agon666
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Post by agon666 on Feb 8, 2005 8:40:25 GMT -5
#18... +1416
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Post by ultramixmarv on Feb 8, 2005 9:42:48 GMT -5
I would like to know a few, that would be interesting. I haven't seen a song have +2000 in six days between two formats burn out in my life. Goo Goo Dolls had +1500 between two with Here Is Gone and that still did moderately okay. Disease had +1100, and yes burnt out, but this song is +900 ahead and already has hit more stations then either two did. I got to quit reading these posts i know they are driving me crazy with all the over analyzing. It will be a #1 hit and a gold track, that's all that matters. Its moving so fast up the charts by the time it does burn out it will already be #1 and heard by every creature not living under a rock. So maybe Rob can release 5 singles for a change like the Usher and Emenim, instead of Unwell & Bright Lights being the charts for a year a piece!!
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Feb 8, 2005 9:59:49 GMT -5
Remember that when it comes to charts, nothing is EVER sure and there's ALWAYS exceptions to the rule.
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No Brake$
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Post by No Brake$ on Feb 8, 2005 10:34:03 GMT -5
#18... +1416 I've never seen numbers near this on Hot AC, only a few times on POP
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Feb 8, 2005 10:51:26 GMT -5
I would like to know a few, that would be interesting. Ricky Martin - Livin' La Vida Loca - On pop and Hot AC. Madonna - Frozen - On pop - top 40 debut at #15 on pop and peaked at #7. Goo Goo Dolls - Here Is Gone - yes, it was a moderate hit for the band, but it exploded onto the scene (if I remember right, +1000 one week on HAC but couldn't manage a #1 spot). Madonna - Die Another Day - +2000 on pop one week!!!! That fell faster than Ashlee Simpson's career after SNL. *N Sync - Pop - +2600 for two weeks on pop radio. Fizzled out at #7. I maintain - the key to having a big hit on a format is to maintain longevity. That means a moderate climb up the chart and then a good rate of decent. Explosion onto formats like pop, RHY, and to a lesser extent HAC generally leads to less longevity for a single.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Feb 8, 2005 10:53:54 GMT -5
Here's a separate question - why isn't this song taking off on AAA radio? Granted, MB20 has lost some luster on that format in the last couple of years, but this song sounds like it could easily be played on AAA radio.
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Post by singingsparrow on Feb 8, 2005 13:13:03 GMT -5
Here's a separate question - why isn't this song taking off on AAA radio? Granted, MB20 has lost some luster on that format in the last couple of years, but this song sounds like it could easily be played on AAA radio. I don't think it's all that Triple A-friendly. But if this single becomes a mega-hit on mainstream radio, "Lonely No More" may likely surface onto the Top 20 of Triple A due to popularity, like Nickelback's "How You Remind Me" or Lifehouse's "Hanging By A Moment" Sincerely, Noah Eaton
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No Brake$
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Post by No Brake$ on Feb 8, 2005 14:45:07 GMT -5
Ricky Martin - Livin' La Vida Loca - On pop and Hot AC. Madonna - Frozen - On pop - top 40 debut at #15 on pop and peaked at #7. Goo Goo Dolls - Here Is Gone - yes, it was a moderate hit for the band, but it exploded onto the scene (if I remember right, +1000 one week on HAC but couldn't manage a #1 spot). Madonna - Die Another Day - +2000 on pop one week!!!! That fell faster than Ashlee Simpson's career after SNL. *N Sync - Pop - +2600 for two weeks on pop radio. Fizzled out at #7. I maintain - the key to having a big hit on a format is to maintain longevity. That means a moderate climb up the chart and then a good rate of decent. Explosion onto formats like pop, RHY, and to a lesser extent HAC generally leads to less longevity for a single. Ricky Martin was #1 at both formats Madonna-Frozen went to #4 Die Another Day went to #3 'N Sync was the band of the world at the time Goo Goo Dools your right. I still don't understand how any of those songs fizzled. Ricky Martin had two singles out at the same time, three charting at once, Rob won't do this. Madonna is well, Madonna Rob THomas is, THE GUY FROM MATCHBOX TWENTY
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Feb 8, 2005 15:34:16 GMT -5
Ricky Martin was #1 at both formats Madonna-Frozen went to #4 Die Another Day went to #3 'N Sync was the band of the world at the time Goo Goo Dools your right. Madonna's Frozen spent 15 weeks on the pop chart and Die Another Day 14 weeks, despite peaking in the top 5. Both achieved their peak positions in about a month's time, stalled, and then tumbled down the chart. To me, yes that is "fizzling" out. All hype to launch them to the top, only to fall short and tumble down rather quickly. Neither song went recurrent... Quick burnout rates. The Cup of Life only came onto the scene after Livin' La Vida Loca was peaking. The point was - people just grew sick of Livin' La Vida Loca after hearing it over and over again. Yes, and that is why these huge gains are coming in right now for this tune. And I'm not saying it is undeserving - the song really is very good. All I am countering is people's arguments in this thread and other threads that state that this song will be the #1 song of the year. I don't believe that because I don't think it will have great longevity, even on the HAC chart.
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Mega248
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Post by Mega248 on Feb 8, 2005 17:46:13 GMT -5
I agree that this isn't going to have anywhere near the longevity that "Unwell" or "Bright Lights" had. It will definitely go top 5 though, I'm not doubting that.
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NORTHCOAST
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Post by NORTHCOAST on Feb 8, 2005 17:47:32 GMT -5
I'm really surprised how my Hot AC station is hyping this song. They are even running commercials stating that their station continues to dominate Cleveland radio.... because they played Rob Thomas' LNM before any other station on February 1st at 3:20 p.m. I have never heard this or any station quote a date & time they've debuted a song before. It seems kind of unusual to me. Is it something your station does?
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Post by ultramixmarv on Feb 8, 2005 18:12:25 GMT -5
I agree that this isn't going to have anywhere near the longevity that "Unwell" or "Bright Lights" had. It will definitely go top 5 though, I'm not doubting that. Besides "Last Beatiful Girl" & "Downfall" which were both 4th single,no video releases after the cd had sold all they were gonna sell pretty much, All of Rob's song's have had longetivity...and I see no difference here!!
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Topay
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Post by Topay on Feb 9, 2005 0:04:56 GMT -5
Let's look back at the #1 songs so far this decade:
2000: "Everything You Want" - released toward the beginning of the calendar year (not too far into the new chart year); a huge #1 hit, excellent longevity
2001: "If You're Gone" - was sitting at #1 at the beginning of the chart year; slow descent helped this one
2002: "Wherever You Will Go" - reached #1 within a month of the chart year; spent the whole year in the Top 15
2003: "Unwell" - Long time at #1, released mid-winter, fairly slow descent (but not as slow as some of the others) as Hot AC radio began speeding up a little
2004: "This Love" - Also released mid-winter; timing was perfect for this one, being as the superior run of "The Reason" came onto the scene a couple months later in the year
2005: With Hot AC radio speeding up over the last few years, a whole year on may not be necessary to nab #1 of the year. Close to 40 weeks on may still be required, however. Statistically speaking, the #1 song of the year should be on the chart by the end of February. It's also an odd-numbered year, which has been Rob's forte. I'll go on a limb and predict Rob takes #1 for 2005.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 9, 2005 0:08:31 GMT -5
If Rob is #1 for the year at HAC, will this be the first time a solo artist had the year-end #1? Unless maybe Sherl/Alanis did at some point in the 90's?
Anyway, I think #1 for the year will be between Rob and Green Day.
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Topay
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Post by Topay on Feb 9, 2005 0:11:37 GMT -5
Anyway, I think #1 for the year will be between Rob and Green Day. Thanks for bringing up Green Day. That's an obstacle that Rob's gonna have that Maroon5 didn't last year. It's gonna take a fairly quick descent for Green Day (i.e. recurrent by September with Rob still in the Top 10) in order for Rob to pull it off.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 9, 2005 0:14:23 GMT -5
It's gonna take a fairly quick descent for Green Day (i.e. recurrent by September LOL! Oh gotta love HAC standards!
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Topay
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Post by Topay on Feb 9, 2005 0:21:31 GMT -5
LOL, Brightside!
I figure "Boulevard" is gonna be at its peak during late February and during March, when Rob hopefully (for his sake and for my hypothetical money's sake) takes over toward the end of March.
Here's Rob's path to #1 of 2005:
April: Rob's at #1, Green Day is hanging in the Top 5 May: Rob's still at #1, Green Day is set to leave the Top 5 June: Rob's still at #1, Green Day is in the 8-10 range July: Rob's in the Top 3, Green Day is in the 10-12 range August: Rob's in the 5-7 range, Green Day is nearing the recurrent border September: Rob's in the 8-10 range, Green Day has gone recurrent
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j
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Post by j on Feb 9, 2005 1:25:44 GMT -5
I must admit it sounds very interesting and different; however I have a lot of difficulty seeing this as a year-long Hot AC hit. Green Day has hit #1 on 4 charts and close to hitting #1 on a 5th Mediabase chart, so I think its Hot AC longevity and #1 status is guaranteed.
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No Brake$
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Post by No Brake$ on Feb 9, 2005 1:59:00 GMT -5
Green Day will only have one more song to do well on Hot AC, and that will be Wake Me Up When September Ends, so Boulevard will remain Top 10 for another 6 months minimum.
Rob Thomas will stay until summer, when he releases another hit, which who knows what it will be. What's strange, is that if he wants to release a "cold-weather" type song for his next release, he'll have to wait, because his songs will go into rotation way-too quickly.
The numbers are amazing, but too early to predict, however, it won't miss #1.
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JCMF3
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Post by JCMF3 on Feb 9, 2005 12:52:45 GMT -5
Lonely No More will not be #1 for the year on HAC. I predict that right now. The #1 song will likely be Green Day's Boulevard of Broken Dreams or another song coming out in the next month that will last on the chart forever.
I am actually quite shocked at how blinded some of our long time board members are by this song. We have all seen songs vault in their first few weeks and have a variety of results at later times. Why the super optimism?
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Feb 9, 2005 13:16:12 GMT -5
I am actually quite shocked at how blinded some of our long time board members are by this song. We have all seen songs vault in their first few weeks and have a variety of results at later times. Why the super optimism? Because they like Rob and the song... I dont think #1 for the year or even a week is guaranteed...but I do honestly think it will be a hit. A song doesnt have to be #1 for the year or multiple weeks during the year in order to be a hit...and honestly, I think forcing this song to HAVE to be that monster hit in order to be considered a hit is unfair to the song.
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Post by ultramixmarv on Feb 9, 2005 14:38:15 GMT -5
Lonely No More will not be #1 for the year on HAC. I predict that right now. The #1 song will likely be Green Day's Boulevard of Broken Dreams or another song coming out in the next month that will last on the chart forever. I am actually quite shocked at how blinded some of our long time board members are by this song. We have all seen songs vault in their first few weeks and have a variety of results at later times. Why the super optimism? I have never seen a song burst onto the hot ac chart like this ever!!! And on POP for regular old joe Rob thomas a near 1,000 bullet would be to Emenim a 3,000 bullet. That's why.... This is an event!!!!!!!!!
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Post by ultramixmarv on Feb 9, 2005 14:43:05 GMT -5
Because they like Rob and the song... I dont think #1 for the year or even a week is guaranteed...but I do honestly think it will be a hit. A song doesnt have to be #1 for the year or multiple weeks during the year in order to be a hit...and honestly, I think forcing this song to HAVE to be that monster hit in order to be considered a hit is unfair to the song. Agree, but I do say this is multiple weeks at #1. No one knows how long, it's more about timing than anything we all know that. It could go for 10+ weeks or spend 5, who cares but it will be a contender for #1 on Hot AC for the year I don't care what anyone says. I've never seen this board be right on very many predictions without changing them as they see the song moving up, which is easy to predict, Hey the songs at #4 now, I predicted #11, I'm changing my prediction to #3, man, anyone can do that, probably my dog could! LOL :) But anyway I'm just gonna set back and watch this one rise to #1 and not post anymore on this topic...........
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Post by bpciao on Feb 9, 2005 15:04:20 GMT -5
Agree, but I do say this is multiple weeks at #1. No one knows how long, it's more about timing than anything we all know that. It could go for 10+ weeks or spend 5, who cares but it will be a contender for #1 on Hot AC for the year I don't care what anyone says. I've never seen this board be right on very many predictions without changing them as they see the song moving up, which is easy to predict, Hey the songs at #4 now, I predicted #11, I'm changing my prediction to #3, man, anyone can do that, probably my dog could! LOL :) But anyway I'm just gonna set back and watch this one rise to #1 and not post anymore on this topic........... Im glad alot of us are excited at how the song's doing.... dont stop posting though, love everyone's insights!!
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agon666
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Post by agon666 on Feb 9, 2005 16:46:07 GMT -5
Madonna's Frozen spent 15 weeks on the pop chart and Die Another Day 14 weeks, despite peaking in the top 5. Both achieved their peak positions in about a month's time, stalled, and then tumbled down the chart. To me, yes that is "fizzling" out. All hype to launch them to the top, only to fall short and tumble down rather quickly. Neither song went recurrent... I bolded what I wanted to argue you against... Rob was NOT that hyped UNTIL the song was heard. Once the brilliance of this song shown through like bright sunlight shining through dark grey clouds on a somber day... (okay, I'm exagerating a little) THEN the hype poured out. It's a brilliant song, and, because it's Rob, I don't think it'll fizz out quickly. Sure a little more quickly then other #1's, but not like a stone. NOT the way your talking, which sounds like Ashlee Simpson on pop.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 9, 2005 17:18:52 GMT -5
I have to LOL @ everyone who thinks the song's bullet is this high based on hype. There's been NO hype on Rob's project until the song came out. People were not expecting this from him. This success came out of nowhere, not out of hype. Even someone like me, who's in the minority and knew Rob was coming out with an album, didn;t expect it to be a radio album. I was expecting a minor HAC hit with almost no media support. This bullet can't be compared to new singles from artists following up huge albums. This song is blowing up on quality alone, just like the good old days.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Feb 9, 2005 18:15:36 GMT -5
I think I predict a similar thing to happen to this song that happened to Jewel's 'Intution'... well, somewhat. A much faster rise but similar peaks and similar holding on (or lack thereof).
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No Brake$
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Post by No Brake$ on Feb 9, 2005 18:20:47 GMT -5
I think I predict a similar thing to happen to this song that happened to Jewel's 'Intution'... well, somewhat. A much faster rise but similar peaks and similar holding on (or lack thereof). Intuition went recurrent by the twenty week rule though, peak at #8 on POP and I believe at #6 on Hot AC. Anyways, yeah, I really think we need to acknowledge the fact that this song has it's own blood. Nothing like this has been released by anybody like Rob, it's impossible to predict what will happen. Anyways, I'm still going to say Hot AC #1 for at least 6 weeks, and POP #2 getting booted by the 20\20 rule. To be honest, I want it to fade a little quicker around June so Rob can have a good summer-vibed release, so basically, I guess I just want this to do well. As a matter of fact, I'm too the point where all I'm doing is constantly contradicting myself, therefore I'm probably going to stop typing.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Feb 9, 2005 19:49:44 GMT -5
I'm being skeptical in all the topics on this song because I don't think it's a good idea for people to scream #1 right away just because it has a huge bullet and it's a good song. It has been done many times before. Basically, I'm just trying to make sure that the people that have big predictions for this song stick to them and don't turn things around in 3 months in case their predictions aren't met... likewise for the burn factor and how people say the burn factor won't be high. It always happens that people get sick of a song quickly. Give this song maybe another 2 or 3 weeks before people will be coming thru the cracks saying how much it sucks a la boulevard of broken dreams.
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Post by ultramixmarv on Feb 9, 2005 21:21:12 GMT -5
I have to LOL @ everyone who thinks the song's bullet is this high based on hype. There's been NO hype on Rob's project until the song came out. People were not expecting this from him. This success came out of nowhere, not out of hype. Even someone like me, who's in the minority and knew Rob was coming out with an album, didn;t expect it to be a radio album. I was expecting a minor HAC hit with almost no media support. This bullet can't be compared to new singles from artists following up huge albums. This song is blowing up on quality alone, just like the good old days. right on!! :)
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