Billboard Hot 100: 11/06/2021

[kalmanta]

EOM‘s Spotify performance in the US is underwhelming so far. Big debut, although most of us had higher expectations, and it’s not holding up pretty well so far. That said, she slays Amazon and Apple charts, so it balances her somewhat „underperformance“ on one platform out.

[Enigma.]

I don't think she slays AM more than Spotify in terms of numbers.

[phieaglesfan712]

Oct 24, 2021 8:09:30 GMT -5 jdanton2 said:

Monster Mash is the highest Halloween song on itunes at #28 and is discounted for the first time i think. Ghostbusters is #55 , This Is Halloween is #60 (also discounted),Thriller is #65, Somebody's Watching Me is #75 (also discounted).

I'm starting to wonder if Thriller is beginning to lose its stranglehold as the biggest Halloween song. Thriller only peaked at #44 in 2019 (after reaching #42 in 2013, the previous time Halloween was a Thursday), and #48 in 2020 (after reaching #45 in 2015, the previous time Halloween was a Saturday). What's interesting to note is that Leaving Neverland came out in 2019, and I'm wondering if that has contributed to the stalled momentum of Thriller in recent years.

Also, it will be interesting to see if Ghost becomes a recurring Halloween song in future years.

[Gary]

Thriller reentered in the top 50 6 times, did not reenter at all in 2016 or 2017


The differences in those numbers appears to be random not that HBO movie in 2019

[thegreatdivine]

Wants and Needs was released 233 days ago and it's currently #28 on US Apple Music and rising. I feel like long-term, streaming-wise, it'll perform like Yes Indeed and No Guidance, which Billboard recently revealed currently have over 1.4B and 1.3B US on-demand streams respectively. Wants and Needs will end the year with well over 400M US on-demand streams (somewhere around 430-450M streams). Only 10 other songs would have managed at least 400 US on-demand streams by the end of the year and they were all major singles. Wants and Needs will be the only other song to reach the mark without being pushed as a single. Incredible.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/10/24

1(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 112.19(-0.08)
2(=) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 91.20(-0.42)
3(=) Lil Nas X & Jack Harlow - INDUSTRY BABY 84.46(+0.33)
4(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 75.45(-0.29)
5(=) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 74.48(+0.30)
6(=) Måneskin - Beggin 68.98(+0.38)

7(=) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 66.86(-0.28)
8(+1) Adele - Easy On Me 65.01(+1.03)
9(-1) Dua Lipa - Levitating 64.87(+0.48)
10(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More f/Sza 61.58(-0.77)

13(+1) Doja Cat - Need To Know 51.12(+0.71)

15(+1) Ed Sheeran - Shivers 47.92(+0.54)

24(+3) Elton John & Dua Lipa - Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 33.77(+1.14)

21(+3) Zac Brown Band - Same Boat 35.12(+0.57)

27(+1) Luke Combs - Cold As You 32.87(+0.54)

31(+1) Dustin Lynch - Thinking 'Bout You (feat. MacKenzie Porter) 30.01(+0.57)

40(+2) Lil Nas X - THATS WHAT I WANT 27.06(+0.60)

73(+3) Coldplay X BTS - My Universe 18.12(+0.86)

[thegreatdivine]

dremolus - solarpunk Thriller is a timeless bop so I don't mind it having a resurgence every Halloween. The song is older than I am and it still GOES. Any song with that kind of longevity deserves everything.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Let's Go Brandon is #1 in iTunes. The video for it has been deleted by YouTube for medical misinformation and there's a TikTok challenge. Lets Go Brandon didn't quite have that.

[Gary]

Thriller Chart History

Nov 4, 2020 10:09:13 GMT -5 Gary said:

Thriller, Michael Jackson 

Hot 100 chart run

wks pos date

1     20     2/11/1984
2     7     2/18/1984
3     5     2/25/1984
4     4     3/3/1984
5     4     3/10/1984
6     6     3/17/1984
7     11     3/24/1984
8     15     3/31/1984
9     23     4/7/1984
10     47     4/14/1984
11     69     4/21/1984
12     77     4/28/1984
13     96     5/5/1984
14     99     5/12/1984
15     42     11/16/2013
16     35     11/15/2014
17     45     11/21/2015
18     31     11/10/2018
19     44     11/9/2019
20    48   11/14/2020


Recurrent chart run


1     24     11/12/2005
2     17     11/19/2005
3     18     11/11/2006
4     22     11/18/2006
5     30     11/17/2007
6     27     11/8/2008
7     1     11/15/2008
8     2     7/11/2009
9     3     7/18/2009
10     3     7/25/2009
11     4     8/1/2009
12     12     8/8/2009
13     24     8/15/2009
14     21     11/7/2009
15     1     11/14/2009
16     8     11/13/2010
17     1     11/12/2011
18     28     11/10/2012
19     18     11/17/2012
20     19     11/9/2013
21     14     11/14/2015
22     1     11/19/2016
23     19     11/18/2017
24     17     11/7/2020

[fridayteenage]

Oct 24, 2021 10:38:54 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Let's Go Brandon is #1 in iTunes. The video for it has been deleted by YouTube for medical misinformation and there's a TikTok challenge. Lets Go Brandon didn't quite have that.

hmm, i just noticed that punctuation difference.

hopefully army or w/e can still block this thing from topping the digital chart. they did for fancy like and its eons on top of itunes.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Regardless of the difference. I don't care to find out if that's the only one or not. I guess I'll find out when it, unavoidably, makes the Hot 100.

[iHype.]

Seems like "Easy On Me" will decline 40-50% in streams & sales this week across the board, with airplay having moderate increase. Probably will get mid 400s in points for 2nd week #1.

[JukeboxJacob]

I knew Adele made a mistake choosing such a generic lead single

[phieaglesfan712]

Half of the Top 8 on iTunes right now is either Let’s Go Brandon or Cold Heart.

[Gary]

Adele singles in the past have shown longevity We are in the 4th quarter - traditionally a different pattern than the rest of the year. The album is not out yet

This song will appeal to a market different than <insert rap artist of the week> where the singles heavily streamed for a week then fade.

Might be too early to write this one off

[nathanalbright]

As always, time will tell, but we want to figure things out ahead of time.

[iHype.]

Tbh, Easy On Me is pretty much already not shaping to have the run of a monster hit with true longevity in many places even outside US.

It's already dropped out of #1 on Spotify in countries like France/Germany/Italy/etc (Europe is obviously just as big of a market for her as US). And it is taking huge losses on streaming like those Rap songs that stream heavy first week -- the saving grace for it on Hot 100 for the following weeks is the fact it's going towards 80 million audience on radio in under 2 weeks, whereas most Rap songs get little airplay in their first few weeks. If it was in that situation with little airplay then it'd already be close to losing #1.

Sound wise, I don't see this being a song that is gonna still be doing big numbers in 3 or 4 months either. But obviously, that's very much opinion and not objective.

I for one am not that shocked at the performance and think it's a good wake up call. People can finally stop acting like Adele is invincible from having music that does not destroy everything in sight and go Diamond. It was always an unrealistic unexpectation. People can start setting normal expectations for her music (inline of what they'd expect of other A-listers ala Taylor, Ed, Drake, etc. Not expecting her to do 5x more than them).

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

it's only been 10 days......

[nathanalbright]

We've seen this before many times.

[Gary]

yep the premature 'nail in the coffin' because of a drop in daily streams

Adele’s. Music will attract a wider audience that includes more than just the first week/first day streaming population.

[iHype.]

Oct 24, 2021 14:26:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

it's only been 10 days......

I mean to be fair 2 weeks is enough time in plenty, if not, majority of instances to tell where a pop artist's pre-album single is going. 

By the second week you get a general idea if it's going to absolutely stick around for a year and be a huge smash, have a decent run and be a nice sized hit, or is just falling and not going anywhere. 

It was clear Driver's License & Good 4 U were going to absolutely dominate 2021 and have a huge reign by the end of the second weeks. 
It was clear (Bieber's) Holy & Positions were going to have decent runs and be nice sized hits but not necessarily become signature hits.
It was clear Take My Breath, Your Power/Lost Cause, Yummy, ME! were probably going to flounder and weren't connecting. 

Easy On Me is between the second tier and third tier, but probably moreso second tier. It's going to have a decent run but won't follow her other #1's steps like people were expecting, and might not go down as one of 2021's most biggest smashes in the end despite the huge start. 

Blinding Lights is like maybe the only example I can think of in recent years, where a pop star's single was doubted by some after the first 2 weeks and then it just absolutely became a smash hit in the time following. Bad Habits was the opposite of EOM, had an underwhelming start and people thought it was going to flop during first week, but by the second week it was stabilizing hard and even reaching new streaming peaks so we could see it was clearly going to stick around by the second week and be a decent hit even if not Shape Of You sized, which it did end up doing. 

[GP]

Oct 23, 2021 15:44:19 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Oct 23, 2021 15:10:10 GMT -5 JukeboxJacob said:

I still think the chart would be better and more accurate without counting sales

I think, since same rules apply to h100/b200, if sales weren't counted the albums chart would be v. inaccurate in measuring popularity.

It is? I didnt know airplay counted for the BB200

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 23, 2021 15:10:10 GMT -5 JukeboxJacob said:

I still think the chart would be better and more accurate without counting sales

The way you’re okay removing entire demographics of people in the name of “accuracy”. What kind of accuracy do you mean though?

[Groovy]

Sales outside of streaming is the most accurate way to track what’s popular, sure it can easily be manipulated but it’s still consumer driven. I would say get rid of airplay if you want a more accurate chart.

[nathanalbright]

We've talked about this before. Airplay isn't going anywhere because it is one of the biggest ways in which labels can push the popularity of their acts.

[fridayteenage]

Oct 24, 2021 15:24:07 GMT -5 GP said:

Oct 23, 2021 15:44:19 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

I think, since same rules apply to h100/b200, if sales weren't counted the albums chart would be v. inaccurate in measuring popularity.

It is? I didnt know airplay counted for the BB200

are you advocating to count song streams on the album chart yet no song sales for the song chart, or am i misreading your intentions...?

also, per ukmix:
Album Sales 79 million
Song Sales 163 million

So song sales are actually still healthier than album sales. Unless your post was just to be pedantic ig.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Oct 24, 2021 14:54:24 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Oct 24, 2021 14:26:25 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

it's only been 10 days......

I mean to be fair 2 weeks is enough time in plenty, if not, majority of instances to tell where a pop artist's pre-album single is going. 

By the second week you get a general idea if it's going to absolutely stick around for a year and be a huge smash, have a decent run and be a nice sized hit, or is just falling and not going anywhere. 

It was clear Driver's License & Good 4 U were going to absolutely dominate 2021 and have a huge reign by the end of the second weeks. 
It was clear (Bieber's) Holy & Positions were going to have decent runs and be nice sized hits but not necessarily become signature hits.
It was clear Take My Breath, Your Power/Lost Cause, Yummy, ME! were probably going to flounder and weren't connecting. 

Easy On Me is between the second tier and third tier, but probably moreso second tier. It's going to have a decent run but won't follow her other #1's steps like people were expecting, and might not go down as one of 2021's most biggest smashes in the end despite the huge start. 

Blinding Lights is like maybe the only example I can think of in recent years, where a pop star's single was doubted by some after the first 2 weeks and then it just absolutely became a smash hit in the time following. Bad Habits was the opposite of EOM, had an underwhelming start and people thought it was going to flop during first week, but by the second week it was stabilizing hard and even reaching new streaming peaks so we could see it was clearly going to stick around by the second week and be a decent hit even if not Shape Of You sized, which it did end up doing. 

I think we all can agree that when she was choosing a song for the lead single, she was literally choosing a song that would be a #1 song everywhere. The week when Adele drops, that week is only hers, no matter what.

EOM did its thing the first week: 250M streams WW, it broke 2 huge Spotify records, it's #1 in 15 countries so far, has more than 1M SPS WW, it's the first song to debut in the top 10 of radio in 10 years and it literally debuted in the US and Canada after just 5 hours.
Now it's the song's turn.

Personally, I like EOM, I just think it's not the best song for her lead single, especially after 6 years, and if anything, the song is here to "blame", not Adele or her power.

If we talk about Adele's single(s), I don't think anyone expects longevity. Just look at Hello. In the US, almost 3 million downloads in 6 weeks and it peaked on radio after only one month. Not to mention that "25" sold 8 million copies in that same period. It's almost impossible for her songs to have longevity on charts.

So far, I don't see anything that could be a wake-up call for her.

EDIT: I should've replied to your previous post, I pretty much agree with everything in this one.

[kimberly]

I think when 20 million people listen to your song on its first full day, it's going to be hard to keep that momentum. Unlike those other examples, it was clear from the beginning that "Easy On Me" wouldn't "stabilize" where it started. It was destined to lose steam.

I will say that her share of US streams is weaker than expected, but I imagine this might be a result of her numbers not translating well into the streaming era. I'd think her fans stream less music in general compared to acts like Ariana Grande, Drake, Justin Bieber etc. In the sales era, all listeners were equal. Now, there is a difference between someone that streams a song 10 times a day vs. 2 times in a week, and the discrepancy does actually impact where songs end up on the charts.

"Easy on Me" will likely end up with 3-5 weeks at #1, which is 3-5 times better than what Ariana, Drake, & Taylor have done with their most recent comebacks. She'll be fine.

[iHype.]

Oct 24, 2021 16:37:27 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

I think we all can agree that when she was choosing a song for the lead single, she was literally choosing a song that would be a #1 song everywhere. The week when Adele drops, that week is only hers, no matter what.

EOM did its thing the first week: 250M streams WW, it broke 2 huge Spotify records, it's #1 in 15 countries so far, has more than 1M SPS WW, it's the first song to debut in the top 10 of radio in 10 years and it literally debuted in the US and Canada after just 5 hours.
Now it's the song's turn.

Personally, I like EOM, I just think it's not the best song for her lead single, especially after 6 years, and if anything, the song is here to "blame", not Adele or her power.

If we talk about Adele's single(s), I don't think anyone expects longevity. Just look at Hello. In the US, almost 3 million downloads in 6 weeks and it peaked on radio after only one month. Not to mention that "25" sold 8 million copies in that same period. It's almost impossible for her songs to have longevity on charts.

So far, I don't see anything that could be a wake-up call for her.

EDIT: I should've replied to your previous post, I pretty much agree with everything in this one.

I mean tbh, how is going from 5 million+ to 1.6 million on Spotify in 10 days not a bit alarming? With all this airplay and playlisting. Definitely not ideal.

The performance so far kind of reminds me of how Look What You Made Me Do & Toosie Slide did, huge out the gate with big expectations, but then yeah. 

The only difference is this is way more radio-friendly than they were, so maybe it won't completely be thrown out of rotation just as fast as it was added in.

[kindofbiased]

I feel like Easy On Me started off so huge that once it got to any normal level of popularity it would look like it was failing when it's really not? Personally I'm not worried about it at all especially when it's definitely got more boosts coming with that live performance + the album next month (plus any other gigs she does with it in the future like SNL or something)