Billboard Hot 100: 07/16/2022

[jasper0102]

Jul 11, 2022 12:47:23 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Yikes at Big Energy re-entering the Top 10. These charts really need some freshening.

I highly doubt you can say that to a top 10 where most of the songs haven’t been on the Hot 100 for anymore than 15 weeks, and we’ve had enough “freshening” from the past 2 months of album bombs anyway.

[degen]

Jul 11, 2022 12:54:20 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

It's hard to do the math without knowing the breakdown of streams, but treating all streams the same:

“As It Was”
73.4 million impressions = 122.333
18 million streams = 126
5,000 sold = 10
TOTAL - 258.333

“About Damn Time”
83.2 million impressions = 138.666
12.5 million streams = 87.5
8,000 sold = 16
TOTAL - 242.166

"About Damn Time" getting a couple thousand more in sales off a discount isn't going to get it to #1 unless it closes the gap in general. Of course it also depends which song is getting more paid streams since they count more.

If only Lizzo’s album dropped this week instead of next week, the ducks would’ve been perfectly aligned. Now I’m worried the album release is coming too late and by then Kate Bush or even Beyonce with a viral video could put a stop to her hitting #1.

[rimetm]

Building off my estimates from Friday with the official figures, this is where the 4 songs with full profiles seem to be point-wise. I'm not confident about "About D--n Time"'s chances for the chart dated the 23rd, and honestly, if the boost from Special isn't significant on streaming, I'm not entirely sure it has a good shot for the chart dated the 30th either.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 11, 2022 13:07:42 GMT -5 degen said:

Jul 11, 2022 12:54:20 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

It's hard to do the math without knowing the breakdown of streams, but treating all streams the same:

“As It Was”
73.4 million impressions = 122.333
18 million streams = 126
5,000 sold = 10
TOTAL - 258.333

“About Damn Time”
83.2 million impressions = 138.666
12.5 million streams = 87.5
8,000 sold = 16
TOTAL - 242.166

"About Damn Time" getting a couple thousand more in sales off a discount isn't going to get it to #1 unless it closes the gap in general. Of course it also depends which song is getting more paid streams since they count more.

If only Lizzo’s album dropped this week instead of next week, the ducks would’ve been perfectly aligned. Now I’m worried the album release is coming too late and by then Kate Bush or even Beyonce with a viral video could put a stop to her hitting #1.

If Lizzo thinks she’s going to fall a little short of the #1, she can send out a limited edition digital download with alternative cover of ADT to secure the #1.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

D--m it!!

[dodgerslakers94]

I’m just glad As It Was remained at #1 this week. Idc what happens next week on the charts. 🙂

[Groovy]

I said this in another thread but this doesn't feel right. 

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Feels perfect!

Woman! Woman woman woman! Let me be your woman! Woman woman woman!

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

How much in audience would Kate have needed to reach the summit?

[rihannabiggestfan]

Jul 11, 2022 14:13:15 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I said this in another but this doesn't feel right. 

Neither of those feel right to me tbh, but apparently her songs with a lower peak have more longevity than her top 3s

(and Get Into It (Yuh) having the longest rise to the top 40 on Hot 100 for a solo woman, wow)

[85la]

Jul 11, 2022 12:46:13 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

this is my 9/11

???

[woods]

Jul 11, 2022 14:13:15 GMT -5 Groovy said:

I said this in another thread but this doesn't feel right. 

Great job

[phieaglesfan712]

An argument can be made that Woman is Doja’s biggest hit. Don’t forget that the only time Doja went to #1 on Artist 100 was the random week when Woman peaked, NOT when Say So went to #1, Kiss Me More came out, or even when it peaked the week Planet Her was released.

[degen]

Jul 11, 2022 14:32:36 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

An argument can be made that Woman is Doja’s biggest hit. Don’t forget that the only time Doja went to #1 on Artist 100 was the random week when Woman peaked, NOT when Say So went to #1, Kiss Me More came out, or even when it peaked the week Planet Her was released.

“Woman” only is her longest running hit because it was one of the last ones to officially become a single. I would not call it her biggest hit. Its chart life pre-dated when it officially became a push single. I’d still argue “Need to Know” and “Kiss Me More” are bigger hits.

[sheardbeard]

Wowie 🤘🏻🤘🏻

[kimberly]

Jul 11, 2022 14:54:50 GMT -5 degen said:

Jul 11, 2022 14:32:36 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

An argument can be made that Woman is Doja’s biggest hit. Don’t forget that the only time Doja went to #1 on Artist 100 was the random week when Woman peaked, NOT when Say So went to #1, Kiss Me More came out, or even when it peaked the week Planet Her was released.

“Woman” only is her longest running hit because it was one of the last ones to officially become a single. I would not call it her biggest hit. Its chart life pre-dated when it officially became a push single. I’d still argue “Need to Know” and “Kiss Me More” are bigger hits.

"Woman" also has over 100,000,000 more streams on Spotify than "Need To Know," so I think it might be remembered as the bigger hit at the end of this album cycle. 
"Kiss Me More" is certainly bigger than "Woman" though so I don't know how one could come up with that other than our lovely phieaglesfan 

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 11, 2022 15:02:52 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Jul 11, 2022 14:54:50 GMT -5 degen said:

“Woman” only is her longest running hit because it was one of the last ones to officially become a single. I would not call it her biggest hit. Its chart life pre-dated when it officially became a push single. I’d still argue “Need to Know” and “Kiss Me More” are bigger hits.

"Woman" also has over 100,000,000 more streams on Spotify than "Need To Know," so I think it might be remembered as the bigger hit at the end of this album cycle. 
"Kiss Me More" is certainly bigger than "Woman" though so I don't know how one could come up with that other than our lovely phieaglesfan 

I didn’t say Woman was Doja’s biggest song. I only said an argument can be made for it. I still think Kiss Me More is her biggest song, but Woman is slowly catching it.

[Gary]

An argument could be made for any song being the "biggest hit" -- depends all on how you measure it

[leonagwen]

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or First Class.

[kimberly]

Jul 11, 2022 15:22:18 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or First Class.

yes leonagwen speak your truth! and where's "Bam Bam"?

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 11, 2022 15:22:18 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or Running Up That Hill.

FTFY

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Jul 11, 2022 15:22:18 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or First Class.

No? As It Was has 5M streams more than ADT. I can get behind RUTH, I think it's currently the biggest song in the US.

[Envoirment]

Shame Kate didn't get a new peak. Hopefully she'll manage to be somewhat stable in streams/sales whilst her airplay keeps building next week to maybe climb to #3 or #2. It looks like its best chance of challenging for #1 may be in a few weeks or so after Lizzo's album boost for "About Damn Time" fades and the song starts falling in airplay. Hopefully "As It Was" will also have fallen a bit more in airplay by then.

[phieaglesfan712]

The most amazing thing with About Damn Time’s run to #1 is that it is doing it the old fashion (pre-streaming era) way, with strong radio and sales. It almost reminds me of the Cheap Thrills run to #1.

[enwhy]

TBH, I don't see any way About Damn Time fails to reach #1 on the album release week. It's going to, at a minimum, get a modest boost in every metric. As It Was is continuing to decline as well. It would take a huge surprise drop for Lizzo to be blocked.

[rimetm]

The problem is that, while "As It Was" is slipping in consumption, it's also fortifying itself on radio. While it's not quite reflecting 1:1 on Luminate, the MediaBase numbers have the song actually beginning to rally again, challenging its audience peak. If that doesn't let "About D--n Time" build up a margin on the metric, then the consumption losses in the current tracking week will probably keep it from overtaking on the Hot 100, since it'll have more ground to cover with the album boost on the next week...

[rihannabiggestfan]

Jul 11, 2022 16:11:08 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

The most amazing thing with About Damn Time’s run to #1 is that it is doing it the old fashion (pre-streaming era) way, with strong radio and sales. It almost reminds me of the Cheap Thrills run to #1.

I personally love that tbh

[jenglisbe]

Why anyone uses sales as a current measure of anything is beyond me. "ADT" sold 8,000 copies last week and people are suggesting that means it should be #1?

Meanwhile the song I heard most last week was "I Say a Little Prayer" (it was in a scene YouTube suggested to me, was in an episode of Girlfriends I watched, and came on in a store) so I don't know why it's not #1!

[degen]

Jul 11, 2022 15:22:18 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or First Class.

How so tho? “As It Was” is STILL outstreaming both ADT and First Class, along with its stronghold at radio. If anything, it’s ADT that shouldn’t be at #1 yet because it’s being driven by Radio, while streams aren’t as strong. You guys love to flip the script to what ever narrative you want to mold. I see so many people constantly complaining about how Radio has too much influence on the Hot 100, yet if it’s someone you like benefitting off it you are all in for it.

[phieaglesfan712]

Jul 11, 2022 17:46:26 GMT -5 degen said:

Jul 11, 2022 15:22:18 GMT -5 leonagwen said:

I dont care what Billboard says but As It Was is not the biggest song in the country this week. It should be either About Damn Time or First Class.

How so tho? “As It Was” is STILL outstreaming both ADT and First Class, along with its stronghold at radio. If anything, it’s ADT that shouldn’t be at #1 yet because it’s being driven by Radio, while streams aren’t as strong. You guys love to flip the script to what ever narrative you want to mold. I see so many people constantly complaining about how Radio has too much influence on the Hot 100, yet if it’s someone you like benefitting off it you are all in for it.

The streaming gap between AIW and ADT that is reported by Billboard isn't representative of real life. Keep in mind that TikTok streams, where ADT clearly leads AIW, isn't counted in the Hot 100. If these streams were counted, you would see the gap in streams between AIW and ADT shrink.