Christina Aguilera "The Voice Within" Predictions

[Ragin]

j said:

Well 95 adds is quite a shocker. Congratulations goes to Christina and the song.

I can't help but think that RCA is digging themselves deeper and deeper into a shithole due to her airplay. They payola one song, and then when it becomes a radio hit, everyone expects them to release a follow-up, so they do so. And to save the follow-up from flopping, they have to payola it too, and once that becomes another hit, everyone expects another follow-up, especially the crazed fans who want all the tracks released as singles. And that follow-up gets payolaed too, which forces them to release another single because if they don't, then people will think that the last single was payolaed. This will continue to happen until one day they wake up and realize "Where did our budget for the entire decade go?!"

Haha just kidding! Well, maybe only a little bit. It's just strange that many other artists can sell more albums without 5 big pop hits, and that all other artists who have 4 Top 20 pop hits all sell a lot more, except for Justin Timberlake and Pink. And a lot of people accuse songs from those two of receiving payola boosts too. If you look at the last two artists who had 4 Top 20 pop hits (Avril and Eminem), they both sold a lot more albums.

Just because an act doesn't sell 6 or more million albums doesn't mean their hits were the result of payola. The slow rise of Unwell and Bright Lights from matchbox Twenty are not indicative of payola, yet the album sales are stuck around #50 each week, the same as Christina and Justin.

Especially in the case of Christina, I think you are seeing a case where she is crossing over to the legitimate side of the music industry in that more of her fans are appreciating her voice and her talents rather then buying into the hype. Without hype, you don't see the same types of record sales numbers, but selling 4 million albums is still extremely successful.

[ListenToMe]

You said it right c670769. You're a smart guy. :)

And congrats to Christina and "The Voice Within" again!

[radiorules]

Oh come on, we all know it is hard to sell over 5 mllion copies in today's market. Just because Avril (a new artist) and Eminem (who had HUGE singles on EVERY FORMAT and a successful movie) sold more than 5 million albums, don't expect Christina and the others to do so as well. Avril Lavigne is a new artist who has an undecided future, so of course people are going to go out and buy her album, because she is new. Just like Christina's second album, Avril's next album won't sell as much as her first album because she already has her fans plucked out. But it's not like it's only Christina that it's happening to, look at Beyonce, she has had both of her singles go to #1 on 3 Different formats, yet her album is already exiting the top 20 even though she has the #1 single in the country, does that mean that "Baby Boy" was payolad? I don't think so. Or how about MB20, 3DD, and Justin Timberlake? They have all had a few huge hits lately and their albums are selling below Christina's. Christina is doing fine. If at the end of the Stripped Chart life Christina would have sold 4 million copies, that will be like Selling 6.5 million copies if it was 1999, that's pretty close to her sales of her first album.

[Sean]

It's not scientific... but the fact that she has also had every single go top 10 in the UK, Australia, throughout Europe etc. proves that there's not something fishy going on with radio airplay in USA.

[JCMF3]

For respect of the boards, I will even comment on radio rules trying to do some funky math to say 4 million CDs is the same as 6.5 million...

Anyways, I heard the song today on my pop station. When I first turned it on, I thought I was on my AC station listening to some Mariah Carey song. Yes, it sounded like something Mariah would have sung in the early 90s. After hearing the whole song, I was sort of left unsatisfied, probably because it did sound like a song I had heard from Mariah before. Beautiful had an instant impact on me, but this song just didn't hit me really. Great vocals, yes... great song... eh.

And what is it with the "girl power" songs lately from her? How about just an all-around good ballad and not focusing on the discrimination and "strifes" of women? Ugh...

[EvanJ]

JCMF3 said:

For respect of the boards, I will even comment on radio rules trying to do some funky math to say 4 million CDs is the same as 6.5 million...

Based on frequently adding up the sales of the Top 10, I'd say 4,000,000 now = 6,000,000 then is reasonable (and I'm not saying this as a fan and I'd apply the same curve to Britney or anybody else). Still, her current certification times 1.5 is 4,500,000 which isn't close to 8,000,000 for "Christina Aguilera." If I had to guess I'd say "Christina Aguilera" hasn't been certified since however long it was out equaling however long "Stripped" has been out (at the same number of weeks on chart). Does anyone know the most recent certification date for "Christina Aguilera"?

[radiorules]

Thanks Evan J, JCMF3 just likes to try and prove me wrong whenever he can even though it never works.

Here are the total sales from 2000, 2001, and 2002

2000: 785.1 Million (+3%)
2001: 762.8 Million (-3%)
2002: 681.0 Millon (-11%)
2003: ??

Sales in 2003 are expected to drop another 15%, so that means From 2000 to 2003, album sales have fallen -29%

Now lets say an album sold 6 Million in 2000, if you adjust that to today's terms and take away 29% of it's sales, that would mean the Album would sell 4.26 Million copies in today's terms.

[jimmy74747]

Norah Jones has gone 8x platinum and 50 Cent has sold 6 million copies, so I don't think that percantage matters. A really huge album will sell huge numbers.

Stripped, while successful, isn't nearly as successful as Christina Aguilera.

[laguy03]

I think her album sales are good but I think its weird that Justin Timberlake sold around the same amount for all the hype and airplay he got. I dont want to compare them, but I just find sales for todays artist are horrible.

[Luckie Starchild]

JCMF3 said:

And what is it with the "girl power" songs lately from her? How about just an all-around good ballad and not focusing on the discrimination and "strifes" of women? Ugh...

Gee, I don't think that's a very accurate interpretation...

[specialist]

JCMF3 said:

And what is it with the "girl power" songs lately from her? How about just an all-around good ballad and not focusing on the discrimination and "strifes" of women? Ugh...

amazing how easily some people forget Beautiful.

[EvanJ]

jimmy74747 said:

Norah Jones has gone 8x platinum and 50 Cent has sold 6 million copies, so I don't think that percantage matters. A really huge album will sell huge numbers.

Stripped, while successful, isn't nearly as successful as Christina Aguilera.

Let's compare certifications for the top albums released 1996-1999 and the top albums released 2000-2003:
1996-1999:
Shania Twain: "Come On Over" (19,000,000)
Garth Brooks: "Double Live" (15,000,000)
Santana: "Supernatural" (14,000,000)
Backstreet Boys: "Backstreet Boys" (14,000,000)
Backstreet Boys: "Millennium" (13,000,000)
Britney Spears: "...Baby One More Time" (13,000,000)
Dixie Chicks: "Wide Open Spaces" (12,000,000)
Matchbox 20: "Yourself Or Someone Like You" (12,000,000)
Jewel: "Pieces Of You" (11,000,000)
Soundtrack: "Titanic" (11,000,000)
Kid Rock: "Devil Without A Cause" (11,000,000)
The Top 10 have 134,000,000. Santana did well in the 2000s, if you take him out it goes down to 131,000,000.
2000-2003:
'N Sync: "No Strings Attached" (11,000,000)
Britney Spears: "Oops!...I Did It Again" (9,000,000)
Eminem: "The Marshall Mathers LP" (8,000,000)
Eminem: "The Eminem Show" (8,000,000)
Nelly: "Country Grammar" (8,000,000)
Linkin Park: "[Hybrid Theory]" (8,000,0000)
The Beatles: "1" (8,000,000)
Backstreet Boys: "Black And Blue" (8,000,000)
Norah Jones: "Come Away With Me" (7,000,000) (if it's 8,000,000 the RIAA hasn't updated that page yet, and another 1,000,000 wouldn't be a big deal)
Soundtrack: "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" (7,000,000)
That's 82,000,000. If you add in Santana who did well in the 2000s and take out of the albums tied for ninth and tenth, it goes up to 89,000,000. Even if you do that, from 131,000,000 to 89,000,000 is a 32.1 percent decrease, so the one-third decrease I used seems to be a good estimate. If you were to certify Shania's 2002 album for however much it has shipped it would provide a small increase for 2000-2003. Out of the artists listed 1996-1999, all of them are selling less now than they did then. Out of the artists listed in 2000-2003 who were around before 2000, two are selling more than they did then and two are selling less. The Beatles: "1" probably sold more than any of their albums released 1996-1999 if there were any, but it's because it's a greatest hits, and not because The Beatles got more popular (I didn't count The Beatles in the previous sentence). The "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" soundtrack must have artists who were making music before 2000 and who that was the most popular album they have appeared on, but I'm not counting it to compare the periods because it's not by one artist. I think Linkin Park or "1" could have gone diamond if it came one or two years sooner. I think if your best selling album currently was released 1996-1999, that will be your best selling album at the end of your career.
I hope I didn't skip any albums on the RIAA page beacuse I didn't know when they were released.

[j]

c670769 said:

Especially in the case of Christina, I think you are seeing a case where she is crossing over to the legitimate side of the music industry in that more of her fans are appreciating her voice and her talents rather then buying into the hype. Without hype, you don't see the same types of record sales numbers, but selling 4 million albums is still extremely successful.

Excuse me, "no hype"? Christina? :o We're talking about the same person here right? I simply don't see how you can claim that when she's out there flaunting her body in almost every opportunity that she gets.

It's not scientific... but the fact that she has also had every single go top 10 in the UK, Australia, throughout Europe etc. proves that there's not something fishy going on with radio airplay in USA.

Sean, you can't compare the rest of the world with the US. When Kylie was getting huge radio hits everywhere else in the world but not the US, did anyone claim that there was dis-payola for her in the US i.e. some labels paying to make sure her songs weren't played? Also, there are quite a number of countries that look to the US to gauge a song's popularity, especially when it comes to artists well-known throughout the world. I know for a fact that radio stations in Singapore follow very closely what's big and what's not in the US because they don't have their own Mediabase 24/7. So whether her singles are huge or not in the rest of the world is irrelevant. Jennifer Lopez also has a lot of big hits worldwide and that didn't stop anyone from accusing her songs of receiving payola.

EvanJ, you're not taking into account the possibility that those albums from 96-99 sold more simply because they're better. Also other factors like record labels' willingness to promote more than just 2-3 singles per album. That was certainly an important factor for the Shania Twain, BSB, Britney albums.

[ListenToMe]

#52, +572

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

ListenToMe said:

You said it right c670769. You're a smart guy. :)

And congrats to Christina and "The Voice Within" again!

I agree with c670769 also. Congrats to christina on her success with her new single despite me not liking it.

[specialist]

[quote author=j
link=board=pop&thread=1065759724&start=193#12 date=1067625397]I can't help but think that RCA is digging themselves deeper and deeper into a s**thole due to her airplay. They payola one song, and then when it becomes a radio hit, everyone expects them to release a follow-up, so they do so. And to save the follow-up from flopping, they have to payola it too, and once that becomes another hit, everyone expects another follow-up, especially the crazed fans who want all the tracks released as singles. And that follow-up gets payolaed too, which forces them to release another single because if they don't, then people will think that the last single was payolaed. [/quote]

...as if anyone outside places like this board and a few internet fan boards actually give a s**t or even KNOW about "payola".

she has hits just as genuinely as any average hitmaking artist. make of that what you will.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

YAY to Christina on another well-rounded hit! Once this song makes the Top 50, she'll be the first single since Eminem did it earlier this year to have five Top 50 hits from one album!

It's probably receiving payola but who really cares? I'm sure Beyounce is too, and probably 3 Doors Down and most others in the Top 50. Doesn't every song/artist get payola in the beginning as just a slight push?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I was informed that I never predicted how this song would do yet.

I'll say #18 on Pop and similar on AC.

[ryarboro]

<<<<Norah Jones has gone 8x platinum and 50 Cent has sold 6 million copies, so I don't think that percantage matters. A really huge album will sell huge numbers.

Stripped, while successful, isn't nearly as successful as Christina Aguilera.>>>

Hmm, I am not sure this is an accurate statement. While "Christina Aguilera" sold 8 million in the US, it only sold 4 million in the US. "Stripped" in the meantime has sold 3 million in the US, but upwards of 5 million outside the US in only one year.

Christina has been promoted MUCH less than she did in her first album (by her own admission and wants), and the videos for CHUD, Beautiful, and the Voice Within were nice, but not big budget, so I would say most of the money has been spent for her tour if anything else. Not to mention, Stripped still has lots life in the fact that the BRIT Awards, EMAs and Grammys are still to come. The fact that Avril Lavigne sold 5 million albums worldwide in 2003, makes me think that "Stripped" can top that 12 million with all those factors and be more commercially successful than her previous album. Its not doubt, more artistically successful.

[ryarboro]

whoops, I meant 4 million worldwide

[jond7699]

I think "Stripped" will be a big holiday seller. Especially with the release of TVW.

[irice22]

I think "Stripped" will be a big holiday seller. Especially with the release of TVW.

"Cruz" is just a perfect song for Christmas.... why didn't she release it? "The Voice Within" is still kind of growing on me, I never hated it, I just think it's a poor single choice.

[EvanJ]

j said:

EvanJ, you're not taking into account the possibility that those albums from 96-99 sold more simply because they're better. Also other factors like record labels' willingness to promote more than just 2-3 singles per album. That was certainly an important factor for the Shania Twain, BSB, Britney albums.

Well don't the Christina fans here think "Stripped" is better than "Christina Aguilera? "Christina Aguilera" sold more and the current album had more singles.

[xtinasnumerounofan]

Some people are already calling TVW a success both here and on LD. The song has yet to hit the top 50, I'd hardly call a top 50 miss a hit. Granted, it will definitely go top 50, but I would call anything less than top 30 a flop. Even though this is a fifth single, it is Christina Aguilera. I would like to think radio would put it where it belongs (#1 :)), but it is a fifth single off of an album that has had four big hits, so I'm going to predict a peak of #13, still beating the peak of "Dirrty", but missing the top 10. I don't know though mayhbe radio will give her yet another top 10 from STRIPPED, but it being a fifth release I just don't know. Now is the best time to release a ballad though, so top 10 isn't impossible, just IMO, highly unlikely.

[xtinasnumerounofan]

EvanJ said:

Well don't the Christina fans here think "Stripped" is better than "Christina Aguilera? "Christina Aguilera" sold more and the current album had more singles.

The majority of Christina fans agree that STRIPPED is infinitely better than her debut album. A few people on here may prefer her debut material, but the majority do favor the STRIPPED era, myself inclided. My original prediction over a year ago for STRIPPED was 4 million copies, it's getting closer and closer to 4 million every week, slowly but surely. Hopefully Grammy time and Christmas sales will give her a nice bost so she can reach her 4x platinum status sooner.

[jond7699]

EvanJ said:

Well don't the Christina fans here think "Stripped" is better than "Christina Aguilera? "Christina Aguilera" sold more and the current album had more singles.

I think "Stripped" is leaps and bounds ahead of her debut cd. You can tell she believes in her music now. And now Christina can express herself fully which in turn makes for better music. (atleast imo)

[radiorules]

Honestly, i never expected TVW to have this much gains so fast. I always though it wouldn't ever go passed +700 because its that type of song that climbs very slow, but it looks like it will in fact pass +700, i wouldn't be surprised if it's by tomorrow night!

[xtinasnumerounofan]

"The Voice Within" has craked the top 50 and is currently at #49. TVW's gains are close to +600. :) Great to see some early love for the song.

[ted11804]

I am starting to visualize this song at #1.

[j]

I haven't listened to pop radio in days for fear of accidentally hearing this song. I'm glad it made the Top 50 so fast - because it'll mean that it gets booted off the Top 40 into recurrentland one week earlier should it stay the full 20 weeks. I see a fast fall for it tho, but not as fast as some of J. Lo's singles or Me Against The Music. I dreamt last night that I woke up and saw its bullet go down from +500 to +20 overnight. Really.