after all! :)

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Sept 26, 2011 15:55:43 GMT -5 Arabella21 said:

Sept 26, 2011 14:59:47 GMT -5 felipe said:

They have zero airplay at radio but 10 million people listen to this songs on TV, so that's different from an album track which is unheard of by the general public.

[Blahblahblah]The Hot 100 doesn't exist to measure a song's popularity on TV.[/blahblahblah] But if a song that's already being promoted to radio has a dramatic sales spike after a performance on TV, well, that's totally different and completely okay for the Hot 100 to measure. You know, just as long as those icky Glee songs and album tracks aren't ruining the purity of the charts...

Not to defend Glee songs because I personally would rather a Hot 100 without them as well but why should the chart not measure the effects of TV every week? I think as a whole, the Hot 100 should be looking for ways to measure as much as it can and while they probably can't measure "audience" properly from TV show appearances the way they can with the audience of a spin on radio, they can still measure the direct results through outlets like iTunes so I think it's the next best thing. The same thing applies to a new indie song that gets played on some random teen drama and then suddenly gets tons of digital purchases from curiosity which also leads to radio requests and bam! you have a hit.