Billboard Hot 100: 08/18/2012

[Deleted]

There doesn't appear to be an interest in having a separate Bubbling Under thread so I will do ahead and delete it

[icefire9]

56 59 18 Of Monsters And Men, Little Talks

So close to top 50! Is this getting any airplay outside of Alternative radio?

Edit: I'll answer my own question, its currently top 30 on HAC and rising, hopefully it goes for pop adds soon!

[popstop]

Aug 9, 2012 12:58:16 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Aug 9, 2012 12:18:50 GMT -5 popstop said:

^ Barbados

That's Rihanna, not Nicki.

Oops.

Also, I am interested in the Bubbling Under thread.

[bauhaus]

Aug 9, 2012 6:57:54 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

It is fun to speculate, but frankly I think BB makes it unduly complicated (and I wish they would stop changing the point system part way through a chart year, it skews the year-end results). I use my own simple version of sales 1:1, on-demand 1:10, and airplay 1:1000. It gives different results, but I prefer it since it gives more weight to sales.

With Lights at No. 2 this week, we can be sure that streaming accounts for a very high % of the Hot 100. (We r talking about a song that is not on top 2 airplay and is lagging on sales).

[Au$tin]

Aug 9, 2012 15:27:45 GMT -5 bauhaus said:

Aug 9, 2012 6:57:54 GMT -5 Quixotic Music Lover said:

It is fun to speculate, but frankly I think BB makes it unduly complicated (and I wish they would stop changing the point system part way through a chart year, it skews the year-end results). I use my own simple version of sales 1:1, on-demand 1:10, and airplay 1:1000. It gives different results, but I prefer it since it gives more weight to sales.

With Lights at No. 2 this week, we can be sure that streaming accounts for a very high % of the Hot 100. (We r talking about a song that is not on top 2 airplay and is lagging on sales).

Call Me Maybe: #3 Digital; #5 Radio; #2 Streaming
Lights: #8 Digital; #4 Radio; #1 Streaming
Whistle: #2 Digital; #12 Radio; #5 Streaming
Wide Awake: #5 Digtial; #2 Radio; #8 Streaming
Payphone: #11 Digital; #1 Radio; #4 Streaming
Somebody That I Used to Know: #15 Digital; #6 Radio; #3 Streaming
Where Have You Been: #26 Digital; #3 Radio; #28 Streaming
Titanium: #13 Digital; #8 Radio; #10 Streaming
Home: #1 Digital; #xx Radio; #xx Streaming
Blow Me (One Last Kiss): #10 Digital; #10 Radio; #xx Streaming

Top 3 streaming not on Hot 100:
1. Midnight City #19
2. The Motto #24
3. HYFR #31

[Deleted]

The fact that Where Have You Been is #7 with a #26 digital and #28 streaming ranking pretty much proves that the formula is airplay heavy, not streaming.

[jebsib]

This week, the Streaming GREATEST GAINER stays put bulleted on the Hot 100 at #41. The song (by One Direction) falls about 15 notches on both airplay and sales, but as the greatest gainer on streaming, wouldn't it be higher on the big chart if Streaming really had such a big overall impact?

[Deleted]

^Once again the issue is airplay being weighted too much.

[fridayteenage]

Yay; I just recently got a copy of Our Song so I helped contribute to yet another Goddess Swift milestone.

[Enigma.]

Could be the case of bigger weighted impact but also streaming and sales figures could be very close to each other. We don't exactly know how much a #26 song sold compared to #10 but according to Kworb, the gap is not very significant although it's big in positions. For example #11 in Itunes is at 0.42 and #30 0.22. The gap between #3 and #10 in airplay is much bigger.

[chocolatethunder]

Aug 9, 2012 13:18:42 GMT -5 @2m said:

There doesn't appear to be an interest in having a separate Bubbling Under thread so I will do ahead and delete it

Trust me even if it doesn't get many comments the info and sales numbers , airplay information in all forms is greatly appreciated, this info is what keeps me on this board and is by the best thing i read every morning, thank u!

[Au$tin]

Aug 9, 2012 16:56:30 GMT -5 Codex said:

The fact that Where Have You Been is #7 with a #26 digital and #28 streaming ranking pretty much proves that the formula is airplay heavy, not streaming.

Yep. I think airplay needs to be lowered a bit.

100.000 AI = 100 pts
100,000 sales = 100 pts
1,000,000 streams = 100 pts*

*Maybe 800,000 streams = 100 pts? That'd be a bit hard, though.

[Deleted]

I think it should be something like

100,000 AI = 100 points
100,000 sales = 80 points
1,000,000 streams = 50 points

Sales are growing fast, while airplay stays the same, so naturally airplay does need somewhat of a boost compared to 2007 or whenever the ratio was last changed.

[Deleted]

100 AI = 90 points
100k sales = 100 points
1m streams = 120 points

So a song that was big on all 3 at the same time maybe has 250k sales; 1m streams; 150AI.
That puts its points at: 250 + 120 + 135

Which means sales are half and airplay/streaming are the other half.

[pnobelysk]

content.usatoday.com/communities/idolchatter/post/2012/08/home-gives-phillip-phillips-weeks-top-selling-single/1

Phillip Phillips, Home (228,000 weekly, +472%, 844,000 total)
Carrie Underwood, Blown Away (65,000, +81%, 364,000)
Kelly Clarkson, Dark Side (50,000 +6%, 291,000)
Kelly Clarkson, Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You) 26,000, -6%, 3.645 million)
Jennifer Lopez feat. Pitbull, Dance Again (24,000, 0 change, 976,000)
Carrie Underwood, Good Girl (16,000, -10%, 1.267 million)
Brad Paisley/Carrie Underwood, Remind Me (6,000 -3%, 1.611 million)
Jason Aldean/Kelly Clarkson, Don't You Wanna Stay (6,000, -8%, 2.134 million)
Mandisa, Good Morning (5,000, -2%, 163,000)
Carrie Underwood, Before He Cheats (4,000, -8%, 3.543 million)
Carrie Underwood, How Great Thou Art (2,000, +1%, 351,000)

[Au$tin]

I don't know if this is a good formula or anything, but it's something I tired out. Just randomly tossed out some numbers of 5 random songs. I gave four songs numbers of what the top 4 songs might look like currently and then the fifth song I gave numbers based on a decently hyped debut with over 400k in sales. (I gave it just over 30 mill AI and 100k streams).

Song A - roughly 850k streams, 110 AI, and 180k sales, landed at #1
Song B - roughly 750k streams, 100 AI, and 215k sales, landed at #3
Song C - roughly 850k streams, 140 AI, and 150k sales, landed at #2
Song D - roughly 1mil streams, 105 AI, and 175k sales, landed at #4
Song E - roughly 100k streams, 30 AI, and 415k sales, landed at #5

The songs weren't really given points, but popularity bars for each format. I have the graph if anyone would like to see it.

I'm not sure, but I think it gives everything an even weight, meaning that the two formats the public control add together to make 66% of the chart points. IDK... just something I did for fun.

I'd REALLY love to test it out with this week's #s, but I don't think we have all the streaming, sale, and airplay info for the entire top 5 this week.

[icefire9]

We have last week's though.

Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.

[Au$tin]

Oh, sweet! I didn't think we had all of the streaming numbers.

[icefire9]

Yeah, they didn't say anything about streaming this week, not even a percent increase, despite being very accurate about that stuff last week.

[Au$tin]

So using all of last week's numbers on the top 5 and the same method I used on the hypothetical numbers last time, here is what the top five came out to be (last week):

1. Call Me Maybe
2. Payphone
3. Lights
4. Wide Awake
5. Whistle

CMM was clearly on top. PP and Lights were really close, and then WA and Whistle were very close.

Thoughts?

BTW, my hypothetical debut of 415k sales, 100k streams, and 30 AI landed beneath the entire top 5 last week using the same method.

[icefire9]

Perhaps you could lower the wieght of streaming.

[WotUNeed]

Given what the Hot 100 is trying to measure, doesn't having a formula skewed slightly in favor if airplay make sense? I mean, if I fail to change the station each time Song A comes on, and many other listeners are like me, and this leads the station to have good ratings (for playing what the audience is willing to hear), which leads to increased airplay for Song A... people are making money every time Song A is spun. People are making money every time I stream Song A on demand, too, but that is not only likely less revenue for each entity as I believe more entities split whatever pittance is generated, but also, my stream of Song A is guaranteed to reach a far smaller audience than a radio spin, which means less revenue is being generated as an indirect result of me having streamed it. If I buy Song A, I generate revenue at the time of the sale... and that's it. I don't ever need to buy it again or stream it again to play it on my device of choice.

Just my thoughts, though admittedly this is spitballing, so I could very well completely have failed to take into account significant factors that make that entire point of view useless.

[Lozzy]

Aug 10, 2012 20:27:07 GMT -5 WotUNeed said:

Given what the Hot 100 is trying to measure, doesn't having a formula skewed slightly in favor if airplay make sense? I mean, if I fail to change the station each time Song A comes on, and many other listeners are like me, and this leads the station to have good ratings (for playing what the audience is willing to hear), which leads to increased airplay for Song A... people are making money every time Song A is spun. People are making money every time I stream Song A on demand, too, but that is not only likely less revenue for each entity as I believe more entities split whatever pittance is generated, but also, my stream of Song A is guaranteed to reach a far smaller audience than a radio spin, which means less revenue is being generated as an indirect result of me having streamed it. If I buy Song A, I generate revenue at the time of the sale... and that's it. I don't ever need to buy it again or stream it again to play it on my device of choice.

Just my thoughts, though admittedly this is spitballing, so I could very well completely have failed to take into account significant factors that make that entire point of view useless.

The main argument for down-weighting airplay is that airplay puts too much power into the hands of a small number of people. While PD's do carry out listener surveys and look at iTunes and so on, there's nothing really stopping a PD from spinning a song that nobody likes. If it was just one song, I doubt it would affect their ratings; nobody likes every song on a station's playlist. And either way, listener impressions are not 'live' figures - if you hear a song you don't like/from a rival diva and turn the radio off, that won't make an immediate difference. Audience figures seem to be re-calibrated just a few times a year. So if Z100 decided to put "Hot Problems" in power today and other stations followed their lead, the song would be registered as a huge airplay hit regardless of listener satisfaction.

Contrary to that, I am all for airplay being weighted as highly as possible, but that's more for personal reasons than actual logic or anything.

[Deleted]

Aug 10, 2012 16:26:32 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

We have last week's though.

Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.

(100M AI = 100k/0.65 sales = 100k/0.05 ODS)

Call Me Maybe: 271.1
Wide Awake: 244.15
Payphone: 243.5
Whistle: 237,.75
Lights: 230.7

Didn't even realize how close all these songs were. The charts are pretty weak right now. A 420k debut could have been #1 without any airplay or streaming points. Austins hypothetical debut would have had 304.75 points according to the above formula. Boyfriend had 378.65 points on its debut week, and fun. had 399! I think with a good song, Ke$ha or Taylor could potentially debut at number one if they release soon.

[icefire9]

Very interesting, its definitely as sign that Call Me Maybe is fading and there is no clear succesor, which is probably why she been getting so many weeks at #1.

I'm not surprised that all those songs were really close together either. Last week, Lights jumped from #5 to #2 without gaining a whole lot. It makes sense considering it only had to gain maybe 15 points to do that.

[josh]

Aug 11, 2012 8:07:51 GMT -5 Codex said:

Aug 10, 2012 16:26:32 GMT -5 icefire9 said:

We have last week's though.

Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.

(100M AI = 100k/0.65 sales = 100k/0.05 ODS)

Call Me Maybe: 271.1
Wide Awake: 244.15
Payphone: 243.5
Whistle: 237,.75
Lights: 230.7

Didn't even realize how close all these songs were. The charts are pretty weak right now. A 420k debut could have been #1 without any airplay or streaming points. Austins hypothetical debut would have had 304.75 points according to the above formula. Boyfriend had 378.65 points on its debut week, and fun. had 399! I think with a good song, Ke$ha or Taylor could potentially debut at number one if they release soon.

And here is Taylor's song now! :O

[skizzo]

shame Taylor is gonna block Lights from reaching #1. Her music sucks.

[icefire9]

Aug 13, 2012 19:21:03 GMT -5 skizzo said:

shame Taylor is gonna block Lights from reaching #1. Her music sucks.

She probably won't. Taylor's song won't debut until the week after this week. The sales week in which Ellie could hit #1 is already over, after this week I'm pretty sure Whistle would pass it anyway.

[josh]

It's a little too early to be saying that. We don't know how well it will perform on iTunes yet. If it gets song #2 to 50% and stays there several days, gets good airplay, then we can speculate about a #1, but to say it's certain is silly at this point.

[Honeymoon]

Is it going to be available at streaming outlets beginning this week like Spotify etc? That could make the difference...