Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:17:36 GMT -5
With Wide Awake falling to #4, Lights looks like the next #1
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Aug 8, 2012 14:18:46 GMT -5
Wow, "Lights"! I really expected "Lights" to be #4 behind "Whistle" (#2) and "Wide Awake" (#3). Stupid "Home" kept "Some Nights" from the top 10! >:( With Wide Awake falling to #4, Lights looks like the next #1 Maybe. Next week is really its only shot. "Whistle" is coming fast, and will more than likely be ahead in streaming in two weeks time, which is where "Lights" is strongest at. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:22:44 GMT -5
If Carly can hold on for one more week, she'll tie Debby Boone's record.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:27:26 GMT -5
What record does Debby Boone hold?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:32:55 GMT -5
Longest run at #1 for a female artist's debut single.
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 8, 2012 14:33:14 GMT -5
If Lights does reach #1 next week it will:
a) Beat the Macarena for longest climb to #1 on the Hot 100
b) Extend a streak of 4 #1 songs being an artist's first song charting on the Hot 100.
c) Extend a streak of 3 #1 songs by a foreign artist.
It will also be awesome.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:41:32 GMT -5
They were quite stingy with giving any on-demand rankings/data this week. It'd be nice if we had an article for the top 10 streaming like we get for the top 10 digital each week.
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irice22
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listening to Kesha. Always.
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Post by irice22 on Aug 8, 2012 14:46:35 GMT -5
I'm so anxious for "Some Nights" to make the Top 10! Screw "Home"!
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alchemy
Charting
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Post by alchemy on Aug 8, 2012 14:46:52 GMT -5
The blindingly successful "Lights" by Ellie Goulding continues to barrel up the chart track, motoring 5-2. The track, which returns to No. 1 on On-Demand Songs, jumps 5-4 on Hot 100 Airplay (up 5% in audience impressions) and slips 7-8 on Hot Digital Songs (120,000, down 2%), could very well illuminate the top of the Hot 100 next week. I just can't...  I've been playing "Lights" on Spotify lately to help it and I'll be buying it on iTunes later this week even though I imported "Bright Lights" the day it was released in the UK. Remixes count for the song right? On a related note, "Lights" matches Ellie's highest peak on the UK chart. She hit #2 with a cover of Elton John's "Your Song" which was helped immensely by a Christmas advert that ran non-stop in the country. |
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popstop
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Post by popstop on Aug 8, 2012 14:48:09 GMT -5
I posted this a couple weeks ago, but I believe this also means that this is the longest period the Hot 100 has ever gone without an American artist at #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:57:48 GMT -5
I'm so anxious for "Some Nights" to make the Top 10! Screw "Home"! Actually this is working in Some Nights' favour. They will likely still be held off next week due to Home still being there, and perhaps moreso due to I Will Wait's release. The earliest it can enter the top 10 at this point is its 25th week, and it will likely take longer due to these releases. Ellie recently took 27 weeks to enter the top 10 and is now looking like a contender to break the longest trip to #1. With the way things are shaping up, fun. might challenge the record not too long after Ellie sets it. :kii: |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 14:58:23 GMT -5
"Call Me Maybe," #1 for a 9th week?!? And a 10th week is possible? Ok, it's official, the chart moves wayyyyyy too slow now.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 15:04:41 GMT -5
Of course, they don't give half of the actual figures when I want to use them.  The airplay is based on last weeks figures and the increase/decreases we got this week, while the On-Demand Streaming is incredibly rounded, I don't know the trends there, but: Lights : 120k sales, 114.5 AI, 900k ODS Wide Awake : 130k sales, 116.6 AI, 550k ODS Whistle : 226k sales, 60 AI, 650k ODS Call Me Maybe : 166k sales, 104 AI, 900k ODS If this theoretical formula (100M AI = 100k/0.65 sales = 100k/0.05 ODS) is correct, then the points would be: Call Me Maybe = 166 * 0.65 + 104 + 900 * 0.05 = 256.9Lights = 120 * 0.65 + 114.5 + 900 * 0.05 = 237.5Whistle = 226 * 0.65 + 60 + 650 * 0.05 = 239.4Wide Awake = 130 * 0.65 + 116.6 + 550 * 0.05 = 228.6It seems legit. If it's correct, then streaming only counts for around 15-20% of overall chart points. |
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Post by Rocky on Aug 8, 2012 15:06:58 GMT -5
The earliest it can enter the top 10 at this point is its 25th week, and it will likely take longer due to these releases.  No. :'( Some Nights to #1 now! (Okey, maybe longevity is an important factor too...) |
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Aug 8, 2012 15:14:54 GMT -5
9 Home  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 15:16:51 GMT -5
It seems legit. If it's correct, then streaming only counts for around 15-20% of overall chart points. Which takes us back to the original issue of the ratio of sales to airplay going from 100k sales = 100M AI to a much more airplay-heavy ratio, which of course causes the chart to stagnate like crazy. |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 8, 2012 15:18:07 GMT -5
I think that Lights must have had monstrous gains on the On- Demand chart this week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 15:21:59 GMT -5
I predict that whichever song gets #1 next week (assuming CMM doesn't hold at #1 again) won't be there for long; maybe even just a week.
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Aug 8, 2012 15:44:51 GMT -5
I wish Lights would just sell a BIT more and it would have a #1 sealed up with its audience and streaming numbers. Any chance of a quickie remix or massive discount for this/next week?
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Aug 8, 2012 15:52:19 GMT -5
The points for #2-4 (and maybe #1-4) must have been crazy close this week.
I am an Ellie Goulding fan, and have been for years now, but I still kinda feel like this is such an odd song to become a big hit -- most of the recent #1s have had some sort of "cultural phenomenon" element to them, while "Lights" is simply a good song that people seem to like without needing it associated with some major viral component.
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Aug 8, 2012 16:05:28 GMT -5
If ypu want to support Ligjts, purchase the remixes.
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Aug 8, 2012 16:16:42 GMT -5
With Wide Awake falling to #4, Lights looks like the next #1 I wanted the #1 but her team deserves it...they have marketed this entire era perfectly and then they wait to discount the song until its too late. So had they not discounted at least it wouldn't look cheap. They did and so not only is it cheap it didn't achieve the #1. Egg on their faces and shame on them. We can't assume she will have an 8th #1 in the future. Should have discounted 1 or 2 weeks ago. TBH >:( |
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Keelzit
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Post by Keelzit on Aug 8, 2012 16:19:18 GMT -5
Lights for #1. Then Katy. Flo Rida can wait
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popstop
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Post by popstop on Aug 8, 2012 17:14:26 GMT -5
I generally like Katy's songs, but my support of her on the charts has dwindled over time. I rooted for her on CG, but was lukewarm by the time we got to ET. The shenanigans pulled with TGIF were a maor turnoff (and yes, I realize lots of other acts have tried discounts and remixes) and I've found myself actively rooting against the last couple songs. I'm sure I'll pull for Katy once I've been given a chance to take a break from her.
My hopes are on Ellie, for one because it's a more interesting chart topper and for another, there are some interesting records that could be set with it hitting #1. That said, while I think this week is her best chance at #1, I'd say it's a slim chance. Luckily for Ellie, high airplay is more a benefit these days than sales.
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skizzo
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Post by skizzo on Aug 8, 2012 17:22:42 GMT -5
So tired of Call Me Maybe, one of the worst songs of the year for me.
Hoping for Ligths next week
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Post by Quixotic Music Lover on Aug 8, 2012 18:03:18 GMT -5
Of course, they don't give half of the actual figures when I want to use them. The airplay is based on last weeks figures and the increase/decreases we got this week, while the On-Demand Streaming is incredibly rounded, I don't know the trends there, but: Lights : 120k sales, 114.5 AI, 900k ODS Wide Awake : 130k sales, 116.6 AI, 550k ODS Whistle : 226k sales, 60 AI, 650k ODS Call Me Maybe : 166k sales, 104 AI, 900k ODS If this theoretical formula (100M AI = 100k/0.65 sales = 100k/0.05 ODS) is correct, then the points would be: Call Me Maybe = 166 * 0.65 + 104 + 900 * 0.05 = 256.9Lights = 120 * 0.65 + 114.5 + 900 * 0.05 = 237.5Whistle = 226 * 0.65 + 60 + 650 * 0.05 = 239.4Wide Awake = 130 * 0.65 + 116.6 + 550 * 0.05 = 228.6It seems legit. If it's correct, then streaming only counts for around 15-20% of overall chart points. Thanks for posting this. I have been trying to estimate the chart points for the past few weeks using the following assumptions: Sales = 1 point for every 15 downloads (used to be 1:10, and before August, 11, 2007, 1:5, so I am guessing Billboard kept the same pattern). Airplay = 1 point for every 10,000 audience impressions (no change) On-Demand Songs = 1 point for every 250 on-demand streams (Billboard indicated that on demand streaming would be weighted double the passive streaming, passive streaming was 1 point for every 500 streams). Using those ratios I came up with: Call Me Maybe = 25,067 points (previous week 26,093) Lights = 23,050 points (previous week 22,425) Billboard does not publish passive streaming #s so that is one piece of data that is missing. |
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Post by franzjoseph on Aug 8, 2012 18:52:12 GMT -5
If that above points are true then Call Me Maybe still has a huge lead and probably will hold onto #1 for a 10th week  |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Aug 8, 2012 19:22:31 GMT -5
Something's wrong with that though, according to that formula, Whistle is ahead of Lights.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 20:26:27 GMT -5
Something's wrong with that though, according to that formula, Whistle is ahead of Lights. We don't know the actual streaming or airplay data, his numbers were guesses which he plugged into the formula |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 21:32:27 GMT -5
Lights for #1. Then Katy. Flo Rida can wait If Katy doesn't get #1 next week, I don't think she's getting it. |
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