Billboard Hot 100: 09/04/2021

[kimberly]

Aug 22, 2021 4:43:33 GMT -5 kimberly said:

as someone who's enjoyed "Arcade" since it was a mere Eurovision candidate in early 2019, the FLETCHER remix is ass. it's such an obviously label-initiated collaboration (both Capitol Records artists), and FLETCHER completely ruins the vibe of the original. glad she's not being credited.

however, something sneaky has been done to combine the play counts of the versions on Spotify, unlike other big hits with remixes (such as "Levitating", "Truth Hurts", "Mood" etc.):

 

wait lmao it's now split like the others. my impact?? 

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 22, 2021 16:57:08 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Aug 22, 2021 16:51:44 GMT -5 samo🦕 said:

sure

(yes, they did say that it was headed for a top 50 debut, but that was specifically based on its first day of tracking)

sure

after 4 days of tracking they made this tweet. #35 debut..they were completely wrong all the week so stop supporting them..if you hate Winston, I have the right to hate talk of the charts cause they were wrong many times in the past!!

I can see both sides of the argument. Yes, TOTC did eventually get it right on Saturday when all the tracking week was over, but getting the prediction right on Saturday is almost like Monday Morning Quarterback. Anyone can make the correct prediction on Saturday with all the data in. It doesn't change the incorrect predictions they were making on the song earlier in the week. I'm not knocking on TOTC, and I would say the same thing if Ashres or Winston made an incorrect prediction on Tuesday, and changed it on Saturday.

[Au$tin]

Aug 22, 2021 4:43:33 GMT -5 kimberly said:

as someone who's enjoyed "Arcade" since it was a mere Eurovision candidate in early 2019, the FLETCHER remix is ass. it's such an obviously label-initiated collaboration (both Capitol Records artists), and FLETCHER completely ruins the vibe of the original. glad she's not being credited.

however, something sneaky has been done to combine the play counts of the versions on Spotify, unlike other big hits with remixes (such as "Levitating", "Truth Hurts", "Mood" etc.):

 

I've noticed this happens sometimes and I'd really like to know how and why. Katy Perry's "This Is How We Do" has a remix featuring Riff Raff (I know, I know) and for some reason both the remix and original show a combined total on Spotify as well. I've seen this a handful of other times too and as a stat nerd it irks me to no end. Glad to see it be finally separated out for Arcade.

Another one I can think of off the top of my head is one of the Hannah Montana songs from season 3 I believe. There's a version with and without David Archuleta, and they're combined. There's also some remix of a Kelly Clarkson song that has the remix, an a Capella version, and an instrumental all combined. Just... why?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Kind of random, but BTS' 2! 3! is currently #3 at iTunes.

Also, songs from Trippie Redd's new album aren't holding up well at Apple Music. Betrayal is the highest one at #19.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Aug 22, 2021 18:53:51 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 22, 2021 16:57:08 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

sure

after 4 days of tracking they made this tweet. #35 debut..they were completely wrong all the week so stop supporting them..if you hate Winston, I have the right to hate talk of the charts cause they were wrong many times in the past!!

I can see both sides of the argument. Yes, TOTC did eventually get it right on Saturday when all the tracking week was over, but getting the prediction right on Saturday is almost like Monday Morning Quarterback. Anyone can make the correct prediction on Saturday with all the data in. It doesn't change the incorrect predictions they were making on the song earlier in the week. I'm not knocking on TOTC, and I would say the same thing if Ashres or Winston made an incorrect prediction on Tuesday, and changed it on Saturday.

The reason why people hate Winston isn't because of his inaccurate predictions, it's that whenever he does, he acts like a diva.    

If Lukas or Ashres gets a prediction wrong, they accept it and are like "oh, we got it wrong". Whenever Winston gets a wrong prediction, he'll frame it to seem like he wasn't wrong and he was totally right. That's why other predictors hate him. It's simple as not taking accountability.

[Normi]

Do we really hate random people on the internet for getting some chart predictions wrong?

[edward]

Not y'all forgetting that he licked bts stan ass just for clout

[iamsorare]

Aug 22, 2021 23:15:30 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Aug 22, 2021 18:53:51 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

I can see both sides of the argument. Yes, TOTC did eventually get it right on Saturday when all the tracking week was over, but getting the prediction right on Saturday is almost like Monday Morning Quarterback. Anyone can make the correct prediction on Saturday with all the data in. It doesn't change the incorrect predictions they were making on the song earlier in the week. I'm not knocking on TOTC, and I would say the same thing if Ashres or Winston made an incorrect prediction on Tuesday, and changed it on Saturday.

The reason why people hate Winston isn't because of his inaccurate predictions, it's that whenever he does, he acts like a diva.    

If Lukas or Ashres gets a prediction wrong, they accept it and are like "oh, we got it wrong". Whenever Winston gets a wrong prediction, he'll frame it to seem like he wasn't wrong and he was totally right. That's why other predictors hate him. It's simple as not taking accountability.

Simm was also an awful character and he blocked many people but everyone praised him here when he used to make predictions

[bigolefreak]

Aug 23, 2021 2:15:21 GMT -5 Normi said:

Do we really hate random people on the internet for getting some chart predictions wrong?

apparently so

[phieaglesfan712]

Aug 23, 2021 4:24:40 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

Aug 22, 2021 23:15:30 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

The reason why people hate Winston isn't because of his inaccurate predictions, it's that whenever he does, he acts like a diva.    

If Lukas or Ashres gets a prediction wrong, they accept it and are like "oh, we got it wrong". Whenever Winston gets a wrong prediction, he'll frame it to seem like he wasn't wrong and he was totally right. That's why other predictors hate him. It's simple as not taking accountability.

Simm was also an awful character and he blocked many people but everyone praised him here when he used to make predictions

I wouldn't say Simm was awful, but he was definitely very polarizing. A lot of people praised him, but there were many that really disliked him. I never praised Simm because I felt he baited stan wars and was not as accurate as other predictors like fhas.

[aussie1]

Predictions means just that predictions. Of course they are going to get some wrong. They are predicting. They should always be taken with a grain of salt regardless of who is releasing them. And if you aren't happy with someones predictions, ignore them?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Aug 23, 2021 7:09:27 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

Predictions means just that predictions. Of course they are going to get some wrong. They are predicting. They should always be taken with a grain of salt regardless of who is releasing them. And if you aren't happy with someones predictions, ignore them?

I’ve never understood why people get so riled up over someone else’s predictions. It’s been a thing on here for a couple years even before there were Twitter accounts with large followings posting predictions each week.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2021/08/23

1(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 89.86(-0.11)
2(+1) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 88.54(+0.62)
3(-1) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More (feat. SZA) 88.16(+0.23)
4(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 80.69(-0.15)
5(=) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 76.78(-0.01)
6(=) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 65.89(-0.48)
7(=) The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber - STAY 64.51(+1.91)
8(=) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 56.59(-0.16)
9(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON) 50.73(-0.80)
10(=) Duncan Laurence - Arcade (feat. FLETCHER) 50.45(+0.40)

16(+1) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 42.44(+1.33)

34(+2) Wizkid - Essence (feat. Tems) 29.78(+1.01)

35(+3) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot S**t 29.02(+0.94)

48(+2) Lizzo & Cardi B - Rumors 25.66(+1.12)

88(+4) Måneskin - Beggin 15.44(+0.99)

-(-) Shawn Mendes & Tainy - Summer Of Love 11.44(+1.79)

-(-) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 11.39(+1.01) +

-(-) twenty one pilots - Saturday 9.93(+0.79) +

-(-) Tommy Torres - Marea 1.51(+1.39) +

[Groovy]

Looks like Bad Habits is the next number 1 on overall radio.

[jenglisbe]

How is "TMB" already top 10 at Top 40?!

[phieaglesfan712]

Blinding Lights dropped out of the AM ranks on this morning's update. Unless it gets added back on soon, it looks like BL will go recurrent after 89 weeks.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

On non-chart, music related news, Lil Nas X has been hired as Chief Impact Officer at Taco Bell.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

US Spotify - 08/22/21

1(=) The Kid LAROI - STAY 1,824,958 (-254,703)
2(=) Lil Nas X - INDUSTRY BABY 1,470,817 (-173,426)
3(=) Olivia Rodrigo - good 4 u 1,102,539 (-130,420)
4(=) Doja Cat - Need to Know 1,096,132 (-134,016)
5(=) Billie Eilish - Happier Than Ever 939,393 (-87,347)
6(=) Doja Cat - Kiss Me More 892,370 (-112,261)
7(=) Sleepy Hallow - 2055 746,472 (-70,036)
8(+1) Lil Nas X - MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 713,439 (-89,777)
9(-1) Ed Sheeran - Bad Habits 711,540 (-103,997)
10(=) Glass Animals - Heat Waves 691,673 (-85,588)

Trippie Redd - Trip at Knight
14(-1) Matt Hardy 999 610,926 (-93,212)
18(-4) Miss the Rage 563,711 (-124,978)
23(-8) Rich MF 529,080 (-147,766)
25(+9) Betrayal 498,088 (+24,184)
30(-5) Holy Smokes 451,455 (-117,956)
49(-18) Danny Phantom 361,492 (-148,139)
57(-22) MP5 342,588 (-127,896)
59(-20) Super Cell 333,865 (-123,880)
60(-17) Demon Time 328,182 (-117,213)
84(-35) Molly Hearts 287,901 (-123,790)
Total Streams: 4,987,862

Others:
11(=) Måneskin - Beggin' 644,642 (-92,763)
12(=) Dua Lipa - Levitating 629,863 (-105,797)
13(+4) Olivia Rodrigo - traitor 620,486 (-51,214)
15(+3) Doja Cat - Woman 598,801 (-58,255)
16(+3) Doja Cat - Ain't Shit 584,563 (-61,160)
17(+4) Olivia Rodrigo - deja vu 573,069 (-54,656)
19(+3) Doja Cat - Get Into It (Yuh) 559,587 (-60,432)
21(-1) Farruko - Pepas 547,798 (-93,105)
22(-6) Lizzo - Rumors 544,577 (-129,618)
24(-1) The Weeknd - Take My Breath 508,076 (-96,068)
26(=) Justin Bieber - Peaches 473,425 (-70,602)
27(=) Walker Hayes - Fancy Like 465,579 (-72,304)
29(-1) Megan Thee Stallion - Thot Shit 458,705 (-68,697)
31(+10) Surf Curse - Freaks 436,701 (-13,275)
32(+15) Steve Lacy - Dark Red 419,807 (-2,173)
34(-2) Post Malone - Motley Crew 415,192 (-64,026)
35(+2) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Leave the Door Open 406,303 (-58,362)
36(+2) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears Remix 401,735 (-62,163)
37(-1) Aventura, Bad Bunny - Volví 394,178 (-74,391)
38(-9) Skrillex - Don't Go 389,185 (-136,382)
39(+99) Blueface, Og Bobby Billions - Outside (Better Days) 384,506 (+128,747)
40(+6) Tai Verdes - A-O-K 383,962 (-42,928)
41(+12) Olivia Rodrigo - favorite crime 381,042 (-23,551)
42(+3) Bad Bunny - Yonaguni 378,566 (-58,504)
43(+13) PinkPantheress - Pain 377,995 (-16,362)
46(-13) Shawn Mendes - Summer of Love 374,598 (-103,929)
50(+2) Doja Cat, The Weeknd - You Right 360,979 (-45,074)
54(+10) Olivia Rodrigo - happier 345,056 (-23,405)
55(-4) Sueco - Paralyzed 343,611 (-63,124)
56(+3) Giveon - Heartbreak Anniversary 343,220 (-31,835)
58(-18) Lorde - Mood Ring 339,658 (-114,117)
61(+4) DJ Khaled - EVERY CHANCE I GET 323,452 (-43,765)
62(+6) The Kid LAROI - NOT SOBER 321,238 (-39,167)
63(+14) A-Wall - Loverboy 320,796 (-11,600)
64(+5) Smiley - Over the Top 314,792 (-45,479)
65(-8) Clinton Kane - I GUESS I'M IN LOVE 312,953 (-73,848)
67(+4) Jack Harlow, Pooh Shiesty - SUVs (Black on Black) 308,139 (-44,512)
70(-20) Young Thug - Tick Tock 307,145 (-101,359)
71(-13) Ed Sheeran - Visiting Hours 306,886 (-71,331)
72(+6) Måneskin - I WANNA BE YOUR SLAVE 305,622 (-25,084)
80(-17) Dream, Alec Benjamin - Changed My Clothes 293,221 (-75,261)
81(-8) Marshmello - Leave Before You Love Me 291,338 (-48,374)
85(+12) PinkPantheress - Just for me 286,095 (-11,554)
86(-1) DaBaby - Ball If I Want To 283,061 (-37,761)
87(+6) BTS - Butter 280,902 (-24,492)
88(+19) Yot Club - YKWIM? 277,326 (-8,167)
90(-23) Lorde - Solar Power 275,389 (-87,509)
91(-1) Lil Tecca - REPEAT IT 275,379 (-38,352)
92(-3) YNW Melly - Mind of Melvin 271,034 (-42,991)
99(+9) Tyler the Creator - WUSYANAME 264,457 (-17,854)

108(+21) Eslabon Armado, DannyLux - Jugaste y Sufrí 250,003 (-10,581)
110(-31) Lorde - Stoned at the Nail Salon 246,700 (-83,706)
117(+13) Roddy Ricch - Late At Night 239,847 (-20,342)
122(-6) Camila Cabello - Don't Go Yet 235,933 (-39,361)
126(+36) Beach House - Space Song 234,986 (+2,062)
127(-12) Nio Garcia, J Balvin, Bad Bunny - AM Remix 234,305 (-44,352)
129(+6) Jordan Davis, Luke Bryan - Buy Dirt 231,130 (-26,409)
130(-11) Bruno Mars, Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic - Skate 230,585 (-39,818)
131(-25) Rod Wave - Already Won 230,075 (-55,891)
133(-28) Kane Brown - One Mississippi 229,768 (-57,502)
136(+7) The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 226,622 (-22,176)
138(-5) Blxst, Tyga - Chosen 225,733 (-32,534)
141(-10) BIA - WHOLE LOTTA MONEY Remix 225,000 (-34,854)
150(-64) Lorde - The Path 218,121 (-102,665)
156(=) Lil Baby, Lil Durk - Hats Off 212,390 (-22,547)
162(-67) Lorde - California 209,070 (-89,884)
164(=) MoneyBagg Yo - Wockesha 207,295 (-23,572)
167(+8) BTS - Permission to Dance 205,775 (-20,773)
170(+6) Nessa Barrett - i hope ur miserable until ur dead 205,075 (-21,444)
171(-3) Dua Lipa - Love Again 203,899 (-26,368)
181(-71) Lorde - Secrets from a Girl (Who's Seen it All) 197,406 (-83,011)
190(+1) Sheff G - On Go 194,064 (-23,213)
192(debut) PinkPantheress - Just a waste 193,247
193(-6) Jason Aldean, Carrie Underwood - If I Didn't Love You 193,169 (-25,607)
199(-12) Elle King, Miranda Lambert - Drunk (And I Don't Wanna Go Home) 191,786 (-27,555)

Total Streams for Save Your Tears: 628,357

Biggest Gains (50K+): Outside (Better Days)

[jred]

Didn’t realize how poorly “Skate” was doing on Spotify. That’s disheartening.

[thegreatdivine]

[dremolus - solarpunk]

ALL I DID WAS TRY MY BEST

THIS THE KINDA THANKS I GET?!?

[Deleted]

Aug 22, 2021 18:53:51 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Aug 22, 2021 16:57:08 GMT -5 iamsorare said:

sure

after 4 days of tracking they made this tweet. #35 debut..they were completely wrong all the week so stop supporting them..if you hate Winston, I have the right to hate talk of the charts cause they were wrong many times in the past!!

I can see both sides of the argument. Yes, TOTC did eventually get it right on Saturday when all the tracking week was over, but getting the prediction right on Saturday is almost like Monday Morning Quarterback. Anyone can make the correct prediction on Saturday with all the data in. It doesn't change the incorrect predictions they were making on the song earlier in the week. I'm not knocking on TOTC, and I would say the same thing if Ashres or Winston made an incorrect prediction on Tuesday, and changed it on Saturday.

This is such an odd tack to take. Of course a prediction is going to be more accurate when you wait for all the data to come in. That is literally the point of waiting for all the data lmao, it's why we never get the full 100-chart prediction from them until the weekends - which is still 1 1/2 to 2 full days earlier than the Hot 100 ever drops. I think some chart predictor watchers forget that these accounts are not playing real games for real prizes. No one is getting bonus money for guessing chart positions on a Tuesday instead of Friday, and the majority of people following and replying to their (or any predictor account's) tweets do not care about having to wait for the full data to get the tightest prediction possible.

That's actually a really important thing that I think some chart nerds forget or overlook - we are not these predictor accounts' sole or even largest audience anymore. Stan Twitter is now their biggest audience, and most of stan Twitter can't even find all the data that goes into a chart prediction, let alone put it together in a correct formula. Those midweek projections are just easy follower-engagement tweets.

Follower engagement aside, it is not uncommon for TOTC to make broad predictions early and then adjust its predictions throughout the week, and I think that is normal/should be expected because song trajectories are not static. It's basically the predictor equivalent of a rolling chart and also not too far removed from the midweek updates that UK's Official Charts give. Bad Habits for example was predicted to be "challenging for the top 10" after its first full day, then later on in the week TOTC came back to say that it was looking at a top 5 debut. Wild Side just stands out because TOTC made two or three tweets about it before their final top 15 prediction and the change from the initial top 50 prediction was so drastic. I think Wild Side held up better throughout the week and/or was more back heavy than most expected, which is why TOTC had to keep adjusting the position up. They may have also waited until the end of the week to add in the website sales, which would have been a 20-30 point swing.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Slight chart related note, even taking out singer-songwriters and more alternative, experimental acts, it's insane how women have been ruling pop punk and pop rock this year (quality wise I mean. Radio stations in alt and rock are a sausage fest)

[iamsorare]

[gikem]

“Selena Gomez and Camilo doing a Juice WRLD tribute collab” was not on my 2021 bingo card. /j

[kindofbiased]

Lmao I’m like 90% sure the mall scenes in the Brutal music video were filmed at my childhood mall, we both live in Southern California so there’s a decent chance it was 😭

[85la]

Aug 23, 2021 12:03:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

ALL I DID WAS TRY MY BEST

THIS THE KINDA THANKS I GET?!?

I have to say this is such an odd and puzzling marketing move to make. Why make and release a video for a song that isn't even a single yet before even coming out with a video for your current single?!! It just seems like a no-brainer, and can't see how this can do anything but harm the era. I remember the Weeknd did the exact same thing during the Starboy era, though can't remember the exact songs (might have been when I Feel It Coming was a single and they released a video for Reminder first).

[phieaglesfan712]

Despite its falling on radio and AM, BL is somehow predicted to move back into the Top 20 next week:

[suzcruz7]

At this point I'm convinced Olivia can do whatever she wants and it'll be successful. Go crazy. Give every song a music video. Take up 10% up of the Year End by yourself.

[atg]

Aug 23, 2021 14:04:18 GMT -5 85la said:

Aug 23, 2021 12:03:52 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

ALL I DID WAS TRY MY BEST

THIS THE KINDA THANKS I GET?!?

I have to say this is such an odd and puzzling marketing move to make. Why make and release a video for a song that isn't even a single yet before even coming out with a video for your current single?!! It just seems like a no-brainer, and can't see how this can do anything but harm the era. I remember the Weeknd did the exact same thing during the Starboy era, though can't remember the exact songs (might have been when I Feel It Coming was a single and they released a video for Reminder first).

Considering Olivia is the biggest pop star with the biggest streaming album at the moment, she can promote anything and it’ll still do some decent numbers. traitor is doing well on streaming and getting started on radio so if she wants to promote brutal, it would do just fine.